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NYC Primary Predictions & Results Thread

by: Ben

Tue Sep 15, 2009 at 6:13 PM EDT


10:52PM: Take this however you like: I count at least five NYC City Council incumbents who've lost tonight: Alan Gerson (District 1), Maria Baez (14), Helen Sears (25), Kendall Stewart (45), and Kenneth Mitchell (49). Another, Thomas White (28), is currently losing by three votes with a few precincts outstanding. Four more incumbents won with less than 50%, and the City Council Speaker, Christine Quinn, won with about 53%.

10:38PM (David): Results here. Cyrus Vance wins the DA's race, and Bill Thompson wins the mayoral primary. With most of the vote counted, it looks like the Comptroller's race will go to a run-off between John Liu and David Yassky. The big surprise is probably Bill DeBlasio leading the Public Advocate's race over Mark Green - this one also looks destined for a runoff.

For those of you who live in New York City, or have moved here in anticipation of DavidNYC's eventual primary challenge to someone or other, today is the long-awaited 2009 primary.

Because of the city's geographic complexity, we're voting on everything from district leader to district attorney, from city council to a special assembly race. Because of the city's recent political complexity (largely due to the controversial term limits extension), there are also many more races than usual with a pack of challengers.

Counting just the city races (not county races like D.A. or state races like Assembly), we have 152 candidates today. How many can you vote for?

The major contested races are:

  • Mayor
  • Public Advocate
  • Comptroller
  • Manhattan District Attorney
  • Queens Borough President
  • Special election for NY AD 38
  • A cornucopia of City Council matchups
  • Your favorite race that I forgot

This is New York. Nobody knows what's going on. But let's hear your predictions. Be sure to show your work.

Polls close at 9pm. Don't forget to vote in the actual booths as well as in the comments area below.
Ben :: NYC Primary Predictions & Results Thread
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NYC Primary Predictions & Results Thread | 72 comments
I am predicting
that New Yorkers will sleep more soundly knowing that Mark Green is one heart beat away from being the Mayor. Old Yorkers too.
No predictions here
But I've decided to vote for:

Tony Avella for Mayor (all indications are that he'll lose, and I also figure to vote for Bloomberg in the general election)

John Liu for Comptroller (I just watched playback of the Comptroller's debate, found him and Weprin the most forthright and like his politics better, because he supported congestion pricing)

Mark Green for Public Advocate (he was good in that role previously)

Richard Aborn for Manhattan DA (Vance is favored, and I have nothing against him but like Aborn)

I am sorry to say that I still don't know enough about Manhattan Borough President to choose but I'm not sure the office is important enough to care much; lousy politicians like Dinkins didn't have enough power to do harm in that position.

I am also still undecided about 3rd City Council District, where Christine Quinn is the incumbent. I have nothing against her, but Yetta Kurland looks good. I may have to wait until I get in the polling booth to decide. I think Quinn will win, though. She has two opponents, and she's City Council President.

I'm not sure who else is on the ballot; perhaps school board members, who I doubt I know anything about.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

Out of curiosity
Why are you so sour on Bill Thompson that you'd even vote for Bloombo over him?

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
What makes him reliable in dealing with finances
at a time like this? Was he a great Board of Ed President or Comptroller? Has he shown any great talent for inspired leadership? Bloomberg is not perfect and no magician, but he's shown that he's willing to meet everybody, and he isn't a machine politician. I'm not confident that Thompson would be as good. Maybe another position or another time. Not this position, and not now.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I'm really rather stunned by this
I don't want to belabor the point since I know it's off-topic, but Bloomberg is a former Republican, endorsed Bush and McCain, cheated on his wife, broke term limits so he could rule NYC as his personal fiefdom, and has had a poor relationship with unions.  He's using the Mayor's office as a springboard for a right-leaning run for President.  I don't care about Thompson, but I'll support anyone who isn't Bloomberg.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg
Is a former Democrat, a former Republican, and now an independent running on the Republican line. Meanwhile, his politics, in terms of how he runs the city, have never changed. Name the last non-machine Democrat who ran successfully for Mayor of New York. Maybe Koch, whose first couple of terms were arguably not too bad, but who was done in by shooting his mouth off several times too many and corruption among many of his appointees (plus the Tompkins Square Park Police Riot) in his third term.

