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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: DavidNYC

Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 9:43 PM EDT



James (l.) and David perform Babka inspection at SSP World Headquarters
DavidNYC :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 209 comments
Damn
How old are ya'll? Ya'll look alot younger than I thought! Especially David, you look like your about 16 from the back  
I'm 26
and everyone tells me I look 5-10 years younger!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I can't really say anything.
Im 26 too, people think im anywhere between 15-20. I guess its good to look young when you get older though.  
[ Parent ]
26?
see, im only 24 but i got perma-scruff so everyone always things im at least 27-28... fml

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
I'm 23 (24 in October)
and I still look the same as I did in the middle of high school (only with longer hair). I also have no noticeable facial hair, so waiters at restaurants will confuse me with a woman.

David and James: GOPVOTER is right. Both of you look way younger than I expected. Will we ever see your faces?

[ Parent ]
random question...
how many people commenting on this blog r gay? i am, and im just wondering what the gay/straight bend of this column is

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
random question
I'm gay!  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
I am.

[ Parent ]
Im not

[ Parent ]
I am
There are quite a few gays here IIRC.
[ Parent ]
Yup
Funny what having a "culture war" directed against you will do to get you involved in politics.  
[ Parent ]
I'm 38 years old, straight, been married 14 years, has a gorgeous 8 year old daughter
I'm the old one in this group.  I still have all my hair, it's still as thick and black as the day i graduated high school.  I could pass for 30 easily.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
I'm 28, straight, single, no kids
But, dammnit, my dark blonde/light brown hair is rapidly disappearing.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
46 here...
Brown hair with moderate amount of gray throughout.  It hasn't left though. I can still wear college jeans though.  Gay, but looking to experiment a little.  
[ Parent ]
Straight, in a relationship
and apparently older than most of you: I'm 44. It's nice to be part of an organization with so many smart young people!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Random Question
I'm straight.

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
Wow, that is random.
lol. But Ive learned along time ago not to answer that question on a political blog.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
My age...
 I am probably one of the youngest regular visitors to this site. I am only 15 but I have been closely following political races since I was 11.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I'm 15, too
I payed attention to the 2004 election in 4th/5th grade before really becoming interested in 2006.  I started my SSP account when I was 14.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Joining in the
mob of 15 year olds. Me too. Interesting that we have at least three on this site.  
[ Parent ]
ME!
I'm 16 and I've been interested in politics since the first grade. I remember we had an election during lunch for the 2000 election and when I got mine I decided to vote for gore over bush (thank god!) and I then started yelling out "Every1 vote for GORE!!!!!". I then went home and I went to my mom and asked her "Mommy whats the difference between Democrats and Republicans?" and her answer was "well Democrats are for the common middle class while Republicans are for big business and the rich" and my response was "I wanna be a Democrat!!!". And ever since then I've loved politics. (thank god I didn't go to my dad or I would prolly be 1 of those lunatics who thinks Obama was born in another country)        

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
We had an election when I was in first grade, too
in fact we've had a mock election every presidential year (I think all schools should have them if they don't already.) I don't remeber who I voted for, but my whole family supported Gore so I hope/suspect that I voted for him, and I sincerely hope that I didn't vote for Bush.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Heh
In 1996 we did a mock election and I was like, Im voting for Perot, simply because everyone was voting for Clinton or Dole.  Conformity took hold and I ended up voting for Clinton.

Im glad I didnt have a mock vote in 2000, I just moved back to MN from TX so I was rooting for my old Governor.  Ugh, then the Iraq War happened and I actually paid attention and figured my shit out.  (I was always extremely liberal, just didnt realize what that meant until the Iraq War.)

