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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 6:11 PM EDT


A special reminder to all state legislature fans out there (and I know there are a few of you): tomorrow will feature a special election for a GOP-held Delaware House seat. If Democrats can win the seat, they'll have a supermajority in the state House. Josh over at Ballot Box has another excellent rundown on the race. (UPDATE: The GOP wins by 324 votes.)
James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 130 comments
Still interested and undecided
on the New York City Comptroller race. Is Weprin the only CPA in the race? And if so, how important should that be as a qualification?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
It's kind of important but...
It's kind of important but the main job of the conptroller (or at least his most important job) is to invest the NYC Pension Fund. A knoweldge of investing and investment strategies and instruments is probably the most important qualification for the job (and sadly one that neither of the 4 politicians running for the office posses).

An investment guru like Jim Cramer or a former Wall Street guy like a Jon Corzine would be ideal for this job. Sadly since it is an elected offices usually politicians end up in the job and you get pay to play scandals like we had when Hevesi was Comptroller and big money managers paid off his cronies to get access to investing the pension fund.

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[ Parent ]
I get this
So is Weprin in fact a CPA, at least? Politics aside, who is most qualified for the job?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Most qualified is hard to say
They're all qualified. Who is the most in my mind keeps changing.

I'd say Melinda Katz, but sometimes I read about them and think John Liu, then sometimes Weprin, then sometimes Yassky.

I'm supporting Katz, but I think Liu will win.  

[ Parent ]
What criteria are you using to judge qualification
for this job?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
knowledge of city government
they all are current City Councilmen. Katz has been in city politics and government the longest of all of them. Weprin is chair of the Finance Committee, which works very close to the Comptroller. Yassky chairs Small Buisness, Katz chairs Land Use and Liu chairs Transportation and all these committees deal with legislation that involves the Comptroller in some way.

The funny thing about this campaign is because all are almost equally qualified, a major issue has been whether or not Comptroller should be first in line to succeed the Mayor...currently the first line is the Public Advocate, which is really kinda like the Vice President of the city (the PA is the President of the City Council). The PA is directly elected by the people and Mark Green, who was the first PA and the epic fail Democratic candidate for mayor in 2001 is running again for PA and many think he is running because of the possibility Bloomberg won't serve out his whole term (will he get appointed to a federal job, run for Governor, etc) and Green can finally become Mayor.

[ Parent ]
First I've heard of this
many think he is running because of the possibility Bloomberg won't serve out his whole term (will he get appointed to a federal job, run for Governor, etc) and Green can finally become Mayor.

I expect him to be wrong about that.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Sleeper Senate Races
These are races with pretty safe incumbents for either party, but I'm just interested to see if we've found anyone who can make a decent run, as well as the other side if they've done the same thing:

OR-Sen: Is Wyden vulnerable, especially after the health care fiasco over the summer?

KS-Sen: Do Democrats have someone lined up as an alternative to the Tiahrt-Moran slugfest?

AZ-Sen: Anyone credible and with balls to take on McCain?

ID-Sen: Let's make sure Crap-o doesn't get 99% of the vote like he did 5 years ago. I mean, those are Saddam Hussein numbers right there!

SD-Sen: I heard that Herseth-Sandlin is running for reelection, so who else is there to take on Thune?

GA-Sen, SC-Sen, IN-Sen: Haven't heard of anyone stepping up against Isakson, DeMint, and Bayh.

NY-Sen: Everyone's so focused on Hilary's old seat they forgot that Schumer is also running for reelection, but I guess everyone thinks it's impossible to beat the guy who brought in 14 new Democratic senators. Still, there must be SOMEONE out there who's crazy enough.

AK-Sen, HI-Sen: Murkowski and Inouye have really high approval ratings, so is anyone willing to challenge them?

