I'm glad to see that -one- Democratic governor

is ahead for re-election!

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by: mkpowers @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 02:47:17 AM UTC

Realistically, a few of them are

John Lynch, Ted Strickland, Pat Quinn and Mike Beebe are all ahead. Chet Culver is ok against everyone but Branstad. Beebe is supposedly the most popular governor in the nation.

Most of the rest of the seats are open, and Democrats look good in the open races in Oregon and Maine, and unless things turn drastically, have a good chance to retain Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I'm actually pretty optimistic about Michigan too.

Then there's the open Republican seats in Hawaii, California, Vermont, South Carolina, Rhode Island, and Minnesota and against Brewer in Arizona and Gibbons in Nevada.  

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by: DTOzone @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 02:58:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Senator Barb's coattails may save Kratovil in 2010

cause she carried that district in 2004. She is one of my favorite senators.

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by: jmartin4s @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 03:02:06 AM UTC

Andy Harris may save Kratovil in 2010

if he's the candidate again and behaves like an unhinged teabagger

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 04:57:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why?

She can be a giant tool for corporate interests when she wants to.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 13:42:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Steele couldn't win in '06...

...there ain't a chance in hell he'd even come close in '10. In all sincerity, I thought he actually staged a halfway decent campaign against Cardin, but there's no way the Chairman of the RNC (and a kinda-incompetent one at that) can win in Maryland.

Ehlrich, on the other hand, could keep O'Malley on his toes. I doubt he could even pull within 5%, but I don't necessarily believe O'Malley would win by 11% either. I do buy O'Malley over Steele by 15% though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 03:05:45 AM UTC

MOM would beat Steele

by at least 60 - 40.

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by: davybaby @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 03:15:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Funny funny

It is ironic to see the Democratic Governor of the 2006 Class who got to the rockiest start, (aside from the walking disaster of Deval Patrick and the indicted Eliot Spitzer), is now in a strong position. In late 2007 Republicans were crooning quite a lot as his disapproval rating was in the double digit negatives after a large tax hike and a few controversial progressive policy initiatives after a very close, unexpectedly close victory in 2006. But as 2008 progressed O'Malley continued to build his support back up and now it looks very solid among Democrats and progressives which unfortunately for Republicans make up most of the state, and what's more independents are fairly ambivalent on him. He has proven a strong leader during the Financial Crisis and the recession.

It is ironic though, unlike places like Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, where it looked like the Democratic Governors were going to keep soaring in popularity and romp in 2010.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 03:37:44 AM UTC

Spitzer was never indicted (eom)

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by: DavidNYC @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 03:44:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

oh

my mistake.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 07:30:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why did MD improve so dramitically in 2008?

It looks as though there were several close races in 2006 (GOV, US Senate) yet in 2008, Obama performed dramatically better and MD was never even close. I understand we defeated two statewide office holders in 2006 and that black turnout obviously helped but what is at work in MD that is turning the state so dramatically blue at such a rate?  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 04:18:12 AM UTC

Incumbency and an Open Seat?

Well Maryland's been very Democratic for some time now. But I'd guess that it's in part because in that year the Republican governor could benefit from the pluses of incumbency, and the Senate race was for an open seat - and those are usually closer than other races.

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by: armand @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 04:26:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah I just find it strange Obama did so well

Just that 2006 was fairly close for both US Senate and GOV but with 2008 Obama cruised with never even a close poll the whole general election campaign. How could a non-incumbent Republican ever win MD again? Obviously the normal caveats for scandals apply but seriously beyond that MD is about as Democratic as you can get right now up there with MA, RI and VT but not so prone to mess around with Independent candidates like those states. It's the perfect mix of progressive DC suburbanites who are growing in power and influence, ethic white Democrats in Baltimore, and extremely loyal black voters in both areas. The only GOP areas are the east shore people who are small in population and the mountain area folks who are either becoming DC progressive suburbanites themselves or are being over numbered by those who are. The only area that concerns me is the Anne Arundrel area and GOP leaning which is numerous but Obama made some serious gains there (almost winning the county) but is that a fluke or is that area shifting as well?

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by: fitchfan28 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 05:16:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not A Fluke Per Se...

Like many states, MD had a shift in normal turnout patterns in 2008, where black turnout shot up dramatically.

There's always more turnout for Presidential election years across the board, but when I was looking at election results by legislative district I noticed something:
Turnout from 2006 to 2008 generally increased about 40-50% in the Republican-leaning districts I looked at. In the 40th, 41st, 43rd, 44th, and 45th, all black majority districts in Baltimore City, turnout nearly doubled; the results were nearly as dramatic in the 24th-26th districts in PG County.

When and if those numbers go back down to more normal levels, the landscape is more favorable to Republican candidates.

