Well

This is a great development, and a wise decision on Mr. Markey's part. He's accumulated all that seniority in 30+ years, so why waste it on a Senate run?

I bet that John Tierney from the 6th district will run alongside Coakley, Lynch and Capuano. I just have the feeling he will. Tierney is a solid progressive.

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by: jsrosa @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 23:48:02 PM UTC

Coakley pretty much has got this one

Unless she does something incredibly stupid.  The only way I see her losing minus a scandal is if Lynch can consolidate all of the labor support and become a "nominal Republican" type of candidate that can attract enough GOP crossover votes due to his pro-life positions.  I don't see that happening.

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by: DFLer @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 23:48:49 PM UTC

Option B

The other way I can see Coakley having a hard time goes something like this:

The state Congressional delegation hashes out a deal whereby they agree to coalesce behind a single candidate with the premise being that whoever it is would get the Senate seat, and then the reshuffling that goes on in redistricting is much easier on down the line.

I was talking to someone I know who works in Mass politics today and he thinks that if such a deal were to be struck, that it would be either Tierney or more likely Capuano, with the thinking being that he has the strongest Dem base in the state to start from. (As a side note, I was mildly surprised to learn that Mass. had a minority majority district)

Another thing to watch for is who gets the Menino machine to play with in Boston. That's an endorsement that's actually worth something.

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by: displacedyankdem @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 00:26:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lynch isn't going to consolidate labor support

in fact, he might not get much among labor given his unwillingness to fight for a public option.

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by: JSmith @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 21:59:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's too bad that this is something

of a freebee for him. One positive outcome is that he might spend down his campaign cash and be vulnerable to a primary challenge. I would watch for whether he at least wins his own district.  

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by: andgarden @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 22:24:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not surprised.

He's risen so far in the House, it just doesn't make sense to switch this late. Ironically, he's the one who's been eying promotion to the Senate for the longest.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 00:00:11 AM UTC

Yeah...

...it's Coakley's to lose. But, for Lynch's sake, let's look at some exit polling from the '08 MA Dem Presidential Primary:

Liberal - 59%
Moderate - 34%
Conservative - 7%

So, assuming liberals pass on him, his ceiling is perhaps just a little over 1/3. Which, I doubt he could win with.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 00:20:11 AM UTC

Yes, but the GOP primary was interesting that time

The more conservative folks were probably drawn into the Romney - McCain contest.  A more representative sample would be the 2006 Governor Primary.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 01:28:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does MA have open primaries?

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by: andgarden @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 02:50:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Semi-open

Democrats and Independents can vote in the Dem primary and Republicans and Independents can vote in the Republican one.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 03:14:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I see

Not much reason to register with a party, then.

I'm all for closed primaries.  

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by: andgarden @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 03:33:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

That's why over half the voters in MA are registered unenrolled. (Including yours truly)

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 03:58:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Andrew Card isn't running

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

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by: jmartin4s @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 02:49:06 AM UTC

As if he ever had a chance

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 05:55:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He had zero chance of winning but he may have actually been pretty good campaigning

He was on the Daily Show a few years ago and came off very well.  Jon Stewart summed it up when he said "You're the nicest man I ever didn't want to like and yet I like you."  Maybe several years from now in a much different state he could actually do well.  But definitely not in Massachusetts in 2010.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 06:36:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

State of Things

Lynch is too conservative to win a Democratic primary in Massachusetts at this point. And I'm not even (only) talking about abortion; there's plenty of history suggesting that many liberal Dems will support pro-life candidates, but only if they have a record they like on other issues. His best shot would be that he'd have the easiest time distinguishing himself from a crowded field if one were to emerge. He would have a lot less competition for the moderate-to-conservative share of the electorate than the various liberal (or liberal-to-moderate in some cases) candidates would have vs. each other.  

Capuano's got a pretty short period of time to introduce himself to voters outside his district. He probably hasn't run many ads in a long time since in that district (MA-08 is the bluest district in the state by a decent margin, and that's saying something) a Democrat don't need to worry much about being re-elected. He seems to be someone that the true believer progressive types could get behind if they are really dissatisfied with Coakley. He'll have a fundraising advantage on Coakley too for the structural reason that state officials like Coakley can't use their campaign funds from state offices for federal offices.

Although if Capuano has to seriously compete with Tierney or someone else for the attention of this community, both of them are probably sunk. And of course there's some incentive for everyone in the House delegation to take a shot at this Senate seat right now. They don't have to give up their seat to do it, and one of their House seats likely disappears come 2012. (My wild guess is that John Olver retires.)