Re OR-Sen
Nope, Wyden is about as safe as an incumbent can get. He's still very popular in Oregon and, more importantly, the ORGOP is almost non-existent save for Greg Walden (and he's not leaving his safe seat). Heck, their candidates for governor read like casting choices for the Three Stooges.
[ Parent ]
Has Inouye announced for reelection?
He's how old? 87 or something? I'm not convinced he won't retire.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
IDK, but...
http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureS...
According to his FEC report, it looks like it. Over 1 million CoH, and no debt.
[ Parent ]
Inouye officially kicked it off a while back
he's definitely running.  He will be 86 by election day but the understanding seems to be he's in the Senate until death.
[ Parent ]
Is he the one who lifts weights
according to his year?  Hmm, I don't think so; I think that was someone about sixty-something years old.  Abercrombie?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Yes, Abercrombie.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Abercrombie will be 72 in 2012
If he is elected Governor Hawaii will have a 72 year old governor and two 86 year old senators. It's a good thing Obama didn't stay in Hawaii to start his political career. A youngster like him wouldn't have had a chance.
[ Parent ]
Inouye will never retire--and never lose
Inouye couldn't lose even if King Kamehameha rose from the dead and ran against him.
[ Parent ]
What if Kamehameha
ran in a Democratic primary lol.

[ Parent ]
AL Sen too
Shelby is probably one of the safest incumbents. Bayh has a few state senate and a Tea Party leader running against him. Republican fundraiser, former State Rep., and judge, Dan Dumezich, is also considering the race
[ Parent ]
KS-Sen
The highest-profile Democrat who's been rumored to be considering a run is former Congressman Dan Glickman of Wichita. Glickman represented KS-04 for 18 years until he was defeated for re-election in the Republican Revolution of 1994 (coincidentally, by Todd Tiahrt). Glickman also served as US Secretary of Agriculture from 1995-2001. He's currently the CEO of the MPAA.
Of course, while a Glickman run might be the Dems' best shot, he's not exactly about to jump into the race. He's only been flirting with the idea; no exploratory committee or anything.

Retired communications executive Charles Schollenberger had expressed serious interest in the race this spring, but I'm not sure whether he's announced anything since then.

[ Parent ]
Glickman
Glickman won't run for Senate. He is making zillions as the head of the Motion Picture Association of America (i.e., the movie industry's chief lobbyist); he has too much to lose.
[ Parent ]
He's be crazy to run
Glickman would have to be insane to give up a cush job like head of the Motion Picture Association of America. He basically gets paid millions of dollars to hang out with Hollywood celebrities, go to parties and movie premires. Its the kind of job most people dream about.

No way you give up hanging with the A-list in Hollywood to get yelled at by some hick from Lawrence about healthcare reform.

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[ Parent ]
GA-Sen: We do have a candidate
http://www.rockdalecitizen.com...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Hadley seems like a good candidate. From talking to him and hearing others talking about him, he's more like Mike Thurmond than Thurbert Baker on the ideological scale (ie: center-left rather than center-right). His candidacy has been an "open secret" for months now considering he's been all over the state since April or so. I don't mean going to each section of the state once, I mean CONSTANTLY traveling around the state.
[ Parent ]
IN-Sen
GOPVoter is right. There's actually a somewhat crowded GOP field, with the most likely nominee being a GOP state legislator, farmer, and teabagger with the unfortunate name of Marlin Stutzman. Dumzeich is also considering the race, but being from Lake County (where Bayh has a much deeper Rolodex) and having some major fundraising overlap with those same names in Bayh's Rolodex would basically make him a sham candidate from the beginning.

Bayh obviously is expecting a tougher fight than he's used to, as he hired Anita Hill to be his campaign manager a couple of months ago, and has tacked hard right on all of the major issues in his usual triangulating attempt to get his "moderate" cred up. He's already lost progressives (the few that live here) and blacks, and he'll lose labor if he keeps opposing EFCA. Meanwhile, the rural whites he normally panders toward aren't necessarily going to support him just because his last name is Bayh, as they have last time. The teabagging in a lot of the rural parts of Indiana is at a frenzy right now, and Bayh hasn't accomplished much of anything in the 12 years he's been in Washington, except to very conspicuously appear to be trying to better his own lot with continuous (and futile) runs for President/VP that have accomplished nothing except angering his own constituents. (See also: Dodd, Christopher). Throw in the fact that purple-red states like Indiana are where we're likely to lose the most ground in an anti-incumbent year, and Bayh doesn't look quite as safe as the pundits make him out to be. Do I think he'll automatically lose? No. But he's making things a lot more difficult for himself than they need to be, and being a smug jackass on top of it really isn't helping him.  

