MA-Sen:

Thank God we've been spared the second coming of Dukakis.

I didn't know who Kirk was until today, but he seems like a perfect placeholder for the seat.  

---

by: notanothersonofabush @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 19:04:35 PM UTC

I would like to see Dukasis appointed

It's not like he will use it as a jump board to run for President in 2016.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 19:06:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dukakis cares about Amtrak

Not many politicians can make the claim that they really know or care about passenger rail. Dukakis can. He served for years as a Democratic rep on Amtrak's board.

Currently Amtrak operates under a 'temporary' CEO whose term expires in a couple of months, the fourth to serve under the eight years of George W. Bush. Now Amtrak needs a plan for the next decade. It needs to find a role in the high-speed rail initiatives. And it needs to spend a few billion on an order for hundreds if not thousands of new passenger rail cars to replace its obsolescent fleet and to be ready to expand services. Having a powerful friend in the Senate like Dukakis could help Amtrak get on the right track.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:28:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Was Dukakis ever really interested in the first place?

He's always been adamantly devoted to his work as Professor at Northeastern University, and in interviews, consistently kicked to the curb any possibility of him returning to politics.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:10:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I believe he expressed interest

But only in the temporary appointment.

---

by: NJCentrist @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 02:38:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Ray LaHood quits in 2012

Dukakis would be a logical choice to replace him.

Frankly, any SOT is better than Liddy Dole, whose signature priority during her entire tenure was all-out war on Amtrak. If Amtrak is a shadow of what it used to be now, it's mostly her fault. Bush certainly didn't help it, but even he was better than Liddy Dole. I'm so glad she's finally out of politics for good. (Thank you, North Carolina!)

The problem is that for passenger rail to be half as effective as it needs to be, the government needs to own the tracks, instead of the freight companies. Otherwise passenger trains will still have to adhere to that idiotic "freight always goes first at any crossing" rule that's at the heart of why Amtrak never runs on time. Repeal that stupid rule by itself and do a better job of advertising train service afterward, and ridership will go up. (It's not just the budget - it's the fact that nobody knows or cares that Amtrak exists. The government really needs to be more proactive in advertising for it, but not until the freight companies have been put back in their place.)  

---

by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 17:00:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll take some credit

For voting for Kay Hagan in 2008.  


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 19:24:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Update

Congress changed the rewards and penalties for the freight railroads effective Nov. 2008, iirc. Since then, month after month, Amtrak's on-time performance has improved overall, and quite dramatically on some routes.

Of course, the freight operators like to point to other factors, as well. Obviously the recession has ended crowding on the rails. And on some stretches, notably Kansas City to St Louis, various pieces of track improvements have come online after a period of construction. There the on-time rate has gone from 60% or so to better than 90%.

That Missouri route shows how a few fixes -- double-tracking sections or adding sidings, new bridges, straightening some curves -- can give a hefty improvement in speed and reliability. Amtrak has been starved of investment for years, but an extra billion a year or so could make a huge impact on its system.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Sun Sep 27, 2009 at 01:53:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just as long as Kirk isn't a BlueDog-type, or a DLC-type.

It's only a 3½ month gig, but this is an important 3½ months.

---

by: homerun @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:58:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Found This

Found this on Wikipedia (it did have a book/source cited, Southern Democrats, 1994):

In 1985, Kirk was elected as chairman of the DNC despite opposition from Virginia Governor Chuck Robb and a group of southern state Democrats who went on to form the Democratic Leadership Council.

From the book, Southern Democrats:

Robb's efforts did not allay the persistent criticism of the DLC by the party's establishment, which viewed its activities with a great deal of suspicion.  The relationship between the DLC and the party's national committee was particularly tense, since the DLC's founding fathers had been opposed to Paul Kirk's election as national party chairman in 1985.  Kirk directly challeneged the DLC's aspiration to be the fount of new ideas in the party, by establishing his own "Democratic Policy Commission," headed by former Utah Governor Scott Matheson, to debate Democratic policy positions on a variety of issues.  The DLC leadership remained mistrustful of the national committee as a bastion of "liberal fundamentalism."  Yet despite the institutional rivalries, Kirk's view of the party's future direction did not differ essentially from that of the DLC, as was demonstrated when he abolished the party's "midterm conference" (which he viewed as a media showcase for the militant single-issue activists) and the national committee's caucuses for women and minorities.  Kirk further ensured that the so-called superdelegate slots for elected officials and party leaders were retained for the 1988 convention.