I take polls this early in the evolution of a race with a grain of salt since they are largely an exercise in name recognition.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 23:24:07 PM UTC

Lynch can only win

if there are a plethora of candidates running who can dilute the liberal vote. With just Coakley and Capuano, it's not going to happen. Coakley is probably the favorite because she has a base around Cambridge plus the rest of the state outside Boston and the southern suburbs.

As far as redistricting, I think Olver's seat goes and MA-01 gets sucked mostly into Richard Neal's Springfield district, which would become a Springfield, Northampton, Pittsfield, North Adams district, while the Franklin County and Worcester County portions of MA-01, as well as Milford from MA-02, go to Jim McGovern, who gets a Worcester-based district.  

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by: DTOzone @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 02:41:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

While I don't think Lynch will win....

....just to play devil's advocate.  Is he more conservative than say Ed King or John Silber?  Even Shannon O'Brien ran with the shadow her much more conservative father behind her.  Because the Democratic party is so dominant and the primaries are so open there is a history of not only the more conservative candidate pulling upsets but also the Democratic nominee being more conservative than the Republican nominee.

Be careful of early polling.  One could easily cite a dozen races where the "early favorite" faded hard and fast as the primary approached.

I'm still betting on Capuano.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 13:50:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

My money's on Mike Capuano.

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 18:13:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But you forget

Coakley has some history to help her out as she can become Massachusetts' first ever female Senator.  That's a huge deal for a deep-blue state like MA, as she can consolidate the female vote and will have the backing of national groups like EMILY's List.  Just look at the 2008 Presidential Primary results - other than winning the ultra-progressive 8th district, Obama did no better than 42% in any of the other districts despite being the favorite by the progressive netroots and being endorsed by both Kennedy and Kerry.  The female vote had a lot to do with that.  I understand the folly in picking an early winner, but as long as the Boston-area Reps. keep knocking heads Coakley will have a strong base to rely on come January.

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by: DFLer @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 16:44:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How I See Things.

Capuano and Lynch aren't really competing for the same pool of voters even though they represent adjacent districts in the Boston area. (And they're the only two House members who have jumped into the fray and time is running out on everyone else.)

Turnout is always crucial in a special election like this. Polls in these situations tend to overrate the kind of candidate who has support a mile wide and an inch deep.

Certainly it's a valid data point that the Bay State went for HRC in the primary over Obama despite some important endorsements for Obama, though I'm not sure how much of that can be attributed mostly to her gender. A lot of the local-level polticial operatives and organizations (mayors, party leaders, unions) in the state were behind Hillary; people tended to miss that because it was easier and "sexier" to talk about whether Massachusetts is racist (they voted in Deval Patrick just 18 months earlier, mind you - his unpopularity may have hurt Obama too) or whether women in Massachusetts wanted a woman President above all else.

Coakley does have the easiest path right now, no question about it.  

Lynch's path to the seat would be all of the people who like him least splitting those votes to the degree where his 35% ceiling (assuming he reaches it) becomes viable. It's not looking good.

Capuano's path is winning the unanimous support of the progressive community, getting his share of more of labor support, and at least a decent share of the vote among women outside those groups. In short, turn this into a replay of the 2002 gubernatorial campaign, playing the Robert Reich role (with Coakley in the Shannon O'Brien role) but winning this time because the state has changed in six years.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 17:46:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's a tall order for Capuano

to pull off.  And I think 2002 is a good template because the female vote will play a big role again in the Democratic primary.  Plus, I wouldn't worry too much about turnout for Coakley - much like Hillary in '08 or O'Brien in '02 women, especially senior women, prove to be very reliable votes in primary elections.  The problem with progressive candidates is that they tend to rely off of younger voters and minorities, groups that can't be counted on in low-turnout contests.  I agree that on paper Capuano can still win it, but it's a long shot.

In all though, this requires another candidate to get a large chunk of labor support away from Coakley.  If she sews that up she's in.

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by: DFLer @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 18:23:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wasnt Paul Tsongas

When he was a Sen, in the moderate wing of the MA Dem Party? His widow seems to be much more liberal.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 03:23:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

When's the filing deadline?

I know the primary is in December (the 8th I believe), but when is the filing deadline for the primary?

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by: corran horn @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 19:41:24 PM UTC

October 20 for party candidates, November 24 for non-party candidates

10,000 signatures are required. It will most likely just be a D and an R on the ballot.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 20:59:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]