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MA-Sen: Coakley Has Big Lead in Primary

by: Crisitunity

Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 3:54 PM EDT

Suffolk (9/8-10, registered voters):

Martha Coakley (D): 47
Michael Capuano (D): 9
Stephen Lynch (D): 6
Alan Khazei (D): 3
Steve Pagliuca (D): 0
Martha Coakley (D): 54
Scott Brown (R): 24
Michael Capuano (D): 36
Scott Brown (R): 28
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Suffolk finds what Rasmussen found last week -- Martha Coakley, the only statewide official and only woman in the hunt for the special election to fill the open Senate seat, has a big lead on all her primary opponents. There are a few method problems here: first, while the poll was in mid-stream, Suffolk pulled out Rep. Stephen Lynch and added Steve Pagliuca (which didn't stop Pagliuca from managing to get absolutely no votes). Also, it's unclear from their writeup who they were asking the Democratic primary question to: only registered Democrats, or unenrolled voters as well (who, in Massachusetts, can opt to pick a Democratic ballot). Clearly those problems didn't seem to have too much effect on the poll's finding of a huge lead for Coakley, though.

Coakley has a 53/16 favorable; Michael Capuano, by contrast, isn't well-known and barely in positive territory at 16/14 (which would explain why he polls worse in the general against Republican Scott Brown than does Coakley). Even with Coakley's seeming popularity, the Democrats in the sample still say they would have voted for ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy by a wide margin if he'd gotten into the race, 59-25. The sample also approves of changing the law to accommodate a temporary appointment Senator, 55-41.

A few other Massachusetts items of note: a vote is expected today in the state House on the issue of changing the law to allow a temporary appointment, and debate is currently underway. The projected timeline, accounting for anticipated Republican procedural stalling tactics, is final passage on Sep. 24.

Stephen Pagliuca is making his entry into the Democratic primary official today. The co-owner of the Boston Celtics and also managing director at Bain Capital, who's worth $400 million, will obviously be able to self-fund. He'll need to find a way to improve on his 0% somehow, though... although his support for fellow Bain brain Mitt Romney in 1994 over Ted Kennedy and of William Weld over John Kerry in 1996 may make it difficult to sell the state's Democratic base on believing his conversion (he became a Democrat in 1998).

Finally, Michael Capuano isn't wasting any time dipping into his big stash of House dollars and hitting the airwaves, releasing his first TV ad. He needs to act early to introduce himself to most of the state's voters and stake out the field's left flank, while well-known but cash-poor Coakley is still scrambling to put together a warchest. Capuano hasn't even formally announced his candidacy, which he'll do tomorrow.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen

Crisitunity :: MA-Sen: Coakley Has Big Lead in Primary

Tags: MA-Sen, Polls, Martha Coakley, Michael Capuano, Stephen Lynch, Alan Khazei, Stephen Pagliuca, Scott Brown, (All Tags)

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MA-Sen: Coakley Has Big Lead in Primary | 25 comments

First reaction: damn.

Second reaction: tentatively hopeful.

Capuano's task is to make up ground with the 90% of the state that doesn't know who he is, and do it quickly, before Coakley gets it together. It's difficult, but not impossible, though Coakley already being well known is a huge advantage in a media market this expensive.

I've long had a sinking feeling that Coakley will win this thing, and I don't see anything to change that yet. Even with a more reputable pollster than Suffolk, I expect we'd see a similar result. Still, it's a few months to the end, so I haven't totally given up hope yet.

by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 15:05:24 PM CDT

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Crosstabs

here.

by: andgarden @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 15:09:46 PM CDT

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BTW, the poll shows majority support

among the ENTIRE ELECTORATE in changing the law to allow for a temporary appointment.

by: andgarden @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 15:13:07 PM CDT

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Vote for Coakley

She will make an excellent, sharp, and effective senator

by: jmartin4s @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 15:18:09 PM CDT

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I've been thinking this is Coakley's to lose.

I don't see the problems with her a lot of folks around here seem to. Personally, I think she'll be a great senator.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

by: ARDem @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 15:39:43 PM CDT

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Amy Klobuchar

Klobuchar was just a DA and she went on to become a senator with some of the highest approval ratings in the country. Other senator that have the same background that Coakley does include Jeff Bingaman, Sheldon Whitehouse, and the horrible John Cornyn. I think Mitch McConnell may have also been a DA. This proves that Capuano's argument that Coakley does not have enough legislative experience is pure BS.

by: jmartin4s @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 16:00:38 PM CDT

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Arlen Specter was Philadelphia DA

Although he was in the House, Tom Udall was New Mexico AG, Ken Salazar was Colorado AG, Jeff Sessions was Alabama AG, and Joe Lieberman was Connecticut AG, though I think he might have served in the Connecticut legislature too.

by: DTOzone @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 17:01:22 PM CDT

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Udall was also a congressman before getting elected

All of your other points are decent, but Udall didnt' just jump from AG to Senator.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

by: DGM @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 17:22:08 PM CDT

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Right.

