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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Aug 28, 2009 at 6:39 PM EDT


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 140 comments
RIP
RIP Senator Ted Kennedy!!!  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
MA-Sen
What does everyone think about Curt Schilling running? I know Republican's will most likely lose this, but who do ya'll think is stronger, Schilling or Healey?  
Curt Schilling
As much as people from Massachusetts love the Soxs they dont love them that much to elect a conservative to the Senate. Especially the seat that Uncle teddy held.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
5 reasons Curt Schilling should run
Not sure about that!

People in MA really love the Red Sox.

Read the 5 reasons Curt Schilling should run:
http://www.associatedcontent.c...

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[ Parent ]
Schilling
I just dont think that the people of Massachusetts would replace an icon w/ almost 5 decades of service to Mass w/ a popular baseball player. Especially one who is a conservative Republican. And having shoulder pains doesnt give you experience w/ health care more than me shopping and being an expert on capitalism.    

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
My thoughts exactly :)

[ Parent ]
I don't think the people of Massachusetts are idiots
Schilling would be far to the right of the electorate and I'm pretty sure they know that.  
[ Parent ]
I do.
But where voting behavior is concerned, the people of Massachusetts at large are only idiots about their governors, and less so now than in the years between Weld and Romney. Outside of the muscle-headed Umass fratboy demographic (which is beyond hope in any state), nobody would vote for a troglodyte like Schillig for Senate just because he pitched for the Sox, and especially not to the seat vacated by a beloved larger-than-life liberal like Ted Kennedy. This isn't Kentucky.  
[ Parent ]
Was Weld so bad?
And if so, how so? My impression from New York is that he wasn't too bad, but I don't know all that much about his governorship.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
This is his best opportunity
He's got a lot of money and would probably be able to raise a good bit of money, so that wouldn't be an issue. A 5 month campaign most of which he'll likely be unscathed because of a dem primary. If turnout for the election is low, I can envision a scenario where he pulls it off.
[ Parent ]
Schilling
Massachusetts is used to electing liberal Republicans to the Governor Mansion but not to the Senate. I just cant conceive of a way that he pulls it off. Even in a 94 model Massachusetts is still the most liberal state in the Union.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Not so much liberal
But Democratic. And I think Rhode Island and Vermont have probably overtaken now. Does anybody think Joe II is running because much of the tv speculation today is that he might be. He would likely clear the field yes?
[ Parent ]
So,
Who does everyone think would be a stronger Rep? Kerry Healey or Curt Schilling, or one of the others mentioned?  
[ Parent ]
I think in this case
Repubs would be better off taking a flyer on something crazy like Schilling or Mo Vaughn.  I don't know Vaughn's politics, but I do know he likes strippers, steroids, and drunk driving.  And he is a dead ringer for American Idol winner Ruben Studdard, so that could score him a few extra votes.

Healy will get beat down regardless, so it's not even worth it to run her.  At least make it amusing.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Meehan
I can't imagine Marty Meehan backing out.  He spent a lifetime raising money for this and he feels entitled.  When Marty left a few years ago, he had $5 million in the bank; now it's $4.8 million.  Joe looks like he's gone through the wringer.  He has more scandals than Ted and might not hold up under pressure.

My guess is that Marty would run and Marty will play very dirty. Anybody who was essentially unopposed, angling for another job, and already had $4 million in his campaign kitty who raised another million wants it bad.

[ Parent ]
I'm not saying I think it'll happen
Or that it's even likely. But if there's one scenario where he could pull it off, it would have a lot of the factors that are present here.
[ Parent ]
Maybe Lynn Swann can be a campaign advisor

[ Parent ]
Schilling in 2004 would have had a better chance.
The guy was a hero who pitched the Sox to their first title in four generations on a bad heel.  Five years and another championship have passed.  Any luster he had has been worn down by time alone.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
I think the seat will go to a Democrat either if Deval gets the law changed so that he can elect someone in the interim or we have to wait till January 19,2010 for the special election. The people of Mass. loved Senator Kennedy too much to let the chair go to someone that wouldn't carry on his legacy.
[ Parent ]
Ohio SoS
Most important "down ticket" race in the Republic.

Period.

Hard to disagree with that
Though I'd also like to hear more about some other key SoS races.
[ Parent ]
agree!
Ohio SoS could decided the OH redistricting!

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[ Parent ]
And the presidential election.
[ Parent ]
In a perfect world, it wouldn't.
A perfect world being one where Secretaries of State, you know, obeyed the law...
[ Parent ]
Not even all Secretaries of State.
There are plenty of SoSes who DO obey the law. They're not not SoS of states that matter in the electoral college.  
[ Parent ]
To quote Lord Acton
"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely."
[ Parent ]
Retirement Flips?
I'm just curious how many Democratic held house and/or senate seats will be automatic or very, very likely flips once the current incumbent retires.  A few come to mind immediately, like MS-04 or LA-03.  What do you guys think?
MS-04
Will be very tough to hold, it is an extremely Republican district even on the local level. LA-03 on the other hand is definitely winnable as there as a pretty deep bench of local Democratic office holders and the district went for Landrieu in 2008.