---

by: TXObserver @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:26:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Kennedys have all endorsed him, so he's not gonna flake out on health care,

and should be reliable on capntrade and the rest of it.  

I'd prefer Dukakis, just because I feel the entire process appears more legitimate, and more likely to be imitated elsewhere, if the person who gets the appointment is well-known in the state, well-regarded, and clearly at the end of their career.  Appointing some mysterious insider that no one has ever heard of does little to endear people to the new process Mass has adopted, which I'd like to see every state adopt.

But, you know, Paul Kirk, whatever.  Vicki's opinion is going to count more than mine on this matter.  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

---

by: texas dem @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 23:34:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Robert Reich

Saw his name come up as a possible appointee.

---

by: TXObserver @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:34:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would vote for Scozzafava

Declaring it now. I'd probably donate to her as well. Bill Owens is an inexperienced nobody and in some ways he appears like he might be more conservative than her.

More than anything a voice like her's is something I'd like to see return to the national discourse, really badly, especially in the Republican party. Note, that her criticism in a nutshell, can also be seen as a criticism of the entire win elections by attacking the opponent strategy they have run the last two decades.

On a random note, I just thought of this. Britain is supposed to be a sort of seat of etiquette and you know America is the rough edged wilder colony, like Australia. In that sense it strikes me odd that Britain has no sense of etiquette or respect or even deference in its Parliament or national political scene.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 19:05:50 PM UTC

I might too if I lived in teh district

I really don't want Scozzafava to win, but Owens seems like he is worthless and not someone that I would like to protect during redistricting.  I also do not think Scozzafava could win a GOP primary in 2010, so hopefully she gets primaried out and we get a better candidate.

My only concern is if Scozzafava is still around in 2012, she could be a problem for Arcuri or Murphy.  But even then, I think a Conservative candidate would win it for the Dem.

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 19:14:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I feel she might switch

parties before being primaried by the likes of the primary soon to face her and even if she is still around her district doesn't have to be one of those eliminated.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 19:17:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's the most likely one though

New York's population loss has been coming disproportionately from upstate, so there's no way that the eliminated district isn't from upstate.

An incumbent protection map would likely eliminate the member with the least seniority (which would be the winner of NY-23), while a Democratic map would eliminate either Lee's district or NY-23 (if the Democrats don't take the district).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 19:42:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not certainly

Peter King'd district can be eliminated, and the Upstate districts can be pushed into NYC and Long Island (using water contiguity).  It is possibly to give Nita Lowey, for example, the Northern part of Peter King's district.

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:19:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Usually they only do that

when there's some direct connection across the water, like a bridge or a ferry.

---

by: DTOzone @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:23:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Such rules are meant to be broken

Before Texas in 2003, mid-decade redistricting was only done when ordered by a court.

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:34:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ha Ha Ha Ha HA

Have you seen the current NY State Senate map????

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:37:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yeah

but there's no across water districts that aren't connected by a bridge. The closest to that is Diane Savino's district but that includes the Verrazzano Bridge.  

---

by: DTOzone @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 21:41:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Check out NY-60

It is one of the finest example compactness that I have seen in my life...

http://www.nysenate.gov/distri...

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:26:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

District 60?

Where's the bridge that connects Buffalo to Grand Island? Oh wait, there isn't any.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:57:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is a little different

Buffalo and Grand Island, as well as Laurelton and Rockaway are very different than connecting Rye and Oyster Bay...District 60 and 14 are connected by a small land route that is outside the district, to get to Oyster Bay from Rye, you have to travel 35 miles through NYC.

---

by: DTOzone @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:34:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rye and Oyster Bay

In the early 70s Rockefeller wanted to extend I-287 across Long Island Sound with a bridge connecting Rye and Oyster Bay. Too bad it never happened.

