Suffolk (9/8-10, registered voters):
Martha Coakley (D): 47
Michael Capuano (D): 9
Stephen Lynch (D): 6
Alan Khazei (D): 3
Steve Pagliuca (D): 0
Martha Coakley (D): 54
Scott Brown (R): 24
Michael Capuano (D): 36
Scott Brown (R): 28
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Suffolk finds what Rasmussen found last week -- Martha Coakley, the only statewide official and only woman in the hunt for the special election to fill the open Senate seat, has a big lead on all her primary opponents. There are a few method problems here: first, while the poll was in mid-stream, Suffolk pulled out Rep. Stephen Lynch and added Steve Pagliuca (which didn't stop Pagliuca from managing to get absolutely no votes). Also, it's unclear from their writeup who they were asking the Democratic primary question to: only registered Democrats, or unenrolled voters as well (who, in Massachusetts, can opt to pick a Democratic ballot). Clearly those problems didn't seem to have too much effect on the poll's finding of a huge lead for Coakley, though.
Coakley has a 53/16 favorable; Michael Capuano, by contrast, isn't well-known and barely in positive territory at 16/14 (which would explain why he polls worse in the general against Republican Scott Brown than does Coakley). Even with Coakley's seeming popularity, the Democrats in the sample still say they would have voted for ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy by a wide margin if he'd gotten into the race, 59-25. The sample also approves of changing the law to accommodate a temporary appointment Senator, 55-41.
A few other Massachusetts items of note: a vote is expected today in the state House on the issue of changing the law to allow a temporary appointment, and debate is currently underway. The projected timeline, accounting for anticipated Republican procedural stalling tactics, is final passage on Sep. 24.
Stephen Pagliuca is making his entry into the Democratic primary official today. The co-owner of the Boston Celtics and also managing director at Bain Capital, who's worth $400 million, will obviously be able to self-fund. He'll need to find a way to improve on his 0% somehow, though... although his support for fellow Bain brain Mitt Romney in 1994 over Ted Kennedy and of William Weld over John Kerry in 1996 may make it difficult to sell the state's Democratic base on believing his conversion (he became a Democrat in 1998).
Finally, Michael Capuano isn't wasting any time dipping into his big stash of House dollars and hitting the airwaves, releasing his first TV ad. He needs to act early to introduce himself to most of the state's voters and stake out the field's left flank, while well-known but cash-poor Coakley is still scrambling to put together a warchest. Capuano hasn't even formally announced his candidacy, which he'll do tomorrow.
RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen |
