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MA-Sen: Lynch Publicly Opts Out

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 15, 2009 at 12:29 PM EDT


Now this is a surprise:

After lagging support from unions - one of his vital voter bases - U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) said today he wouldn't run for the late U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's seat....

"The challenge of putting together the resources and organization necessary to wage a competitive statewide campaign in less than 90 days is insurmountable," said Lynch in a statement.

Here's the take-home lesson that a lot of Democrats, not just Lynch, need to take to heart (starting with a certain majority leader whose name rhymes with Barry Bead who will need on-the-ground labor support to make it over the hump in 2010). If labor support is a key component to your coalition, don't dither around on the public option.

So, that leaves AG Martha Coakley and Rep. Michael Capuano as the only elected officials in the race. What had once looked like it would be a 5-way frenzy of House members where the more moderate Lynch had a shot at sneaking through, instead has turned into a fairly easy shot for Coakley, the only statewide official in the running. Capuano's best bet is to try to consolidate Boston and Cambridge-area votes and outflank Coakley on the left (although Coakley is outwardly progressive, unlike Capuano she doesn't have a voting record to point to, so we have no idea how deep her progressive bona fides are). The only wild cards left are the entry of random rich guys who can fund their own way: City Year founder Alan Khazei confirmed that he's getting into the race, and Boston Celtic co-owner Stephen Pagliuca is also sounding like a candidate.

On the GOP side, state Sen. Scott Brown seems to be the Republicans' best bet... although he's attracting the kind of attention you don't necessarily want when you're running for Senate. Although, c'mon, we've all posed nude to pay our way through law school, haven't we? Uh... we haven't?

Crisitunity :: MA-Sen: Lynch Publicly Opts Out
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Meh
he posed for Cosmo as one of those, Im a single attractive guy and you know you want to read my bio and have this, thing.  If it was Playgirl, then I'd be doing some phone banking for him  ;)

Woah!
Check out that happy trail!

Ok, where do I send this guy (Scott Brown) some money...
Happy, indeed !

[ Parent ]
I never liked that Barry Bead guy


Yeah, and isn't Barry Bead's son Bory running for office, too?


[ Parent ]
Not a fan of Bory...
It's too bad that, er, Rarbara Ruckley had to drop out of the gubernatorial race.

[ Parent ]
Maybe Boscar Boodman could run as a Democrat against Bory


[ Parent ]
What?
You mean the David here isn't the famous male strip model DavidNYC? I always thought that's what paid for SSP.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Well,
With the exit of Lynch, I guess I'll support Capauno.

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)

I don't understand this
We have a race like MN-Gov where about 72 people want to run, and even races like CT-Sen where party leaders try and fail to clear the field for preferred candidates.  So what does Coakley have on these guys that is making them all head for the exits?

I understand the difficulty of raising one's statewide profile in a three-month campaign, but Coakley has no federal money, while these guys are all sitting on millions of federal dollars that they will never be able to use again if Coakley wins this primary.  Seriously, a Senate seat will not open up again in their lifetimes, or at least until they're too old to run.  Why not blow the dough on a race like this?  If they win, great; if not, they raise their statewide profile and set themselves up for a Governor's race or some such.

They are all dooming themselves to being lifetime Congressmen, it seems.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


Understandable in a few cases
I can understand Markey not getting in, as he's pretty high up in seniority. Olver's too old; Barney Frank has a prominent committee chairmanship; McGovern's in line for the Rules Committee chair; Tsongas has only been an MC for 2 years; and Lynch could not get the needed support (plus I'm glad he dropped out).

Don't know why Tierney, Delahunt, and Neal didn't try though, as any one of them would have been a very viable candidate.


[ Parent ]
Rep. Neal
Western Mass with its low population is a tough base to operate from, even if you include the Blackstone Valley, which is in MA-02 along with Springfield, where Neal was once mayor. Neal's originally from Worcester, which would help him a little there among the old-timers. But being a complete unknown in Greater Boston is a huge handicap in a statewide race, especially one with this short a timetable.  

Like Lynch, he's pro-life, which alone would make him unacceptable to many voters, but unlike Lynch he's got a pretty good liberal record on just about everything else. He could get the "Ray Flynn" type of voters (i.e. Catholic cultural conservatives) and would have a shot at key union endorsements that Lynch may not have gotten. Of course his ceiling would be low too and would be counting on the same crowded field Lynch would.