[ Parent ]
I feel old!
I first got involved with politics when I was 17 and the 2000 recounts were going on, and we held a mock election in my senior year government class. I think I voted Gore then.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Dont worry man
I feel old too lol. Im 21, started getting into politics in the 2000 election when both my parents were Ralph Nader supporters, yard signs and all. I researched it and felt more inline with Bush and have been a Republican ever since.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
Seconded on feeling old
21 here, too. Likewise have been a political nerd for most of my life - I had every member of the House and Senate, and every governor, memorized by the age of 12. Weirdly, being a DC resident, the signs and machinations of national politics were always around me, though I felt I could never really play too much of an activist role lacking representation. I guess that detachment sort of helped me to foster a wonkish devotion to all the same spreadsheet factoids everyone else here so lovingly pores over.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
I paid more attention to politics after the recounts in 2000.
And my interest spiked way up even further in the next year after 9/11, and though I had known who our president and vice president were since Clinton and Gore since the early 90s, I had only began learning who all the members of the Presidential Cabinet and Congress were after 9/11. I did have to memorize some of their names for a government test in high school, but I forgot most of them shortly afterwards, except for Tom DeLay and Dick Armey (cringe).

I had known shortly after we moved to Texas in the late 90s that Bush was our governor, having seen pictures of then-First Lady of Texas Laura Bush in the local library, though that was pretty much it. And as I mentioned in an earlier thread, I wrote a "letter" to Senators Hutchison and Gramm in 7th grade expressing concern over the environment, which I still remain passionate about today. That was pretty much all I knew about politics until 2000. I had only began learning who our statewide elected officials were in 2002, when I could first vote. (Though I'd have been able to vote in 2000 if I were just 3.5 months older.) I started out as a Republican because of influence from 9/11 and my parents, who are still Republican voters today, though as I went through college and learned more about the parties, I found that my views (socially liberal, economically moderate-liberal, environmentally conscious) fit the Democrats more, so I started supporting Democrats more, and have voted for them since 2002.

Early in 2003, I had started paying a little more attention to politicians in my home state California, and in the crazy recall later that year, my interest in politics there went sky-high. That drove me to study more about the state-level politicians, and track the election results by county, district, and city, which eventually lead me to become the California elections wonk that I am today, and I am not done yet. I want to track every election result by precinct, and check out city election trends.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
My folks
Are both Republicans, too. Although my dad is much more socially conservative than my mom. My mom isnt even religious, actually. though she is socially conservative i think. although my late grandma was a Republican, at least in the last decade of her life (passed a few years ago), she ran for some office as a Democrat in a TX/Mexico border county. About 30 years ago. Her then-husband was actually a judge there, whom shall remain nameless (although he has since passed). But, back in those days in those border counties, and probably still today, you had to be a Dem just to be elected to anything.
[ Parent ]
And no
That judge wasnt the guy Woody Harrelson's dad killed, LOL. He was a local judge.
[ Parent ]
You remember
the names of every congressmen even in TX? Man you really were a political nerd! ;). I cant even remember them all, haha. Although I did know all 50 state capitols even when I was like 9 years old ;). Guess thats close enough ;).
[ Parent ]
My first Presidential election
was 1984, when I was in college and voted for Mondale. I would have voted for Carter in 1980, but I was only 15 at the time. :-)

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Now I dont feel so old
;) j/k

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
It's OK, Kyle
:-)

Hope that you live a hell of a lot longer than 44 years! My father is pushing 80, and we're trying our damndest to get him through his latest health crisis. Prayers are appreciated, if you're so inclined.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
I hope he does make it through.
My grandpa who is 87 has had a few health issues but right now aside from a stroke he had about 15 years ago that left him blind in one eye and having some difficulties walking he seems to be in good shape for his age.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I will certainly pray for him.
I hope everything turns out for the best

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
Thank you, Kyle
And californianintexas, may have enjoy many more good years with your grandfather.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Thanks. (n/t)


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Mine to
Fist election was 1984. I won't say who I voted for except to say I was young and stupid.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
You must have voted for Mondale
Ha! You thought you were young then! I was only a year old!
[ Parent ]
No,
He must have voted for Reagan. Just an observation.