I don't give a damn about his personal behavior, because he is socially tolerant and nothing close to a Religious Right type. Did you give a damn about Clinton's personal behavior, except inasmuch as it gave the right wingers a pretext for their impeachment charade, which would never happen in New York?

I oppose term limits on principle and believe I should be able to vote for any U.S. citizen New York City resident I like. I don't like that the City Council voted out the results of two popular referenda, but I don't see why that should cause me to vote against the candidate I consider best.

He has very close to absolutely zero chance of becoming President and probably doesn't want the job. I actually think the idea that a Mayor of New York could win the presidency is pretty absurd. Giuliani should have known that.

And since you live in New York, you may not care if we get another disastrous machine politician like Dinkins, but I do, and especially at this time of severe economic stress.

If Avella were to win the primary tonight, I'd consider him, because he promises to shake everything up. But I sure don't want a mediocre, traditional patronage machine politician. I don't see any reason to vote for Thompson.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Avella is the best of the bunch by far
he is the only candidate would stand up to developers and other corporations.

There is also apparently a close race in Buffalo, between developer-backed (and African-American) mayor Byron Brown and Mickey Kearns.  Unfortunately this race is also being split across racial lines.

[ Parent ]
Pro-landlords, developers
It's a sad fact that any Mayor of New York seems to automatically be pro-landlord. But given that, I have to choose from those who are more or less competent and better or worse on other policies.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Avella's problem
is that he's probably more conservative than Bloomberg on other issues...although I love how he takes on developers, which is important in his part of Queens. He really stepped in it on immigration in his council district though.
[ Parent ]
Tell me more about that
I was unaware of that.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
The immigration thing?
Well, his district is mostly white Italian/Irish with a growing Asian minority migrating out of Flushing. He made  a big deal in 2004 about some of the store signs in his district being in Chinese/Korean, but no English translation or the English translation being smaller than the foreign words. That didn't go over well with the Asian minority in the community. He said something at a local community meeting about being "taken over" by Asians...he quickly walked it back by saying he was just repeating what a constituent said, not that he agreed with it. It never really made news outside of the district.

He sorta saved himself though in 2007 when two white kids beat up Asian kids and he called them "neanderthals"  

[ Parent ]
Not too good
I don't like language wars. They were bad 100 years ago, too, when the complaints were about signs in Yiddish.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Since you don't live in New York
That's what I meant. :-)

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Ditto
Right on Pan!

I couldn't agree with you more. (Except the part about Koch. He as NOT a machine pol but rather built his career as a Reform Democrat fighting corrupt machine politics.)

NYC politics is not Dem vs Rep but machine vs reform.

Besides historically Republicans in NYC are more progressive, liberal and reform oriented than blue dog Dems elsewhere in the country. NYC was Rockefeller Republican birthplace.

Lindsay, LaGardia, Javitz were all Reps and liberal icons. Even Rudy 1st ran as the candidate of the Liberal Party of NY.

Most Democrats elsewhere in the US would love to have a Democrat run who was as liberal as Bloomberg. In fact if he had a (D) next to his name most people on this board would be begging him to run for President.

He is really just a good governement techoncrat and his party label doesn't really matter. He only ran as a Republican to avoid a Democratic primary which in NYC is controlled by party insiders and the municipal unions.



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[ Parent ]
I meant to cite Koch as a non-machine politician
Sorry if that wasn't clear.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Machine politicians
Any good politician is a "machine politician;" the only question is whether they've built their own machine or are part of someone else's.
[ Parent ]
That sounds good
But it's wrong. Giuliani had no machine and Bloomberg has no machine. All he has is loads of money.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
btw, glad for the support
I realize that supporting politicians running on the Republican line is not a popular position on this site, but the fact is, many, many liberal Democrats like you and me will be voting for him come election day, and that's why he'll win by a landslide. Even my father, who probably has never voted for any Republican, plans on voting for him and actually talked me down from my principled opposition to the procedure whereby the City Council extended term limits to three terms.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Just to clarify
And then I'll let it rest: I did care very much about Bill Clinton's affairs.  Someone who lies to those closest to him isn't someone we can trust to represent us.  That said, the response of the Republicans was far worse.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
I care about public morality
How someone governs, whether they are corrupt or not. I don't care about private morality, except in my personal life.

