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Is Chicago, Is Not Chicago: Redistricting Illinois

by: Johnny Longtorso

Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 8:10 AM EDT


Click to embiggen.

My plan was to eliminate one of the GOP-held districts and shore up the Chicago suburban districts for the Dems as much as possible. In the end, I eliminted Judy Biggert's district. Here's the breakdown:

Johnny Longtorso :: Is Chicago, Is Not Chicago: Redistricting Illinois
IL-01 (dark blue, Bobby Rush - D) - Extends southwest to Will County, but remains majority-black, if only just barely (52%).
IL-02 (dark green, Jesse Jackson Jr. - D) - Same as IL-01, except it takes in more of Will County and is 53% black.
IL-03 (dark purple, Dan Lipinski - D and Judy Biggert - R) - Extends into the DuPage County suburbs, taking in Judy Biggert's home. The population is still centered in Cook County, so Lipinski should be safe, but it's a more appropriate district for his moderate views.
IL-04 (dark red, Luis Gutierrez - D) - Somewhat of a gerrymander still, but much less so than before. I hope Gutierrez doesn't live in the old northern part of the district. 70% Hispanic.
IL-05 (yellow, Michael Quigley - D) - Didn't change this one much. It's only 54% white.
IL-06 (teal, Pete Roskam - R) - Now stretches up from DuPage around to take in some Republican parts of northern Cook and Lake Counties. Probably somewhat more Republican now.
IL-07 (grey, Danny Davis - D) - I had a hell of a time getting three black-majority districts out of Illinois. This one is 52% black. I think we'll be seeing the loss of one of the black-majority districts and gaining another Hispanic-majority district in Illinois either in 2010 or 2020.
IL-08 (light purple, Melissa Bean - D) - Reconfigured the district to drop McHenry and add more of northwestern Cook County. Should be more Democratic.
IL-09 (very light blue, Jan Schakowsky - D) - Pretty unchanged, solidly Dem district.
IL-10 (magenta, Mark Kirk - R) - Pretty much unchanged, so it should still be a Democratic district. If only a Democrat can win it in 2010.
IL-11 (very light green, Will County-based district, Debbie Halvorson - D) - Shrunk this district to just Will and Kendall Counties. Should be easy for Halvorson to hold.
IL-12 (very light purple in the southwest, Jerry Costello - D) - More or less unchanged, added some swing counties in the north of the district and dropped some Republican parts in the southeast.
IL-13 (pink, John Shimkus - R) - Formerly the 19th district, pretty much all Republican territory in the south of the state.
IL-14 (brown, Bill Foster - D) - Replacing the phallic old district, IL-14 now stretches from Foster's home base of Aurora/Batavia, through DuPage and up to Rockford. Should be more Democratic now.
IL-15 (orange, Timothy Johnson - R) - Created a slightly Republican-leaning district that should be competitive in an open seat, but Johnson probably wouldn't break a sweat holding.
IL-16 (light green district in the northwest corner, Don Manzullo - R) - Takes in all the swingy and Republican territory in the northwest, should be safe for Manzullo.
IL-17 (purple district with spidery tendrils, Phil Hare - D) - Still a gerrymander but much less ridiculous; shouldn't change the partisan composition much.
IL-18 (yellow, Aaron Schock - R) - Takes in all the Republican territory in the middle of the state. Safe Republican.
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Is Illinois projected to lose a seat?
According to the 2008 estimates they should be fine:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08


I just looked at those estimates and this is why they're faulty
The Green Papers estimates are merely looking at what the changes would be if the Census occurred today.  Polidata and other sites project out what would happen if trends from 2000-08 continued on into 2010.  

Just for a few other examples, Texas is projected to gain four seats instead of the three he has, Arizona gains two instead of one, Ohio loses two instead of one.  


[ Parent ]
Yes, Polidata is a good source on apportionment estimates
http://www.polidata.org/census...
However IL isn't that terribly far below the 435 cut line: http://www.polidata.org/census... so a small chance they might not lose it...

[ Parent ]
Thank you for this
And for this entire series. They're always fascinating.

According to Polidata Illinois is projected to lose a seat
A Lipinski vs. Biggert matchup would be interesting, with a pro-life Democrat running against a pro-choice Republican.  That almost never happens.  


Biggert will retire
Biggert was supposed to retire in 2008, but was convinced to stay.  

[ Parent ]
She's 72
75 in 2012.  Retirement would make sense.

[ Parent ]
IL-14 Good, I'm hoping Foster won' t
be such a blue dog once he gets a safer Dem district

Comments
1.  Melissa Bean might prefer a less Democratic district to a more Democratic one.  At this point, Bean is not only a Blue Dog but she's openly "mouthy" about it and a primary looks like more of a threat than the general election.

2. A majority Hispanic district could continue to elect a black representative in the near future.  It happens in California.  Voters and population don't neccessarily agree.

3.  Losing Lipinski and Bean and replacing it with one all out liberal would be a net gain.  I don't want an appropriate district for Lipinski.  Instead I'd prefer an appropriate representative.  Having once lived in Chicago, that might not be an easy feat.

4.  Aren't the current districts the result of a Republican gerrymander that fell apart?  


Bean should get a primary challenge
and Lipinski should get a lot of GOP areas (as I think he will be much more difficult to primary than Bean).

Roskam/Biggert can challenge Lipinski in that district, and I could care less who wins.

Put Lipinski in with all of the most GOP areas of DuPage County, and then split up the rest and create a new Democratic district out of it.

Roskam/Biggert can challenge Lipinski in that district, and I could care less


[ Parent ]
As to #4
The 2000 map was a bipartisan incumbent protection gerrymander (the map was split 10-10 beforehand, the state lost a district and Shimkus (R) and David Phelps (D) were drawn into the same district), because there was a Republican State Senate and Democratic State House.

[ Parent ]
Mexicans vs. Pureto Ricans
In California, many Latino residents are non-citizens who, of course, can't vote. In Chicago, Puerto Ricans, who make up a large portion of the Hispanic community, are U.S. citizens and are eligible to vote immediately upon arrival on the mainland.

[ Parent ]
US Census
According to the 2000 US Census, Puerto Ricans make up 10.3% of Illinois Hispanics; Mexicans comprise 74.8%.  Look at the piddling number of votes Luis Guttierez' district generates.  Citizenship, or at least voting, is an issue.

Btw, 64% of US Hispanics are Mexican.  


[ Parent ]
Well, I'm wrong.
I stand corrected. That's what I get for going of anecdotal info rather than researching the facts.

[ Parent ]

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