I would add to that list TX-17, Chet Edwards' district, it's still pretty Republican and I don't think there are any Dem. state legislators except for one state rep. from Waco.

Also, whenever Pomeroy, Conrad, or Dorgan retires, John Hoeven will run and most likely win any of those seats.

[ Parent ]
agreed
as the 4th is the most Republican in the state, so much that Gene Taylor actually lost it when he first ran for it. But when the Republican incumbent died in a plane crash he ran again in triumphed and held the seat with ease.

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
[ Parent ]
I think my eyes are getting better.
Instead of a big, dark blur, I see a big light blur.
There's nothing to see,
except for the expired New Jersey plate on that sand skiff...
[ Parent ]
+1

[ Parent ]
KS-02 Lynn "Great White Dope" Jenkins
I'm interested in the wake of her comments if KS Dems can get it together enough to find a credible challenger, especially since she's a freshman. The strongest contenders would probably be the State Senators from Topeka, the biggest population center of the district--Anthony Hensley or Laura Kelly. Neither of whom would have to give up their seats to make a challenge. Hensley may be going for Governor, though...if so, Kelly should challenge Jenkins.

I'm also interested to see if Kansans are as tolerant of orange Republicans as John Boehner's constituents are...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Jenkins wouldn't even be a congressman if
Nancy Boyda had accepted help from the DSCC.
[ Parent ]
she still isn't a Congressman
   
  The only female Representative who called herself a Congressman (that I am aware of) was the legendary crazylady  rightwing nutjob Rep. Helen Chenoweth of Idaho. For you who are newer to following congressional politics, she was sort of Michele Bachmann before there was a Bachmann. Of course as a Westerner she was real heavy on the anti-environmentalism. She was quite a gal...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
She also was a major Clinton/Monica witchunter but had previously had an affair herself


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that was my Helen
   She died in an autocrash a few years ago, possibly because she wasn't wearing a seatbelt. Wanted the freedom to not have to wear one of those liberal contraptions...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Whoa, Wait A Minute
A female politician having an affair? I've never heard of that in my life!
[ Parent ]
Loretta Sanchez
was under scrutiny for an affair with a married lobbyist.  I don't know what became of it.

Equal opportunity.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Marsha Blackburn
also calls herself Congressman, I don't really understand why...
[ Parent ]
wow, i just looked at her wikipedia
it's hard to believe that someone so crazy could have so much power
During her tenure, she was referred to by her most outspoken critics as a "poster-child for the militias," and in February 1995 she voiced the suspicion that armed federal agents were landing black helicopters on Idaho ranchers' property to enforce the Endangered Species Act, in line with a conspiracy theory popular in far-right circles. "I have never seen them," Chenoweth said in an interview in The New York Times. "But enough people in my district have become concerned that I can't just ignore it. We do have some proof."[3] The Los Angeles Times editorialized that during the campaign she gained national attention by "holding 'endangered salmon bakes' during fundraisers, serving canned salmon to ridicule the listing of Idaho salmon as an endangered species." She was quoted as saying in response, "It's the white, Anglo-Saxon male that's endangered today."[4]

[ Parent ]
She was crazy before crazy was cool!!
Google Steve Stockman, Andrea Seastrand, Randy Tate, and Enid (Waldholtz) Greene for four more assorted nut-jobs who defeated incumbents in 1994 (but all these, I believe, were bounced two years later).  As they say, "high tide brings in a lot of driftwood!"
[ Parent ]
very true
and some more highlights...

from the washington post obituary:

In turn, she scolded Congress after the Oklahoma City federal building bombing for not trying to understand anti-government activists. She also held hearings on "black helicopters," which militia members believed were filled with United Nations-sponsored storm troopers eager to swoop into the broken-down ranches of the rural West and impose international law. The helicopters were piloted by state wildlife officers patrolling for poachers, National Guardsmen looking for marijuana farms or military aircraft from nearby bases on training missions.

and a 1996 ny times article:

Mrs. Chenoweth, a soft-spoken former political aide to then-Representative Steve Symms and a natural resources consultant, says the sheriffs' bill, like most of her issues, is driven by her belief in state's rights. She favors the Old Confederacy, she said, and not just because her great-grandfather fought on the side of the Rebels. Though she is not in favor of slavery, she views the South's position on the Civil War as "a state's rights issue," she said in an interview.


[ Parent ]
I remember those guys!
Well, I remember reading about them. If anyone's interested, there's a really cool book about the 1994 bunch called THE FRESHMEN by Linda Killian. It's amazing how many nuts came in that year: Bob Barr, Joe Scarborough, Wes Cooley, JD Hayworth, Sam Brownback, Linda Smith. Yeesh, talk about a rogues gallery.

