TX

Do we have a shot of picking up Ogden's state sen. seat?

Also I'd probably support the Travis County (former) DA for TX gov because he seems like the most likely to win.  All the other candidates suck!

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by: admnok @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 12:21:14 PM UTC

Ogden's Senate Seat

Nope. It's 1 50/50 County (Williamson) then College Station, and a lot of rural red areas along I-45. District probably gave McCain around 70% and I think you will find one Democratic State Rep within the entire district, Freshman Diana Maldonado of Round Rock.

Earle stands a greater chance of getting pasted than Schieffer. All the candidates suck. Earle is going to be pasted as an Austin liberal extremist, Schieffer worked for Bush, Gilbert has no recognition, Kinky is not a democrat, Alvarado is a gadfly, Shamoi is a gadfly. None of them are going to win, none of them deserve to win.

That said, I'm debating between Gilbert and Schieffer. I like Gilbert more personally, I just want to know who can give Perry the better run for his money. again, it won't be Earle.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 14:29:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And like clockwork

State Rep. Dan Gattis (R) has jumped in the state senate race. His district gave McCain 64%. Gattis is also the "other" Rep from Round Rock (the "other" being aforementioned Freshman Democrat Diana Maldonado). State House seat MIGHT be competitive, but I doubt it will end up that way. We'll see.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:02:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And I am wrong on both numbers

State Senate District 5: McCain 60.4%, Obama 38.1%
Map - http://www.senate.state.tx.us/...

State House District 20 - McCain 61.0%, Obama 37.1%
Map - http://www.house.state.tx.us/m...

Still, I don't like the odds of either.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:05:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One last comment

If all the stuff along I-45 were dropped in exchange for Bell (Temple) and McLennon County (Waco), we'd have a shot. That'd move the district into something where McCain won with something around 57-58%

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:09:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More likely

Dems are not going to control that process so if anything it will get more republican.  One good thing is that the big cities continue to grow so at some point dems will get some more seats just from demographics.

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by: admnok @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:13:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The D/FW districts

Sooner or later, two of those current districts are going to bleed their Republicans right out. Question is how safe the Republicans decide to make Wendy Davis (or how safe they can since she is Fort Worth based) to increase the safety of their incumbents. Same goes for Joan Huffman in Houston (the district Chris Bell failed to win int he runoff).

I guess it's a good thing knowing there is not an increase in the number of State Senate seats so they can just be "apportioned" away.

Wake me in 2020, Dems will control something in Texas by then.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:37:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its always possible

That the new D/FW-area district is Latino-Majority and thus a whole lot of Dems from Sessions and Merchant's districts, for example, get put into this. Of course there is also the demographic issue, too as many younger whites are pretty moderate.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:04:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That would have too much population

Williamson and Bell are growing too fast. It would also be more favorable to Dems to combine Williamson with a path through the Eastern part of Travis (Austin) not in Kirk Watson's district down to Hays County (San Marcos). Fill in any extra population needed with Bastrop/Caldwell.

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by: MattTX2 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 17:02:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's my proposed new Chet Edwards district

Make him and safe and getting safer (This includes Bell and parts of McClennon).

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 17:26:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am not sure that would actually make him much safer

Williamson County (much less Travis or Hays) are in the Austin media market rather than the Waco media market, where he is much better known.

I think the ideal district for him would be Bell/McLennan/Brazos, and whatever combination of Milam/Robertson/Falls/Burleson/Limestone in between gets the population right. Not that he is likely to get an ideal district...

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by: MattTX2 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 19:34:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where did you get the state legislature-Pres. results?

Itd be cool to see them for all the TX State Legislature districts. Hell, for every state, really, LOL. But I wont get greedy ;).

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:02:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kinky

Is also pretty conservative on immigration. If Latinos sit at home (or vote GOP because of social issues) then I cant see him winning.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 02:59:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IL-14

Sorry to bogart, but isn't Oberweis Minnesota?  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 12:27:36 PM UTC

Nope

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...

