Here are my SSP-style ratings for the California State Legislature in 2010. In the State Senate table, I listed all the districts, even-numbered, that are up, because there are only 20 of them, and as of now only 3 are somewhat competitive. In the State Assembly table, I listed only the districts that are or could be competitive since all 80 districts there are up. Open seats are in italics.
District details can be found at the 2010 California Race Tracker. Feel free to jump in and add any updates as you find them.
State Senate
| Solid D |
Likely D |
Lean D |
Toss-Up |
Lean R |
Likely R |
Solid R |
2 (Wiggins)
6 (Steinberg)
8 (Yee)
10 (Corbett)
20 (Yee)
22 (Cedillo)
24 (Romero)
26 (Price)
28 (Oropeza)
30 (R. Calderon)
32 (Negrete-McLeod)
40 (Ducheny) |
16 (Florez) |
34 (Correa) |
12 (Denham) |
|
|
4 (Aanestad)
14 (Cogdill)
18 (Ashburn)
36 (Hollingsworth)
38 (Wyland) |
State Assembly
| Likely D |
Lean D |
Toss-Up |
Lean R |
Likely R |
31 (Arambula)
78 (Block) |
15 (Buchanan)
80 (Perez) |
5 (Niello)
10 (Huber)
30 (Gilmore)
36 (Knight) |
26 (Berryhill)
33 (Blakeslee)
37 (A. Strickland)
63 (Emmerson)
65 (Cook)
68 (Tran)
72 (DuVall) |
3 (Logue)
38 (Smyth)
59 (Adams)
64 (Nestande)
70 (DeVore)
74 (Garrick)
75 (Fletcher) |
Below the flip are the Senate and Assembly districts’ Cook PVI’s, with the Board of Equalization and counties thrown in, just in case anyone is curious.
State Senate
| District |
Incumbent |
PVI |
| SD-01 |
Cox |
R+8.0 |
| SD-02 |
Wiggins |
D+15.4 |
| SD-03 |
Leno |
D+29.1 |
| SD-04 |
Aanestad |
R+10.1 |
| SD-05 |
Wolk |
D+7.4 |
| SD-06 |
Steinberg |
D+9.4 |
| SD-07 |
DeSaulnier |
D+13.2 |
| SD-08 |
Yee |
D+24.3 |
| SD-09 |
Hancock |
D+32.0 |
| SD-10 |
Corbett |
D+18.8 |
| SD-11 |
Simitian |
D+20.2 |
| SD-12 |
Denham |
D+2.3 |
| SD-13 |
Alquist |
D+19.2 |
| SD-14 |
Cogdill |
R+11.8 |
| SD-15 |
Maldonado |
D+5.2 |
| SD-16 |
Florez |
D+3.6 |
| SD-17 |
Runner |
R+6.0 |
| SD-18 |
Ashburn |
R+16.5 |
| SD-19 |
T. Strickland |
D+1.5 |
| SD-20 |
Padilla |
D+18.4 |
| SD-21 |
Liu |
D+15.6 |
| SD-22 |
Cedillo |
D+25.6 |
| SD-23 |
Pavley |
D+16.9 |
| SD-24 |
Romero |
D+16.4 |
| SD-25 |
Wright |
D+24.9 |
| SD-26 |
Price |
D+33.1 |
| SD-27 |
A. Lowenthal |
D+12.2 |
| SD-28 |
Oropeza |
D+13.8 |
| SD-29 |
Huff |
R+4.9 |
| SD-30 |
R. Calderon |
D+14.9 |
| SD-31 |
Dutton |
R+4.9 |
| SD-32 |
Negrete-McLeod |
D+13.1 |
| SD-33 |
Walters |
R+9.4 |
| SD-34 |
Correa |
D+1.5 |
| SD-35 |
Harman |
R+5.9 |
| SD-36 |
Hollingsworth |
R+12.4 |
