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Sensible Democratic Gerrymander of Illinois

by: jsramek

Tue Sep 15, 2009 at 3:28 PM EDT


The primary goals of any partisan redistricting should be to, first, protect endangered incumbents; and, secondly, maximize your seats without spreading your votes too thin to risk losing seats in a wave election.  Of the Republican gerrymanders after 2000, the Michigan map (where the GOP legislature aimed for a 9-6 split) held up much better than Pennsylvania.

My map aims for a 13-5 split in normal years, and possibly a 14-4 split.  It shores up Bean, Foster, and Halverson.  It throws Mark Kirk and Jan Schakowsky together in the new CD-1, which Schakowsky would easily prevail; and Peter Roskam and Judy Biggert together in the new CD-11, which is designed to elect a Republican.  It creates a new district centered in northern Chicago and the northwest Cook suburbs that are heavily trending Democratic.  Lastly, Downstate it puts Aaron Schock's congressional career in jeopardy by combining Peoria with Decatur, Champlain, and Bloomington while trading Republican farm territory with Shimkus and Johnson.

Oh, and one more thing, I renumbered all the districts in logical order - it doesn't make much sense to me that Jerry Costello's current district is the #12 while #1-11 and the 13th are all in Chicago or Suburban Chicago.  

jsramek :: Sensible Democratic Gerrymander of Illinois
CD-1 (Schakowsky vs. Kirk) - Dem favored (57% white, 13% black, 7% asian, 19% hispanic)

Schakowksy's currently configured #9, along with Quigley's #5 are both too packed with Democrats.  Instead of having a PVI of D+20 and D+19 respectively, it is possible I believe to create four Chicago-North districts with only slightly lesser Dem PVIs.  This district extends along Lake Chicago from the lakefront wards of Chicago, north through Evanston, and New Trier Township, and then Lake County up to the Wisconsin border including Waukegan and Lake Zion.  

CD-2 (Bean) (69% white, 3% black, 12% asian, 13% hispanic)

By moving Schakowsky's district north, I was able to draw Bean much closer into Chicago and into Chicago-trending suburbs.  Includes about 100k of Chicago itself, plus all of Niles, Northfield, and Palatine townships in Cook, plus more rural parts of Lake County.  Should be significantly more Democratic now.

CD-3 (Vacant) (69% white, 1% black, 11% asian, 16% hispanic

The third and fourth districts break up Quigley's district into two parts and marry those parts with suburban townships in Cook and northern DuPage which are trending Democratic.  This district includes Elk Grove, Wheeling, and Maine townships, plus a fair amount of northern Chicago.  It should elect a Democrat.

CD-4 (Quigley) (65% white, 4% black, 9% asian, 19% hispanic)

Combines Democratic leaning northern DuPage townships (Bloomington and Addison, which both voted for John Kerry) and a small part of Milton with the rest of Quigley's current district left over from drawing the third.

CD-5 (Davis) (52% black)

I decide to reorient how the Hispanic-majority district is hooked up to the Chicago lakefront instead of the Cook County border in order to dilute some suburban Republican votes.  Parts of Milton and all of York township in DuPage is added to the current district.

CD-6 (Gutierrez) (71% hispanic)

Little changes except how the two parts of the district are hooked up.  They now make a backwards C.  Still hideously gerrymandered.  By the time the next census comes around, it should become possible to create two separate Hispanic-majority districts in Chicago.

CD-7 (Lipinski) (63% white, 5% black, 1% asian, 28% hispanic)

Firmly anchored in Cook County and adds several left-over Hispanic precincts in the current #4 to bolster the Democratic nature of the district.  Possibly, Lipinski can be primaried if he still votes the way he does?

CD-8 (Rush) (52% black)

Extends out to Will County now to pick up Republican precincts in Lockport and Homer townships, same thing in Cook County (all of Lemont and Orland, most of Palos, and parts of Bremen and Worth, plus the south side of Chicago = a very good way to get rid of Republican precincts.