[ Parent ]
Bayh
I feel if there is any incumbent that we are not yet targeting, but may target towards the end of the cycle, it is Bayh. One thing that hurts us though is his money, over 12 million CoH. I don't know about Marlin Stutzman. Maybe because thats also the name of an Orleans Parish law enforcement official, idk. But I think that out of people who may actually run, Dan Dumezich is the strongest. He would have the best name ID being a former Judge and state rep. He would also be the best fundraiser, as he is a Republican fundraiser.  
[ Parent ]
Right,
but remember what happened to Bart Peterson (not coincidentally once Bayh's right hand man) in the 2007 Indianapolis mayor's race. He pissed off his own base so much and took his own re-election for granted that he ended up losing to a no-name Republican despite being outspent 6-1. Indy is one of the more Democratic parts of the state. If it can happen here, the exact same thing can happen statewide, and so far Bayh is doing a damn good job of taking the people he needs to win for granted and generally coming off like a silver-spoon fed jerk who thinks he knows what's best for his constituents despite not having produced results. I'd vote for him if he ran for Governor again (not that he can), but as a legislator he's an egomaniacal train wreck.

I'll probably hate myself later for saying this to someone on the other side, but I won't cry too hard if Bayh loses as long as I still have Andre Carson as my Congressman. (It's like having John Lewis without the seniority). If you're an elected official, you need to stand for something besides yourself. All Bayh stands for is himself and his Lake Erie-sized (and scented) ego.

I didn't even mention Bayh's conflict of interest re: his wife's sitting on the board of Wellpoint while Bayh himself tacitly lobbies against real healthcare reform. The story's gotten a decent amount of media attention locally, and if Baucuscare ends up becoming law (which thankfully it doesn't look like it will), Bayh will be one of its first unintended victims, guaranteed.  

[ Parent ]
So,
You think that lots of Democrats are just going to leave the Senate space blank because of his conservatism? Interesting.
BTW, I think I read somewhere that if Bayh's steady shift to conservatism continues on the pace it did between the last two congresses, that by 2012, he would be more conservative than Jim DeMint. Not sure if thats true or not though.  
[ Parent ]
How could one be more conservative than Jim DeMint?
Contemplating that question reminds me of this memorable Spinal Tap quote:

Nigel Tufnel: It's like, how much more black could this be? and the answer is none. None more black.

[ Parent ]
Honestly, I have no clue.

[ Parent ]
More conservative than DeMint is silly.
It's a triangulating political calculation, and he'll tack left again as soon as he's clear, just as he's done for his entire political career.

I can't speak for the entire D base in Indiana having just recently moved here, but I get the sense that people are pissed, especially about his constantly thinking he deserves to be President when he hasn't accomplished anything in the Senate.  

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen, CA-Assembly
What's the deal with this new senator, George LeMieux, that Charlie Crist has apponted?

I see that red state is furious about this.  Maybe we should try to get Rubio to win the primary so that us dems have a better chance at winning the seat.

And what do you guys think about the odds of a dem taking Michael Duvall's seat in the CA assembly?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

My big question about LeMieux
Could he be that elusive Republican vote on health care reform? From most of what I've heard from/about him so far, he's a relatively sane guy and might be a good faith negotiator.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
But he is first and foremost a Crist ally...
... and he must know how bad that'd make Crist look in the GOP primary.
[ Parent ]
Crist is a favorite to win...
And do you really think that tool Rubio can win, it's only red staters who want him in office.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Well
It would be nice if Rubio either 1) Beats Crist (unlikely) or 2) Really beats up Crist so he's weakened in the general election.

If only Rubio had boatloads of money like Lamont did...then it would truly be a barnburner.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
CA-Assembly-72
    As much as it pains me to say, there's not a chance in hell for the Dems to pick up that seat. I hope someone runs but it is heavily GOP territory. The last redistricting was an incumbent protection plan with no more than a dozen (out of 120) competitive districts in the Legislature. Duvall's was not one of them.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
I think it's winable...
Orange county is starting to turn into a very light pink area, I think there may have a chance if the Dem running as a moderate.  I think it depends on how democras are polling when the election occurs.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
And the district itself is not that Republican.
While Republicans have a 9% voter registration edge, McCain only won by 3% and DuVall won by less than 10%.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I guess that area has changed
   more than I thought. I still think it is a steep uphill climb, but maybe out of the "no chance in hell" category.