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
Me
Am 27, first started being interested in politics when in jr. high or HS. I was a conservative Evangelical from the age of 17-20 and voted for Bush, in 2000, when I was barely 18, and in my senior year of HS. Mostly because of the abortion issue. But when I was 20 (and maybe 19, i forget exactly) I started to seriously question my religious views and became an agnostic. And, quickly, became more culturally progressive. I hate to admit this but I actually did not even vote in 2004, though i preferred Bush over Kerry. Though I did seriously follow politics even then. I was in TX and I guess I was just being lazy since I knew whod win TX, LOL. But that is a very, very bad reason to not vote and I regret it. In 2008 voted for McCain although I certainly liked much about Obama and, arguably, actually agreed with Obama on more of the issues. But given all that has happened since election day I question that vote. Im not too sure McCain could handle everything thats going on. And Palin...i wont even get started with her. The thought of her being Pres. makes me cringe.  
[ Parent ]
Interesting
I thought you were a Democrat. Why are you voting against people you agree with on the issues?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
My vote for McCain
Was mainly based on economic issues, as on economics I am a moderate or even moderate conservative. And I just agreed with McCain more on those issues at the time. Also I am generally conservative on national security matters and that also played a part. But on social issues, certainly, I am pretty liberal. Pro-gay marriage, pro-choice, pro-pot legalization, pro-environment, etc.  
[ Parent ]
Although I do have a liberal streak even on economic issues
Such as certain health care issues.  
[ Parent ]
Although
Maybe i do agree with McCain more on economic issues even today but I dont have much confidence, now, in his ability to handle these tough times. I should have seen it in Nov. but I didnt.
[ Parent ]
Fair enough
and thanks for taking the time to explain your thinking.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I became politically active
at age 10, when I played John Anderson during a fifth-grade class debate in 1980. My parents also took me to a real debate of Iowa Republican presidential candidates that year.

Around the same time I wrote a report predicting what my life would be like when I grew up. I found that report last year, and it was surprisingly close to the mark!

[ Parent ]
I'm 17
I have been on this blog for the past year and it seems like there is a mix of ages, but most people are high school/college age. It's interesting to know that there are people on here that are younger than me though. I don't know many other people in high school in real life that spend their time drawing redistricting maps and studying faraway congressional races, so it is nice to know that there are others like me out there!
[ Parent ]
Redistricting
I attempted to do New Jersey but all I've manged to do was move Pascrell's (my congressman) further into Passaic County and into Western Bergen county before i gave up. I had trouble calculating how Democratic or Republican districts became especially when cities were broken up.    

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
This Link Will Help
 You can see how each city voted in the 2008 Presidential and Senatorial elections.

http://www.njelections.org/200...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Thanks
Thanks but I already used this link alot. The problem I had was being able to identify the towns of the map correctly and finding out how to split up cities. Thats where I had most of my problems.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
I Used to think....
 That I was the only 15 year old around who knew the names of all the U.S Senators and most of the House members. I thought everyone on this blog was about 25. It's good to know that people who are my age are hooked onto political races that do not affect them. I also will admit I am addicted to Dave's Redistricting App.

My Dad used to work in the Capitol but I think I became intersted in politics by myself. I remember asking him alot during the 2000 recounts who the next president would be.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I'm 48(will be 49 in November) n/t


50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
random question
Gay/21/ and can pass for much older.
[ Parent ]
Damn, from behind David looks suspiciously like my older brother
Who is, by sheer coincidence, living in New York City. I know there's a conspiracy behind this! :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Is his name David?
That'd be creepy!
[ Parent ]
No
My brother is Ben, so it's not that creepy.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
True
But, on the internet, does anybody REALLY know your name?  
[ Parent ]
You mean you aren't named GOPVOTER in real life?
:)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
No
I have nothing to do with it!
[ Parent ]
Like Ned Lamont
(and me!), you have a messy desk.
Only cluttered because of my presence
DavidNYC, unlike me, keeps a pretty tidy shop.
[ Parent ]
It takes me a while to build up clutter
Eventually, the pieces of paper and stacks of books get too close to my keyboard, and I have to organize.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
It was neat as a pin until James Hell came along. You'll notice there's a third computer off to the left... James temporarily displaced my wife, MaryNYC, who made us a kick-ass SSP World HQ poster. (Do we have pics of that?)

