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SSP Daily Digest: 9/21

by: Crisitunity

Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 2:58 PM EDT


MA-Sen: Here's another academic name popping up in connect with Ted Kennedy's vacant senate seat. The Center for American Progress Action Fund thinks that Deval Patrick should appoint Harvard prof and Boston-based surgeon Atul Gawande to the post. Gawande is best-known these days for his seminal article this summer in the New Yorker about health-care costs, but he also was a healthcare advisor to Bill Clinton in the early 90s. (D)

Also in the Bay State, Rep. Mike Capuano got a potentially helpful endorsement, from fellow Rep. Barney Frank. Frank's imprimatur may help Capuano prove his liberal bona fides and win over some voters in the Boston suburbs who may not be familiar with him.

NH-Sen: Despite Kelly Ayotte's reputed field-clearing abilities, yet another Republican is adding his name to the list of possible candidates in the New Hampshire Senate race. Real estate investor William Binnie is quite literally from the country club wing of the GOP -- he's owner and president of the Wentworth-by-the-Sea Country Club and owner/driver of an auto racing team. Another suggestion he may be running to the left of Ayotte (although her intentionally amorphous political persona gives no clue about her ideology); Binnie is tight with moderate GOP ex-Rep. Andrew Zeliff, and has given money to Democratic candidates in the past.

TX-Sen: Rumors out of Texas have Kay Bailey Hutchison resigning her seat at year's end (on Dec. 31 or Jan. 1) in order to pursue her gubernatorial bid against Rick Perry. Under Texas law, this would lead to a short-term appointment, and then a special election on May 8.

IA-Gov: Incumbent Dem Chet Culver continues to sport rather good favorables, clocking in at 50/37, but his re-elect numbers may give him some pause (28% say "definitely vote for," 27% say "consider an alternative," and 21% say "definitely vote for alternative"). Republican ex-Gov. Terry Branstad, who's been receptive to the idea of a bid for a return to office, is still remembered fondly by Iowans, with favorables of 59/22. Sen. Chuck Grassley is the state's best-liked figure, though, with 64% favorables and a 45% "definitely vote for." (H/t Steve Benen.)

NJ-Gov (pdf): Neighborhood Research is a Republican internal pollster (they worked with primary loser Steve Lonegan), but they were the first pollster to find Jon Corzine moving back within the margin of error. They're back with a new poll, showing Corzine still within striking distance, trailing Chris Christie 37-33 (although that's down from their August finding of 37-35) with Chris Daggett at 6. Meanwhile, Chris Daggett has joined a voter suit challenging ballot ordering in New Jersey, which favors the two major-party candidates.

PA-Gov: Montgomery County Commissioner and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel says he's moving ahead with plans to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. No formal announcement date is set, but the progressive from the Philly suburbs is starting to staff up, and is bolstered by an internal poll he commissioned through Lake Research, showing him leading the nebulous field at 15%, with Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner both at 12, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty at 6, and Philly businessman Tom Knox at 5.

NY-23: With the 23rd now officially vacant, Dem candidate Bill Owens is the first to put up a TV spot. He stresses his military roots and efforts to generated jobs via the redevelopment of the old Plattsburgh AFB.

TN-01: Get ready for Roe vs. Davis III in the 1st. Ex-Rep. David Davis, who defeated current Rep. Phil Roe in the 2006 GOP primary and then lost the 2008 GOP primary to him (in this R+21 district), has been publicly blasting Roe's record.

NY-Lt. Gov: On Friday, Sept. 11th, New York's highest court, the Court of Appeals, heard oral arguments regarding David Paterson's appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lt. Governor. According to reports, Paterson's camp seemed to have gotten its most favorable treatment to date. Lawyers on both sides, says the NYT, expect a decision within two weeks, which would mean the end of this week or the beginning of next. One possibility is that the court could rule that Republican leader Dean Skelos simply didn't have standing to sue, which would leave the Ravitch appointment intact. (D)

NYC-Mayor: Marist finds that Democratic city Comptroller William Thompson, despite a convincing primary win, still trails Independent/Republican incumbent Mike Bloomberg in the general, 50-39 among RVs and 52-43 among LVs. It's still some improvement for Thompson, who trailed 48-35 among RVs in July.

