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SC-02: Miller Edges Heckler Wilson in New Poll

by: James L.

Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 2:11 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (9/10-11, registered voters):

Rob Miller (D): 44
Joe Wilson (R-inc): 43
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±3.6%)

Whoa. Based on some earlier teasing from PPP's Tom Jensen, it sounded like Wilson's outburst against Obama was not hurting him at all in his district, but that's clearly not the case according to the complete results of the poll. Voters disapprove of Wilson's outburst by a 62-29 margin, and 49% say that they're less likely to vote for him (with 35% being more enthused to re-elect him). That's despite a bare plurality of voters thinking that Obama was actually telling the truth about his health care plan's coverage of illegal immigrants (46-42).

I guess that New York Times piece filled with gushing praise for Wilson from back home may need to be re-examined...

UPDATE: According to Roll Call, a "GOP source" is claiming that Wilson has raised $700,000 since his outburst in Congress. There's no way to tell if that number is utter bullshit (which I suspect it could be), as the GOP has no real widely-used equivalent of Actblue that serves as a publicly-viewable online fundraising conduit. The only comparable tool they have, Slatecard, shows a $725.00 tally for Wilson. Considering that Slatecard has redirected its main page traffic to a special "Support Joe" page, that's pretty pitiful. Third quarter fundraising reports will be due on October 15th, so we'll have to wait to find out just how fiercely GOP donors are rallying behind Wilson. Until then, I suspect that part of that $700K figure may include a few "pledges".

LATER UPDATE: Miller's campaign has said that it's pulled in a million bucks in the past 48 hours.
James L. :: SC-02: Miller Edges Heckler Wilson in New Poll
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SC-02: Miller Edges Heckler Wilson in New Poll | 48 comments
Rather shocking
Here's the question: does anyone believe that Obama has a 38% approval rating with whites in this district? I'd want to see similar corroborating polls first.
Is that high or low...?
Is a 38% approval from whites high or low for this southern district?
[ Parent ]
Probably too high
But, remember, this isn't the worst of South Carolina...that distinction belongs to the upcountry 3rd and 4th CDs.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
The whites in the 5th and 6th
are as bad or worse than those in the 3rd and 4th, it just doesn't appear obvious because of the higher black population in those districts.  I think Obama's worst performance in the state among whites came in SC-6.
[ Parent ]
Really?
I'd buy all that rural territory in SC-05, but SC-06 has Columbia, yes?  Wouldn't there by some youth and government types that would be more liberal even if they were white?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
The 6th is about 60% black in 2008
That is about 7/43 or 15% (if you assume that 57% of the voters in 2008 were black and a small portion of them voted for McCain) whites who voted for Obama.  That is less than any of the other districts, although SC-5 comes close.

Most of the white youth and government types in Columbia live outside the 6th, and in SC-2.  The rest of the area in the 6th is rural, and the white minority there is racist and embittered and would have voted for anyone over Obama.

[ Parent ]
One might have to do the math
This is a 27% black, 68% white district, and Obama pulled in 45% of the vote here last year. How many whites did he win over? To get 45%, obviously a few. As I have a class in a few minutes, I can't get into the numbers any deeper than that.
[ Parent ]
Yes indeed
this is not your typical Southern rural district that is full of birthers and teabaggers.
[ Parent ]
I assume he got about 20%
Let's play with the numbers:

(.95*.27)+(.2*.68)+(.5*.05)*100%=41.75% (I'm allocating the "other" vote evenly).

(.95*.27)+(.25*.68)+(.5*.05)*100%=45.15%

So this would be higher than he got last fall--much:

(.95 * .27) + (.38 * .68) + (.5 * .05)*100% = 53.99%

[ Parent ]
That's assuming that
the black turnout was proportional, but I do imagine that it was at least pretty close.
[ Parent ]
PPP puts it a little lower for (I assume) 2010
But however you cut it, Obama probably didn't break 30% with whites in this district.
[ Parent ]
It is a bit too high
but not that high.  I'd believe 30% out of this district.  I'd be willing to believe that out of the 6 SC districts, Obama does the best among whites in SC-1 and SC-2.

His support among whites in SC-3, 4, 5, and 6 may well be in the single digits.

[ Parent ]
Single digits is probably an exaggeration
probably more like the teens.
[ Parent ]
Clearly competitive
But when the storm passes I'm not seeing it. I'm reminded of Mad Michelle Bachmann who trailed Patty Wetterling in 2006 at the height of Mark Foley and then trailed El Tinklenberg after her patriotism comments. And SC-02 is way more Republican than MN-06.
An important difference being
the fact that El Tinklenberg, getting most of his resources at the last minute, was forced into a three week campaign blitz in order to make himself well-known and fundamentally competetive.  Rob Miller has over a year to set up campaign groundwork.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Not really true
And SC-02 is way more Republican than MN-06.