You must be thinking of Jim Oberstar, who represents Duluth and the Iron Range.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 12:40:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right, right.

That's what it was. My bad.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:32:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP

Why in the world is Georgia, then Arizona, winning this?  I'd think Ohio, seeing as it is usually a good thermometer for the mood of the nation, isn't in first.  Also we haven't seen a poll of Missouri in a while either.  I can even understand Arizona... but Georgia?  Really?

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by: admnok @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 13:21:50 PM UTC

Arizona, Georgia, Missouri

for both Senate and Governor (applicable to AZ and GA only). Not necessarily in that order.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 14:34:31 PM UTC

GA GOV would be interesting to see

That's why I voted for GA.

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by: fitchfan28 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:24:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

It looks like a very wide open race for the nomination between both parties. As for the Senate, I'd like them to poll Isakson and Paul Broun (who's been making noise about a primary challenge) to see how that goes.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:38:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Has Broun said anything about running recently?

I remember at the begining of the year there was talk but I've heard nothing in months.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 16:29:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

False Bravado

I think it might have just turned out to be all talk from Broun. Too bad, it would have been interesting. Besides, Broun is too busy cosying up to the tea-bagging crowd these days, just like Joe 'You Lie' Wilson and a number of his Republican colleagues.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 18:32:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Funny

Didnt Broun originally win, in that special election, because he won over many moderate voters in Augusta? Due to his "libertarian" streak...which, as it now seems...is actually just limited to fiscal issues.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:08:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In other words...

I bet those voters are pretty pissed they supported him.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:09:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NV-Gov

Democrats in Nevada hold three prominent statewide offices.  They are Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Treasurer.  With Reid being a weak candidate, would any of the statewide Democratic officeholders be interested in running for governor?  I assume that they won't be because they are all in their first term in their positions and none has been elected to anything before being elected to their current offices.

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by: mdouglas @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:30:13 PM UTC

Two possibilities

One is SoS Ross Miller, whose father, Bob, was governor from 1989-1999.

Another is AG Catherine Cortez Masto. Her background as a federal prosecutor would play very well, I think.

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by: corran horn @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:36:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MA-Sen: Tierney out

According to CQ Politics, John Tierney is out of the running for the Senate seat.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

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by: corran horn @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:37:06 PM UTC

So with no strong GOPer

It looks as if the race is now between Coakley, Lynch, and Capuano.

From a progressive perspective, here is the order in which we want them:

1. Capuano
2. Coakley
3. Lynch

We know Capuano is a true-blue progressive, and we know Lynch is a true-blue moderate.  Coakley is a bit more up in the air.  The most important thing to do is keep Lynch from getting anywhere near the Senate.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 16:35:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

That ranking seems right to me.

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by: armand @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 18:24:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Survey USA

needs to poll this primary

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by: jmartin4s @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 18:53:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY GOV

Lazio running according to politicalwire.com

I think this is bad news right?  We'd prefer a no name state senator?  Either way I don't think it matters who runs as the R.  What really matters is who is on the D side.

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by: admnok @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:50:44 PM UTC

Lazio is now a "retread"

I'd worry more about Pataki or Giuliani

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by: tietack @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 16:14:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lazio's a joke

For the GOP, it's either Rudy or bust.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 18:04:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pataki should be a retread, too

Due to his very low approval numbers in his last few months (or year) in office. But voters seem to have forgotten all that based on his NY-Sen. poll numbers.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:10:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

re: Ogden

He's not interested in running for Congress against Chet, though I'm sure Pete Sessions the NRCC chair will give him a call. He wants to be Lt. Governor if he runs for anything.

His Senate seat was Democratic in the 90s, former Congressman Jim Turner held it, but the Round Rock to Brazos Valley area has gone hard right since then. Gattis has the family name and connections to win, unless someone from Aggieland is well funded and steps up.