Ads: Conservative PAC the Family Research Council has published its own target list for the 2010 cycle: Michael Bennet and Chris Dodd, plus the Missouri and Ohio open seats, in the Senate, and John Boccieri, Steve Driehaus, Parker Griffith, Mary Jo Kilroy, Ann Kirkpatrick, Betsy Markey, Walt Minnick, John Murtha, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, and Dina Titus in the House.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/21
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Dina Titus? Really?
She's got to be one of the safest freshmen.  She has a longstanding regional and statewide profile, and she knocked off one of the most difficult incumbents, in a district that was drawn as a tossup IIRC, in a county that has always been Democratic and that has trended rapidly towards us as well.  And I'm not aware of her even having a real challenger yet.

Her only worry that I can see is that Reid and Reid will drag her down.  And I still Just Don't Believe that Reid is going to lose at the end of the day, unless his base is also through with him that is.  But then, if the unemployment rate is the same in a year as it is today, all bets are off I guess.

Still, targeting Dina Titus ahead of even Jerry McNerney or Harry Mitchell seems silly to me, and I don't think those two are exceptionally vulnerable either.  If I've got only twelve House seats to target, none of those are on my list.

I wanna see some Bobby Bright and Frank Kratovil and Carol Shea-Porter, you FRC bitches!!  

Interestingly, there isn't one House sophomore on that list...

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


Agreed
Titus has always struck me as one of our safest incumbents.  While, as conspiracy notes below, she only won with 47%, it was a solid 5% win.

[ Parent ]
I'm working on a diary
Trying to work out the number of truly vulnerable Dems. The numbers so far are sobering to say the least.

[ Parent ]
I get 42
AL-02 - Bright
AL-05 - Griffith
AR-02 - Snyder
AZ-01 - Kirkpatrick
AZ-05 - Mitchell
CO-04 - Markey
CT-04 - Himes
FL-08 - Grayson
FL-24 - Kosmas
GA-08 - Marshall
GA-12 - Barrow
ID-01 - Minnick
IL-11 - Halvorson
IL-14 - Foster
LA-03 - OPEN
MD-01 - Kratovil
MI-07 - Schauer
MI-09 - Peters
MS-01 - Childers
NC-08 - Kissell
NH-01 - Shea-Porter
NH-02 - OPEN
NJ-03 - Adler
NM-02 - Teague
NV-03 - Titus
NY-13 - McMahon
NY-19 - Hall
NY-20 - Murphy
NY-24 - Arcuri
NY-29 - Massa
OH-01 - Driehaus
OH-15 - Kilroy
OH-16 - Boccieri
OH-18 - Space
PA-03 - Dahlkemper
PA-04 - Altmire
PA-10 - Carney
PA-07 - OPEN
TX-17 - Edwards
VA-02 - Nye
VA-05 - Periello
WI-08 - Kagen

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
How odd
I get also get 42! Well they do so it is THE answer. I have different races mind you and the 42 is the worst possible nightmare scenario. More in the diary when I get it finished.

[ Parent ]
Argh
"I also get 42! Well, they do say it is THE answer."

[ Parent ]
Ha!
I will eagerly await your diary to see what the differences are.  But the answer is always 42 - it is written.  I consider this pretty much a worst case too.

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
I had 40
And of those 40, I only see 22 seats where we are truly vulnerable.  

Overall, I identified 36 of the 42 you had as vulnerable.  There were 4 that I had on my list that probably could be removed (example:  PA-11).

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Why does everyone keep saying Halvorson is vulnerable????
She won in her district by A LOT and significantly outperformed Obama. I think that Halvorson could probably be considered lean D in a 1994 scenario.

[ Parent ]
She has a strong opponent
and it is an R district and probably an R year.  Granted she's a pretty good candidate.  Her margin over Marty Ozinga was inflated due to the fact that Marty Ozinga was a loser with some legal issues that made him look like a scumbag.  She was also riding some serious Obama coattails.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Out of those
Id say Himes is totally golden and set for life, believe it or not I think Kissel should be fine (the seat was made for a Democrat) and Kagen I think will be okay.  I think Space will be okay simply because the Republicans totally ceded the race in 08, had no real challenger giving him a 20% spread.  I dunno, I cant help but feel like incumbency will set in and he'll be taken care of.