| SD-37 |
Benoit |
R+4.9 |
| SD-38 |
Wyland |
R+6.2 |
| SD-39 |
Kehoe |
D+10.6 |
| SD-40 |
Ducheny |
D+6.9 |
State Assembly
| District |
Incumbent |
PVI |
| AD-01 |
Chesbro |
D+12.2 |
| AD-02 |
Nielsen |
R+14.9 |
| AD-03 |
Logue |
R+4.9 |
| AD-04 |
Gaines |
R+8.6 |
| AD-05 |
Niello |
R+4.0 |
| AD-06 |
Huffman |
D+23.0 |
| AD-07 |
Evans |
D+17.3 |
| AD-08 |
Yamada |
D+8.9 |
| AD-09 |
Jones |
D+19.1 |
| AD-10 |
Huber |
R+3.8 |
| AD-11 |
Torlakson |
D+16.4 |
| AD-12 |
Ma |
D+28.5 |
| AD-13 |
Ammiano |
D+36.0 |
| AD-14 |
Skinner |
D+31.6 |
| AD-15 |
Buchanan |
D+3.0 |
| AD-16 |
Swanson |
D+36.2 |
| AD-17 |
Galgiani |
D+4.0 |
| AD-18 |
Hayashi |
D+21.2 |
| AD-19 |
Hill |
D+20.5 |
| AD-20 |
Torrico |
D+17.5 |
| AD-21 |
Ruskin |
D+18.7 |
| AD-22 |
Fong |
D+19.1 |
| AD-23 |
Coto |
D+18.3 |
| AD-24 |
Beall |
D+14.5 |
| AD-25 |
T. Berryhill |
R+8.6 |
| AD-26 |
B. Berryhill |
R+4.5 |
| AD-27 |
Monning |
D+18.7 |
| AD-28 |
Caballero |
D+13.5 |
| AD-29 |
Villines |
R+10.2 |
| AD-30 |
Gilmore |
R+4.0 |
| AD-31 |
Arambula |
D+6.9 |
| AD-32 |
Fuller |
R+18.3 |
| AD-33 |
Blakeslee |
R+4.1 |
| AD-34 |
Conway |
R+13.7 |
| AD-35 |
Nava |
D+12.7 |
| AD-36 |
Knight |
R+6.6 |
| AD-37 |
A. Strickland |
R+3.1 |
| AD-38 |
Smyth |
R+3.0 |
| AD-39 |
Fuentes |
D+22.6 |
| AD-40 |
Blumenfield |
D+13.0 |
| AD-41 |
Brownley |
D+14.5 |
| AD-42 |
Feuer |
D+23.2 |
| AD-43 |
Krekorian |
D+16.5 |
| AD-44 |
Portantino |
D+13.4 |
| AD-45 |
de León |
D+29.0 |
| AD-46 |
J. Pérez |
D+31.7 |
| AD-47 |
Bass |
D+32.4 |
| AD-48 |
Davis |
D+37.0 |
| AD-49 |
Eng |
D+12.7 |
| AD-50 |
De La Torre |
D+23.2 |
| AD-51 |
Bradford |
D+27.9 |
| AD-52 |
Hall |
D+37.9 |
| AD-53 |
Lieu |
D+9.1 |
| AD-54 |
B. Lowenthal |
D+8.7 |
| AD-55 |
Furutani |
D+15.6 |
| AD-56 |
Mendoza |
D+8.0 |
| AD-57 |
Hernandez |
D+11.9 |
| AD-58 |
C. Calderon |
D+13.0 |
| AD-59 |
Adams |
R+7.1 |
| AD-60 |
Hagman |
R+8.3 |
| AD-61 |
Torres |
D+8.2 |
| AD-62 |
Carter |
D+16.0 |
| AD-63 |
Emmerson |
R+3.7 |
| AD-64 |
Nestande |
R+5.0 |
| AD-65 |
Cook |
R+7.4 |
| AD-66 |
Jeffries |
R+11.4 |
| AD-67 |
Silva |
R+7.2 |
| AD-68 |
Tran |
R+7.1 |
| AD-69 |
Solorio |
D+8.0 |
| AD-70 |
DeVore |
R+4.0 |
| AD-71 |
Miller |
R+10.9 |
| AD-72 |
Vacant |
R+7.2 |
| AD-73 |
Harkey |
R+7.8 |
| AD-74 |
Garrick |
R+4.3 |
| AD-75 |
Fletcher |
R+3.4 |
| AD-76 |
Saldaña |
D+12.3 |
| AD-77 |
Anderson |
R+11.4 |
| AD-78 |
Block |
D+5.1 |
| AD-79 |
Salas |
D+9.9 |
| AD-80 |
M. Perez |
D+5.1 |
Board of Equalization
| District |