---

by: davybaby @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 12:42:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It would have been a horribly wasteful boondoggle

But otherwise, we agree. :-P

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 16:06:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

District 14 is another example

http://www.nysenate.gov/distri...

No bridge there either.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 23:00:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well the two parts of District 14

are connected by one outer-district land mass,  

---

by: DTOzone @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:31:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"New York's population loss"???

New York state population:

July 2008 Estimate:  19,490,297
April 2000 Census:   18,976,457

New York will lose a seat because it is growing slower than the national average, not because it is losing people.

---

by: davybaby @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 12:37:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fine, but my point remains the same

Plus, I'd like to point out that just about all of that population growth came from New York City, Long Island, and Westchester County (in fact, New York City and its immediate suburbs account for all of the population growth and them some, upstate New York has been bleeding population).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 15:15:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

agreed

that area is going to get 1.1 new state senate seat meaning the north area is going to lose that.

---

by: admnok @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 15:52:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What's wrong with Owens?

I've missed this, what is so objectionable about Owens?

---

by: zac @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 19:38:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Publicly has said

he will not vote for any health care bill with a public option.  Beyond that he has not suggested what he stands for, this guy could be the biggest DINO, hell he is not even a Democrat.

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:14:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Neither will she

Look, the campaign has barely started. People will learn where he stands. It stikes me as foolish to through him under the bus so soon when we know little about him and know how effective the GOP are at whipping votes. I'm amazed people think she would be as liberal once she got to Washington.

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:03:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Argh

"Strikes me as as foolish to throw him under the bus..."

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:04:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't expect her to be a liberal

but I don't expect her to be around after 2010 either (courtesy of a primary by the right-wing).  Owens OTOH, will not only be a really conservative Democrat (saying you will certainly vote against a bill w/ a public option puts you in the most 10-20 conservative Dems, further he was never a Democrat until this campaign), but would give us major headaches during redistricting if we would have to protect him.  

I could have lived with Aubertine, he is conservative on some things, yes, but he is an economic populist and a proud Democrat.  I think Addie Jenne Russell should run in 2010 if Aubertine doesn't.

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:24:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Parties govern

Not people. Scozzafava would vote with Dems less often than Owens would, and I doubt Owens would be Bobby Bright 2.0.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:55:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed.

We're in an era of one-letter elections: D vs. R. That overrides everything.

---

by: davybaby @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 12:45:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you are a one or two issue voter

I can understand people supporting her but I can't imagine in this day and age anybody running as a Republican anywhere in the country being more liberal than the Democrat when the total package is taken into consideration. Particularly in this case when she has to protect her right flank from a significant third-party challenge.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 12:57:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We'll see

In this case, I think she might be the more liberal choice overall.  By the way, when was the last time this happened?  John Heinz was a pretty liberal Republican, but we didn't throw conservative Dems at him, did we?  I know Weicker ran to Joementum's left (and we would have done well to have him).  Any other more recent races?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 17:29:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lieberman was the example

I thought of. I'm stumped to anything recently. It was quite common well into the seventies. I recall something about Nixon endorsing conservative Dems over liberal Repubs. Goes with the whole territory of polarization - liberal Republicans in the North almost extinct becuase they now call themselves Dems and vice versa in the South.  

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 17:36:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even Jesse Jackson

Endorsed a liberal Republican back in the 70s. Then-Sen. Percy when running for re-election. Also heard he supported a liberal Republican Cook County Attorney (or whatever its called) back then, too.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Sep 28, 2009 at 07:46:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I want Owens.

I can see Dede becoming a lot more Conservative once in the house; and at the same time see Owns becoming more liberal. And that is what I believe would likely happen, because of pressure from the party establishment.
Plus if Dede wins then the GOP will have at least a semi-sane person in their party, which in turn helps validate the GOP as "thinking creatures". The sooner the GOP party is filled with more Bauchmans, and Vitters the better.

---

by: Hamtree @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 19:59:34 PM UTC

You might be right on Dede

but I've seen no reason to assume that about Owens.

