This is a race

that could use a good, healthy primary.

I think the Obama/Hillary extended primary season shows all the benefits to a primary, and that one even got somewhat ugly.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 17:22:36 PM UTC

Excellent!!!!

Burr makes my skin crawl.

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by: greg91020 @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 17:29:08 PM UTC

I think Cal Cunningham is our best bet

He seems very similar to the profile of Kay Hagan.  

My main issue with Elaine Marshall is that she is 65 years old in 2010.

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by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 17:43:06 PM UTC

So Was John Kerry

last year when he got reelected, and I've heard no one complaining about that. Is it because she's a woman?

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 17:46:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He was running for reelection

with several terms of incumbency.  Marshall would have none.

It is not because she's a woman, and women live longer than men, so I have less of a problem with an older woman than an older man.  I strongly opposed Etheridge's candidacy because he is 67 (among other reasons).

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by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 17:52:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Marshall

isn't exactly a Cal Cunningham, who only served one term and never got reelected to anything else since. She's been SoS for about 13 years, and a state legislator before that. So to say that John Kerry had experience running statewide, while Marshall also had such experience, and to use a different standard with the age thing seems incompatible.

I wonder how people felt when Terry Sanford ran back in 1986? Wasn't he like 69 or something, and he still got elected.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 17:20:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Terry Sanford

I was 15 years old when Terry Sanford was elected as our US Senator.  Age really wasn't a factor at the time.  If anything, his advanced age was readily approved (Jesse Helms, our other Senator at the time, was 65 years old).  Sanford did a lot of good things for the state in his brief tenure as governor.  He was heavily credited for bringing good roads to my state.

Another mitigating factor was that John East had committed suicide in June 1986.  Jim Martin appointed his buddy, Jim Broyhill, to the position.  Back during this time (and to a certain extent today), NC politics has been more controlled by the Eastern part of the State.  Broyhill was from the Western part of NC and he had trouble making in-roads in the rural Eastern part of the state.  Sanford was for the most part loved by the tobacco farmers and the rural people of NC (much more than your average NC Democrat).  Broyhill was a boring politician and was defeated.

Age did catch up with Sanford in 1992.  He had some serious health issues.  Lauch Faircloth actually ran an ad that wished Terry a speedy recovery.  Sanford fired back saying that the ad was nothing more than a political ploy.  So NC ended up electing another old guy as Senator...Faircloth was 64 at the time.

I like Elaine Marshall, and she's a great Secretary of State.  She would make a good US Senator.  I also believe that North Carolinians trust Elaine's ability to make good decisions.  She's far from being a loose cannon.  As far as her age, I don't know if it will be a factor.  It wasn't for Liddy Dole in 2002 (who was 66 years old at the time and had a much older husband pimping viagra on the airwaves).
 

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 17:50:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

New Idea

After watching Cal Cunningham's speech at the state Democratic Party meeting, where he took some really snappy and effective lines at the uselessness of Dick Burr, I thought he really should run and he might be able to beat Burr. However, the fact that he only served one two year term in the state senate gives me pause as to whether he can mount a sucessful statewide campaign. Cal sounded good on YouTube, but can he actually run a good campaign?

Perhaps a better idea is to have Elaine serve out one term, 2011-2017, and that would give time for Cal to run for something else or do something else in NC that garners statewide attention, (like John Edwards did with his Poverty Center in UofNC) and then run for the Senate. After all, this is the cursed seat of Sam Erwin, where no incumbent serves more than one term...

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 18:53:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What does gender have to do with anything?

I'm also leaning towards Cunningham because I think he is much more charismatic and has a natural appeal to voters.  

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by: TheGame08 @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 18:24:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think I was too polite

to DTMB for accusing me of being a sexist.

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by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 19:14:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He has been out of the loop for too long, IMO.

Served one term in the state senate from 2001-2003, was in the military as well. Interesting experiences, but not the best when you consider what he is running for. In NC politics, relevant experience of some kind is generally a big factor in statewide campaigns, it definitely was in all races in 2008 (although John Edwards is a rare exception). For example, in a lot of states, wealthy businessmen can run for statewide office and have relative success, but this is not usually true in NC.

It will be important to paint Burr as a Washington outsider, but the person doing so should have strong state-level experience to compete with the 15 years Burr has spent in Congress. This is like the strategy that Kay Hagan used, portraying herself as an effective state senator while showing Dole as an out-of-touch backbencher.

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by: possumtracker1991 @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 19:31:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's the cursed seat

Age doesn't matter since she'll only get one term before the ghost of Sam Ervin strikes her down too.

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by: Crisitunity @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 18:13:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

agreed

Marshall hasn't really made a name for herself (a lot of people don't know who she is), despite the fact that she's run statewide several times.  I like Cunningham a lot, and the more people get to know him, the more they like him.  I think he's our best shot.

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by: bennytoothpick @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 19:34:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eh, she has two good terms in her then

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by: DTOzone @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 22:25:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, Yes, Yes!!!

Elaine will be an awesome candidate against Burr and this race just got extremely competitive. She will win the primary, I know that a lot of Democrats were waiting for her to enter the race and they will now support her. She has been elected statewide four times now (56% in 2008!) and she is very well connected with Democrats across the state. Voters like her and Burr is going to have a tough race ahead of him. I think he is now the most endangered GOP incumbent in the country, even more than Vitter.

In terms of the primary, Elaine should win easily enough because she is well-liked among NC Democrats. Lewis and Cunningham may be fresh faces, but they are unknown and lack the same gravitas that Elaine has. I don't expect Wicker or Etheridge to run now that she is in. Should be no problem for her getting through the primary without a really tough time.

Some people have raised concerns about fundraising based on the last time, but the reason she had trouble then was because the NCGOP kept suing over redistricting and the primary had to be moved up several times, which is why people were waiting for Bowles to get in so they could donate to him. She will get DSCC support early on and should be fine this time.

Also, interesting fact: If Elaine does win next year, NC will become the first Southern state to have two female Senators serving at the same time.

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by: possumtracker1991 @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 19:24:40 PM UTC

NC

Marshall is our best bet, but I get the feeling Burr will win just because hes not a Democrat.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 21:24:19 PM UTC

Marshall will probably beat Burr

He is a do nothing senator and we all saw how North Carolina responded to another do nothing senator last November. In addition, this seat always switches parties. Bye Bye Burr.

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by: jmartin4s @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 21:57:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Great news

I think Marshall would make a very strong candidate. I'm not too concerned about fundraising because her 2002 bid was stifled by outside factors, as the wonderfully-named Possum Tracker laid out in his post.

With her in, I doubt Etheridge or Wicker will run, but Cunningham might. I'd be fine with a primary so long as it stays clean.

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by: corran horn @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 23:34:05 PM UTC

Elaine's not a bad choice

I'll probably vote for Elaine in the primary in 2010 if Cal Cunningham doesn't run.  I like her a lot.  She's a hell of a lot better than Dennis "if I become governor of NC there will be no more hog lagoons!" Wicker.  Bob Etheridge is not a bad pick either, although he can be a tad conservative on occasion.  

Don't give up on Cal Cunningham.  He's a candidate that can catch on fire in NC.  People can relate to him better than most candidates.  If he chooses to run, he has a good shot of winning the race.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 01:42:33 AM UTC

I think...

If the economy and overall political environment is improved for Dems by this time next year, Marshall will win this race pretty easily, at a Kay Hagan-type margin. I am much more optimistic on this race then, say, Kentucky.

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by: greg91020 @ Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 14:24:19 PM UTC