Stockman was beaten by Nick Lampson.

Andrea Seastrand was beaten by Michael Capps (Lois' husband).

Randy Tate ("the Christian Kid") was beaten by Adam Smith.

Enid Greene's story is too bizarre and complex for me to catalogue, but it's worth a read.

[ Parent ]
Too bad that was before SSP's time
Think of the fun we would have had with some of these folks!  I'm old enough to remember 1994, and it really is amazing how things have changed since then.  For example, FIVE (count them, five!) Democratic incumbent members of Congress lost their seats in Washington State alone, almost all of them to Christian Right nutjobs (Tate and Smith especially).  But since then, we've retaken four of those seats (or the general areas the distrits now represent) -- the old Tom Foley seat is the only one that's still Republican.
[ Parent ]
C'mon lay off the lady!
Who doesnt love salmon? =)
[ Parent ]
I don't believe that
The voters knew what they were doing. No DCCC commercial could change enough minds. She just had the misfortune of being up for her first reelection in a presidential year in a very conservative district.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
I agree with you
The real reason why she lost is that she was running against someone perceived as a mainstream conservative, not an insane maniac. It's often been mentioned that in Kansas, there's a split between the mainstream conservatives and the nuts, and that when the Republicans nominate a real nut, enough of the mainstream conservatives may vote for a Democrat (especially one perceived as moderate) for him/her to win.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Definitely agree
If a Dem can convince enough moderate Republicans that Jenkins is a nutjob masquerading as a moderate, the district isn't conservative enough for her to hold. Even if a Dem can't quite beat her in 2010, it'd be worth it to keep her on her toes for redistricting in 2012, when the rest of (liberal) Lawrence likely goes into her district and it gets swingier.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
CA-Gov
With that recent poll that showed the Brown is doing better then Newsome in his own town, and that Brown is out raising him, I'm quite confident to call this race for Brown right now. Thoughts?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
I would call this premature
I agree that things are going Brown's way now, but there's still a lot of time before the primary--and most Californians don't really know Newsom apart from the non-stop, brutal lampooning the nice folks from Proposition 8 gave him on TV. He's younger and better-looking than Brown, not as bright, with roughly the same politics. I'd bet on Brown today, and would probably vote for him myself. But we don't yet know what Newsom, and his campaign, are made of.

I think it's too early to call this race. Let's just be cautious and say it's leaning to Brown.

[ Parent ]
Maybe Newsom will bail
Like Garamendi and Villaraigosa did.
[ Parent ]
I'd prefer to have a choice in the primary
Given the original choices of Garamendi, Newsom, Brown, and Villaraigosa, I think I would've picked Garamendi, but if my choices are Jerry Brown, Jerry Brown, Jerry Brown, and Jerry Brown ... well, I won't put a whole lot of effort into volunteering for CA-Gov as I might for another state's important race.
[ Parent ]
Newsom
Having an affair with the wife of your campaign manager and friend = Douchebag

(BTW I also like UrbanDictionary's definition as well: Someone who has surpassed the levels of jerk and asshole, however not yet reached fucker or motherfucker.)

[ Parent ]
Newsom = 0% chance, but not called for Brown
Newsom never had any chance of winning.  Brown's only obstacle now is someone, anyone, who is not a hack to run.

Brown could lose to somebody not on the radar like Mike Thompson or Brad Sherman (who probably have not even given one seconds thought to running).  Brown excites no one.  It would be great is some telegenic non-butthead would run, but there is not sign of that.  

[ Parent ]
I wish we could clone Henry Waxman.
Waxman would fuck this state up.  In a good way!

George Miller would be nice.

I begged for Loretta Sanchez for a while, but apparently she's not as amazing as I hoped.

I don't really know the SoCal delegation very well.

How would folks here vote in a Brown vs Newsom vs Westly race?  Westly is occasionally rumored to be interested this cycle.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Westly is worse than Newsom
Westly has no further career in politics.  He ran the worst campaign in California since god knows when, since John C. Fremont maybe.

He couldn't beat Angelides, who was utterly pitiful.

[ Parent ]
Would
it be okay if I post a diary here on my views on the California governor's race. I do live in the state and within a 20 minute drive of San Francisco. Or is that suited for DKos?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Probably DKos
But make sure you put a link back up here if you do it.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I did a post the MN-gubernatorial race
Where I got to see all the speakers speak and essentially gave my judgement of their 5-minute stump speech and some info on them and such.

Populista posted a diary about the Draft Rybak movement, which to me is essentially a ra-ra diary for Rybak as clearly Rybak is in the race and the Draft Rybak movement is pretty unnecessary and is probably manufactured to raise his profile (let me know if Im wrong Populista but it's hard not to view it that way)

Id say post whatever and James, DavidNYC and Crisitunity will probably let you know if that type of diary isnt pertinent to SSP.  But Id venture a guess as long as it isnt like a, Brown sucks for all of these reasons and you should vote for Newsom because he's awesome, you're probably in the clear.

