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SSP Daily Digest: 9/22

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 2:14 PM EDT


AR-Sen: Because you can never have too many wingnuts: yet another unknown Republican is piling into the GOP field in the Arkansas Senate race, financial adviser Buddy Rogers. At his announcement today, Rogers was introduced by, and is apparently something of a stand-in for, Benton County Judge and former state Sen. Dave Bisbee, who's an arch-enemy of state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who's already in the race.

CA-Sen: The DSCC has launched a web ad going after Carly Fiorina's disastrous tenure at Hewlett-Packard, especially her $21.5 million severance package and 18,000 layoffs. Conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is still hanging in there in the GOP primary, though, and got a helpful endorsement from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, who carry on the legacy of the 1970s anti-property tax crusader upon whom much of the blame for California's current condition can be directed.

IL-Sen: Although Rep. Mark Kirk has been accorded front-runner status in the Illinois GOP Senate primary, he has at least half a dozen minor opponents, and real estate developer Patrick Hughes seems to be getting the most attention of them; Kirk has been trying to move to the right to shore up that flank, as seen in his contorted waffling on cap and trade several weeks ago. Hughes has released an internal poll that shows, well, mostly very high undecideds, but with Kirk not in terribly commanding position. In a head-to-head, Kirk leads Hughes 24-11. In the seven-person field, Kirk gets 23% (no number for Hughes, though... gee, I wonder why?).

MA-Sen: With Republican procedural stalling tactics having gotten exhausted, the state Senate is taking up debate today on the issue of revising state law to allow a temporary appointment to fill Ted Kennedy's seat. The House has already passed the measure, and both chambers could be in agreement by tomorrow. The Boston Globe endorsed former Governor Mike Dukakis for the short-term position.

WV-Sen: 91-year-old Robert Byrd has returned to the hospital today after a fall at his home. A spokesman says he was being checked out and unlikely to be admitted to the hospital, though.

NJ-Gov: When we left off yesterday, Independent Chris Daggett had joined a suit by a libertarian candidate challenging New Jersey's ballot placement laws. However, yesterday, a superior court judge refused to expedite the case, meaning it won't be heard until after November, leaving major-party candidates Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in the positions at the top of the ballot.

NY-Gov (pdf): I'm not sure why the New York governor's race is so heavily polled, since the numbers don't change much, but I guess people like gawking at train wrecks. It's Siena's turn today; they find David Paterson's approval at 29/59, with a re-elect of 14%. Paterson loses a primary to Andrew Cuomo 66-20. In a general, Paterson loses to Rudy Giuliani 52-35, but beats Rick Lazio 39-35, while Cuomo beats Giuliani 52-39 and Lazio 64-18. Also, while it's clear Giuliani isn't running for Senate, he'd be competitive if he did, beating Kirsten Gillibrand 46-38.

TN-08: Rep. John Tanner has drawn GOP competition that doesn't sound that impressive on paper -- Steve Fincher is a farmer who also travels Tennessee with his family gospel singing group. But Fincher at least has access to money, as he says he'll report more than $100K in donations at month's end.

NY-LG: In a surprise decision, New York's Court of Appeals (the state's highest court) upheld David Paterson's appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lt. Governor, in a 4-3 vote (the 3 against were all Pataki appointees). The state Constitution is vague on the LG issue, but Paterson was the first Governor to try to appoint an LG instead of leaving the spot vacant. This finally brings some stability back into New York's politics (which devolved into chaos with a state Senate coup over summer) by giving a tie-breaking vote to Senate Dems in case there's another defection, and maybe more importantly, enabling Paterson to resign to take a nice comfy ambassadorship somewhere without turning control of the state over to Pedro Espada Jr.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/22
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What's Cuomo Waiting For?
The constant barrage of numbers showing him flattening Paterson into nothingness should have reached Cuomo's thick head by now. Is it because he's waiting for a better time next year? I'm concerned about that because I don't know when the NY Primary is going to be, and Cuomo's going to need more than high numbers if he wants to pull a Sarah Palin circa 2006.