Obama got 45% in both districts

[ Parent ]
There's always this discussion about the deep south
the problem is, where do you get the extra vote to have a majority? You need to start flipping conservative whites.  
[ Parent ]
SC-1 and SC-2 are probably less Southern
than the rest of the state.  There are a lot of Northern transplants there, who are reasonable conservative independents and Republicans, rather than only birthers and teabaggers.
[ Parent ]
That would better explain these poll results
But I'm not quite ready to declare South Carolina Flordia2.
[ Parent ]
No it is not
but it is Virginia III (North Carolina is Virginia II).
[ Parent ]
Georgia is Virginia III
South Carolina can be Virginia IV.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Hmm
Depends on how you look at the VA I, NC (VA II) situation...I think a better parallel might be WV (VA III). It's all about DC baby.
[ Parent ]
Here's how
Virginia has a rapidly growing suburban area that is growing increasingly diverse, along with the fact that the whites in that area are less like your prototypical Southern white.  This area, which is growing more Democratic as a result of said changes, has pulled the state into the Democratic column.

Georgia has a rapidly growing suburban area that is increasingly diverse and seeing much of its white population   Huge Democratic gains in the cities and suburbs, along with much smaller gains here and there elsewhere, shaved 13 points off the Republican margin of victory.  

Mark my words.  In the next decade, we will be talking about Metro Atlanta area the same way people talk about Northern Virginia.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
FWIW, I just asked Tom Jensen by email
for party by race and race by party in this district. He responds:

Democrats are 54% black, 41% white
Republicans are 93% white, 4% black
Independents are 80% white, 14% black

Whites are 51% Republican, 30% independent, 19% Democratic
Blacks are 76% Democratic, 17% independents, 7% Republican

I think that gives a pretty good idea of the base level of polarization.  

[ Parent ]
Watch Out For Registration #s
Voter registration numbers are a lagging indicator, especially in the much of the South, where there are a lot of "Democrats" who haven't voted to send a Democrat to DC in any capacity since Jimmy Carter, or maybe Fritz Hollings/Sam Nunn/Howell Heflin. (Although that may have played itself out some if Dem ID #s are down to 19% in this district.)

It now works the other way too, where there are a lot of districts in the suburbs of large cities in the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast (and in a few cases, even quasi-rural areas like much of New Hampshire) that have a nominal Republican advantage that were won by Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Obama.

South Carolina is a little behind the curve on Yankee infiltration. It has nothing comprable to Northern Virginia or South Florida or even to Metro Atlanta or the NC Triangle.
 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
No registration by party in SC
these are all party ID figures.  
[ Parent ]
From what I gathered about SC
Is that many of these growing areas, like Charleston and Myrtle Beach, have been flooded with citizens from the Midwest like Ohio. South Carolina was one of states in the last decade that increased their % of Catholic residents, mostly attributed to Midwestern Catholics moving down there. That would also probably contribute to the notion that these residents are a swing bloc, possible to convince for voting Democratic.
[ Parent ]
An Indie Campaign from the Right
would be just what we need to peel this one off.
[ Parent ]
Take your point
Actually even by PVI the difference is only two points. But I'm still not seeing it.
[ Parent ]
I am
Charleston and Columbia metro are moving the same way that Northern VA, the Triangle, and Charlotte metro are.  Toward the Democrats in big numbers.
[ Parent ]
Nice Numbers, But...
this is on the heels of Wilson's outburst, and we're a year away from the midterms. So there's nothing much these numbers can tell us except that Wilson's outburst mostl likely hurt him than helped him.  
Not shocking
This is not your traditional Southern rural district full of birthers and teabaggers.  This district has a lot of "respectable" upscale Republicans in Richland, Lexington and Beaufort counties, and is 27% black.  

Rob Miller won 46% in 2008 for a reason.  Obama got 45% there.

Primary challenge?
Could Wilson be vulnerable to a challenge in the Republican primary?
Doubtful
It is very likely that the majority of Republicans in the district approve of his outburst.
[ Parent ]
Party breakdown?
If 65% really disapprove of the outburst, some large portion of that would have to be Republican.  Does anyone have the registration stats for that CD?
[ Parent ]
Follow the links
Wilson has a 68% approval rating with Republicans.  
[ Parent ]
SC does not register by party EOM

[ Parent ]
My take on Wilson vs. Miller
I lived for 8 years in Columbia, just barely inside the 6th (just outside the 2nd).  

Lexington County is a huge GOP stronghold, but it is middle class and well educated. It responses much stronger to Chamber of Commerce type Republicans, than Bob Jones/Bible-belt social conservatives.

Beaufort County is similiar but with wealthy retirees being the source of the GOP votes.  Miller is a retired Marine and Parris Island is in Beafort County, along with a substantial base of veterans.  Of course, Wilson is military too, but at least Miller can match him on that.    

These numbers are believable, but like all polls, it is a snapshot in time.  Wilson's behavior going forward is going to be a factor.