The big concern for the GOP is that the zone surrounding DC where there are basically no Republican voters seems to be expanding. They have their strongholds (most of the Shore, most of the west, Carroll County, most of Harford County) and those aren't going anywhere, but that's not enough to win much. They've got some work to do in persuading DC suburbanites that it's OK to vote Republican and they're failing miserably at the moment. (Another part of this is that it's probably harder for a party in a state next to DC to truly distance itself from the national party, so Bush has badly damaged the GOP brand in Maryland and there's only so much they can do about that other than wait for the Bush years to recede into memory.)  

Plus their bench is thin. Michael Steele is damaged goods. Ehrlich has some cachet but he's going stale on the sidelines. Their one remaining Congressman, Roscoe Bartlett, is ancient. Most of their delegation in Annapolis lacks potential.

Like all badly outnumbered minority parties in states their best hope is winning gubernatorial election and using that to stock a farm team. Getting a few legislators and county executives with broad appeal would also help.    

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 05:54:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Large AA community definitely

I've seen it opined a good few times that the state is as ripe as you will find demographically for a black senator. Which is why Steele was able to make it so close in 2006. If Mfume hadn't had a wiff of scandal about him he likely would have beat Cardin.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 16:39:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What scandal?

n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:06:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Women

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:09:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I also have to note

That one has to admit a name like Kwefei Mfume sure didn't help among the average blue collar union joes in and out of Balitmore.

I maintained then that Elijah Cummings would have been a better AA Candidate, though I like Ben Cardin a lot as an experienced legislator, ethical, and progressive, something that can't exactly be said for many of the machine AA politicians who also tend to be somewhat conservative, like Al Wynn. That being said Mfume played the race card a lot which instantly and totally turned me off as I want a 100% post-racial politics and don't hold white Republcians and black Democrats to seperate standards.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:47:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also

His fundraising was terrible. Very similar situation to Ohio this year. Someone quite dull for the establishment is likely to win when the seemingly more attractive candidate can't bring in the necessary funds.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:52:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AA senator in Maryland

As a former Takoma Park resident, I agree -- if Mikulski isn't able to serve out her next term, I think it's likely to be an Anthony Brown (repping for PG County)/Chris van Hollen (repping for Montgomery) slugfest as the political weight of the state moves towards DC.

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by: boojumsnark @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:17:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

truthfully I would really like

Van Hollen as a Senator, a lot. I mean that would be amazing. Having an AA senator would be nice, but I am not so concerned with race as to support someone because they are black and I would like a black Senator. Chris Van Hollen is just a talented and great Rep and natural leader, he would make the best possible U.S. Senator and he is a solid progressive.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:42:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Totally

But it wouldn't surprise me if he is more likely to stay in the House and climb the leadership ladder there. All the way to the top.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 18:49:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republican strongholds in Maryland

It's not just Anne Arundel, it's also Harford, Carroll, and even parts of Baltimore County. While Greater DC has been trending more Democratic very rapidly, Greater Baltimore has been stagnant. A hypothetical suburban-Baltimore congressional district without any of the city or any of the black-majority suburbs could elect a Republican.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 06:44:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Blue Maryland

Agree with the guy above me who cited the open Senate seat and the incumbent GOP governor as close contests.

Things that have made it harder for Republicans in the state:
* Upper Montgomery County generally doesn't vote for Republicans anymore. Neither does most of Charles County. It's not just Columbia that has Howard County colored blue on most maps now. If Democrats can sustain anything close to their showing in Frederick County in 2008 it's going to be nearly impossible for the Republicans to win anything statewide for a while.

* The state GOP is in turmoil as an organization. They're also caught in a sort of in-between situation. It's not Virginia where they can be dominated by conservatives and expect to win statewide that way, but there aren't enough liberal-to-moderate GOPers left to carve out the sort of niche the Republicans have done in, say, New Jersey. They've punted away many a winnable seat by fielding awful candidates with zero cross-party appeal like Andy Harris and Ellen Sauerbrey.  
 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 05:08:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Increased black turnout + Obama did very well in the suburbs, of which Maryland has many

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 12:03:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Let's draft Alan Keyes to run!

That guy is always funny to watch.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 06:54:05 AM UTC

Keyes isn't even a Republican anymore.

Though he's still as crazy as ever, and still thinks our President is an unelected Communist. (Wow, talk about holding a grudge.) The guy's gone so far to the right, John McCain "getting in his way" when they were both running for President in 2008 caused Keyes to form his own party. And as we all know well from Lieberman's example, third parties founded for vanity's sake don't generally last the cycle. Now he's burned his bridges with the GOP, his own so-called party is a joke, and he basically has nowhere to go except the cable news circuit (see: Buchanan, Pat).

It's a damn shame. I liked him better as a comedy-relief Republican, too. Guess the GOP learned a few things from 2004 after all.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 12:38:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Snooze

I remember Gonazales from 2004. I recall that they were decent.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 16:35:19 PM UTC