I would just die if Cuomo doesn't get into this thing. Probably every Democrat is screaming at him privately to run (maybe even the White House). Hell, I bet even his dad is urging him to run. If Cuomo runs for reelection instead, then I think the blogging community needs to rethink its strategy on recruiting good candidates, because everytime they talk about who should be running or appointed due to a vacancy, the opposite tends to happen.

Case in point:

CO-Sen: Instead of Hickenlooper or Romanoff, we got Bennett.

KS-Sen: Sebelius was probably not going to run, even before Obama tapped her for HHS.

NY-Sen: Instead of Cuomo, Paterson picked Gillibrand.

DE-Sen: Instead of John Carney, we got Biden's former CoS.


Primary is September
Hence no need for action. Maybe if Rudy gets in Cuomo will pull the trigger. He holds all the cards including the "King".

[ Parent ]
My hunch?
Cuomo is absolutely convinced Paterson will stage a run for re-election, even if he steps into the race. Thus, he's probably mulling over the various implications. A contentious primary like this would indeed have a number of consequences, some bad and many good. For one, it would drain resources from what could be a tough race against Rudy Giulaini. Also, if Paterson doesn't mind playing the race card, a primary could dampen Cuomo's ability to turn out African-Americans, a constituency he'd certainly need in enthuiastic numbers to triumph over Rudy. And finally, a Republican win here would be blamed solely upon the weakness of Paterson and Cuomo could sweep in come 2014 to stage a bid w/o the primary.

Of course, a primary also means Paterson handily loses, which is more positive a positive than all the negatives are negative combined. Honestly, I think after Carl McCall, Cuomo's in a nightmareish position, even if he really shouldn't be.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Maybe Paterson
Is waiting to see if Rudy runs. I can't believe he seriously think he can beat him. Maybe he thinks he can beat Lazio which polls would support.

[ Parent ]
I think Cuomo probably wants
what Lisa Madigan wanted, and endorsement from Obama, which would take race out of the equation.

[ Parent ]
CT-Sen (2012): Lieberman to run as a Republican?
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Oh I want him to run as a Republican
Just so I can watch the DSCC paint a giant target on Lieberman's back.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I think it might just be the best chance to beat him
I imagine a hard right fundie would probably run.

[ Parent ]
How's this for a strange scenario
Lieberman decides to just abandon the Democrats and run under the Republican ticket, he gets primaried by a right-wing version of Ned Lamont, he loses the primary, and then runs for re-election under Connecticut for Lieberman (again) while both the Democrat and Bizzaro-Lamont both run ads against him with this:

"Joe Lieberman: So bad, that even the [Insert Party Name here] won't accept him"


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Well, if he wants to lose, so be it...
...but yeah, I suspect he was just joking. I'd be shocked if he didn't run as an Indie again.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I'm Sure He's Just Joking :-)
Or is he...hmmm we may need to take preemptive measures on this one, folks.  

[ Parent ]
Can't See It
I think Lieberman owed at least some of his 2006 success to the idea that many voters like the idea of an "Independent Voice."

He's in a tough spot if he wants another term. He needs the support of the Republicans and conservative-leaning independents to win, sure, but he also needs at least some liberal or moderate independents to beat a Democrat too. If the GOP nominee in the race gets any sort of traction, any halfway credible Democrat can get 40% and wins a 3-way race.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Years ago as a grad student in NY, I witnessed the rise of Al Damato and his subsequent entrenchment.
I cannot trust New Yorkers to make the right decision. I thank Obama for all he is doing. I hope he will do the same in other states.

Paterson is delusional
http://www.politickerny.com/54...

Only one winner in a battle with the president.


Based On That Assumption
I guess health care will get passed, public option and all? Obama may need a little help from a friend named Reconciliation.