I believe G.W. Bush was faithful to his wife, and certainly F.D.R. was not. That's not a close choice for me. I don't even want to know about politicians' personal affairs unless they are either hypocritical morality policemen or have done something really bad (rape, assault, etc.).

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
You know I really don't care that he might have cheated on his first wife
 In fact I didn't even know that until you posted it. I can understand some of the other reasons you posted. Especially with the term limits which I did find rather sleazy. I think someones personal life is there business and there business alone. Although I do get pissed off when people like Sanford and Ensign who made there careers advocating family values and then it's revealed that they have not exactly been living up to those values.
[ Parent ]
I only care
if it's someone running on a family values platform and is being a hypocrite...see John Ensign, David Vitter.

Bloomberg hasn't though, so his affairs don't concern me.  

[ Parent ]
Oh absolutely
That's why Sanford and Ensign just make my blood pressure rise. They attacked Clinton, called for his resignation. Fast forward 10 years, and they have been caught with their pants down. I mean it's just so hypocritical. And the funny thing is I probably would have felt sorry for them if they hadn't run on a family values platform. Because hey we don't know what goes on in a marriage between two people. There are two sides to every story. That's just my two cents.
[ Parent ]
I didn't know, either
All I knew was that he was divorced.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Turns out, I stil am not in the 3rd City Council District
So I wonder why Yetty Kurland sent me all those emails. I'm in the 2nd District and voted for Juan Pagan against the incumbent, Rosie Mendez.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
My predictions
Thompson wins outright for Mayor, then gets crushed in the general election by Bloomberg.

Green and de Blasio go to a runoff for Public Advocate. The winner of the runoff immediately starts planning for a Mayoral run in 2013, if Bloomberg hasn't succeed in dismantling the office of PA by then.

Liu and Yassky go to a runoff for Comptroller. If not Yassky then Katz. My best guess is then Liu will win in the runoff since he will run up the outer borough and ethnic vote. Black voters in particular are very sour to Yassky ever since he ran for Congress in 2006.

Vance wins outright for DA.

There is a bit of bias here, I voted for Thompson, de Blasio, Yassky and Vance.

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)

Why the bitterness on Yassky?
I have my own problems with him. He refused to answer whichever questions he was asked in the debate that he didn't like, just harping on talking points - quite apart from the push poll I got. But I had no knowledge of him before this campaign for Comptroller.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Yassky ran for Congress in 2006
to replace Major Owens and nearly came close to winning, but Yvette Clarke pulled it out. There was some, shall we say, TN-09-type unpleasantness.  
[ Parent ]
TN-09-type unpleasantness
Nicely put. And sadly all too accurate. That was one ugly race.
[ Parent ]
Well for context
Cohen lived and lives in his district so far as I know. Yassky moved into the district for the purpose of running for congress. Most of the attacks against him were completely unjustified, and I did vote for him. The ugly was the same nevertheless.

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yassky's council district
overlapped into the Congressional district. I think he lived a few blocks out of it.  
[ Parent ]
My predicitions
Thompson will win for Mayor outright...easily

Mark Green will be forced into a runoff with de Blasio or Gioia, I'm hoping Gioia.

Liu will be forced into a runoff against Katz.

Cyrus Vance will win Manhattan DA

Helen Marshall will survive in the Queens Borough President primary

Mike Miller will trounce his opponent in AD38.

Hmm...
Thompson blows out Avella by about a 3-1 margin.

Green BARELY makes it over the 40% mark to escape a contentious run-off.

Liu takes first, but not by enough of a margin to escape a run-off with Yassky.

Vance wins by high single-digits over Snyder, who's also in the high single-digits over Aborn.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Bloomberg write-ins
I predict Bloomberg write-ins in the Dem primary to be VERY high. Maybe even approaching double digits.

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what I'm interested in
looking at the results is how few incumbents look like they're going to lose tonight. I guess the term limits fracas wasn't as big of an issue as everyone thought.  
dumb question...
is there a website with results somewhere?
[ Parent ]
May there is a God after all
With 65 percent of precincts reporting, Councilman Bill de Blasio had a slight lead with 32 percent of the vote, compared with 31 percent for Mark Green

meh, it's going to a runoff
and de Blasio will have to take out Green there.

He could do it if he gets Gioia's supporters.  

[ Parent ]
So ok
Bill Thompson easily won the primary for Mayor.

Cy Vance won the race for Manhattan DA.