The GOP drew themselves to thin in DFW. There will have to be a hispanic state senate seat in Dallas, and likely a congressional district drawn similar to the one Martin Frost represented.

If Earle gets in that hurts Hank Gilbert, they share much of the same group. It's up in the air.

 

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by: phillytx @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 15:54:31 PM UTC

Question on the state senate seat

Right now it is Royce West (African American, Dallas) and Wendy Davis (White, Fort Worth) as the two Democrats; and Chris Harris and John Carona as the two Republicans holding approximately 50/50 districts in Dallas (neither are up in 2010). How do the Rs redistrict so as to protect both of their incumbents and send the Democrats back to 2006 representation, meaning only Royce West? What is the best option available to the Republicans?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 16:38:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope they do go after Wendy Davis

If they do, Dems will definitely end up holding her seat and another as well, even if she loses in the short term.

If they don't go after her, Chris Harris is easy to protect in exchange for helping her - just switch Grand Prairie/Cedar Hill area in the southern part of his district to Davis in exchange for some of North Tarrant, and give him some more Republican parts of Arlington in exchange for his more Dem Arlington Precincts.

Carona is screwed unless they violate/ignore the law and move part of his district out of Dallas County. (Supposedly only one district in a county can cross county lines, but this has been ignored in the past).

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by: MattTX2 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 16:51:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So lilkely result

Safe Davis, Safe Harris, try and shift Carona East to the more republican areas (same for Pete Sessions at a Federal level).

Possibly expand Royce West's land area since growth is more suburban to allow the stretch of Carona Eastwardly (maybe).

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 17:30:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

New D/FW Congressional district

I'm actually really interested in this since I live right smack in the middle of all the action. I did a quick and dirty preview of such a possible seat (called # 33 from the previous diary about 2010 Texas Redistricting). I look at the Texas House & Senate websites and it seems the real 50/50 State Senate districts are Wendy Davis, Chris Harris and John Carona (Royce West's district is 80% Obama).

If you aggregate the house districts that could possibly touch on this future district, you would look at House districts #: 91-96, 103-106, 109 and 111. I think it will be a real 50-50 district with its eastern portion taking more Democratic Dallas & Irving with North Central Arlington, Bedford and Richland Hills, being the more Republican ones.

If it is drawn as a 50-50 district, Kirk England may fit it more (his is 50/50 Obama-McCain) but if, as I think it should be, it is a D/FW deserves a Hispanic seat, it should lean more towards Dallas than Tarrant county. There are however, a decent number of majority or plurality Congressional districts that DON'T have a Hispanic Rep (e.g. all the CA districts held by the black reps sans Barbara Lee are plurality Hispanic seats, as is Gene Green's Houston District), so there is a chance this new seat may not even have a Hispanic rep in the end.

With regard to Wendy Davis and/or Chris Turner, I think if Joe Barton is resdistricted to Tarrant and Ennis counties, there is a chance he could be knocked off by either of them. SE Tarrant County is 60%+ of the district and that number will go higher if it is more compacted and there are a lot of Dems who split Obama-Barton (believe it or not) just because he was running against a nobody. My $0.02 is that SE Tarrant County and Arlington have no business being represented by Barton or any GOP-er.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

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by: Shinigami @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 17:31:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Regarding Texas Legislative Representation

After 2010 there will be 36 US Reps, and 31 State Senators. Wouldn't a state senator be considered a more powerful position than a US Rep, especially regarding someone who wants to move towards a state wide bid?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 18:01:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Neither US Rep nor State Senator

Really provide much of a platform at all for statewide office. The vast majority of people have never heard of anyone outside of their own media market (at best), and Texas has way too many big media markets. The two best platforms for launching a successful bid for statewide office are previous statewide office, and huge quantities of cold hard cash.