However, Neal's pretty high up on either Ways/Means or Appropriations (forget which) and while he's younger than John Olver he's no spring chicken either so starting over in the Senate may not be attractive to him.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Neal's pro-life?
Really?  Where did you see that?  I'm stunned that goes over well AT ALL in the Pioneer Valley (see these Colleges: Amherst, UMASS-Amherst, Smith, Mt. Holyoke, Hampshire...and more independent book stores than one might be able to visit in one lifetime).  And West Mass is less heavily working-class Catholic too, right?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Everyone's kind of right and kind of wrong...
I certainly wouldn't classify Neal as pro-life (at least not like Lynch). I'm having trouble finding all the data but NARAL gave Neal a 100% rating in 2006 (no rankings in 08) and The National Right to Life gave Neal a 0% this year.

However Western Mass (particularly Springfield, but also Chicopee, Holyoke and other towns) is definitely still blue-collar Catholic. While it was once almost exclusively Irish Catholic (Neal is by far Ireland's biggest supporter in Congress and has worked with Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams on multiple occasions) the region has seen a large influx of poor Hispanic Catholics in the last couple of decades.

Ray Flynn was a mayor of Boston who Clinton named his Ambassador to the Holy See. However I think that's a really bogus comparison, seeing as how Neal has a progressive punch rating over 90% and Flynn endorsed George Bush for President...twice.  


[ Parent ]
Amherst is in the 1st
so most of the 5 College students and faculty are in the 1st. In fact, Olver used to be a professor at UMass. Northampton, on the other hand is in the 2nd, so there's still Smith and a lot of ultra-liberal townies. Springfield still dominates the 2nd, more so than Northampton, and it's on the blue-collar culturally-conservative Catholic side of things... or at least its suburbs are, as the city itself may have a Hispanic majority now.

[ Parent ]
Western Mass
1. There are really three parts to the Pioneer Valley - going upstream from CT to VT - the Hampden County portion (Springfield, Holyoke, Chicopee, Westfield), the Hampshire County portion (Amherst, Northampton, Hadley), and the Franklin County portion (all small towns, Greenfield being the biggest.)

The cities in the lower part are traditionally blue-collar and Irish Catholic (or Polish Catholic in the case of Chicopee) and conservative by New England standards. The cities there now all have heavy Hispanic populations. The more suburban communities in this area are currently among the most GOP-friendly towns in the state. Most of this area is in MA-02.

The middle part is the "Five Colleges" area you're thinking of. Most of this area, including Olver's hometown of Amherst, is in MA-01...though NoHo is in MA-02.

The upper part (all in MA-01) is basically an extension of Southern Vermont. Once a bastion of flinty Yankee Republicanism, those little towns are now generally liberal Democratic strongholds, though usually overlooked since they have so few people.  

2. Neal may have well changed his tune on abortion rights since I last checked. He wouldn't be the first (Richard Gephardt started out as anti-abortion, and George Bush the Elder was famously pro-choice) to have done so. His district would still be pretty friendly to a pro-life Congressman, though it's hard to imagine a Republican winning even with all those reddish towns around Springfield.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Ray Flynn?
Not being from the Bay State, I don't get that reference.

[ Parent ]
This may help a bit
Very brief Wikipedia article on Raymond Flynn

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Delahunt would have been discouraged
by the leadership.  It would not be automatic to hold that seat, Obama won it by only 55-44, and that seat is even less Democratic at the local level.

[ Parent ]
Interesting
Why is that?

[ Parent ]
MA-10
MA-10 is probably the least "blue" district in the state.

The South Shore has a fair number of Republican leaning towns. The fortunate thing is that nearly 1 out of 7 residents of MA-10 live in its northernmost town/city, Quincy, which is heavily Democratic, and Delahunt's hometown.    

The Cape/Islands permanent population is heavy on retirees who have traditionally voted Democratic, but like most seniors most places were much less enthusiastic about Obama than most other demographics, and we're not sure what they're going to do in the future. As it stands now, GOP candidates regularly carry several Cape Cod towns, which Democrats usually winning there overall thanks the two big towns of Falmouth and Barnstable. (The Vineyard and P'town of course are as cartoonishly liberal-leaning as you think they'd be, but neither has many year-round residents.)  

Hopefully when this map gets redrawn they'll find a way to draw another nearby strong Democratic city (or large town or two) in there. Possible candidates include Brockton (MA-9 is still safe without it) and New Bedford (Barney Frank doesn't need it.)
 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
There is one bit of leverage party leaders have...
...and this is how they shutdown Meehan when he began toying with running for Governor.  Redistricting.  I haven't lived in the bay state for over 10 years now (has it been that long?) so I'm not sure whether the legislature is ruled by the same conservative and more than slightly corrupt dictators they traditionally have.

Don't think there is any of that going on now.  Just you have a lot of pretty senior democrats in the house who don't necessarily have much incentive to run a tough race for the Senate when they have a guaranteed for life position in the house with more power.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]

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