Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/14-16, likely voters):
Elizabeth Mitchell (D): 34
Les Otten (R): 28
Undecided: 38Elizabeth Mitchell (D): 35
Peter Mills (R): 15
Undecided: 50Elizabeth Mitchell (D): 35
Matt Jacobson (R): 14
Undecided: 51Michael Michaud (D): 33
Les Otten (R): 29
Undecided: 38Michael Michaud (D): 34
Peter Mills (R): 15
Undecided: 51Michael Michaud (D): 34
Matt Jacobson (R): 14
Undecided: 52Steve Rowe (D): 30
Les Otten (R): 31
Undecided: 39Steve Rowe (D): 31
Peter Mills (R): 15
Undecided: 54Steve Rowe (D): 31
Matt Jacobson (R): 14
Undecided: 55
(MoE: ±4%)
Research 2000 polled Maine to get a sense of where the anti-gay marriage initiative on the statewide ballot in November stands. The poll finds the initiative passing (where “yes” = a vote against gay marriage), but by a narrow 48-46 margin. As one might expect, the younger you are, the likelier you are to support gay marriage (18-29s are 43 yes, 52 no, while 60+ are 55 yes, 38 no), but there’s also a big disparity between the two congressional districts in the state (the more cosmopolitan 1st is 45 yes, 50 no, while the backwoodsy 2nd is 51 yes, 42 no).
As a bonus, they also threw in the first look anyone has taken at the Maine governor’s race for 2010, a race that has been particularly slow to take shape and where nobody terribly well-known is running. The results aren’t what you would call conclusive, with ‘undecided’ winning every race, but show the Dems with a decent margin in every permutation, except for a Steve Rowe/Les Otten matchup.
The players here are:
• Elizabeth “Libby” Mitchell: Democratic state Senate president, former state House speaker, and loser of the 1984 U.S. Senate election to William Cohen (she got into the race in August, so quietly that we at SSP didn’t even notice; the 69-year-old Mitchell would be Maine’s first female governor)
• Mike Michaud, Democratic Representative in ME-02 (has been rumored to be interested, but has taken no steps to run)
• Steve Rowe, former two-term Democratic Attorney General and former state House speaker (is officially in the race)
• Les Otten, Republican former co-owner of Boston Red Sox and of American Ski Company (has formed exploratory committee)
• Peter Mills, Republican state Senator and loser of the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary (is running)
• Matt Jacobson, Republican CEO of Maine & CO., a nonprofit that seeks to attract business to Maine and former president of St. Lawrence & Atlantic Railroad (is running)
RaceTracker Wiki: ME-Gov
Rosa Scarcelli, Dawn Allen, and Beth Edmonds are all exploring the race. This is becoming like the MN-Governor’s race where there’s too many candidates to do accurate polling. They gay marriage initiative is interesting – it will all come down to turnout it looks like, so who knows what will become of that. The pro-marriage folks really need a win here though to stop the irritating “every state has voted against gay marriage” talking point that NOM loves to use. Fuckers.
Kind of disturbing Rowe is losing to Otten considering they are likely the two frontrunners.