Having $800k-$1mm this early is better than having $2mm on Oct. 1.  Miller raised a total of $632,000 for the entire 2008 campaign, and will probably double that this time, perhaps more.

He also has a race under his belt, and also the credibility of a strong showing last time. Future donors will be attracted to him because of his already large warchest.  Plus the time he might have had to spend on raising money can now be spent getting votes.  

While Bush's incompetence is a fading memory, Sanford is really embarrassing the state, and pissing nearly everyone off. The GOP brand is tarnished very badly right now. [Sanford, potentially gay Lt. Governor, State Treasurer quit over coke addiction] Sanford will NOT be going quitely either.  That drama still has many chapters to go, and the GOP's image will take a beating the whole time.  

Despite all that, and the benefit that gives to Miller, Wilson's outburst is DEFINITELY overshadowing Sanford's drama at the moment.

There will be a ton of candidates for a long list of statewide offices(no incumbents for Gov, Lt. Gov, Atty Gen, Supt. of Education).  The potential for very bitter and divisive races (in the GOP) across the board is huge.  

Bottomline, this IS DEFINITELY a winnable race for Miller,IMO.  A nearly Safe GOP seat has turned into  almost a "Lean GOP" seat, at least for now.      

Yeah
South Carolina has to be one of the most politically interesting states of the coming cycle, after several cycles of GOP stability.  The sheer number of embarrassing GOP officeholders the Republicans have had to deal with will come back to hurt them.  SC-Gov could easily turn into one of the most contested races of 2010 should this Sanford/Bauer freakshow continue.  Parts of the state are shifting away from them just the way they did in North Carolina and Georgia.
[ Parent ]
Still an Uphill Battle
But it's great that what should be an easy GOP hold will probably require lots of resources from the NRCC to defend, thereby siphoning their resources from the more vulnerable Democratic-held seats.  I don't think making the "right-wing loon" argument would stick here - it rarely does in GOP-heavy districts.  Rather, making this an issue of Wilson's temperament and character could stick with voters.  It would fit in nicely with the overall theme against the SC GOP in 2010 - they've been in office for so long they think they can make fools of themselves and get away with it.  Several candidates have been successful using this model.
[ Parent ]
What's the matter with South Carolina!
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Bauer, Sanford, DeMint, and now Wilson! I wonder who's next?

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
You forgot to mention...
their more dubious senator and his *bachelor status...  
[ Parent ]
I could possibly see us
winning SC-1 and SC-2 but losing SC-5 in the next two cycles.  

Democrats need a new strategy in states like South Carolina.  Quit trying to pitch to rural white conservatives and make a serious appeal to people in places like the suburbs of Columbia and Charleston.

[ Parent ]
Good point on getting this money now rather than later.
If Wilson had made this outburst, say, a year from now in 9-2010, the large amount money that would've flowed in to Miller so close to the election probably would've just created a Tinklenberg-type situation for his campaign.
[ Parent ]
This certainly gives Miller an opportunity
Rather than just "the outburst," I think that Miller can point out that Joe Wilson is not just a conservative, but one of the most extreme conservatives in the Republican caucus.  Progressive Punch has him ranked 414th out of 434 members rated.  If indeed this is a district with a lot of more moderate/conservative suburban whites, maybe a more blue-doggish Dem who is a Marine and Iraq War Vet can make the "Wilson is a right wing loon" argument.
I'd still bet on Wilson's reelection right now,
but this gives Miller some early, much-needed cash and some guaranteed profile, which will give him a real opportunity.  No doubt, Wilson made his life a lot harder for no good reason.
Let's hope the 35% doesn't get any bigger


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Count me in.

Although I am congenitally opposed to giving money to election contests in states that are not likely to be (1) somewhere near the margins in Presidential elections and (2) north of the Mason-Dixon line, I sent $5 to Miller this morning.  Same as Tinklenberg in'08, it has its own moral imperative apart from political calculation.

Following is the e-mail message I sent to a number of friends.  I encourage Swing State Project readers to respond, as well:

--

Re:  You Lie!

--

Surely you saw rude frat-boy Congressman Joe Wilson shout at President Obama Thursday night.

Wilson diminished both the Congress and the Republic.

Attached are two links.  The first is to a Funny or Die snippet lampooning Wilson.

The second is a link to ActBlue.

I have used ActBlue many, many times and have a very high degree of confidence in it.

I urge you to look at Funny or Die first and share a smile.

Then I encourage you to join Sherry and me in sending $5 (you can send more) to Rob Miller, Wilson's Democratic opponent.

While it doesn't much matter to Sherry and me who is running against this urchin, I do know that Miller pledges to bring "adult representation" to a district "where many lack jobs, healthcare, hope".

Just so you know ... Miller, an Iraq War veteran, is said to be socially conservative.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/po...

http://www.actblue.com/entity/...

SC-02: Miller Edges Heckler Wilson in New Poll | 48 comments

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