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by: MattTX2 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 19:52:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heh

Most Texans probably havent even heard of their own congressmen. And if they do its still a straight-ticket voting state, when you get to the general.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:18:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I highly doubt the GOP would ever make a 50/50 DFW district

Assuming they are in control of the redistricting process, they will either try somehow to avoid conceding a district, or they will try and pack it as full of Democratic votes as they possibly can. They know that anything close to 50/50 would just trend away from them over the course of the decade anyway.

For that reason, I also highly doubt as well that they will want to make a Democratic DFW district any more Hispanic than they have to (a heavily Hispanic majority district with enough votes to actually elect a Hispanic Rep would be safe Dem but cast few votes).

They would rather make Eddie Bernice Johnson's district as heavily African American as possible in order to waste/dilute as many black votes as possible, and make any other district they might concede as full of black voters as they can make it as well. Only after that is done would they want to add Hispanics into the mix.

That is the key to the GOP race war and is how they can render the most minority votes ineffective and give the most control to Anglo GOP voters - disenfranchise blacks by packing them as densely as possible, and disenfranchise Hispanics by spreading them as thinly as possible in predominantly white districts.

The only reason Tom DeLay ever wanted to make Martin Frost's district more Hispanic was his personal vendetta against Frost, and because there was doubt about the legality of totally dismantling his district.

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by: MattTX2 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 19:50:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wait

He didnt though, make Frost's district more HIspanic.  If so, then Frost would still be a Congressman or there would be a Hispanic in office from D/FW, right?

They did what you described, dismantled and spread out the Hispanic vote as thin as possible.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 20:24:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're right

Ultimately he didn't end up doing that, but he was pushing for it in 2000 during the initial redistricting as the best (only) way available to get rid of Frost. He also thought about in in 2003, but ultimately determined that he had the power to ram through a flat out dismantlement of Frost's district, both through the Texas legislature and through Bush's DOJ. That's where we are today. But in 2010/2012, the same fundamental considerations will be at play.

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by: MattTX2 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 20:59:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Alot of blue collar whites in Gene Green's district

Working in the refineries. A whole lot of them, I would assume, are still registered Dems. Though they would be conservative Dems, Id assume. Even on economic issues they wouldnt be liberal.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:16:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Still...

Green is not a Blue Dog.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:17:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NJ-Gov

Chris Christie is advertising on Facebook.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 16:31:56 PM UTC

Chris Daggett is polling at 15%

in the NJ gov poll that PPP is releasing tommorrow.

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by: jmartin4s @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 18:26:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Holy shit

That's about how much Berkley got in the MN-Sen race in 08.  Anyone able to cite other third party challenges for state-wide office that have generated that much attention in states where third parties dont exist?  (That nixes MN and VT from my inquiry, the Independence Party and the Progressives have been around and generating votes regularly.)

Have any of these examples ever done well out of their own awesomeness or do they always gain these modest mid-teen vote margins due to dissatisfaction for the other candidates mainly?

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 20:21:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The voters

hate both candidates so they pull the lever for the independent candidate. It happened in Wisconsin in 2002 and last year in the Franken-Coleman senate race.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 22:26:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK Gubernatorial 02

Is another example.  The third party candidate Richardson ran ads criticizing the GOP nominee Steve Largent for being away on vacation during the 9/11 attacks despite Largent claiming otherwise on local television.  Largent was the prohibitive favorite, and the attacks pretty much allowed Brad Henry to win it.

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by: DFLer @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 23:19:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX Governor 2006

   
  There were four candidates: Governor Goodhair, who won with 39%, Chris Bell, the Democrat, in the high twenties, and then Kinky Friedman in the low teens and "Grandma" Carole Some-Hyphenated-Names at around 10% if my memory serves me. Not normally a big third party state but neither Goodhair nor Bell were very popular and Kinky was a novelty. "Grandma" was a former Republican who was screwed over by the old boys network.

  An actual Texan could fill in the details better than I can, as I am a Californian who only visits Texas a couple of weeks a year...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

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by: Zack from the SFV @ Tue Sep 15, 2009 at 07:57:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]