Incumbent |
PVI |
| BOE-01 |
Yee |
D+19.1 |
| BOE-02 |
Leonard |
R+3.8 |
| BOE-03 |
Steel |
R+4.1 |
| BOE-04 |
Shea |
D+18.0 |
| County |
1996-2000 |
2000-2004 |
2004-2008 |
| Alameda |
D+18.8 |
D+24.0 |
D+26.3 |
| Alpine |
R+1.2 |
D+2.4 |
D+6.4 |
| Amador |
R+7.8 |
R+10.1 |
R+10.9 |
| Butte |
R+7.4 |
R+4.8 |
R+3.1 |
| Calaveras |
R+7.9 |
R+9.3 |
R+9.7 |
| Colusa |
R+15.3 |
R+16.8 |
R+14.4 |
| Contra Costa |
D+8.5 |
D+12.2 |
D+14.4 |
| Del Norte |
R+3.7 |
R+6.5 |
R+6.4 |
| El Dorado |
R+10.8 |
R+10.5 |
R+9.5 |
| Fresno |
R+6.0 |
R+6.0 |
R+4.8 |
| Glenn |
R+17.4 |
R+17.3 |
R+15.1 |
| Humboldt |
R+4.5 |
D+2.7 |
D+9.3 |
| Imperial |
D+5.6 |
D+4.6 |
D+6.7 |
| Inyo |
R+11.8 |
R+10.4 |
R+7.9 |
| Kern |
R+13.0 |
R+14.3 |
R+14.1 |
| Kings |
R+8.6 |
R+12.3 |
R+12.6 |
| Lake |
D+1.3 |
D+3.9 |
D+5.0 |
| Lassen |
R+2.8 |
R+7.0 |
R+20.1 |
| Los Angeles |
D+12.6 |
D+15.0 |
D+15.6 |
| Madera |
R+13.0 |
R+13.1 |
R+11.6 |
| Marin |
D+12.4 |
D+20.4 |
D+24.9 |
| Mariposa |
R+10.0 |
R+10.1 |
R+9.3 |
| Mendocino |
R+1.8 |
D+7.6 |
D+15.8 |
| Merced |
R+3.4 |
R+4.9 |
R+2.8 |
| Modoc |
R+18.4 |
R+23.1 |
R+21.8 |
| Mono |
R+5.0 |
R+1.9 |
D+1.8 |
| Monterey |
D+6.6 |
D+10.6 |
D+13.7 |
| Napa |
D+3.8 |
D+8.6 |
D+11.7 |
| Nevada |
R+2.9 |
R+4.8 |
R+2.1 |
| Orange |
R+9.5 |
R+8.5 |
R+6.8 |
| Placer |
R+11.7 |
R+11.7 |
R+10.4 |
| Plumas |
R+11.4 |
R+12.1 |
R+10.1 |
| Riverside |
R+4.2 |
R+5.3 |
R+4.9 |
| Sacramento |
D+0.7 |
D+1.1 |
D+3.3 |
| San Benito |
D+3.7 |
D+5.1 |
D+5.8 |
| San Bernardino |
R+2.8 |
R+2.7 |
R+2.7 |
| San Diego |
R+3.3 |
R+1.8 |
R+0.3 |
| San Francisco |
D+25.1 |
D+30.9 |
D+32.9 |
| San Joaquin |
R+2.0 |
R+1.8 |
R+0.6 |
| San Luis Obispo |
R+5.1 |
R+3.2 |
R+1.9 |
| San Mateo |
D+13.7 |
D+18.6 |
D+20.9 |
| Santa Barbara |
R+1.7 |
D+2.0 |
D+6.1 |
| Santa Clara |
D+10.0 |
D+14.0 |
D+16.1 |
| Santa Cruz |
D+10.2 |
D+18.9 |
D+24.6 |
| Shasta |
R+15.8 |
R+16.8 |
R+16.3 |
| Sierra |
R+13.2 |
R+14.5 |
R+13.0 |
| Siskiyou |
R+10.1 |
R+11.8 |
R+4.7 |
| Solano |
D+7.3 |
D+8.8 |
D+9.6 |
| Sonoma |
D+8.8 |
D+15.0 |
D+19.8 |
| Stanislaus |
R+3.9 |
R+6.2 |
R+5.6 |
| Sutter |
R+17.2 |
R+17.0 |
R+14.1 |
| Tehama |
R+12.7 |
R+15.7 |
R+15.3 |
| Trinity |
R+6.0 |
R+6.9 |
R+3.3 |
| Tulare |
R+12.8 |
R+13.9 |
R+13.3 |
| Tuolumne |
R+7.1 |
R+8.5 |
R+9.3 |
| Ventura |
R+2.7 |
R+0.4 |
D+0.8 |
| Yolo |
D+7.1 |
D+8.8 |
D+12.6 |
| Yuba |
R+12.0 |
R+14.7 |
R+13.4 |
We achieve 2/3 exactly in the Assembly but stay 1 short in the Senate?
But looks like a Repub leaner?