[ Parent ]
Heck
I'll even go as far as to say the Draft Rybak movement is really a way for Rybak to campaign for Gov while still having to run for Mayor, basing that off of Populista at the State Fair signing up supporters.  That's exactly what candidates do at the State Fair.  

I like this approach much more so than Coleman's, which is to hire some of the best political talent for his mayoral race.  The Draft Rybak stuff is tacky but at least has grassroots elements, Coleman is just staffing up.

[ Parent ]
We are not associated with the mayor
we do not coordinate. If we did we'd be in pretty serious violation of campaign finance law. No manufacturing here, if I had my way he would have skipped re-election and run directly for governor, I've been a Draft Rybak guy since 2007. And as of a week ago we didn't even have a booth.

Really, I'd love it if we we're a well funded front group of the mayor, but that's not reality and it would be very illegal. We're a broke grassroots group that's spent all of our money on the fair. Come say hi sometime, one of your fellow St Thomas people was volunteering with me the other day, said you have some big plans. It kind of baffles me that we're the only one other than Seifert with their own booth. We we're able to scrap together just enough money to get the booth up but are still going to all lose money, how can Entenza not have enough money to do a booth at the fair?

[ Parent ]
Oh good
Thanks for the reassurance, :)

Who was volunteering with ya?  Cole?

[ Parent ]
Nope
Kristen.
[ Parent ]
I was a Newsom person
then I realized how much time he is campaigning rather then being a mayor in his own city.  I will be voting for brown.

On the republican side, I hope that Meg Whitman wins the primary, so that Brown will crush her in the general.  After wrecking Ebay, who would want her to wreck and already wrecked state?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
??
How did she wreck ebay? Ebay grew tremendously under her
[ Parent ]
Yes, eBay did grow tremendously when Meg was CEO
but as long-time eBay worker Henry Blodget article puts it, eBay was an example of "if ever there was a business that mostly grew itself". eBay would have grown rapidly regardless of who was company head.

Here are the points Blodget makes about the decisions Meg oversaw:

- Nothing to help move the perception of eBay as a site for more than auctions, thereby limiting its market appeal.

- Not focusing on the core site interface, which looks very similar to how it looked a decade ago.

- The disappointment known as Skype, which never helped to enhance eBay and only ended up distracting eBay from its core business.

- Doing nothing to try to team with or bring down Amazon, which has now become the online buyer's "gold standard".

Here is a quote from an investor mentioned in the article:

eBay's a good company and a cheap stock, so I always find myself wanting to own it. Then I go out there and meet with Meg and it's all I can do to avoid shorting it as I walk out the door.

eBay's stock has improved this year, though the lesson I, who plans to buy some stocks soon and do my homework on them very carefully, take away from this quote is to beware of stocks that have become "cheap". Unless the company has a reasonable explanation for the drop in stock price and has a plan to turn things around, avoid it.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
She also completely bungled the PayPal acquisition...
Even though the synergies there were pretty obvious, and it should have been a pretty easy acquisition.

Although if she shares a ballot with that dipsh*t Carly Fiorina, she may look like a Jack Welch in comparison. Talking about running a company into the ground, Carly somehow managed to screw up HP royally. They are finally getting back on track.

[ Parent ]
Im pretty sure Carly Fiorina is going to stick to the senate race
Not like she even has a snowballs chance in hell though.  The is going to lose horribly if she runs for the senate seat or the governor's seat.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
MN-Gov: Drafting RT Rybak
Already been at the Minnesota State Fair for double digit hours. Lots of excitement for Rybak running for governor, signing up lots of suporters.  
Rybak vs. Bachmann?
Even in a moderately Republican year, it's hard to see us not picking up that race with that combination of candidates, though the MIP will make things difficult, as they always do.  
[ Parent ]
It's become the DFL motivator
the idea that Bachmann or Coleman will run. But honestly I would be shocked if either of them do. I'm betting Seifert wins their nod and I'm maybe even more confident about that matchup.  
[ Parent ]
Coleman would have to be an idiot to run
after what he's tried to pull. He was never that popular to begin with, and I don't think MN voters are going to quickly forget that he kept the state from having complete representation in the Senate for over half a year.

Bachmann IS an idiot, so you never know. She's already proven that she'll do whatever floats her delusional boat, and to hell with anyone else.

Palin/Bachmann '12?

 

[ Parent ]
Ack!
Such a combination of craziness could rip a hole in the fabric of time and space.
[ Parent ]
It'd also be really sad
if the first entirely female presidential ticket in US history were such terrible representatives of their gender as a whole.  
[ Parent ]
A governor who resigned
and a representative who lost a gubernatorial race?

