Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/8-10, likely voters, 3/23-25 in parentheses):
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (45)
Rob Simmons (R): 46 (40)
Undecided: 12 (15)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 46 (51)
Sam Caligiuri (R): 37 (30)
Undecided: 17 (19)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 44 (NA)
Tom Foley (R): 40 (NA)
Undecided: 16 (NA)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 47 (NA)
Peter Schiff (R): 35 (NA)
Undecided: 18 (NA)
(MoE: ±4%)Rob Simmons (R): 38
Sam Caligiuri (R): 7
Thomas Foley (R): 6
Peter Schiff (R): 1
Undecided: 48
(MoE: ±5%)
Research 2000 takes a look at the Connecticut Senate race, and while of course it’s never good to be an incumbent who’s trailing a challenger, things are looking merely bad for Chris Dodd instead of dire. Note that the R2K trendlines have actually gone down for Dodd, but this still feels like a marked improvement because it’s been six months since R2K polled, during which time two Quinnipiac polls have seen a precipitous decline for Dodd (most recently, giving ex-Rep. Rob Simmons a 48-39 edge over Dodd). Maybe it’s an apples and oranges problem, or maybe we’ve seen Dodd bottom out and start back up as the economy improves and his woes associated with the Wall Street Bailout recede in the rear-view.
R2K also looks ahead to the 2012 Senate race, but their poll is conditioned on the assumption that Jodi Rell runs for the GOP (and it’s not even clear yet that she’s running for re-election as Governor)… and it’s also conditioned on Joe Lieberman not finding a way to win back the Democratic primary. Rell wins a Rell/Ned Lamont/Joe Lieberman match-up 46-26-26, and a Rell/Richard Blumenthal/Lieberman match-up 40-32-23. It also finds 68-21 support for the public option, and 87-6 rejection of birtherism.
Rasmussen (9/10, likely voters):
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39
Rob Simmons (R): 49
Some other: 5
Not sure: 6Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40
Tom Foley (R): 43
Some other: 7
Not sure: 10Chris Dodd (D-inc): 43
Sam Caligiuri (R): 40
Some other: 7
Not sure: 10Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42
Peter Schiff (R): 40
Some other: 7
Not sure: 10
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen (from numbers released last Friday) paints a grimmer picture for Dodd in their first look at this race, showing him down 9 against Simmons and also down 3 against Tom Foley, the former Ambassador to Ireland. Dodd beats the more conservative options, state Sen. Caligiuri and Paulist economist Peter Schiff.
Rasmussen doesn’t poll the Republican primary, although R2K finds Rob Simmons in commanding position there. The already-cluttered field sounds like it’s going to get even bigger (and weirder) with the addition of World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon to the mix, with the threat of her bringing $30 million of her own money with her. This creates the specter of a riotous primary where the contestants are not just metaphorically but literally hitting each other over the heads with folding chairs — but Connecticut uses a party endorsement process where the real vote that counts is the May convention vote among 1,600 town committee members. The winner goes onto the primary ballot with the party’s endorsement, although candidates who receive at least 15% of the vote at the convention may still petition to appear on the ballot in the August primary — but you’ve gotta wonder whether the Schiffs and McMahons of the field, with no political party connections whatsoever, will even make it over that threshold. (UPDATE: McMahon was a heavy contributor to Jodi Rell and was appointed in early 2009 to the Connecticut State Board of Education, so she’s not totally out of the political loop.)
RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen
So far his strategy has been to remind Connecticocians (or whatever) what a powerful senator he has been. Soon it will be “had been”.
That means some substantial portion of the electorate supports the public option but still will vote for Simmons.
This poll is meaningless because we all know Linda McMahon is going to open up a WWE sized can of whoopass on everyone!
At first, I thought that Dodd had a major problem regarding his own ethics related to the refinancing of his own personal mortgages at a below-the-market rate. However, after running the ole calculator, I don’t think he really saved that much money on the deal on an annual basis. Plus, it does look like he was a candidate for the lower rate based on Countrywide’s own special program. Dodd probably should have disclosed this special rate on his personal financial disclosure statements, but it really was more of a judgment call. It’s not like some governor candidate from NJ who failed to report a loan he gave to his personal female employee/friend. With the NJ guy, there was no judgment involved. He should have reported the loan.
Dodd’s success in 2010 will be tied with the US economy. All signs show that the recession is starting to wane, so Dodd polling numbers are probably at their bottom. I don’t see Simmons beating Dodd in 2010. It will be close, but at the time of voting you will see a major push for Dodd.
This Is actully good news for him.Down by 4 Instead of 10.
We should also note that despite polls In 2008 Ted Stevens
barely lost.In fact he almost won.Dodd could pull this out.
Especilly If he has Obama In CT for him and they can point
out Simmons would vote against the entire Obama agenda In
the senate.