So far, only three city councilmembers have been defeated; Helen Sears of Woodside, Queens and Alan Gershon of Lower Manhattan, and Kenneth Mitchell in Staten Island (who holds the seat formally held by Congressman Mike McMahon) is behind.  A couple others will face runoffs.

I suspect at least one will be defeated in a general election, Republican Eric Ulrich of Queens, although I would look out for potential losses in two council seats; the aforementioned seat in Staten Island, and Liz Crowley's seat in Queens.

As for AD38, results still coming in, but the Democrat, Mike Miller, looks like he's wiping the floor with the Republican.  

Update
Yassky and Liu look like they are going to a runoff for the Comptroller

De Blasio is running ahead of Green, and will go to a runoff as well. This one definitely speaks to the power of the Working Family Party's GOTV staff.

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)

[ Parent ]
Runoffs
I know that citywide races require the candidate to get 40% of the vote to avoid a runoff. Do counsel members also need to break 40% or do they just need a plurality of the vote to win the primary?

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)
Good Q
This article says it only applies to the three city-wide posts: mayor, public advocate, and comptroller.
[ Parent ]
Runoffs are only for citywide races
For everything else, a plurality is good.  
[ Parent ]
Then indeed
five members lost their seats...Thomas White survived by six votes. There may be a recount there, but I suspect the six vote margin stands.

that also means that Kevin Kim, who is of Korean descent, wins Tony Avella's old council seat...interesting.

[ Parent ]
6 votes means nothing now
NYC board of elections won't even open or count absentee and paper ballots for at least 2 weeks. A 6 vote lead at this point means almost nothing.

As for Kevin Kim don't be too sure about him winning. Before Avella this seat was held by a Republican. There is a strong GOP candidate running in the district who has the Indendence, Conservative and Libertarian lines as well.


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[ Parent ]
Amazed that Green is coming in second
It's not hard to imagine that this is his political death.  
You know
I would have thought that...

Losing to Bill Green in 1980,
Losing to Al D'Amato in 1986,
Losing to Chuck Schumer in 1998,
Losing to Michael fucking Bloomberg in 2001, and
Losing to Andrew Cuomo in 2006

Would have meant his political death. I would say that I'd hope DeBlasio could drive the final stake in this time... but Mark Green does not seem to be deterred by losing. Badly. A lot.

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
He's a kind of perpetual candidate who's well known and occasionally wins. Strange combination.  
[ Parent ]
He got lucky once
When he last won, Chuck Schumer was still in the House, Patrick Ewing was still in the NBA, Monica Lewinsky was still incognito, and James L. was still in short pants.
[ Parent ]
Well didn't he create
the Public Advocate job just for himself?  
[ Parent ]
I thought that the City Council
Created that for Andrew Stein, who then bailed on politics altogether.
[ Parent ]
He bailed on politics
and nailed Ann Coulter.
[ Parent ]
Reverse Drop-off effect
According to the latest, unofficial numbers from NY1, 311,491 votes were cast in the Democratic primary for mayor.

354,293 votes were cast in the primary for comptroller, and 347,293 votes were cast in the comptroller race.

That means there was a 40,000 vote reverse drop off.

Is this the Bloomberg write-in vote in the Democratic primary? If so that would be huge.

Also got to believe a big chunk of 25,976 votes Roland Rogers (a gadfly candidate no one has really ever heard of) got was a protest None of The Above vote.

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Probably lots of Democrats are firm Bloomberg voters
and didn't want to cast a "dishonest" vote.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe, but probably not...
There was a time where I thought Thompson could perhaps pull this one out, but I know many a liberal New York Dem (many who voted for Mark Green in '01) who are perfectly content with another Bloomberg term. They think he's done a fine job, and aren't enthused about Thompson whatsoever.

Granted, I do think he'll perform far stronger than Ferrer, and it'll be a single-digits race, but unless Thompson can DESTROY Bloomberg in the debates (IIRC, polls showed a narrow majority of New Yorkers thought Messinger beat Giuliani in their debate, and we see what happened there) at least for the moment, I don't see him winning.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Bloomberg is going to get his 3rd term
For Thompson to win he would have to dominate Bloomberg and push his buttons in the debates, run the most spectacular ad campaign on a shoestring budget ever, and boost turnout among his base of black voters. The only thing that seems plausible to me is he will push Bloomberg's buttons, since they are easily pushed these days. That won't be enough. A good number of people I've spoken to on the race feel that Thompson is a decent and competent bureaucrat, but feel he would be too indebted to the unions who would have been basically responsible for his victory, as well as coming across as another Dinkins. Weiner was realistically the only person that could make Bloomberg sweat, and Wolfson pushed him out good and hard.

To me the most interesting race will be the runoff for Public Advocate and Comptroller. Whoever wins the PA runoff is likely going to immediately start gearing up for 2013 against Weiner who will almost certainly run.  

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)

[ Parent ]
I wanna say De Blasio has more enthusiasm going...
...but I suppose let us not forget Mark Green's turned the tables in a contentious run-off before (against Freddie Ferrer in the '01 Mayoral Primary). I do feel like there's a lingering sentiment that Green's days are over, but it doesn't hurt to have run a city-wide race before.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
More push-polling by Yassky
I just got a call from National Research. I was asked a series of questions about New York City politicians. Eventually, they got around to the Comptroller race. When I said I was very unlikely to change my mind and vote for Yassky, she asked me what he could tell me to change my mind, and I said: "Nothing. I'd have to hear something really bad about Liu, and it would have to be convincing." So she started in about whether he actually worked at a sweatshop when he was a kid or whether it wasn't a sweatshop, and I said I already knew about that stuff and it didn't change my mind. I said: "If you're gonna tell me a bunch of negative stuff about Liu and positive stuff about Yassky to try to convince me to vote for Yassky, I won't participate, because that would constitute a push poll." She apologized and ended the so-called "survey." This is the SECOND time a polling company apparently hired by Yassky (though they wouldn't disclose who hired them, for "privacy" reasons) has done this crap to me.

Yassky is a slimy, sleazy politician. He must be defeated.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

Dude, this sounds like a message testing poll,
not a push poll. You should learn the difference.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
However, it was an attempt to convince me to vote for one candidate, disguised as a "poll."

And the oddest thing, on reflection, is that this time (I don't believe the other time), it started by asking me whether I was [my name]. An anonymous poll, obviously, would never do that.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
You're making another assumption
Polls often work from voter registration lists.  
[ Parent ]
Which assumptions do you think I'm making that are unwarranted?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
That a pollster would not ask for you by name

[ Parent ]
And?
You said "another assumption." I appreciate your explanation of why a reputable pollster might ask me to confirm my name, but are you calling anything else I said into question?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Your first assumption
was that any poll testing a message was a push poll (incorrect). Your second assumption was that asking for you by name suggested something untoward (also incorrect).

Clear now?

[ Parent ]
I get that it is called something other than a push poll
But I consider it unethical and slimy, whatever the industry terminology for it is.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Well, you can take it however you like
but every single politician with any means at all message tests.  
[ Parent ]
Other message testing polls
I've gotten haven't named the candidates involved but have said things like "Would you be more likely to support [description of candidate] or [description of candidate]." I remember once or twice when I was living with my parents and my father felt that the two were actually the same candidate, and they wanted to know what image to project.

Do you seriously think it's legitimate to have an "opinion poll" which aggressively attacks one candidate and sells another?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
The dispositive question for me
is whether it's a legitimate message testing poll or not. In other words, can a politician draw useful conclusions from the collected data? If not, then it really is pretty much a push poll, and underhanded. But if so, then to me it's obviously legitimate.

Of course, you are free to not support candidates who poll you in ways you don't like, but that is unrelated to legitimacy.  

[ Parent ]
I get it
So, to you, what makes it legitimate is not whether it's an attempt to persuade the subject to vote for a particular candidate in the guise of a poll, but whether the politician who hires the pollster can get some benefit from the answers. Regardless, I'll continue to consider Yassky slimy and unethical. Ironically, I might well have voted for him if I hadn't gotten the first attempt to persuade in the guise of a poll.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
No, you do NOT GET IT
If the purpose of a phone call is actually to "persuade the subject" then it is not a legitimate poll at all. It IS a push poll.

But with all due respect, given the direction of our discussion here, I don't have much confidence that you could tell the difference.  

[ Parent ]
That's your issue
I described the way the calls went. If you choose not to believe what I said, well, bully to you. Have a great night.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
NYC Primary Predictions & Results Thread | 72 comments

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