Who knows, I guess. I'd sure be happy if Bachmann ran. Great motivation!

[ Parent ]
Or even better
Palin/Perry 2012! A governor who resigned and a governor who advocated secession!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
That's a little too much secession on one ticket
given Palin's ties to the AIP.

Why not just run as the "We Hate America" Party?

Oh, wait. Republicans. Nevermind.  

[ Parent ]
CA-10 Poll
Garmendi, Harmer lead.
Garmendi- 25%
Harmer-20%
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...
Anthony Woods is performing pretty well
Due respect
A Republican isn't going to win this district.  
[ Parent ]
Unless
The Dem's take for granted that they have this and don't vote. Remember, the Republican base is very energized right now. Thats the only reason Harmer is showing so well, but I still think that we can start calling Garmendi congressman elect
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't read it quite that way
I know that Republicans want to think of themselves as "energized" rather than racing for the lunatic fringe, but the facts don't bear that interpretation out in this instance. The four Republicans together poll 30%. The four Democrats together poll 62%. The Democrats are doing fine.

Anyway, we basically agree that the Democrat will be elected.

[ Parent ]
Garamendi
Once he entered this race, it was over for the other Dems.
[ Parent ]
Who becomes new LT GOV?
Who becomes new LT Gov if Garamendi wins?

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[ Parent ]
Appointment
I think I read here that Arnold would have to make an appointment, I guess it would be someone who is running for it next year, so that they can be the incumbent
[ Parent ]
I think Schwarzenegger would make an appointment...
I think the governor appoints a lieutenant governor, similar to how the President of the U.S. appoints a vice president if his VP resigns.

This happened in 1974, when Lt. Gov. Edwin Reinecke resigned after losing the gubernatorial primary. Then-Gov. Ronald Reagan appointed John L. Harmer to the lieutenant governorship for the remainder of his term.

Since the California Constitution has been in place since 1879, I'm assuming the way it was in 1974 is the way it is today in this regard.

[ Parent ]
Who would Arnold pick?
Who would Arnold pick for Lt Gov? Would be pick a placeholder or Republican running currently running for Lt Gov? Would be pick Meg Whitman who could use the post as a springboard as she runs for Govenor?

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[ Parent ]
Possibly appoint the Republican running for LG
State Sen. Jeff Denham, but that would open up his district that could easily flip to the Democrats. Also, I doubt anyone running in California wants to be linked to Schwarzenegger in any way at this point.
[ Parent ]
Abel Maldonado
He is not that well-liked by the rest of the caucus anyway after February's budget kerfluffle and Arnold can appoint him to give a big FU to them, especially if a Democrat wins Maldonado's State Senate district, which is probably more likely to flip than Denham's anyway.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
No way on Maldonado
Maldonado's the only reason Arnie got the budget passed at all. He's too important legislatively.

I'm actually not sure he'd get too partisan with his pick...knowing Arnie, he might try to pick someone who would boost his own popularity.

Denham would be interesting--his seat is totally flippable for Dems, who have a registration advantage of 49% to 36%. Republican Arnie might actually like to see another Dem elected--they are much more pliable.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Broken record, the one thing to fear is him appointing
Tom Campbell.  He's easily the strongest Republican candidate for Gov, but he has zero money, so a higher profile would be a very bad thing for Brown (though if Brown doesn't do something stupid, he should be able to beat anyone, including Campbell... that a big "if" though).
[ Parent ]
It's been a real race.
The Contra Costa Times today calls the race between Garamendi and DeSaulnier "agonizingly unpredictable." I agree that Garamendi may pull this out, for a variety of reasons. But De Saulnier could have won with a better campaign, and he can't be completely written off even now.
[ Parent ]
Well, Woods
is performing pretty well if you think being in 4th among 4 Democrats is performing pretty well.

It doesn't clarify the story to frame the primary race as a Garamendi-Harmer contest. The real question is Garamendi versus De Saulnier for the Democratic nod. There the race is 25% to 16%, according to the SUSA poll. Whoever wins that race will face Harmer in the general. The Democrat will win.

[ Parent ]
He has doubled since the last CBS5 poll
He was at 4%, now at 9%, thats pretty good for a totally unknown in a 14 person election, including 3 other well-known Dems
[ Parent ]
It's all GOTV
In a low-turnout special election, it's all about getting your voters to the polls. Woods should feel energized that he's at least close enough that if his grassroots campaign can get his supporters to vote, they could pull off an upset. And if Californians are in an anti-incumbent mood (which, considering the state of state governance, they likely are) Woods could surge at the last moment.

Garamendi's lack of a local base is just about the only thing that could prove to be his undoing...at least I hope so.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Yes, if you think appearing on Bill Maher's show certifies that you are "totally unknown."
And he's still in fourth out of four, and in single digits.
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
If the Legislature enacts the law allowing for a temporary appointment, the GOP is thinking of challenging it as an ex post facto law.  Their reasoning is that since the vacancy already exists, the law says that there cannot be a temporary appointment and they must wait until the special election in January.  Changing the law would be retroactive.

