I probably should know this, but it's early in the AM..

What does RTW stand for?

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by: vicupstate @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 11:38:08 AM UTC

Race to Watch

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by: admnok @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 11:52:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Um James

Your new Senate rankings have Barbara Boxer sitting in Arkansas, where she would be very out of place.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 11:55:47 AM UTC

I agree with your IA-Gov assessment

This is looking more likely to be competitive as opposed to a race to watch, but I still think Culver is favored.

I am concerned that Iowa tends to be late to enter and late to leave recessions, so even if things pick up nationally next year, we might not be feeling it yet in Iowa. On the other hand, Iowa's unemployment rate of 6.8 percent (very high by Iowa standards) is still low compared to the national average.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 14:15:40 PM UTC

Agree in every case

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 16:24:34 PM UTC

These moves were very appropriate

except that I would have moved AR-SEN to lean D rather than likely D.

A few quibbles with non-moves in the Governor's races.

(1) Either NJ-GOV and VA-GOV are both lean R or they are both tossups.  I tend to believe the former.  I don't think one is a lot more likely than the other right now.

(2) OR-GOV seems Likely D with Kitzhaber in.  Surprised that didn't move the needle for SSP rating.

(3) OH-GOV seemed Likely D all along.  Nothing has really changed except Q-poll giving Strickland a decent lead.

(4) AZ-GOV seems like a tossup, but it's very justifiable to leave it as Lean R with R incumbent in R state.  Strong candidate Goddard would seem to neutralize those advantages, but he's not fully announced and there's been no polling.

(5) MD-GOV seems like a RTW in case Ehrlich gets in.  Otherwise, it's safe.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 16:56:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NJ gov needs to be tossup

because even if Christie continues to lead in the polls up to election day, an upset could very easily happen.

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by: jmartin4s @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 17:04:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with

the second part of your statement, but it's hard not to rate it Lean R given all of the polling.  That said, given the D lean of the state, it could be a big shift between the polls and the reality a la Mosley-Braun, although she still came up a little short.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 17:07:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Speaking of AZ-Gov

I now have a personal vendetta against Brewer.

Towleroad reports on an article in the Arizona Daily Star that she rescinded state domestic partner benefits because she believes God put her in the position as AZ Gov.  (No bitch, it was Obama.)

The part that really got me pissed

'The problem with having a political agenda is that we give the impression that we have God's truth,' the governor said. 'We think we can convert God's truth into a political platform, a set of political issues, and that there is 'God's way' in our politics'

I personally like politicians to have a political agenda, it means they know what the hell they are doing!  Case in point, Bush, George.  

Go check out the link and read the whole thing and I suggest clicking the link the blog links to pertaining to the God quotes.  She suggests in the article that we need to cut the role of government and up the role of church's in taking care of social services for the poor, or picking up the slack she feels the government shouldnt be doing, essentially turning the social services our government requires to be carried out to volunteerism that churches may or may not take up.  She cites her having to cut subsidized health insurance for children in her state due to budgetary constraints.  NO FUCKING THANKS, I have more trust in my government being required to provide health insurance to children rather than Christians volunteering to provide health insurance to kids, which Id love to hear how she plans on having churches provide health insurance to random people.

When the hell is Goddard going to get in the race?  I pass around my bucks extremely sparingly but he's getting a $20.  

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 17:30:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Then there's this

Also eliminated are children of domestic partners, full-time students ages 23-24 and disabled adult dependents.

How many students are taking longer than four years to get a bachelor's degree now? I'm certainly one of them; if I lived in Arizona, I'd suddenly lose my father's health insurance. From what I've gathered, four years is becoming much less the rule than it was previously. Also, those who finish their bachelor's degrees in four years and then immediately go for master's degrees would be affected, too.

And disabled adult dependents? Wow. Piss off gays, students, and the disabled in one fell swoop. You're a winner, Jan.

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by: Politik @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 18:39:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jan Brewer

Sounds like Gov. Brewer is a proud member of the religious right. That should give us a little more insight into who she is as a politician. That's good, I might add, as Gov. Brewer has probably the lowest profile of any GOP governor in the country.

Nevertheless, I think it's important to put Brewer's remarks into context. She wasn't just blathering about "God's truth" at your average gubernatorial press conference; she was speaking to a gathering of pastors. That no doubt had something to do with it.

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by: NJCentrist @ Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 01:31:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

One of my dearest friends was hit by this

She graduated with a Masters here in Denver.  Then, after some non-profit gigs here for the both of them, her wife-despite-the-law wanted to go and get her PhD in library science.  They ended up in Flagstaff and, long-story short, because the program is part PhD/part actual work, the wife got state health insurance through Northern Arizona University.  Until now, so did my good friend.  Now...not so much...and she's saddled with a non-visible but existent preexisting condition too.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 02:32:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's awful.

Did she have health insurance when she was in Colorado, or was it just since she moved to Arizona?

