Missing a lot of candidates

Rosa Scarcelli, Dawn Allen, and Beth Edmonds are all exploring the race.  This is becoming like the MN-Governor's race where there's too many candidates to do accurate polling.  They gay marriage initiative is interesting - it will all come down to turnout it looks like, so who knows what will become of that.  The pro-marriage folks really need a win here though to stop the irritating "every state has voted against gay marriage" talking point that NOM loves to use.  Fuckers.

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by: DFLer @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 15:05:50 PM CDT

I expect NO in the marriage question

to be in the mid-50s. This poll is highly disappointing to me.

Democrats and liberals are setting the stage for the worst election night since 2004.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 15:18:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Which Really Isn't Saying Much...

...given the Dems' batting average since 2004. ;)

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by: colbycakes @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 15:41:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well for better or worse, there's a long way down

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by: andgarden @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 15:43:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Really?

I spend a lot of time in Maine and I expected YES to be in the mid 50's.

What made anyone think there would be that kind of support for gay marriage in Maine of all places?

Hell, I'd be willing to bet we got a 50/50 chance of a gay marriage amendment passing here in New York if it were put to the voters.  

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by: DTOzone @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 16:16:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I thought it'd be tough too

We're lucky Iowa wont allow this to happen.  They would've voted it down probably.

Maine just needs to not f it up, run a campaign like a candidate one, be responsive to the other side, attack when you need to.  You cant run this like an issue campaign where everything is positive and such, be hard hitting.  DO SOMETHING!

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by: Andrew @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 16:43:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think t he pro-marriage folks

are doing their part.  They had people on the ground almost immediately after the marriage bill was signed.  I'm actually pleased that it's within the margin of error - the worst thing that happened in California last year were those polls showing the No on 8 campaign up by 9 points in September, which lead to supporters letting their foot off the gas.  When will this vote occur though?  I was confused as to the exact timing of it, and if anything else is on the ballot.  If this were to take place during the Democratic primary or the general, you'd have to hope that there'd be increased progressive turnout to benefit the No campaign.

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by: DFLer @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 16:54:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

November elections

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by: DTOzone @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 18:18:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maine strikes me as being pro-gay marriage, though

At least in the year 2009. Even the blue collar voters there dont seem to be culturally conservative (besides guns, if thats even really considered a cultural issue). Although Rep. Michaud, who represents a more blue collar district, is actually pro-life. But maybe I am wrong about those types of voters. Also Im scratching my head at this part of the poll: the 18-29 electorate whos 43% or so 'yes' (against gay marriage). Okay maybe 18-39 but 18-29? Most voters in this age group, nationally anyway, are pretty darn pro-gay marriage. And I would think even moreso in a state like Maine. In fact, for the most part, most voters in this generation, which Im a part of, think gays and lesbians are just like everyone else and gay couples just like straight couples. We think quite differently on this issue than our parents and grandparents do.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 17:35:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maine has the disadvantage

of not being culturally diverse...there is a small gay population down around Freeport, but it's a holiday community.

One of the major factors in support for gay rights is knowing gay people...since there isn't a large gay community in Maine, Mainers aren't exposed to it and many still fear such a big leap.

A negative factor is that same-sex marriages are on hold until the vote, if they would have been allowed to go forward, we'd have a better chance as support skyrockets once people are exposed to same-sex unions and see there's nothing earthshattering about it.

Such was the case in Massachusetts and Spain, where majorities against same-sex marriage flipped soon afte legalization.  

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by: DTOzone @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 18:18:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maine also has a lot of Catholics

where same sex-sex is still a testy issue amongst the faithful.  The Archdiocese of Portland is also heavily involved in the campaign, which is probably having some effect in organizing folks and consolidating public opinion against marriage.

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by: DFLer @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 19:10:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It also doesn't help that Maine is older

There are a lot of old farts living in Maine who tend to be socially moderate and conservative.

I'd like to add, if we can defeat a gay marriage ban in Maine, then we can probably do it in all of the northeast.

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.

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by: DGM @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 20:32:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The last state in the NE to have it

will be Pennsylvania.  

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by: andgarden @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 01:15:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh yeah, I forgot about Pennsylvania

I always think of Pennsylvania as a midwestern state more than a northeastern state, but you're definitely right.

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.

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by: DGM @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 10:19:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The most populated part of the state

is in the Philadelphia region, which is much more like Connecticut than Ohio. But there are midwestern parts of the state.  

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by: andgarden @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 10:23:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

As long as the state senate is in Republican hands

they won't get a gay marriage bill through the legislature, and right now, Republican gerrymandering guarantees that it will stay in Republican hands. That's why it's so important for Rendell to be succeeded by a Democrat.