Can any attorneys around here tell us whether they actually have a case?

Sounds like a loser to me

[ Parent ]
Ditto
Trust me, I'm a lawyer!  But you don't have to be one to figure this out.  If the Massachusetts legislature enacts a law that says, "The governor may appoint a temporary successor to fill a Senate vacancy," and a vacancy exists at the time the law is enacted, then the law applies to that vacancy then and there, in the present.  There is nothing retroactive about it.  This gets laughed out of court.

Also, who are we depriving of due process retroactively?  No-one.  No-one has a vested, substantive right in the governor NOT being able to appoint a temporary successor.  Who is harmed by Massachusetts having two Senators leading into the special election?  Last I checked, there was nothing in the United States Constitution or Massachusetts Constitutions that says: "Republicans shall have an inalienable right to political advantages in the United States Senate when a Democratic Senator passes away."  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
This looks right to me
Let me also add that "ex post facto" laws are generally those which, after the fact, criminalize or penalize behavior that was legal at the time an act was committed. It's much, much harder to make out a constitutional claim in a civil/administrative-type situation like this. As Spider says, whose rights are being abrogated?
[ Parent ]
Heh
Im reading this while sitting in my Contracts class....  Which I thought I had this afternoon so I have no idea what we are talking about  ><  But at least Im prepared for Properties later when I get to discuss how Vana White got pwned by SCOTUS.  
[ Parent ]
Good point
I think wording the law so it pertains to filling vacancies that exist, not just vacancies that are created after the law's enactment (hopefully that makes sense), would be a pretty fool-proof way of shielding the law from ex post facto accusations.
[ Parent ]
CO-Sen: Romanoff to Challenge Bennet
Saw it on ColoradoPols.com

From the Denver Post:

Former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff is poised to mount a Democratic primary campaign against Sen. Michael Bennet.

Urged to challenge Gov. Bill Ritter as he seeks re-election in 2010, Romanoff has instead turned his attention to the U.S. Senate race, sources told the Denver Post. One source reported that Romanoff offered a campaign position to a veteran Democratic strategist.


Ken Buck Dropping Out, too
Lots of news here tonight. http://coloradoindependent.com...
[ Parent ]
If Chris Christie is Jabba
Does that make Corzine Chewbacca?
I think we all remember
Who was responsible for Jabba's demise.
[ Parent ]
Indeed
But we don't ever wanna see the governor dressed like that!
[ Parent ]
Corzine is Anakin Skywalker
As sad as it is for me to say Corzine is probably Anakin Skywalker. A good guy who wanted to do right but got into bed with all the wrong people (both literally and figuratively) and end up on the darkside.

There is way too much corruption and backroom dealing in NJ politics. Corzine was the guy who was suppose to clean up the cesspool. Instead he jumped right in and swam in it.

It is a shame because NJ really needed a great Gov. People had so much hope for Corzine. I think his failing so miserably to change the way business is done in NJ is why he is so unpopular right now.

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[ Parent ]
That's a large part of it.
I think his failure to follow through on his campaign promises is another big problem with his image. Chris Christie doesn't have a silky-smooth Reagan voice, but if he were to ask the people of New Jersey, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" the answer would overwhelmingly be "no."

There was a front-page article in the Star-Ledger the other day about how, with property taxes soaring, voters couldn't care less about the candidates' petty ethics attacks. Here's the bottom line: Corzine promised property tax relief four years ago when he ran against former West Windsor Mayor Doug Forrester. Four years later, instead of property tax relief being delivered, he's slashed property tax rebate checks. Meanwhile, property taxes have gone up 20% since the last election and over 50% since 2001, and are now both the highest ever in NJ history and the highest in the nation. Property tax relief is the number one issue on voters' minds, but not on Corzine's or Christie's mind.  

[ Parent ]
Interesting point.
So can we start referring to our guy as "Darth"? Given his ties to Goldman Sachs, that seems somehow appropriate.

And if we're going to take the Jabba/Darth/Star Wars analogy even further, where's Chris Daggett in all this? Admiral Piett, perhaps?  

[ Parent ]
Chris Daggett is Lando Calrissian
Chris Daggett is clearly Lando Calrissian. Caught in the middle between the two sides with everyone unsure whose side he will end up helping.

Besides if Cloud City isn't the kind of place a former EPA Administrator would run, then I don't know what is!

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[ Parent ]
Not quite Jabba
His smooth-talker style more suggests Bib Fortuna.

Yes, I am a Star Wars geek.

[ Parent ]
As if your username didn't already make that obvious....
(Well, fine, only to other SW geeks...)