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by: NJCentrist @ Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 04:21:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We still have DP

benefits in Colorado.  And Arizona had 'em until two or three weeks ago.  So, she's been okay for a long time. But now...I don't know how to help her or what her choices are.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 16:53:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Brewer's doing this

to stave off a primary challenge from the right.  Dean Martin and Jeff Flake are both sniffing around on the right, as is Joe Arpaio, who's to her left on everything but illegal immigration but has a profile to her right (and I'm also convinced he won't actually run).  She's trying to keep them from running against her.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 02:43:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My entirely personal thought

on OR-Gov is that I'd prefer to keep it at Lean D until we know that a) Walden isn't getting in, and, to a lesser extent, b) that DeFazio isn't getting in. Walden is the GOP's best shot, and he could be competitive, especially against the battered winner of a hard Dem primary. If those two are out and we're looking at Kitzhaber/Atkinson, it'd be Likely D, if not Safe.

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by: Crisitunity @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 18:07:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reasonable

You guys do a great job of avoiding assumptions in your ratings, and that is an example.  All of my quibbles are well within the realm of "reasonable minds may disagree."  I like your lists much better than Rothenberg or Cook or any of the others I have seen.  In fact, your Senate list is almost perfectly in line with what I'm thinking (again, I'm just a little less sanguine on Blanche Lincoln).

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 18:19:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

I much prefer SSP ratings to other ratings because you dont work off of assumptions, you work off of what is happening at the current time and it is much more so a snapshot as opposed to the Cooks and Sabatos who try to predict election day starting today it seems.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 18:45:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree with all as well!

Although Im expecting/hoping the WI-Gov race to move back to Lean D once we get our ducks in a row.  But at the same time, from doing my own redistricting for MN and getting pretty intimate with my data, I was able to answer why Obama won WI by 14% freakin points but only won MN by 10%, when in 2000 and 2004, we didnt have giant nail-biters like they did.  In WI, the key is seeing how the rural areas shift.  Milwaukee and Madison are small enough metro areas so as not to create big swaths of Republican exurbs nor large enough to have swingy suburbs that decide elections.

In WI, the area that decides elections are all of the rural areas.  I always use the Dkos Electoral Map to look at election results so I suggest to everyone to look at that state in 2000 or 2004 and compare it to 2008.  Obama carried nearly every single county and that's because the Republican exurbs and suburbs are all contained to one county, and it's only populated enough to support one CD.  

WI-3, WI-6, WI-7, and WI-8 I are all rural with nearly 40% of their populations being rural.  WI-3 Obama shifted the Dem margin by 14%, WI-6 by 14%, WI-7 12% and WI-8 he did 20% better than Kerry.  The largest shifts in the electorate occurred in the rural areas hence why we gotta make sure we have a candidate who can rock it out there.

Who are all of our people considering again?  Lt Gov Lawton, Rep Kind, who else?

(Kind would probably knock it out of the park then, representing one of the most rural-centric CD's in the state.)

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 17:11:25 PM UTC

I like Lawton a lot

and I think any dem would be favored to win unless Tommy Thompson decideds to run again.

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by: jmartin4s @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 17:16:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Would Thompson be hurt by

his moment in the presidential debates when he defended the rights of employers to fire workers for being gay, and then claimed he only gave that answer because all he could think about was how bad he needed to go to the bathroom?

He kind of came off as past it in the presidential race overall.  He's probably still popular enough in WI.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 17:20:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is Lawton all but announced?

Because my friend's friend is going to be managing her campaign so her running has been confirmed now through sources and such.  Just in case that left any doubt for anyone, although IIRC, Lawton herself didnt leave much doubt.

I dont know much about Lawton and Im kind of rooting for Kind just because then that leaves Baldwin wide open to replace Kohl.  (yada yada yada, I certainly know Baldwin will make the race way tougher for us than Kind will but I dunno, makes me understand why Davis is running down in Alabama much more so.)

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 17:34:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wisconsin was an anomaly

Where else did rural areas shift so strongly to Obama?  In most places, it was quite the opposite.

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by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 00:49:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA-Sen. a race to watch?

Um, I guess it might be a race to watch if you enjoy the sight of Carly Fiorina falling on her face repeatedly (which I do, for the record).

Seriously, the woman's a bigger gaffe machine than Joe Biden after a six-pack.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 22:14:54 PM UTC

Agreed.

A couple of years ago I was concerned about Boxer's reelection prospects, but now I am not worried at all, after the bottom fell out of Arnold's approvals early this year, and Fiorina being a walking disaster. What I thought was most hilarious was her saying that her campaign is a "referendum on Obama". Looks like she forgot California is not the nation as a whole, even though 1 out of every 8 Americans lives here. While Obama's approvals have been hovering around 50% nationwide, they still have yet to fall below 60% in California. How 'bout we make the Senate campaign next year a "referendum" on the California GOP (especially after DuVall-gate) and CEOs!

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 22:27:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY?

Whats up there? Do ya'll think it seems George Pataki is more serious or what?  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 23:53:36 PM UTC

I don't think Pataki can win

I've said it before, but he has the charisma of a toad. I don't see how he could have a shot of defeating attractive, charismatic Senator Gillibrand. I'll give you this, though: He could probably beat Paterson to get the Governorship back.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 05:32:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]