  The 2011 legislative redistricting will be very interesting because of the changes in various parts of the state and because of the new commission doing the line drawing. The Congressional redistricting will still be done by the legislature, so it is more likely to be another round of incumbent protection.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
RE: Incumbent protection
It better not be. If they do that again I might even vote for giving the board authority to draw the Congressional districts as well. Incumbent protection is far more undemocratic than partisan gerrymandering.
[ Parent ]
Speaking of Delaware,
back on Aug 3th, Mike Castle said "in the next month or so" he'd decide his plans.
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

So this is the timeframe right now. Any recent hints?

He is one the few remaining 800-pound gorillas that have to make a decision.
(Maybe NY's Cuomo counts as one as well, but the CW seems to be he'll run for Gov.)

Still Consideering
Yesterday I read that he was still considering, and I'd assume very close to a decision.
[ Parent ]
The longer time goes on
the less and less likely it is he runs for Senate.  At this point I'd be shocked if he does anything besides retire at the end of his term.  Does he really want to risk ending his career with a painful loss after a long and bruising campaign?  When is the last time a 71 year old freshman was even elected to the Senate?

(and no, Lautenberg doesn't count, those were unusual circumstances)

[ Parent ]
CT-Sen
Dodd trails Simmons by 10 per rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

The Delaware election has been caused by a loss of Democratic senate seat.
Any details of this loss.
An analysis would be even better.
Their Senate Majority Leader Pro Tem died
in late June.  He was an old, very conservative Democrat representing a rural Republican-voting district and held up a lot of progressive legislation.  Losing the seat in the special election was expected.  But 3/5 of 21 state Senate seats is 12.6 and they now hold iirc 13.

The chamber finally got some gay nondiscrimination legislation through in July after trying for more than five years.  Delaware state law is in need of some major overhaul- it's the only state north of the Potomac that still disenfranchises for life those convicted of felonies (around 10,000 people last I checked) and it still has capital punishment on the books.  Republicans had majority in the state House until the November 2008 elections, though, so Democrats have only had a few months of majorities in both chambers.

Delaware also has those ridiculously high highway tolls and lax incorporation laws to attract companies like MBNA to the state.  I doubt even a Democratic supermajority will change either anytime soon.

[ Parent ]
Actually
I think the Dem's margin in the DE Senate is 15-6 now. It was 13-8 before the 2008 election, and then the Dems picked up 3 seats before losing this previous one.

I forget who, but someone on this site did an excellent rundown of that senate seat, the open house seat, and DE legislative politics in general.

[ Parent ]
By the way, I'm officially in New York now
now that I've gotten a (for the academic year) permanent place to stay.

Which means I can now start considering going to meetups if anyone here organizes them, as well as attempting to discover this highly-touted treat called babka.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

If you go to Zabar's on Broadway and 80th
You can buy a Green's babka for 8 bucks. Well worth the investment, I assure you.
[ Parent ]
I'm around 120th
so maybe I'll do that sometime.  Probably not today, yet, though.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Check out the Harlem branch of Fairway
It's actually much bigger, and it's a lot closer to you:

2328 12th Avenue, corner of 132nd St.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Walking distance for me
Welcome to the city GMH.
[ Parent ]
no help with babka
but head to Veniero's on 11th between 1st and 2nd Avenues for chocolate-dipped cannolis!
[ Parent ]
Disagree
I live in the East Village and don't think much of Veniero's, which used to be good (never really great) 15-20 years ago.

The best Italian pastries I've gotten in New York were in Bensonhurst, Brooklyn:

Villabate

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Vacarro's
In Baltimore, the place to go for Italian pastries is Vacarro's in Little Italy.
[ Parent ]
oh my is it already again time for your
random 1980s music video of the week? Hmm, I think I will go with something a little different. This song really grapped me in by Arcade Fire and an Indy Canadian Group. The lyrics are really dark and the song has such self-contained fire and power, dark mulling work, my favorite. It is just a very powerful work, I like to sit and merely think to it:



Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Ah yes...
I too have become an Arcade Fire fan lately, and I generally dislike most rock bands that have emerged since my birth year (1985). Other exceptions include Pearl Jam and the Foo Fighters.

BTW, if anyone's seen the trailers for that Where The Wild Things Are movie, an Arcade Fire song is played there too: Wake Up (my personal favorite).