Also, I'd call Christie more the offspring of a Hutt and Lando Calrissian - bloated, disgusting, and totally amoral, but he's also got some of that scoundrel charm going on. It probably makes him a more likeable candidate on a personal level than our own Darth Corzine, in spite of the fact that his dealings smell like a roomful of dead banthas.

I think I'm going to go into dork overload now.  

[ Parent ]
NO-Mayor, Georges to enter in fall
Former Gubernatorial candidate John Georges says he will formally enter the NOLA mayor race this fall.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/...
Last paragraph
IL-sen
A week ago, their was a press release saying that a GQR poll would be released showing Giannoulias leading Kirk outside the margin of error. Why has that poll not been released yet.
Political trivia: Stassens who succeeded?
The discussion we had on an earlier thread about Mike Sodrel's rumored fifth try at Baron Hill's seat, and about Harold Stassen's ten attempts at the Presidency, made me wonder: what politician tried the most times to acquire a seat before finally succeeding?

Here's one potential candidate: Evan Mecham of Arizona, who won the Governorship on his fifth attempt.  Three of the five times he didn't even make it out of the primary.  He finally won when the Democratic Party nominated two separate GE candidates because of an intraparty rift.  Mecham was impeached and removed from office just over a year after he was elected.

Any other candidates you can think of?

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

William Proxmire - Proxmirean attrition
Proxmire lost in running for Gov of Wisconsin three times before winning a special election to the Senate.

Perfect example of what we need in red states.  Run good people and get the voters more and more in the habit of voting for the person and that party.  Today only gadflys tend to run more than twice, but if you are fighting very old habits you sometimes will need to run strong candidates more than once.

[ Parent ]
Ted Strickland
Ran for Congress in 1976, 1978, and 1980 and lost all three times. He tried again in 1992 and won but then he lost in 1994. Then he won his seat back in 1996 and stayed in office until he was elected governor in 2006.
[ Parent ]
Georgia
Newt Gingrich tried for Congress twice before finally winning.

Guy Millner tried for statewide politics three times (Governor's faces in 1994 and 1998) and Senate in 1996.

Johnny Isakson tried for Governor in 1990 and Senate in 1996 (losing to Millner in the primary runoff).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
John Kline got elected to the House on his third try
Also, Elbridge Gerry (who  gerrymandering is named for)  got elected Governor of Massachusetts on his fifth try, according to Wikipedia.  He ran unsuccessfully in 1800, 1801, 1802, and 1803 before winning in 1810.  Got reelected in 1811 but defeated in 1812.  Then he got elected VP.  Interesting career.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
1-year terms
If they still did that today for Governor, or if the Constitution had given House and Senate members one year terms, can you imagine how chaotic it would be? Non stop politics and fundraising all the time, nothing would get done.
[ Parent ]
It would be awful. Though we here at SSP would probably love it.


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
It's already like that in California.
With the state already being super-expensive to campaign in.

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[ Parent ]
Plus to note
Kline only won due to redistricting and wasn't going to run for a third time until the NRCC got him into the race.  His opponent, Rep Luther, had a friend run under the No New Taxes Party to siphon votes, which obviously came back to bite him in the ass when this got aired.
[ Parent ]
Charles Hiram Randall
a Prohibition candidate, first served one year in the California State Assembly 1911-1912. In 1912 he ran for Congress and won with a 31% plurality in 1914 and won reelection in 1916 and 1918. He was defeated in 1920 and subsequently ran unsuccessfully in 1922, 1924, 1926, 1934, and 1940. He was also the Vice Presidential candidate for the unsuccessful campaign of the American Party in 1924, and an unsuccessful independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 1928. In the midst of all these runs, Randall was successfully elected to represent the first district of the Los Angeles City Council under the new charter 1925-1931.

1911 - Assembly - won
1912 - Congress - won
1914 - Congress - won
1916 - Congress - won
1918 - Congress - won
1922 - Congress - lost
1924 - Congress - lost
1924 - President - lost
1925 - L.A. City Council - won
1926 - Congress - lost
1928 - U.S. Senate - lost
1934 - Congress - lost
1940 - Congress - lost

That's a lot of campaigns, including two in one year!

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[ Parent ]
My Congressman decided to be stupid this week
This is the kind of group that Lampson was facing, no wonder why he lost re-election

Video is captured by my friend John Coburruvias who worked on the Sherrie Matula for State House (TX-129) campaign with me as our Outreach Coordinator. You can here him pointing out the insurance companies turned the woman down rather than the government,



26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

For those who do not know
This is Rep. Pete Olson (R) of TX-22

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Georgia Special Elections
Qualifying for three special elections (to be held on November 3rd) for three vacant Georgia State House seats begins today.  The 58th is safe Democratic (and we have what appear to be some good candidates). The 129th is safe Republican.  

