This is my third (and hopefully final) version of a redistricting plan for Maryland. Thanks to Dave’s Redistricting application, the process was much easier this time for me, and I got a plan that virtually guarantees that 8 Democrats will be elected starting in 2012. In each district, Obama received at least 58% of the vote (and McCain received under 40%; MD-1 is rounded off to 40.0, but it’s technically 39.98%). The plan keeps the two majority African-American districts, and is also very incumbent-friendly (except for Bartlett ofcourse). I normally make these diaries super long, but not this time. Here’s the plan:
District 1
– Dark Blue
Obama 58.1%; McCain 40.0%
Combines Eastern Shore (57% of new district) with areas on the western shore in Harford and Baltimore Counties and Baltimore City. The new district is 33% African-American. Interestingly, the Baltimore County part is 62% African-American, but the Baltimore City part is only plurality African-American (not majority); I intentionally took out white-majority, yet very Democratic areas out of MD-7 (Charles Village, Mt. Vernon, Bolton Hill, etc.) so as not to do too much damage to Cummings’ district, while at the same time making MD-1 much more Democratic.
District 2
– Green
Obama 58.5%; McCain 39.5%
The new district largely mirrors the current district in Baltimore and Harford Counties; a good part of Anne Arundel is also the same. African-American areas in Baltimore City are taken out, but African-American areas in Prince George’s County are added, and the district remains politically almost exactly the same as before.
District 3
– Magenta
Obama 58.8%; McCain 39.3%
Like MD-2, the new MD-3 largely mirrors the current district. In some ways, it actually is kind of similar to what MD-3 looked like prior to 2002 (especially in Baltimore City). It’s a very Baltimore-oriented district, except for the 18% of the district that’s now in Montgomery County.
District 4
– Red
Obama 73.6%; McCain 25.6%
Majority African-American (50%+); 6% Hispanic; 38% white. Combines much of Prince George’s County (60% of new district) with mostly Republican areas in Anne Arundel County.
District 5
– Aqua Blue
Obama 61.5%; McCain 37.2%
New district is very, very similar to the current one.
District 6
– Gray
Obama 58.7%; McCain 39.4%
Combines parts of Montgomery County (57% of new district) with most of Frederick and Carroll Counties. Good luck to Bartlett if he runs here.
District 7
– Yellow
Obama 66.1%; McCain 32.3%
Majority African-American (50%+); 44% white; African-Americans are around 70-75% of the Democratic primary vote. Combines most of Baltimore City (56% of new district) with more Republican areas in Baltimore, Harford and Cecil Counties. African-American areas which were put in MD-2 as part of the 2002 redistricting are now returned to MD-7.
District 8
– Violet
Obama 59.1%; McCain 39.1%
Combines parts of Montgomery County (60% of new district) with a part of Frederick County and all of western Maryland.
I should add that the new plan is indeed gerrymandered, but not any more so than the current plan. Counties are split among districts, but again, it’s not any worse than currently. I can likewise envision the plan being implemented from a legal point of view. OK … that’s it; I said I would make it short. Your thoughts ….
As a Marylander, I’m proud of you!
The green district looks unnecessarily complicated. Would you consider trading the green parts of PG, Howard, and AA for the purple parts of Balt City and northern Balt County? I hope that works, for population. Then you would get a Baltimore-centric district and a Howard-centric district.
Currently only 3 Maryland Congressmen represent Montgomery and Prince Georges Counties. This plan will make it 6. It will be interesting to see how that changes things. I have a feeling Baltimore, used to being at the center of state politics, won’t like it.
was a brilliant Democratic gerrymander, the way they packed Republicans in the western and eastern parts of the state, guaranteeing Democrats 6 of 8 seats. But this is truly astounding. Lumping the panhandle in with Montgomery and snaking the Eastern Shore into Baltimore gives us 8 solid seats. With Republican strength collapsing in Maryland, there’s no reason we shouldn’t go for that.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Maryland Dems shore up Kratovil’s seat in 2012 (and despite what others are predicting, I don’t see Andy Harris coming back to beat him next year). However, I don’t expect them to go out of their way to bounce Bartlett, unless he retires, in which case they may decide to go aggressive on MD-08.
This is perfect. The Republicans wouldn’t stand a chance in any of these districts. Even district 1, which would be the least Democratic of the 8, would still have a Cook PVI of D+5.
Maybe you could try giving the Southern half of the Eastern Shore to District 5, giving the rest of Cecil to District 1, giving District 8 some more of Baltimore City, and then shifting everything else down. I haven’t tried it, but I think it would retain the same majorities but look prettier.
I think we all agree on the West, and I think, overall, this is a good model. It’s just a matter of playing around with it a little in the city to give the map some flow.
Nice work – that’s how they do it in Texas!
A couple comments/suggestions –
1) It looks like you have a significant number of non-African American majority Baltimore City precincts in the 7th, and the same thing with the 4th district in the area around College Park. If some of those could be given up to other districts and the 4th and 7th could take on a few more Republican precincts, while remaining majority black, that might be a slight improvement and create a cascade to make the rest of the districts a tad more Democratic. Or maybe you already have it pretty much maximized?
2) If the 2nd traded its part of Prince George’s County the 1st’s bit of Baltimore City, would that retain partisan balance? That might be tough to draw without using touch-point contiguity though.
3) A general point on splitting the Eastern Shore – perhaps MD-1 could lose Cecil County entirely since that is not completely Eastern Shore. That would allow Kratovil to give up at least a bit more GOP territory without “splitting the Eastern Shore.” E.G. you could trade Cecil County for Annapolis, even if you keep Kratovil’s section of Baltimore as it is.
I did something similar to your map, but I don’t have partisan data for it:
The main differences I see are:
1) I kept Frederick County whole in the 6th but took what I think are more Democratic parts of Montgomery County just outside DC. (My version of the 6th runs along the edge of the Potomac through Montgomery picking up literally no people until it gets close to DC). Would that be enough to compensate for not splitting Frederick?
2) CD-2 is a bit more focused on Baltimore, while CD-3 is a bit more focused on Howard, but Towson/North Baltimore City still remain with CD-3.
3) CD-1 crosses the Bay Bridge at Annapolis and moves into Prince George’s instead of going into Baltimore. Not sure whether this would make it as Democratic as your version. ?
4) My CD-7 is 50% Black and 44% White, and my CD-4 is 50% Black, 37% White, and 8% Hispanic.
put pictures into these diaries? I can’t figure it out, and I’ve got a redistricting diary I want to post but it’s no good without pics.
If you lump two D incumbents’ home towns they won’t like it. Van Hollen would be a resident of District 6 by this map, instead of his current District 8, so he would likely be the one to challenge Bartlett in this scenario. Would they both be marked on sample ballots as incumbents?
Very good work.