[ Parent ]
I am a bit more open to rock bands.
At least up until around 2000.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
don't know if this counts
but I have been thinking about why Jews are liberals and why Norman Podhoretz is asking the wrong question. Instead of complaining that Jews are liberals, he should be asking himself why most Jewish moderates and even some Jewish conservatives vote for Democrats anyway. The Christian right takeover of the GOP is largely responsible, in my opinion.
The religious right has a lot to do with it
But I think what it comes down to is that most  Jews are just really liberal. You find me another demographic group in America where 81% support marriage equality.
[ Parent ]
how about
The GLBT demographic?  ;)

But that's quite the statistic

[ Parent ]
AZ-Sen
Gordon said he won't take on McCain right?  So who else is there with Goddard going after Brewer.

29/D/Male/NY-01
re
Has Gordon really ruled it out? Giffords has been mentioned, but that seems very highly unlikely. There is a declared candidate already: former city councilman Rodolfo Garcia. Probably not high-profile enough, but better than nobody.
[ Parent ]
Rudy Garcia
is a former mayor of a city in California who retired to AZ.

I really don't want Gordon to raise his profile this way.  He is a real DINO who has endorsed McCain and many other Republicans in the past.  I'm not talking about a Giffords-style centrist -- this is a real Joe Lieberman kind of guy.

We are not going to take out McCain.  I think our best shot at this point is to run an Andrew Rice sort of race and tie him down to AZ while raising the profile of a young rising star.  Rodney Glassman has the right kind of profile for a race like this, as presumably do others.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
All I want is either dailykos or PPP
to poll McCain vs. Giffords

Is that so much to ask?????

[ Parent ]
SC-02
I wonder how long this boomlet will continue.

And I hope that Miller uses it well, so we don't blunder this the way Tinklenberg did.  Which, in his defence, he had very little time to actually get things together, and had the independence party person not been in the way, might have replaced an anti-public-transport person with a pro-public-transport person.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Since when I was on around 1.5 hours ago, he raised 4K
That's still a decent pace.  And apparently he raised 1 million total last night when he posted a DKos diary and Actblue was around 800K IIRC.  So he's up to around 1.005K raised in... 3 days
[ Parent ]
We should each do what we can.
I had a jury trial this week, so was unaware of the boomlet.  In fact, by the time I heard of it Miller had raised his (first) million.  Nonetheless I spoke with my wife this morning, and we made our own very, very modest contribution.  We encouraged friends to do likewise.  Really, Wilson just made an ass of himself (and embarrassed every decent American before the entire world) a couple of days ago.  I believe we should each of us make at least some modest effort to keep the boomlet alive.
[ Parent ]
Scott Brown Announces for MA SEN
Nevada
I don't think this has been mentioned on SSP yet, based on what I can found, but Nevada Speaker Barbara Buckley unexpectedly announced she will NOT run for Governor.

That makes it more probably Rory Reid will end up as the Democratic nominee, which should arguably create all sorts of problems for the party. So this is presumably an important development in the 2010 prospects of both Reids.

Other possibilities
What about Ross Miller, the SoS? Has he given any hints about running for governor?
[ Parent ]
Ugh, two Reids
That'll put us on track to lose both the governor's mansion and the Senate seat.
[ Parent ]
Sadly, I agree.
Harry and Rory (Thelma and Louise?) really seem to be on course to drag each other down and take the family's name with them.

This is why Democrats need discipline. Even if Harry and Rory are going to be as estranged as Bush Sr. and Bush Jr, the Bushes - as horrible as they are - can at least agree not to get in each others' way during the same election cycle...well, except for maybe Neil, but there's one in every family.  

[ Parent ]
Charlie Cook
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

So which are you - Loyalist, Purist or Skeptic?

Personally, I'm more in the Loyalist camp though by no means do I think it doesn't matter if a dozen or so "Blue Dogs" lose next year. I guess I'd call myself a realist in that in a newly elected president's first midterm that is likely to happen anyway. I'm certainly not a Skeptic - maybe UpstateDem and BillNolan are in that category.