CD-9 (Jackson, Jr.) (52% black)

Adds parts of Will County (New Lenox, Manhattan, Frankfort and Green Garden townships) to currently existing district.  Exchanges parts of Monee Township with Halvorson to increase her district's Democratic performance.

CD-10 (Halvorson) (58% white, 12% black, 3% asian, 23% hispanic)

Includes left-over parts of Will County not in CD-8 or 9 (which are significantly more Democratic) with Democratic-leaning Aurora and a tiny part of Kendall County to connect the two.  Should be safely Democratic now.

CD-11 (Roskam vs. Biggert) (71% white, 4% black, 9% asian, 13% hispanic)

Although it probably is possible to create several thin strands and eliminate every one of the remaining Chicago-area Republicans, it is safer I believe to leave one Republican-leaning district left.  The CD-11 is designed to be such a district.  It includes the left-over parts of DuPage not in the 4th or the 5th (Downers Grove, Lisle, Naperville, Winfield, Wayne, and parts of Milton (Wheaton) to include Roskam's home), St. Charles and Dundee in Kane County, and Hanover and Barrington townships in Cook.

CD-12 (Foster) (74% white, 6% black, 2% asian, 14% hispanic)

All of LaSalle and DeKalb counties, most of Kane and Kendall, plus Rockford.  Should be safer for a Democrat now.

CD-13 (Manzullo)

One of three districts that pack Republican voters to ensure the election or reelection of Democrats in neighboring districts.  Rockford has been removed from the current district in exchange for all of McHenry and the far western rural townships of Lake.  District also now drops down to include Republican Lee and most of Bureau counties.

CD-14 (Hare)

Cleaned up the lines significantly by removing snake that went all the way to to Decatur.  District now includes all of Springfield and a few small rural counties to its north, along with some rural townships near Peoria.  Should still be safe for Hare or any generic Democrat with the dominance of Springfield and Rock Island.

CD-15 (Schock) (80% white, 10% black, 3% asian, 2% hispanic)

By straightening out the lines of Hare's district, and with some clever trading of territory with Johnson, it opens the possibility to end Schock's career before the Republicans groom him to take a leadership role.  Combines Peoria with Bloomington-Normal, Urbana-Champlain, and Decatur.  Furthermore, it does it in a way that doesn't lead to serpentine appendages going everywhere.

CD-16 (Johnson)

The consequence of going after Schock means that Johnson gets quite possibly the most Republican district in Illinois.  Swaps Democratic-leaning Champlain and Urbana for Republican farm counties.

CD-17 (Shimkus)

The third and final district that packs Republicans.  It would have been nice to go after Shimkus too, and indeed, it would probably not be too difficult to draw Shimkus into a Madison-Springfield, Macoupin centered district that would be very tough for him to win re-election in.  But, many southern Illinois counties outside of Carbondale, Cairo, and Metro-East are trending very Republican and need to be placed somewhere.

CD-18 (Costello)

Adds Democratic-leaning Jersey, Calhoun, Macoupin, and most of Montgomery counties, Edwardsville of Madison country, to the currently Democratic areas of the district; swaps Republican-leaning Williamson, Franklin, and most of Union counties over to Shimkus's district.

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map
I have a map using Dave's redistricting app, but don't know how to upload it from my Mac.

Take Screen shots
Even for the PC there's no easy export tool.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Ever heard of Flickr?


[ Parent ]
Your map has some flaws
1. Mark Kirk's replacement will likely be a Democrat.  Putting that Democrat and Schakowsky in the same district
would suck.

2. Tim Johnson lives in Urbana.  

3. Dan Lipinski, IMO, should be given a swing to GOP-leaning district.  He is in a Democratic district where he is safe from a primary because there is a large number of conservative, but hard-core Democrats.  I'd add significant GOP territory and stick him in the same district as Biggert/Roskam.


good points
Thanks for your feedback.  Here are a few points:

Regarding your first point, it should be easy enough to rejiggle the district lines around a little bit in northern Cook county so that they're not in the same districts but that both districts would have voted for Obama by about 65% or so.  I was testing a concept which is that it is very doable to have a district better than D+6 without really endangering Schakowsky any.  The same goes for Quigley.

