Fallin's seat

Atty Gen. Edmondsen's gotta be the better option, but I'm doubtful he'd be able to pull it out. But actually, Fallin's seat in Congress is probably the single most capture-able in the state, if we have a solid candidate.

I'd offer Jim Roth as the best option. He lost a statewide race (to the OK Corporation Commission) after being appointed to the position, but only narrowly, 52-48, and he actually won the district in question. Previously he was a two-term Oklahoma County (where OK City is) Commissioner (re-elected with 63%). And being openly gay may actually help him in terms of turning out the Democratic base in a non-presidential year.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

---

by: arealmlc @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 06:28:20 AM UTC

Question

is Mr. Edmondson term-limited?

for I feel it would be better if he ran for re-election

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

---

by: lordpet8 @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 08:10:37 AM UTC

Nope

There are no term limits for statewide offices other than the Governor, although there's a proposed ballot measure for 2010 that would enact them.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 11:53:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK

2010 is going to be real ugly for us in OK.

29/D/Male/NY-01

---

by: Tekzilla @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 12:52:23 PM UTC

I concur

I believed that 2010 would be a challenge even before this poll was released.  Oklahoma is one of the states that has become somewhat hostile towards the Democratic brand.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 13:00:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Governor's are going to be bad

but state's like California, Nevada, Rhode Island, Vermont, an Hawaii, and Minnesota should help ease the losses.

Florida is looking bad for a pick up unfortunately, and Pennsylvania is looking tough, as is Ohio, Colorado are too, despite fairly successful Governors. Michigan is rough, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Kansas are lost.

Perhaps the only smart move was putting Jan Brewer as governor, and implicitly hitting her with the anti-incumbent spell nationwide and her governing is already causing some schisms in the Republican party and she looks like she'll definitely have to face a competitive primary.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 14:28:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL not lost yet

That race is still close, and there's still time to put it in our column.

You're exactly right on the others.

---

by: corran horn @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 14:48:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's so premature to even say FL is looking bad.

Numbers like 43-34 with a huge name recognition disparity really don't say very much to me, other than that the election is over a year away.  Sink is a very good candidate for Florida.  She is a culturally Southern Democrat who is relatively progressive.  She will get votes from the Southern Dems in North Florida.  If she picks Manny Diaz as her running mate, who will bolster Dem-heavy South Florida, she will be in good shape.

McCollum is a conservative idealogue who has lost statewide several times.  He is not the sort of candidate who typically wins in the big-time Florida races.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 17:05:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indeed

There is an argument he should be doing better than 43% and besides other polls show it closer. Too many undecideds at the moment.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 17:12:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You forgot Wyoming in the 'lost' column : (

Male, 23, DC-At Large

---

by: JFM110 @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 15:27:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

term limits overthorwn?

Freudenthal/

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Sep 04, 2009 at 03:32:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There will be a lot of pickups on both sides for Gov.

The body of your message does not even support your subject line.  You rattle off six races that look good for the Dems, plus Arizona where you cite a strategic advantage, and eight races that look good for the Republicans.  A loss of one governorship would be pretty good in this environment, given the Dem advantage.

Kansas is gonzo.

Wyoming is gone unless Freudenthal sues, which I highly doubt.

Oklahoma polls do look tough, and not just this one.  

I have seen nothing to suggest Tennessee is "lost" except the intuition of some that Dems are dead meat in the South.  

In Colorado, I really have to question your characterization of Ritter as "successful."  In any event, he is vulnerable.

I have seen nothing to suggest that MI, PA, and FL are anything but tossups way too early to call.

Ohio I'm pretty sure Strickland will pull through.  John Kasich is a wingnut.  He's not for Ohio these days.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 17:20:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2002 redux

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

20 governor's mansions switched parties that year. I think we're headed for another 2002.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 22:39:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kasich has other problems

It turns out that after nearly two decades out of the spotlight, the man no longer remembers how to raise money.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 23:39:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The AZ situation is a bit different

Having Napolitano as Governor was not going to hurt us very much, because Napolitano was term-limited and our candidate was always going to be Terry Goddard.  Goddard is extremely popular in his own right and, while he and Napolitano have cordial relations, they're not particularly linked in the public mind.  Goddard nearly ran against Napolitano in 2002.

What has changed is that Brewer's elevation to the governorship has knocked out of contention a lot of potentially stronger Republicans who were planning on running.  Tom Horne has been planning to run for ages, but is now running for Attorney General instead.  Dean Martin was extremely interested in running, but will now probably run for reelection.  Ken Bennett is making noises about running, but is unlikely to challenge the woman who appointed him to the job he has now.  John Shadegg was talking openly about running as recently as last year, but will now probably run for reelection.  J.D. Hayworth, who was never likely to run, is even more unlikely to run now against a sitting Governor.  Joe Arpaio is probably done thinking of running for statewide office, and won't challenge a sitting Governor.

The one candidate who probably isn't deterred is Jeff Flake, who could wipe the floor with Brewer (and, sadly, probably also with Goddard).  But even Flake is probably less likely to go mano-a-mano against Brewer than he would have been to enter a giant primary against a bunch of no-name statewide officials.

The upshot is that Brewer's elevation hasn't so much saved the Democratic brand in the state as it has likely weakened the candidate Goddard will have to face.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 23:46:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mercifully

The worst wipe-out we could possibly see at the federal level is the loss of one House seat, and for better or worse, I'd venture to say Dan Boren's voting record (along with his last name) has pretty well inoculated him from the wrath of Oklahoma's conservative electorate. Plus, eastern OK still has a pretty strong Democratic tradition at the local level.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

---

by: JFM110 @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 14:14:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boren

will win by 25 or more.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 17:22:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]