12:10 AM: All 176 of 176 precincts are reporting; John Garamendi and David Harmer advance to the general. The final tally is Garamendi at 26%, Harmer at 21%, DeSaulnier at 18%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 8%.
11:40 PM: I think Representative Garamendi can start picking out his color of swearing-in tie. I did some more quick addition, adding up the percentage of all Dems and all Republicans. Democrats got 64% of the vote, Republicans 34%. That's remarkably similar to the 2008 vote, where Obama got 65% and McCain got 33%. If there's a wave of national discontent with Democrats, or a big shift in the electorate's composition or levels of enthusiasm between the parties, we aren't seeing it here in the 10th tonight.
11:30 PM: I did my own round of addition again, as the counties are far outpacing the SoS. Based on the four counties, we're up to 139 of 176 (82%) reporting, with Garamendi at 26%, Harmer at 20%, DeSaulnier at 17%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 8%. 20 precincts are outstanding in Contra Costa, and 17 are left in Solano.
11:05 PM: While we wait for more updates, don't forget there was also a special election in the basically safe seat of AD 51 in Los Angeles. With 100% in, it looks like we'll be avoiding a general, as Democrat Steven Bradford broke 50%. He got 53%, to 19% for fellow Dem Gloria Gray and 17% for GOPer David Coffin.
10:55 PM: The SoS office is finally getting into the act. Their numbers are a pretty close match to ours: Garamendi at 27%, Harmer and DeSaulnier at 19%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 7%. Remember, though, that these are California rules, so even if DeSaulnier somehow edged out Harmer in the all-party primary, Harmer still goes to the general because the top D and R advance.
10:30 PM: I broke out the ol' abacus, so now we can have some districtwide totals (despite the SoS still not having any info). With 102 of 170 (60%) reporting, including another Contra Costa batch, Garamendi and Harmer are well in control. Garamendi has 22,345 (27%), Harmer at 16,064 (19%), DeSaulnier at 13,827 (17%), Buchanan at 9,955 (12%), and Woods at 6,870 (8%).
10:20 PM: Now we have Contra Costa and Alameda with some details. In Contra Costa, 28 of 97 are reporting. Garamendi leads at 14,459 (26%), followed by DeSaulnier not far behind (here's where his Senate district is) at 11,743 (21%), then Harmer at 10,589 (19%) and Buchanan at 6,540 (12%). In Alameda, with 22 of 34 reporting, Garamendi leads at 2,423 (32%), Harmer at 1,565 (21%), and Buchanan at 1,060 (14%). (Use the KCBS site. Still nothing happening at the SoS office.)
10:15 PM (Crisitunity): Well, things are starting to happen. Solano County is half in (23 of 40), and Garamendi leads with 4,573 votes, 29%. Harmer is 2nd with 2,912: 19%, followed by Woods with 2,383 (15%) and Buchanan at 1,921 (12%). All of Sacramento County has reported but it's only a sliver of the district (5 precincts out of 176 total). Garamendi dominated, winning 51% (with only 179 votes?!?).
Since Gov. Schwarzenegger has ordered the results held for the 10th District special election until 10pm Pacific (1am Eastern), it looks like us open seats fans will be burning the midnight oil tonight. But that does give you a bit of extra time to squeeze in a last-minute prediction...
RESULTS: CA SoS | KCBS |