Can one be a pragmatic purist?
I mean, my ideological politics are most certainly of the purist variety, but I'm no fool.  Pete Stark, Jan Schakowsky, Dennis Kucinich, Tammy Baldwin, Barbara Lee, Bernie Sanders, Lynn Woolsey, John Lewis, and John Conyers might be my heroes, but they won't cut it across the nation. That said, I really have a hard time with the "Skeptics" and really believe that, with all the people I personally registered in 2008, it's not as big a crowd as Charlie says.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
VA-Gov: McDonnell drops the F-bomb in a live interview
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

McDonnell answered: "I'm going to find other ways to be able to fund transportation. I've outlined twleve f-ing funding mechanisms that are creative, that are entrepreneurial."

What do McDonnell and Cheney have in common
They are two extremely conservative republican who like the swear a lot. Let win the Virginia and New Jersey gov races and NY 23 and put the republicans in their place!
[ Parent ]
So??
Biden's done it too.  
[ Parent ]
Biden doesn't go around
preaching family values and attacking people for things like this.

I have no problem with politicians throwing around vulgar words...I don't even have a problem with politicians having affairs or getting/giving head in airplane bathrooms...I have a problem with hypocrites who don't practice what you preach.

[ Parent ]
Does he preach
that you should never say "fuck" in an interview? I think so-called "family values" are basically anti-gay and sometimes sexist. I haven't heard lots of talk about how it's of extreme importance for politicians never to curse, because cursing is not a "family value."

More importantly, though, does anyone think this kind of thing will change any minds in Virginia?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Well of course they are
I recall back in 1992 that in a Dan Quayle rally, the people were chanting "Family Values Forever, Gay Rights Never"
[ Parent ]
Right
My point is that "family values" aren't really about families, but anti-gay and to some extent anti-feminist (women's place is in the home, etc.).

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Well I think the second one is probably by the boards
they continue to demand control of a woman's sexuality, but I think Sarah Palin has probably weaned most of the right off of demanding that married women not work.
[ Parent ]
He is part of a movement
that would generate outrage if such a thing was said by another person on television.  
[ Parent ]
Republicans reserve the right
to be entirely hypocritical about such things.  
[ Parent ]
If I may?
That fucking asshole has some nerve swearing like that! We shouldn't have to listen to that bastard shit-talk like that! What the hell is the damn world coming to?!

:D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
PA-07
Bryan Lentz hires Neil Oxman, Ed Rendell's media guy. He's really good.
NJ-Gov Poll
Looks about right
This matches up almost exactly with that Rassy poll we saw earlier.
[ Parent ]
hmmm
Another indication that this race is far from settled is how the race stands when the preferences of all registered voters are considered, including those both likely and unlikely to vote on November 3rd. Among all registered voters, the "horse race" narrows to basically a tie, 41% for Corzine and 40% for Christie. The Republican had a 4 point lead among registered voters in the August poll and a 6 point lead in July.

Confirms what I thought about this race: in order to win, Corzine needs to get the base out. An Obama rally close to election day would probably be helpful, but he has to execute perfect GOTV.  

[ Parent ]
Quote of the day
"Negative campaigning in New Jersey is nothing new, but past polling tells us that voters usually
don't notice that negative tone until October. Getting the electorate to register its disapproval of the
campaign's conduct immediately after Labor Day is truly an accomplishment." -- Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray
[ Parent ]
PA-06, 07
The field was cleared for former US Attny Pat Meehan to run in the 7th district. The other Republican in the race, Steven Welch, is now running in the 6th district, to replace Jim Gerlach. http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_av...
Charlie Rangel
Looks like more ethics problems for Charlie Rangel:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

He failed to report rental income on another property that he owned and might have lied on a mortgage document claiming a loan he was taking was for a primary residence when he was living in 4 rent controlled apartments.

Watch the Republicans start talking about culture of curruption.

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NY
Ugh, I'm all for Innocent until proven Guilty, but Rangel is killing us.  And its not like hes some great Liberal.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Rangel (and Jack Murtha)
Well, the Republicans would be stupid not to make an issue out of it. Pelosi hasn't done a thing about it. She needs to "drain the swamp" by forcing those two out, but I guess she either lacks the backbone or doesn't care.
[ Parent ]
Since when
do Democrats ever drain the swamp?

More likely, they'll call for a committee on swamp draining, which will conduct extensive research on swamps, subpoena the fauna of several swamps to testify on swamp draining, issue Sternly Worded Letters to the raccoons who fail to show for the hearings, hold an extensive debate about the presence of frog's legs on the Congressional cafeteria's menu, then knock off for the summer.