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:15:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would rather have a conservative democrat than a liberal republican

to represent me in congress

---

by: fai calif @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:34:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It depends

for example I'd rather have a right-wing Repub than a cancer like Parker Griffith or Bobby Bright.

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:36:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bobby Bright

The difference is that a non-Blue Dog couldn't win in a district that went for McCain 63-36 like Bright did. NY-23, on the other hand, is a much more moderate district.  

And for the record, Bobby Bright may be socially conservative, but calling him a "cancer" is a bit much. He's a smart, funny guy by all accounts, did a good job as mayor of Montgomery and isn't monolithically conservative.

So I guess put me down in the camp that prefers DINOs to Rush Limbaugh's handmaidens. Or, put another way, I'd pick Bobby Bright over Jeff Sessions any day.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

---

by: arealmlc @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 21:57:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well Parker Griffith is a cancer

no question about it.  Saying you won't vote for Pelosi, and then suggesting she go to a mental hospital, well if I lived in AL-5, I'd vote for the Repub.  Wouldn't even have to think twice about it or even hold my nose.

As far as Bobby Bright being "not monolithically conservative", give me one major issue which he has not towed the GOP line.  This guy made an endorsement in the 2008 Presidential race, Mike Huckabee.

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:20:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree on Griffith

He voted to spank Joe Wilson and he's been backing economic initiatives lately (Cash for Clunkers, student aid overhaul) which is not much, admittedly. And he's done some crappy things like vote against the Lily Ledbetter Pay Act and Hate Crimes. At this point, he's probably the single most vulnerable Democrat, but if he follows the normal pattern, he'll slowly get less conservative as he gets more secure in his district.

But votes aside, he's not a douche like Griffith. Here's Bright's take on Pelosi:

Bright said he will not speak poorly of party leadership "just to elevate myself."

In another interview, he described her as "professional". Not exactly glowing, but again, not horribly douchey, either.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

---

by: arealmlc @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 01:03:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

DiFi versus Tom Campbell

If it was for one term, I'd want Campbell.

The only reason not to take the liberal Republican is we generaly lose to liberal incumbent Republicans in blue states.  

Just in terms of quality of representation, give me a liberal Republican anytime.

---

by: tommypaine @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:02:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meg Whitman doesn't have a chance.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

---

by: daman09 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 20:15:49 PM UTC

If it's Brown, maybe.

If it's Newsom, I think we've got a race.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:11:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not unless Whitman can peel off

Hispanic and even black Democrats, perhaps on the issue of gay marriage and Newsom being the face of it.  On economic issues, Newsom isn't much more liberal than Whitman.    

---

by: JSmith @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:54:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republicans don't win in CA via ideology

They can only win when the Dem is a douche.  Newson is a douche.

Hispanic/black/gay marriage, none of that enters into it.

---

by: tommypaine @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 01:04:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NJ-Gov: Isn't Corzine one year late to try and ride Obama's coattails?

Man, like a General fighting the last war.

---

by: homerun @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 21:02:09 PM UTC

Well, One of Corzine's big problems

...is consolidating the Democratic/liberal vote.  

---

by: colbycakes @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 21:15:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The billboard

looks like Obama/Corzine ticket, not Corzine/Weinberg

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 21:33:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Henry Brown won't retire

I don't think any blogger went after Old Smokey more than I did last year, but as much as it pains me to say it, Brown isn't quitting any time soon.

As of the end of June, Brown had a 12 to 1 money advantage over Campbell ($610k to $49k COH) and the young gun has failed to develop any kind of message or platform to mount a credible challenge.

Snappy one-liners and Daddy's name won't be enough take down Brown next June. Unless something dramatic happens between now and then, Oh Henry is going to eat Tumpy alive in the primary.

---

by: Elonkey @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 21:47:55 PM UTC

I wouldn't bet on that...

He just announced his campaign TODAY. Of course he doesn't have a lot of money - YET.  Of course he hasn't laid out a platform - YET.

It is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, where Gov. Campbell performed very well. Just picture the opposite of Kathleen Blanco. The papers are covering the anniversary pretty heavy too, particularly Charleston which was hardest hit.  