Lieberman was a state senator (& majority leader) in the 1970s. He also ran (at the state convention) for the 1978 nomination for Lt. Gov. Unfortunately for him, he lost--the governor died in office, which would have made him governor at 38.

by: davybaby @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 17:53:41 PM CDT

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Mark Pryor went from Arkansas AG to the Senate

Roland Burris was the Illinois Attorney General... okay, maybe that's not the best example.

Kerry was a prosecutor in the Middlesex County DA's office before being Lt. Governor.

Claire McCaskill was the Jackson County Prosecutor.

Bingaman was also the NM AG.

So basically there's plenty of precedent for a prosecutor going straight to the Senate.

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 18:23:48 PM CDT

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Basically my point of this thread is that

Capuano's argument that she cannot be a senator because she has no legislative experience has no merit at all. In addition, some of the criticism on this site about Coakley has been rediculous. She is just as progressive if not more than Capuano. In addition, she favors the public optipon and the employee free choice act. She is not rich at all and will not be a senator involved with the special interest. Coakley huge leads in the polls doesn't come just from statewide recognition or being a woman, it comes from years of public service and fighting for the citizens of massachusetts. I don't see any evidence for why Capuano would be any better a senator than her.

by: jmartin4s @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 18:57:31 PM CDT

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Im gonna agree with this

At first, I wasnt too keen on her until I realized, oh, all the criticism about her is kind of dumb so maybe I should just see what happens.

It's just so weird that here we thought it'd be a giant shit show of candidates stumbling over each other to get in the race and its the opposite.

by: Andrew @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 09:01:47 AM CDT

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Capuano goes too far

As someone who isn't a resident of Massachusetts, I do wonder, however, what Coakley believes in. AG is not a spot where your ideological convictions (well, maybe save on death penalty issues) emerge easily. That certainly doesn't mean she can't and shouldn't win, but it leaves me scratching my head, saying, "what would she be like? I'm just not sure."

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 12:19:36 PM CDT

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People are wonderingt

the same thing about Kelly Ayotte in NH, although she is much lower profile than Coakley. But its not really Coakley's fault, as no one can expect an AG to just say, in interviews (before she was running for Sen, of course), 'oh I believe in this issue...even though it has nothing to do with my job at hand'.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 21:33:52 PM CDT

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Fair point

If it isn't relevant to their office, then a statewide official shouldn't be expected to give a statement on every issue. Now, if it is relevant, like say environmental protection in Coakley's case, then she should have something to say.

I'd add that Ayotte has a bigger problem in that she is an appointed official, and generally appointees have way lower profiles than elected officials.

by: corran horn @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 08:58:33 AM CDT

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Her wealth

Im not saying you think its an issue but I'll just say that MA voters probably dont care about the size of her bank account. As you cant get much richer than, say, Ted Kennedy and Mitt Romney and Kerry himself, through his wife, is pretty rich. Im not sure about Patrick's assets, though.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 21:30:43 PM CDT

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Obviously

Romney isnt popular today but he was once elected statewide, so thats what I mean.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 21:31:19 PM CDT

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Furthermore

Pat Leahy, DA in Chittenden County (Burlington)

by: DTOzone @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 17:11:09 PM CDT

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Will Joe Kennedy endorse anyone?

I normally don't think pol's endorsements matter much.
But in this special election it would be big.

by: homerun @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 16:10:37 PM CDT

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If he was to endorse anyone it would be Capuano

Who hold's his old seat in district 8, and apparently who he's close with. Since Capuano did say he wouldn't run if Kennedy got into the race. Also he would have another ulterior motive. If Capuano get's elected, that of course triggers a special election for Capuano's seat. Joe has two twin son's and one of them might make a run for the seat.

by: Democrat2010 @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 16:18:30 PM CDT

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What's Pagliuca up to?

Is he hoping the 2 frontrunners bloody each other up in a nasty negative campaign so badly, that he could slip through at the finish?

And how can a self-described "progressive" Dem have been a Repub just a mere decade ago? Normally, becoming super wealthy makes you MORE conservative, not less conservative.

by: homerun @ Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 16:51:52 PM CDT

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He is/was with Baine Capital

so you can bet that Mittens is involved in some way. That some sort of retaliation game is afoot would be my guess.

by: Baystater @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 00:58:39 AM CDT

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To be fair

Wasnt Ned Lamont once a Republican?

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 21:35:31 PM CDT

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New England

Gotta love it. Nowhere else in the country could your introductory ad tout your opposition to the death penalty, support of gay marriage and commitment to a strong public option.

And, no, I don't think that Joe Kennedy II will endorse, or that any prominent Kennedy will, for that matter. However, it may become an open secret that the family is supporting Capuano, and just the whispers of it could be a great boon to his campaign.

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 04:37:08 AM CDT

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Early polling is early.

At this point polls are just about name recognition. Need time to see how they build up their visibility and of course how they tear each other down.

by: Taget @ Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 06:26:37 AM CDT

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MA-Sen: Coakley Has Big Lead in Primary | 25 comments