[ Parent ]
Some disagreements
I think Himes (CT-04) is very unlikely to be defeated. He beat one of the most liberal Republicans (for a Republican nowadays), who was an incumbent. The district is very Democratic.

Hall in NY-19 is also unlikely to be really threatened, based on his record.

I also doubt McMahon (NY-13) is in danger. A really high-profile Republican would have to run against him. He's a conservative Democrat in a moderate Republican district, and I think that's a pretty good fit.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Hall has a tough campaign
Rep Hall in NY-19 has a tough opponent is Assemblyman Greg Ball. Ball is running a strong campaign and will make it a race.

NY-13 could be trouble if one of the Staten Island Republican councilman run (like James Oddo). But they past on it last year and might do so again. The big problem for McMahon could be if Rudy was on top of the GOP ticket. This could really bring out the GOP vote in Staten Island and Bay Ridge.

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[ Parent ]
McMahon is safe
He's the type of Democrat Staten Islanders, who are mostly registered Democrats, will vote for.

And after 2010, he'll get a safer seat.

The only way Republicans go after him is if they can or had a majority.


[ Parent ]
and by incumbents
I meant freshmen.

[ Parent ]
Nevada has a "None of the above" option
I can see Republicans banking on the idea that liberal dems will vote that option and a Republican can win with like 45%.  

[ Parent ]
I wonder if "None of the Above" has ever won an election
and what happens then?

[ Parent ]
The person with the next highest votes wins I believe
Pretty useless if true.  Though imagine how hard it would be to govern after losing to all of the above.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Yep. Here is the law:
"The statue establishes a permanent, non binding 'None of these candidates' ballot option for all state wide offices. For each of these offices, after the list of candidates, appears the ballot line 'None of these candidates'. Voters may vote either for a candidate or for 'None of these candidates', but not both. The candidate with the most votes is elected no matter how many votes are cast for 'None of these candidates'."  

Wouldn't want to be the poor soul who won by coming in second to none of the above.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Wikipedia's got an article on this option.
Here it is.

According to that article, None of These Candidates won the 1976 GOP congressional primary in a landslide.  


[ Parent ]
...
The None of These Candidates has played a spoiler effect in close races, such as in the 1998 Senate Election in Nevada, in which Democratic incumbent Harry Reid defeated Republican challenger John Ensign by only 428 votes, while None of These Candidates drew 7,749 votes.[1]

I lol'd at that one.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
They should just let 'None of the Above' serve
Put a pumpkin on his desk with a cowboy hat over it. Hed be as useful as many Senators ;).  

[ Parent ]
Until it starts to rot ;-)
But then, they could just put him in that formaldehyde tank they use to preserve their ultra-senior members. How else do you explain Thurmond, Helms, and Byrd lasting so long?

[ Parent ]
The Colbert Report
Should have a spoof on 'None of the Above' coming to Congress ;).  

[ Parent ]
None of These Candidates vs. Ficus
Round 1...CAMPAIGN!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Titus
She only won with 47% of the vote so I can understand why they would target her. Having said that it is a Dem leaning seat.

NH-Sen.
Can anyone explain to me why, despite apparently having no political ideology to speak of, Kelly Ayotte in recent polling has been ahead of Paul Hodes by more than at least 5 points? Is it the nature of NH as having a lot of Independent voters who don't care much about ideology? I know that the Free State Project has been trying to change the political makeup of the state for some time, so is that a factor in the recent polling numbers?

anyone who wants to chat about IA-Gov
Please stop by this thread (on the recent diary list).

I have to believe this is Branstad's high water mark. I don't like seeing Culver's re-elect number at least 15-20 points below his approval rating in just about every poll all year, though.


I can't imagine him losing
If he can stay at or above 50% approving of the job he is doing.

[ Parent ]
What the are real odds of Bill White winning Texas?
I know he has been a fairly popular mayor in Houston, but how well do you think that translates state wide?  I looked at some polls, and he only is leading in one instance ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U... ).

And who is more progressive of the two announced candidates (Former Comptroller John Sharp and Bill White)?

Im kinda fascinated with Texas politics, mainly due to the fact that Lyndon Johnson was such an effective whip in the early 50's.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


.
At this point, I have a feeling that the Senate primary will be a lot similar to the Obama/Clinton Primary, with Sharp winning the rural/exurban areas and White winning the urban areas.  However, if White doesn't win all the counties in the Greater Houston metro area, he must have screwed up really badly, as all the local news channels have always portrayed him in an extremely positive light.

That being said, Sharp is the more conservative of the two, and he's been playing that up a lot very recently in Eastern Texas.  White's membership in the Mayors Against Illegal Guns Coalition will not sit well in that area and the Panhandle.  


[ Parent ]
Except that Hillary Clinton was revered
among Latinos.  John Sharp, as far as I know, not so much.

[ Parent ]
White should just point out
Im against ILLEGAL guns, not just guns.

But try reasoning with tea baggers....


[ Parent ]
Exurban Dem vote?
There wont be too many of those ;).

[ Parent ]
He might do well in the conservative Houston burbs
But remains to be seen how he'll do elsewhere. Also Im not sure how popular he is even here, as i admittedly dont follow local politics. I guess just getting my news from 24 hr. news channels and the internet will do that to me ;). But generally I just dont have an interest in local politics, even though i will spend hours a day, sometimes, following national politics. I even have an interest in international politics. But anyway im not sure what the folks here in the burbs think of him nowadays. Especially on issues like crime and immigration.

[ Parent ]
Family Research Council
Must have a stick up their you-know-what pertaining to Ohio.  Kilroy, Boccieri, & Driehaus, plus the Senate seat?!  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

IIRC after the fine Reverend
J. Kenneth Blackwell got demolished by Strickland in November 2006, he went to work for the FRC (which is pretty much Tony Perkins, who is Jim Dobson's favorite protege) and became "Senior Fellow for Family Empowerment" there.

Blackwell thinks he can get the differential turnout of Religious Right voters in southern Ohio that will win those seats back.  My sense is that demographic is in slow but permanent decline overall; I doubt he can do it.


[ Parent ]
I would have liked to see a mention/tribute to the big blue victory in Texas 33-31


Tom Delay On "Dancing With The Stars"
Just a quick reminder that former House majority leader Tom Delay (R-TX), formerly one of the most powerful men in Congress and possibly America, will be a celebrity contestant tonight on the show aformentioned.

Anyone willing to discuss this incredible fall from grace, after watching the show, may post your comments here.

Dancing With The Stars Season Premiere begins tonight at 8 PM (EST). Enjoy!


a Family Research Council ad won't work in Connecticut
Connecticut isn't family-values-y. Dodd's electoral liability is he took a sweetheart mortgage from a company he was supposed to be regulating. FRC getting involved will probably help Dodd.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

If Simmons wins the primary,
FRC will stop spending money in Connecticut, anyway.

[ Parent ]
Walt Minnick is in a "conservative/moderate" district?
Last time I checked, it was nearly R+20.  That's hardcore conservative by any measure.

Walt Minnick
I think Rep. Minnick will lose in 2010 and there's very little to be done about it. His victory in 2008 was a fluke and whatever coattails Obama had in 2008 won't be there next year. In spite of Minnick's extremely conservative voting record (100% rating by the Club for Growth, I believe), his party brand will doom his re-election bid. To be honest, he might be better served by a statewide run against Sen. Crapo. Then he'd be better positioned for any future statewide run, maybe for governor.

[ Parent ]
Consumer Protection
I realize we don't discuss policy issues so much as election contests, but I am not going to be sad to Minnick go after this watered down consumer protection council he is pushing..  

[ Parent ]
Isnt Minnick already in his mid or late 60s, though?
He may think hed be too old to run for statewide office should he lose in 2010.

[ Parent ]
He's 67.
But then, so is Butch Otter.

[ Parent ]
He took out that ass Sali
so his work here is done.  (Unfortunately.)

[ Parent ]
MA-08, MA-Sen, Capuano
Well, see, there's this USPS branch post office in the MIT student center building, that's both profitable and frequently used by many, many people.  MIT, as you may know, is in Cambridge, MA, which is represented by the Honorable Mr. Capuano.

I've told my friends there that he might be interested in helping out his constituents.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


Sorry, I forgot the key detail
which is that the USPS has that branch on its list of branches that may be closed down.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]

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