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CA-10, IA-HD90: Special Elections Tonight

by: James L.

Tue Sep 01, 2009 at 8:12 AM EDT


Just a quick reminder to all of our readers that two competitive special elections will be held tonight. In California's 10th CD, multiple candidates from all parties will face off for the right to succeed Ellen Tauscher in the House. While Tauscher's seat has a D+11 PVI, the NRCC has signaled some interest in the race, lifting attorney David Harmer to "On The Radar" status in its recently-relaunched "Young Guns" program -- so it'll be interesting to see how big of a share the GOP vote is tomorrow. Recent polling suggests that Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) and Harmer are the favorites to advance to the next round of voting, so other Democrats, like state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, will have to hope for a lopsided turnout effort in order to grab an upset.

Further down the ballot and a couple time zones away, there will also be an open state House seat up for grabs. It's another Dem-held seat, with the vacancy created when Tom Vilsack tapped farmer and sitting Rep. John Whitaker to head the Farm Service Agency in Iowa. Democrats hold a plurality of the district's voters in terms of registration, but the GOP is hoping to entice enough conservative Democrats over to their side -- aided in part by a massive effort by the National Organization for Marriage to paint the election as a referendum on same-sex marriage. The Iowa Independent and Governing.com's Ballot Box both have comprehensive summaries of the race, and the indefatigable desmoinesdem of Bleeding Heartland fame has all the latest dope on the race here and here.

As usual, we'll have results links for you to follow as polls close, and will post occasional updates on the latest score as the votes are counted.

James L. :: CA-10, IA-HD90: Special Elections Tonight
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CA-10 prediction:
Garamendi - 31%
Harmer - 25%
DeSaulnier - 19%
Buchanan - 11%
Woods - 8%
Other - 6%

when do the polls close for these races?


California closes at 8:00 PDT (11:00 EDT)


[ Parent ]
No results until 10:00 PDT
Schwarzenegger has told the registrars' offices to hold the results until 10:00. Special arrangements have been made so that firefighters who live in CA-10 but are on the lines elsewhere in the state will be able to vote until 10:00.

Until they've voted, no results.


[ Parent ]
IA closes at 9 pm CDT (10 EDT)
With turnout likely to be low, it shouldn't take them long to release the results.

If the early returns show Democrat Curt Hanson with a big lead, it probably means they counted the absentee ballots first. Democrats had an advantage in terms of absentee ballots requested (now we just have to hope a lot of those weren't conservative Dems against gay marriage).


[ Parent ]
CA-10
Garamendi - 34%
Harmer - 24%
DeSaulnier - 18%
Buchanan - 10%
Woods - 10%
Other - 4%

29/D/Male/NY-01

What happens to the Lt. Gov
position when Garamendi wins?  Does Ahnuld appoint a replacement, or does the Senate President just fill in for the next year or so?

Arnold appoints a replacement.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Isn't CA Lt Gov a fairly worthless job?


[ Parent ]
Appointed Lt Guv
   While Ahhnold would appoint a replacement Lt Guv, it would be subject of the approval of the (almost 2/3 Democratic) State Senate. Either we get a placeholder type or else there could be a stalemate and it stays vacant. I don't think the Senate would vote for someone who is a GOP candidate in the regular 2010 race for LG.

  While the job of the LG is primarily to check the Gov for a pulse (and be a successor in the absence of same), he or she also is a member of various boards and commissions including the University of CA Regents and the State Lands Commission.

  Another consideration for the the voters of CA-10 is that if either Buchanan or De Saulnier is elected there would be a vacant seat in the Lege, which would have to be filled by special election. Buchanan's Assembly seat is a swing district so there is a danger of losing it to the GOP in a low turnout special election.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
That's pretty extreme
I can't imagine the legislature objecting to any of the Republican candidates for Gov or Lt Gov.  That would be too pathetic for words.

[ Parent ]

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