Gov. Campbell's stature has certainly grown in comparison to the incompetent, hypocritical boob in there now.  Tunky Campbell has been publicly in conflict with Gov. Sanford,which is a pretty good place to be right now. That conflict erupted BEFORE the bimbo eruption,BTW.

Of course, Tunky has never run for office before, and his brother was unsuccessful running for Lt. Governor (against incumbent Andre Bauer [before the recent public gay rumors]).  He might turn out to be a dud of a candidate. On the other hand, a CD is 1/6th the population to cover, and his father's political machine was a force to be dealt with in it's day.      

Brown may pull it out, but he isn't going to get off easy.  Not by a long shot.  He has never had primary opposition to amount to anything, so he can't just run the same kind of campaign he did against Democrat Linda Ketner in '08. Especially since Campbell is running against him from the RIGHT. He isn't use to that, just like he wasn't use to a tough general election campaign last time (and it showed).

If Ketner was straight, she would be the SC-1 member now.  
Nearly losing a safe GOP seat to a lesbian Democrat has given the GOP regulars pause to put it mildly. The Democrats lining up to run are all credible candidates. The GOP will be hestitant to just defer to Henry, if they think he is too far past his prime.

Plus the party hierarchy/HQ will be so busy with at LEAST FOUR open statewide offices(all with TONS of potential for mud) to even worry too much about Henry.  

Brown's renomination and re-election is by NO means certain. He had better run smart and run scared, or he will be 'retiring' whether he wants to or not.  
   

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:32:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I disagree about the general

While Brown is not safe, I don't think he's particularly vulnerable.  Ketner being lesbian, I don't think swayed that many votes, SC-1 is reasonably sane for a Southern district, and one reason why Ketner did so well was the large amount of money she raised (and the large number of blacks Obama turned out).  It is unlikely that the Dems will be able to find that combination again.  

Joe Wilson is more vulnerable than Brown, IMO.

---

by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:43:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not many HAD to be swayed from Ketner..

for her to lose, it was a 1-2 % loss. I agree it isn't a wingnut district though.

If the GOP race is divisive and/or it bloodies up Brown, the money will flow to the Democrat based on that vulnerability and the 2008 showing.

SC 1st & 2nd are both very close in likeyhood of flipping, IMO.  You can make a case for either one to be the MOST likely.
   

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 23:43:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes and no...

I agree with you that Brown's re-election is by no means certain. A strong conservative Democrat like Leon Stavrinakis could pose a serious threat to Brown. I also agree that both the SC-01 and SC-02 have become competitive districts for SC Dems. It's only a matter of time before one or both flips.

However, Tumpy Campbell actually first announced his intentions to challenge Brown more than six months ago. He initially made headlines back in April when he out-raised Brown in the first quarter. But since then, his fundraising has stalled and his pricey consultants at UTP Strategies have yet to help him figure out a way to raise some cash or message him.

Brown and his excellent SC political consultant Rod Shealy are both painfully aware that they dropped the ball last fall. Now facing two opponents trying to run to the right of him (Katherine Jenerette is running again, too), Brown has picked up his fundraising BIG TIME. And while I am looking forward to Campbell and Jenerette lampooning "RINO" Brown over the next eight months, I still think Brown is likely to survive the primary.

---

by: Elonkey @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 07:32:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe I missed it...

but I don't remember anything publicly announced about him outraising Brown.  Can you provide a link?  It was mentioned in a couple of papers that he was running.  That was all I remmeber seeing before this.  

Running against the bailouts and earmarks is 'manna' enough to make a race of it, IMO.  

---

by: vicupstate @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 09:36:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Corzine goes "there"

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

I imagine this could backfire but I guess it is kichen sink time.

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:08:54 PM UTC

I really, really don't like ...

... seeing him reduced to making fun of his opponent's weight, but as you said, it's kichen sink time.

---

by: IndianaProgressive @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:12:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I dunno

Throwing his weight around is a decently popular saying.  I had it said to me last week (I'm the ops manager) and I'm not even close to being overweight.  

Now, I agree that it probably is a dig at Christie's weight, but I think this can be skated off as its only a saying.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 23:45:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Stupid move.