That's basically what they did with Bill "Cash In the Freezer" Jefferson, who was about 87 times more obviously corrupt than Rangel, and enough of a backbencher that throwing him out would've had absolutely no adverse political consequences. Same with John "my job is to make the Federal Government pay for my constituents' pet projects and I'll admit it on the record" Murtha, except for the seniority. Rangel is even worse.

Congress is just too damn collegial. Primaries are the only answer. Surely we can find a self-funder with the balls to stand up to Rangel in a district as wealthy as NY-15. If Congress can't handle policing themselves, it's our job to do it for them.  

[ Parent ]
I can understand keeping Murtha
He's in a Republican district, one that may be hard to keep in a special election should he resign. But William Jefferson and Rangel were/are in extremely safe districts. (except for Joseph Cao), and both would have easily been Democratic after a special election
[ Parent ]
Right,
so there's no excuse not to throw them out of the caucus, or at least censure them - especially after Jefferson was indicted and there was absolutely nothing to lose from it.  
[ Parent ]
The
problem with trying to primary a rep who's served a few decades in a heavily democratic district is, once one person gets in, at least half a dozen get in.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Rangel is bulletproof!
Rangel is bulletproof in his district. No Republican could get more than 20% of the vote. In fact it was so hopeless that for year the Manhattan GOP would just cross endorse Rangel and give him the Republican line too.

As for a Democratic primary. Forgetaboutit! No one is beating Rangel. He is just too much of an institution in his Harlem that can be quite forgiving of ethical lapses in politicians.

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[ Parent ]
Upper West Side
Rangel's district comprises not just Harlem but large areas of the Upper West Side. I'm not sure if that changes anything in regard to primaries, or if anyone else already mentioned it.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Murtha is not in a GOP district
The only Democrat to lose this district was Obama and he did so very narrowly.  Any white Democrat would easily win the district.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
The GOP bench is pretty skimpy in PA-12.
[ Parent ]
Just going by Cook PVI

[ Parent ]
It's very intrinsically Democratic
but the trend is pretty clear. I am a little bit curious about how it would fall as an open seat.  
[ Parent ]
Do you really believe
that say for example, Hillary wouldn't have won have this district by at least 10%?  

PA-12 is a Democratic district.  Obama was a horrendous fit for the district in every way, and still it was close.  Unless the Dems clone Obama and run him for Congress, the GOP won't win it as an open seat.

I actually think this will be the seat eliminated in redistricting, and its parts used to shore up Dahlkemper and Altmire (if they survive 2010, which I think they will).

[ Parent ]
Yes, Hillary would have won easily
She killed in the district during the primary by, I think, 40 points. She also would have locked up Ohio in the spring. So if your point is that candidates matter, I absolutely agree.

But if you look at the trend in the district over the last 20 years, abstracted away from Obama, the shift is clear. See here for example.

[ Parent ]
Sure it has been trending away from the Dems
but not enough to allow a Repub to win this district at any level but for President (or in a landslide for a popular GOP incumbent statewide).

It is not as strong as in the 1980s, when Mondale and Dukakis crushed Reagan and Bush while they were getting crushed nationwide.  But then again you can afford to lose a few points from then.

[ Parent ]
LMAO!!!!!
So true! Sadly it is so true!

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[ Parent ]
The best take away message from that is
it isn't Congress' job to police themselves, it's ours, and this isnt a new concept, obviously.  The power of incumbency is so disgustingly strong that dislodging these guys is just ridiculous.

My question would be (especially in the Jefferson's case), were his constituents that ignorant to his ethical and legal problems or did they just not care?

[ Parent ]
Don't care

[ Parent ]
Why can't we clean house?
I want to see our house cleaned.  Now.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
IA-Gov
I got behind on my IA-Gov coverage this week but posted a roundup of recent campaign events at Bleeding Heartland. Chet Culver made some campaign hires, Republican front-runner (for now) Bob Vander Plaats officially declared, and a new "Draft Branstad PAC" has been active.
PPP is doing the vote thing again this week
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Everyone PLEASE vote for Arizona

Missouri
"I'm still interested in whether the Rasmussen poll showing Carly Fiorina within four points of Barbara Boxer had any merit to it and obviously the Governor's race is interesting too."