[ Parent ]
Meaning Obama versus Paterson


[ Parent ]
what does the Rt Hon Sen Pedro Espada think of Richard ravitch as the LG of NY?


Robert Byrd
I hope the best for Robert Byrd.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Yes, best wishes to him.
According to the NY Times, Byrd is now being kept in the hospital for a high white blood cell count, indicating a possible looming infection.  

[ Parent ]
All the best to Senator Byrd
We sure could use his voice to help put the crazy stupid GOP in their place.

We also need his Democratic vote. If he were to decide that he can no longer serve, what is the process in WV for filling an open Senate seat?


[ Parent ]
Unfortunately Byrd will be an opponent
if health care goes to reconciliation.

[ Parent ]
MA Sen
passes temp. appointment bill. Final passage is expected tomorrow.

Massachusetts should have a new Senator by next week.


Dukakis?
I've heard a lot of buzz that Dukakis may be the one appointed.  I love the guy, but is he the best appointee?

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Seems like he's the consensus
but who knows what Patrick will do.

All he has to do is show up and vote for a few days. Not a bad gig!


[ Parent ]
Remember What I Said In The First Post On This Thread
Anyone ever mentioned in SSP, or anywhere, as a potential candidate, or anyone we guess will get appointed, usually never does. So personally I'm going to shut up about the impending replacement senator until Patrick actually picks someone, and then I'll talk about him/her.

[ Parent ]
I was right about Delaware
I didn't specifically say Ted Kaufman because I didn't know who he was. But I expected to see a Biden loyalist get appointed as a placeholder so Beau could run in 2010.

[ Parent ]
He's got universal name ID
He's a policy wonk and he has made it very clear he has no intention on running in the special. He really is as close to a perfect choice as I can see.

[ Parent ]
It's a 3½ month temp. job. Who cares about universal name ID?
Might as well pick a complete unknown, for instance that doctor who was being talked up a couple days ago.
Why does Dukakis need a sort of career-appreciation award?

[ Parent ]
Because it lessens
Any political ramifications. No one is going to say Dukakis is unqualified to be a senator, whereas someone who doesn't have any government experience.

[ Parent ]
The best appointee
is one who is a rubber stamp for progressives on health care and the sort.


[ Parent ]
You mean "someone in the tank"
That would be Dukakis no?

[ Parent ]
LOL
That was the funniest picture of Dukakis with his big ole helmet in the tank!  I forgot about that photo-op, but it was a riot.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Here's an image, in case anyone wants to laugh again.
IMG]

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Oops, let me try that again.
Here's an image, in case anyone wants to laugh again.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
It isn't actually as funny
As John Kerry's "Worm".

http://www.thepinkflamingoblog...


[ Parent ]
Wow.
I paid far more attention to the 2004 presidential campaign than the 1988 presidential campaign (I was only 5 at the time) yet I had no idea that "worm" incident even happened!

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Funniest comment found to the Politico Byrd story:
"Hope the old guy holds on for another month until McDonnell gets elected and picks a good coservative senator to fill Byrd's seat.

We need to slow down Obozo......"


Doh!
Of course the political junkie in me is more concerned with the actual swearing in date in Virginia rather than West Virginia being an entirely different state. That and the fact a month from now is still two weeks from election day.

[ Parent ]
I see the Confederates have moved on
to believing that the civil war never happened. . .

[ Parent ]
VA legislature
My reading of the Constitution is that (at least technically) the VA legislature needs to approve if a state splits off.  Doubt they did.  Of course, VA's secession trumps everything but ...

[ Parent ]
Oh I'm pretty sure the constitutionality of West Virginia itself has never actually been solved
I'd still love to hear oral arguments for something like that :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Get a brian moran!


[ Parent ]
Why are people giving the CA senate race more attention than it deserves
Especially the DSCC, is there really any question that Boxer WONT win?  California is only getting Bluer...