Does Corzine (or anyone) seriously believe this ad is gonna win him over any new voters? I certainly don't. If anything, it probably helps Christie.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:09:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

your joking

you think an add like that will help Christie??

It may not help Corzine but it will most defeintly hurt Chris Christie.   The biggest benefit probably goes to Daggett.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

---

by: skywrnchsr509 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:20:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, I'm hardly saying it's a game-changing ad...

...but it kinda reeks of desperation. At this point in the game, I cannot possibly see how a Christie or Daggett supporter says "gee, that ad makes me forgive Corzine for the past four years," but I can see how a Daggett supporter or an undecided thinks "I'm not necessarily crazy about Christie, but Corzine surely seems to be running out of substantive issues to hit him on."

I think in the debates, Corzine needs to somehow portray Christie as too conservative for New Jersey. If he can't do that, and if Obama doesn't tour the state with him, I don't see a scenario under which he wins.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:46:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

its not about that

the ad isn't designed to make their supporters forgive Corzine and vote for him.  

I honestly think Corzine has realized he can't win on his own.  He's simply trying to make Christie look so bad to the average voter that they won't vote for him.  

Corzine has about all the voters he's going to get short of an Obama tour to drive out additional african americans.  

The only way he wins is if the rest of the voters split their votes between Christie and Daggett or stay home.  An ad like this one will make voters shy away from Christie, who is the biggest threat to win, and either not vote, or vote for Daggett...very few people will vote for Corzine after deciding that Daggett can't win and that they won't vote for Christie.  

If Corzine makes Christie too toxic and too conservative, he's got a winning combo

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 07:15:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He threw his weight around

to get off for traffic violations. I agree that the fact that Christie is fat is obliquely referenced in this, but I think the ad is legitimate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:31:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Major Ruh-Roh!

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 23:37:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Arizona Gov

Terry Goddard leads Brewer 46-36

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

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by: fatcathobbes @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:24:54 PM UTC

YES!!!!

That's fantastic!  We havent gotten much polling on this race.  We need to start picking up state house and senate seats in that state.  

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by: Andrew @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 23:13:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

All right!

I am not surprised though. Brewer made a very boneheaded move by removing those civil union benefits earlier, as civil unions are popular in Arizona, which showed with their first attempt at a gay marriage ban failing because it would have banned civil unions also.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 23:36:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Goddard

with Goddard in the race, I was never really worried about Arizona.  

Still dissapointed that we won't have Senator Napolitano but there is always a chance for that at a later time.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 23:47:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe Not

She has net-negative favorables in AZ according to the poll on the sen race being released tom.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:09:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually

according to the PPP tweet, the only reason she's not popular anymore is because Arizona voters were mad at her for leaving half way through her term. Had she stayed she would have remained popular and had a good chance at beating McCain in 2010.  

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by: jmartin4s @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 01:07:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

They were only speculating that was the reason

It could very well be anger over the right wing extremism report.  Or maybe she wasn't that popular when she left due to the bad economy.  Besides, if she had stayed Gov, there's a very good chance she'd be worse off because of the worsening budget mess.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 03:54:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Harry Mitchell were younger

the democratic party would probably be pushing him to take on McCain, he is from a swing district in Maricopa county. If we could get Maricopa to give out results that mirror Cook county in Illinois, Arizona would become a reliably blue state.

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by: jmartin4s @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 01:26:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Far from that

Maricopa hasn't voted Democratic for President since 1948 and that includes 1996 when Clinton actually won Arizona.

When was the last time a non-incumbent Democrat won Maricopa County statewide? Other than Goddard, who I think narrowly carried it in 2002 in the AG race, I'm not sure.  

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by: DTOzone @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 01:34:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fantastic results

With the numbers for Dean Martin not much better, this basically means the only way the GOP wins this race is if they get Jeff Flake to run (or Arpaio, but there's no way he's going to do it).

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 02:01:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

MA-Sen: Major Garrett just tweeted

It's Kirk

http://twitter.com/MajoratWH/s...