No idea why because R2K already showed it was garbage.

[ Parent ]
Missouri for me too
We havent seen anything here in awhile, and seems to be somewhat interesting, unlike AZ. I have no clue how Georgia made it in. On Tuesday, if Missouri shows no chance of winning, I am gonna change to whatever is closest to AZ. I want to see all of them, except for Georgia.  
[ Parent ]
AZ-Gov isn't interesting?

[ Parent ]
Well yeah
But Sen isnt. I'm much more interested in the Senate race in MO, the Senate and Governor race in OH, and the Senate and Governor race in CA
[ Parent ]
McCain vs Giffords
is all I want to see
[ Parent ]
gabby
shell wait to take out kyl nxt time round. and i think she will too

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
Exactly
No use in trying to take out McCain the faux maverick.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
They aren't even polling Giffords
Well, I spose that may not necessarily be true but the post paired with the poll only said they'd be polling Napolitano against McCain.

I voted AZ, I want to see the Gov race and the Senate numbers are interesting enough to take a look like.  Not important not plausible that she'd run, but interesting nonetheless.

AZ has independent redistricting doesnt it?

[ Parent ]
I'm a bit biased since I nominated it, but vote AZ!
The Gov race is probably winnable but under polled.  As for Senate, I doubt McCain gets close to losing but a poll would be nice.  I remember a few months ago Ras did a poll where AZ voters thought he was out of touch (it didn't go into head-to-heads).  It'll be interesting to follow up on that to see if a strong Democrat is able to be competitive.  

One additional down ballot advantage to AZ is Napolitano's numbers.  She's probably out for 2010, but a 2012 run against Kyl is far from unlikely.  It's worth seeing if AZ voters still like her, or if the right wing extremism report damaged her.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
WTF?
Whats so interesting about GEORGIA?!? How did it take off so fast?  
[ Parent ]
Have they polled since Barnes entered the race?
There are five big name (at least compared to the guys who just file that no one knows about) Democrats in the race for governor and seven Republicans (with four who could win).  One of the frontrunners on the Republican side (Nathan Deal) has run into some ethics trouble.   Plus, there have been some rumblings about vulnerability for Isakson, both in the primary and in the general.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
CO-Gov
I've seen polls lately that show Ritter completely underwater - he's losing his base, but nobody really likes McInnis, either. I personally think we're more likely to lose CO-Gov than we are to lose CO-Sen. (purple state with a polarized base and large, agitated GOP minority + current anti-incumbent executive mood at the state level almost everywhere.)

Does anyone with a better understanding of Colorado politics than I have agree with me, or am I misreading?  

No, that seems right
But I'm more hopeful.  McInnis and his erstwhile protege, State Sen. Josh Penry, are NOT well known outside the Western Slope, though Penry has a faux moderate thing going for him.  It seems unlikely, to me, anyway, that they'll get their name rec. up in time. In my lifetime (since 1981), I can only think of one of our Govs who came from outside the Front-Range corridor--Roy Romer from rural Holly, Colorado.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Scott McInnis
Im not too familiar with CO politics, but I was under the impression he was very well known based on his poll numbers?  
[ Parent ]
Low key long-termer
To the extent he's known, it's on the Western Slope in areas like Grand Junction and among...well...wonks like us.  He'll win his former stomping grounds of CO-03 handily (those he'd likely lose the mountain counties and, maybe, Durango), and win the fundy areas of CO-05 and CO-06 for lack of a better option.  He'll equally get killed in CO-01 and CO-02.  It's the Democratic-leaning Denver burbs that would decide. That and organized labor needs some bones thrown it's way.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Hmm...good to know.
That gives me a bit more hope, though I suppose Ritter could still easily lose in a close race, given the craziness of Colorado's Republican base and their predisposition to vote straight-ticket R regardless of the nominee. If Denver and Boulder don't turn out in appreciable quantities - and there's no indication that many of them will - we could still lose this one simply due to the energy difference between parties. I don't think it's about independents so much as about apathetic Dems vs. energized R's. On the other hand, if I'm remembering correctly, McInnis voted for quite a few pro-gay initiatives during his time in Congress and against Musgrave's DOMA, so he can't be popular with the Colorado Springs loonies despite his otherwise incredibly conservative record.

Anyway, thanks.

[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 130 comments

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