I mean, she got had a higher percentage of the vote in 2004 than John Kerry did in California.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


And Fiorina
is looking like an even weaker candidate than Bill Jones was. Jones AFAIR did not make any gaffes like Fiorina is doing (referendum on Obama when his approvals in the state are 60%+). I would not be surprised to see Boxer overperform her own 2004 performance in 2010, maybe even overperforming Obama's. Likewise, I am not worried about the other Senate seat in 2012 should Feinstein retire.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
That first gaffe of hers
makes me feel pretty safe about Boxer as well.

Who says their campaign is a referendum on the President this far out from an election?  

I sure as shit hope by the time 2010 rolls around, Obama will have 70-25 type approvals again and then all Boxer has to do is play that over and over again.

She cant be taken as a serious candidate, if you cant talk like a candidate for office then dont be one, you'll never make it.


[ Parent ]
Fiorina
I've said it before and I'm sure I'll trot it out again, but Fiorina is a walking disaster ... as a candidate, businesswoman and (probably) human being. Gaffier than Joe Biden after a six-pack.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Well, Fiorina may not ultimately make a great candidate...
...but she's certainly an awfully high-profile one, right off-the-bat. I suspect Boxer will cruise to a 55%-ish victory, but nonetheless, I'd keep my eye on Independent women, who could perhaps be won over by Fiorina and Whitman.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Independent women
aren't sufficient for Fiorina to win in California.  She will need to win a good chunk of Democrats.

[ Parent ]
Just like Arnold and Poizner did in 2006.
They were the only Republicans elected in normal elections in the naughts (that is what I call the years 2000-2009), though Arnold's was a reelection. As I wrote in a diary and a comment earlier, the pool of Democratic voters has grown too much and the pool of Republican voters has shrunken too much for any Republican to win statewide with just Independents, who have trended Democratic in voting since 1992, and Republicans alone.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Now if only that were the case in local election
Primarily those that have to do with the state senate and state assembly...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Senator Byrd
With all due respect to Senator Byrd and his public service career, isn't it about time for the man to resign?  He clearly is not able to give full representation the people of West Virginia which happens to be one of the states that desperately needs two strong voices in this health care debate.  I'm not for term limits or telling someone they are too old as long as they are able to serve it does not phase me, but it may be time for Byrd to step down.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


53 days or 2012
Byrd has the longest Senate career and the second longest congressional career being just 53 days shor of Carl Hayden.  That might be one factor.

Byrd is about half way through his term.  I'm pretty sure he won't run for another but he may try to complete the term he was elected to.  He would be 94 (almost 95) by that election.  That is several years younger than Strom Thurmond who made it IIRC to 98.


[ Parent ]
100
I remember because of Trent Lott's comments about his presidential campaign in 1948 on his 100th birthday celebration after the 2002 elections.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Byrd deserves to go out on his own terms
I personally won't support any movement trying to force Byrd to give up his US Senate seat.  He's earned the right to stay as long as he wants to.  Does this suck for WV?  Most definitely.  However, WV re-elected the man in 2006, so he has every right to retain his seat.

On a different matter, I wish there was a law that would require every US Senator and Representative to take an annual senility test.  The GOP ranks would be decimated.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
No one deserves to go out on their own terms
The point is what is best for a state and a country, not an individual.  Byrd should resign, as should anyone who can't do the job looking forward (meaning someone injured doesn't need to resign).

[ Parent ]
Yes they do
If the state re-elects him, thats their problem. The state elected him to serve until 2013, and he should serve what they elected him to serve. Plus, he has stated that he plans on staying in the Senate until he dies.  

[ Parent ]
Another shitty op-ed by the Globe.
The Boston Globe endorsed former Governor Mike Dukakis for the short-term position.

For a liberal paper, they stink. Cue the tank jokes from Rush and Howie Carr. This whole thing is already a joke and everyone knows it so letting this clown be the cherry on top seems fitting.


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