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by: Politik @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 10:35:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The legislative maps are drawn by

a bipartisan committee. It will take real, on the ground, political change and some luck before Democrats have a shot at taking the Senate. They're in a deep hole.

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by: andgarden @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 12:29:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The governor has veto power

over the final plan, though. The state supreme court, currently with a 5-4 Democratic majority, also picks the 5th person on the committee if the leaders of both parties in both houses can't pick a 5th person on their own.

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by: Politik @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 15:30:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Interesting,

Did the leaders not come up with a 5th person on their own last time? My recollection is that they drew incumbent protection maps. I would expect them to do so again.  

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by: andgarden @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 15:34:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure

as I wasn't of voting age the last redistricting period. I do remember that there was a lot of redistricting controversy as the Republicans were pushing a particularly partisan plan (PA-18, my congressional district, is simply awful...a family friend's summerhome an hour-and-a-half away is still in my own "suburban Pittsburgh" district). However, last redistricting round, Republican Governor Tom Ridge and the Republican-majority state supreme court could put their stamps of approval on the Republican-led state senate and Republican-led state house's plan. Perhaps last time, the Democratic leaders let themselves get rolled over regarding the fifth person, as they knew that eventually the Republicans would get their way since they held all the cards.

I am optimistic that redistricting will be better for Pennsylvania this time around. As of right now, the state supreme court is majority Democratic, and Democrats have a fighting chance (I'd say at least 50-50, but the field is still shaking out) to hold the governor's mansion and veto power over the plan. Also, even if Pennsylvania decides to adopt an incumbent protection plan, they would be following New York's lead of previously ensuring a Republican state senate and a Democratic state house. I certainly hope that it doesn't come to that, but at least that would be an improvement on the plan last time, which tried to preserve Republican control in both houses.

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by: Politik @ Sun Sep 20, 2009 at 11:49:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

What I can tell you about last time

is that with respect to the state house and state senate, the parties came to pretty easy agreement. The Congressional map is an entirely different story.  

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by: andgarden @ Sun Sep 20, 2009 at 13:10:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Somehow, I feel that incumbent protection

might not be the name of the game this time should the Democrats maintain their power in their respective branches, especially with how much trouble the state senate has been causing the governor (not that he's a peach to get along with, either). The most obvious example is the state budget: PA finally has a tentative budget agreement, the last of the 50 states to do so. For some reason, Pennsylvania seems to be more dysfunctional than other states with split houses. With a Democratic governor, house, and supreme court (currently 4D-3R, not 5D-4R as I previously said), the state senate would be the Republican's last holdout. If we could get to that point, I think that incumbent protection would go by the wayside and pure political warfare would ensue. From what I can gather, the Republicans have held the state senate since 1980, with the exception of a brief period from 1993-1995, when a Republican switched parties so the Democratic lieutenant governor could break a 25-25 tie. As such, I imagine that Democratic senators are hungry to be in the majority again. Granted, nothing is certain for the Democrats at this point (even control of the state house come 2011), while the Republicans seem certain to control the state senate no matter what.

On another note, I apologize for letting this conversation get so off-topic. As for Maine, I am cautiously optimistic about the referendum failing. I'm curious about how the various Democratic gubernatorial candidates have reacted to the same-sex marriage debate, as that would perhaps give some insight into where they think the electorate will come down be in November. Have they all embraced it? Is anyone lukewarm? One of my friends is a fan of Steve Rowe and said that he's out in front opposed to the referendum, but what about the others?

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by: Politik @ Sun Sep 20, 2009 at 19:53:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well....

Support for gay marriage legalization tends to shake out about 10% behind a state's current generic Democratic vote percentage for federal office.

Maine is in the high 50s for the latter- I'm guesstimating 59% in November of next year.  That makes the real popular split on marriage darn close to 50/50.  It looks as if it's going to be a matter of getting favorable turnout.

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by: Baystater @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:03:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

ME

Kind of disturbing Rowe is losing to Otten considering they are likely the two frontrunners.

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by: Tekzilla @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 09:32:22 AM CDT

With more undecideds than supporters of either candidate

I can't exactly consider this an indicator of anything except Mainers aren't paying attention to the governor's race now.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 10:17:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well..

Otten probably has higher name recognition as he was the co-owner of the Red Sox, and unlike most states, Maine's AG is not elected but appointed by the state legislature. So, it isn't surprising that most Mainers (Mainiacs?) haven't heard of him.

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by: corran horn @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 12:15:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

By one point, with 38% undecided

it's really not a big deal.  

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by: DTOzone @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 17:23:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

ME

In a blue state, where every other matchup has a lead for us, yes it is a big deal.

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by: Tekzilla @ Sun Sep 20, 2009 at 00:34:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, it's not

call me when the Republicans can manage to poll over 31%.  

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by: DTOzone @ Sun Sep 20, 2009 at 21:05:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]