Announcement tomorrow.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:39:32 PM UTC

VA-02

I actually considered voting for Scott Taylor for Mayor last year, until he got on the "Drill Here, Drill Now" stupid train, so I unenthusiastically voted for Oberndorf.

The fix is in for Rigell, though -- he's racked up institutional support and none of the other candidates are going to make any headway in the nomination.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 22:52:16 PM UTC

NJ GOV

Strategic Vision has it @ 46-38-8 Christie-Corzine-Daggett http://politicalwire.com/archi...

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by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 23:29:49 PM UTC

So, according to this poll, Corzine can tie this thing up...

...if he wins 100% of undecideds.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:47:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA dems aren't that impressive

Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom do not look all that formidable to me. I was hoping Sen Feinstein would run. She gets a lot of heat from liberal blogs but she would have won fairly easily against whoever the repubs put up. Assuming she runs a decent campaign Meg Whitman certainly has a shot against the current crop of Dem candidates.

Re NJ Gov: It might be time for Pres Obama to have the same talk with Corzine he had with Paterson.  

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by: Lila @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:46:48 AM UTC

No way Corzine drops out.

Too late for that.

Again, I concur about Gavin Newsom not being all that impressive a statewide candidate. Jerry Brown looks pretty good, especially if he trounces Newsom in the primary (which looked likely, until Bubba's endorsment). And, Meg Whitman's hardly a juggernaut, but I feel like she's moderate enough to potentially get 15%-ish of the Dem vote, perhaps even more of an ultra-liberal like Newsom is her competition.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 00:51:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

At what point in the 2002 campaign did

Torricelli drop out. July, August, September, October??????

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by: jmartin4s @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 01:10:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not too late

Torcielli dropped out the 30th

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by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 01:10:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

30th of september????

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by: jmartin4s @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 01:19:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

According to Wikipedia, yes

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by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 01:35:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

According to state law

...substitution for a withdrawing candidate is only permitted 51 days before the election or sooner. I believe that window has already passed us by. (And even if it hadn't, Corzine has a major ego and would never withdraw, but I digress.)

Torricelli did indeed withdraw a mere 36 days before the 2002 general election, and because there was no circumstance like a candidate's death, the Torricelli-Lautenberg swap would certainly seem to be a blatant violation of the statute.

Former West Windsor Mayor Doug Forrester, the Republican nominee, sued to stop the candidate swap. The NJ Supreme Court, however, somehow managed to rule that the swap was "not inconsistent with...the terms of the statute." The decision basically hinged on past NJ Supreme Court decisions that election laws "should be liberally construed to allow the greatest scope for public
participation in the electoral process, [and] to
allow candidates to get on the ballot...."

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by: NJCentrist @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 02:22:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even so...

...that recent hypothetical polling with Cory Booker and whatshisface hardly put the Dems in any better a position to beat Chistie.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 02:37:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Extremely hypothetical.

Again, this is all kind of a moot point since Corzine would never withdraw anyway.

If you look at the hypothetical polling on Mayor Booker and Rep. Pallone, the number one thing you see is that large chunks of the electorate haven't formed opinions of them yet. In Pallone's case, about 60% of the electorate was unsure of their opinion of him; in Booker's case, over 40%. Booker actually has net positive favorables among people of all races, ages, and political ideologies (yes, even conservatives). Pallone, on the other hand, has a net unfavorable rating, which can change of course (especially if 67% of Democrats don't have an opinion), but not so quickly before this election.

My prediction is that we will see both Pallone and Booker holding statewide office in the near future. Booker will probably win the governorship in 2013, while Pallone will probably win the race to succeed Sen. Lautenberg in 2014.

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by: NJCentrist @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 02:52:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If the nightmare happens and Chrisitie wins

he is so corrupt that he'd probably be involved in some sort of scandal that would force him out of office. Then maybe if there were a special election, Cory Booker could take over.

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by: jmartin4s @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 03:22:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And Bob Torricelli didn't have an ego?

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by: JSmith @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 03:48:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He certainly did

But Corzine is the type of politician who thinks he's much more well-liked than he actually is. The Torch knew when to throw in the towel, even if it was 15 days after the deadline to do so...

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by: NJCentrist @ Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 21:04:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]