The remainder, the 141st, was held by a Democrat.  It's basically Baldwin County plus a tiny sliver of Putnam County.  Obama probably won it.  I doubt that piece of Putnam was sufficient to flip the district toward McCain.  Baldwin is like 43% black and has a state university.  However, it's swingy.  Bush won it.  And low turnout for Democratic blocs (especially blacks in general and students), could be disasterous.  So far, only one candidate has qualified: Rusty Kidd, an independent.  His dad was a Democratic state legislator while his sister was a Republican Congresswoman from Florida.  The Republicans did have a candidate who filed with the State Ethics Commission, but has been very quiet.  We currently don't have a candidate as far as I know, unless the Dems plan to support Kidd.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Corzine loan ad
If ever there were an ad designed
to be watched at a bar or in the gym, it's this one. The message is actually "Chris Christie is a fatass."  
[ Parent ]
It works on many fronts

[ Parent ]
A friend observes
that it looks like Christie is parking in a handicap spot, and then reporting to prison.  
[ Parent ]
NJ Dems playbook 101
It's an ad right out of NJ Dems playbook 101.

Throw enough mud around, hope everyone gets so dirty that you can win on voter registration advantage alone.

The sad part is NJ politics is less about Dem vs Rep and more about the crooked pols vs reformers.

What kills me Corzine was suppose to be one of the reformers but turned out to be a stooge of the crooks.

Instead of fighting them he just raised taxes on NJ to pay for all the graft.

It is a shame and people in NJ are so fed up they will most likely vote for a Republican for Governor.

On a side note I kind of think it is wrong that all they can do to critize Christie is show him as a fat guy. If someone ran an ad against a handicapped candidate mocking the way he looked there would be outrage. But somehow sending the message that being fat disqualifies you for office or makes you somehow corrupt or stupid is OK. That is not right.

Just compare how 2 members of Congress from Manhattan are treated. One is a smart inteligent guy who gets things done and the other is kind of a moron. I am taking about Rep. Nadler and Rep Caroyln Maloney. Even though Nadler should be talked about as a leader and a potential Senate candidate no one mentions it because he is fat. Maloney who is a bit of nitwit (see her use of the N-word that derailed her campaign) gets a free pass because she is attractive and looks good on TV.

Once again the sad state of style over substance in our country.


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[ Parent ]
special election tomorrow: IA HD 90
Republicans and conservative interest groups are all-in for their candidate, hoping to pick up a swing Iowa House seat that opened up when John Whitaker took a position with the USDA.

I posted a roundup of news on the campaign on Friday and a follow-up today. Highlights: the National Organization for Marriage is spending nearly $90,000 on this race, which is an enormous amount for a rural Iowa House district. The head of Iowa's campaign ethics board warned the NOM on Friday that they are going to have to form a PAC and disclose their donors if they want to do election advocacy in Iowa in the future.

As of late last week, Democrats had an edge in terms of absentee ballots returned. A strong early voting effort will be absolutely critical if Curt Hanson is going to pull this off. I'm nervous about the race because it's not a liberal district, conservative interest groups are outspending us, and the Republican base has a lot of angry enthusiasm now over gay marriage and state spending. If we win this election, it will be crushing for the state GOP, but if we lose, it will be a big shot in the arm for them and their fundraising.

thanks for this.
Please keep us all posted on how it turns out.
Maybe this election will get picked up for a mention in tomorrow's SSP Daily Digest.
[ Parent ]
IA-Gov
A few days after an unregistered group distributed a flyer attacking former Governor Terry Branstad from the right, a YouTube appeared, portraying Branstad as just like incumbent Chet Culver on fiscal issues. It's not clear who created the hit piece, but some signs point to a consulting firm being employed by rival GOP candidate Christian Fong.

Branstad says he will decide by October whether he's running. If he does, the GOP primary probably becomes a two-man race between Branstad and current front-runner Bob Vander Plaats, who is an idiot. Consultants for other candidates stand to lose a lot of money if their guy is forced out of the primary early.

Victims of the Almighty Sarlaac
His Excellency hopes that you will die honorably, but if any of you wish to beg for mercy, the great Jabba the Hutt will now listen to your plea.
CQ Politics headline: "New York's Ball Added to NRCC's 'Young Guns' Program"
In the body of the article, we find out that the actual news is much less significant:

Ball, who is taking on second-term Democratic Rep. John Hall in New York's 19th District, was added to the first tier of the party program for GOP candidate recruits, known as "On the Radar," part of a three-step process toward earning the label "Young Gun."

Nevertheless, I post this for your consideration.

My feeling is that Hall is very unlikely to lose in 2010, but also that it's reasonable for the NRCC to spend a bit of money, just in case.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

Ball has had some decent fundraising
Raised $183k, opposed to Hall's $291k, although Hall has a 3-1 cash on hand advantage.

Hmm, Ball and Hall. That's going to be confusing.

[ Parent ]
Chu-Chu!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 140 comments

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