I am leery, though, of necessarily assuming that it will be a Democrat - likely, less, but if the economy doesn't turn around by then, we could be for a national bloodbath.  If that happens, and a Republican gets elected in Mark Kirk's old district, then it might be sensible to combine Schakowsky and him/her in a district that would be impossible for a Republican to win.  It shouldn't even necessarily need Chicago to do this BTW.  Evanston voted 87% for Obama and Niles Township (which includes Skokie) voted 67%.  The last "bi-partisan" (but really GOP) gerrymander in 2001 needlessly packed Democratic voters in the 5th and the 9th to help out Kirk and Phil Crane.  Well, we see how well that plan worked out in the latter with Melissa Bean....

Onto your second point.  The state board of elections website has useful filing information which gives you the exact address where Congressmen live.  If you then mapquest Johnson, he lives on the very outskirts of Urbana.  It is, thus, very easy to draw all of Champlain and the bulk of Urbana into Schock's district.

Regarding your third point, I disagree.  I fear that given Lipinski's pro-life stance, he wouldn't wear well in the suburbs where Democrats (if they are to stand a chance of getting votes) probably should be pro-choice.  Therefore, I would imagine that Judy Biggert would stand a good chance of doing well.  As I said, I do not exactly trust the johnny-come-lateliness of DuPage into the Democratic column enough to risk pairing a DuPage Republican with a Chicago ethnic Democrat.  I think it is safer to let Roskam and Biggert duke it out in an ideologically-driven primary and then bide our time until DuPage gets bluer (no township even in 2004 voted for Bush with more than 55% and Obama carried all 9 townships last November but in some cases only narrowly).  DuPage seems to be slowly moving in our direction that we may end up getting a two-fer over the 10-year cycle.


[ Parent ]
Lipinski
Lipinski ought to be drawn into a Hispanic majority district.

Gray - Black
Orange - Hispanic
Green - White

The 4th should be able to be split in two at this point into two majority Hispanic districts (one more Mexican-American, one more Puerto-Rican-American, I believe). Lipinski's district has a large Hispanic population, and the Southern Hispanic district can take a lot of Hispanics from Lipinski, as well as some of his White voters. The 1st, 2nd, 11th, and 13th can all share the remaining bits of his district. Be sure to give a particularly big chunk of his district to Biggert in the 13th. Then he can be made to run in a majority Hispanic district where he will lose a primary, or he can opt to run in the 13th - if he wins there, fine, that gets rid of Biggert. If not, no big loss.

If a new Hispanic district is to be created, which it likely will be, one of the Cook County Reps will have to be sacrificed or at least given a less Cook based district - I can think of no better candidate for that job than Lipinski.


[ Parent ]
Which half does Gutierriez live in?
If he lives in the south - bye bye Lipinski.

[ Parent ]
North half
He recently moved from Logan Square to Bucktown, both on the Northwest Side of the city and the northern half of the 4th.

Interestingly, he's Puerto Rican, leaving good space for a Mexican-American representative from the Lower West Side for a  new Hispanic-majority district?


[ Parent ]
Excellent Idea
I like this a lot.

[ Parent ]
I am more and more tempted to do this
Then, I would push Lipinski out into the suburbs and not care much whether he won or not as we would have a more reliable Democrat anyway.  Except, haven't the courts mandated that the VRA Hispanic district be over 70-75% because many Hispanics aren't yet citizens?

[ Parent ]
Voting age population is a tradition criterion
But the experience in California and Texas suggests that it isn't a great one. It will take years to get the citizenship and registration levels up. (The Administration can do a lot to help with this).

[ Parent ]
Probably explains the shakiness of TX-23


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I can't follow this w/o a map.
Sorry.


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