Now, you wanna see a boss desk, check this out:


[ Parent ]
My workspace would look a lot like Al's
if I had the budget for 3 cinema displays. Though my very NYC-sized desk would probably not easily accommodate them!  
[ Parent ]
HOLY SHIT that looks awesome


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Darn, James and David.
Now I have to find you two and have you introduce me to this delicious heretofore-unknown-to-me food known as babka.

But yeah, I'll be in NYC starting September or so, and if SSP had a local meetup, I'd absolutely love to go to it.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure neither of you are wearing pants. - eom

Pants? No.
Shorts? Yes.
[ Parent ]
Pants always beats no pants (eom)

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily n/t


50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
And of course
I'm interested in the California races as well as Hawaii-Gov. And speaking of Hawaii, I'd like to wish all Hawaiians out there a very happy Five-O!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
CA-25
For a district that swung pretty dramatically from the Red to Blue column in '08, I've heard nary a peep as far as a challenger for McKeon goes. It seems like we've been able to land credible, if not in some cases top flight, recruits in all the other Obama-GOP districts in CA. My understanding is that the Democratic bench in the 25th is comparatively pretty weak - any insights?

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
From what I know
every state legislative district that overlaps the 25th is Republican-held, and the anchor cities of Santa Clarita, Lancaster, and Palmdale do not have many if any Democratic officials (at least unofficially as most city councils are elected as nonpartisan) at all.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
FWIW
Barstow, one of the main population anchors for the San Bernardino portion of the district, has a Democratic mayor, Joe Gomez. He was just elected in 2008, though, so he's probably not tested enough to take on a veteran like McKeon, particularly in an uphill year like 2010 is shaping up to be. He - or any other credible opponent - might well be better saved until 2012, when (hopefully) Obama coattails will be strong in the district.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
McKeon is safe in 2010, and as long as he wants
But an open seat there is a shot.  His district is bordered by four redder districts and so huge geography-wise that it could be one that changes a bunch in redistricting, even without any gerrymandering thoughts.
[ Parent ]
Indiana House races
After living in IN for two years, I've finally decided to start paying attention to the House races here.  However, I haven't been politically involved here and don't know much about the districts except for Hill's (where I live).

I came across this diary by IndianaProgressive from a few months ago that seems like an excellent analysis.  IndianaProgressive suggests that all 9 House districts (5D, 4R) won't be seriously contested in 2010.  The one obvious caveat to that is that Tom Hayhurst has now stepped up to challenge Mark Souder again (as he did in 2006).  Hayhurst is the best possible Democratic candidate for the seat, and he will make it a barnburner of a race, though Souder still has to be heavily favored.

But what about the other races?  I agree with IndianaProgressive that Brad Ellsworth, Andre Carson, and Mark Pence are as safe as can be.  Pete Visclosky is under federal investigation and may not be around any more in 2010, but his seat is extremely safe D.  Dan Burton is vulnerable only to a primary challenge from the right.

The remaining seats, though, make me wonder about competitiveness.  Steve Buyer drew a halfway decent challenger last cycle in attorney Nels Ackerson, but Ackerson imploded late in the campaign (as in, he couldn't get anyone to show up at his press conferences -- that bad) and wound up getting pasted 60-40.  Still, doesn't this show a bit of vulnerability for Buyer -- particularly given that his district has the exact same PVI as Souder's, and Souder has drawn top-shelf opposition for three straight cycles?  The remaining two seats are Democratic and belong to Joe Donnelly and Baron Hill.  Both won convincingly last cycle, but both faced very subpar opponents -- Donnelly the miserable failure Luke Puckett, and Hill the four-time candidate and three-time loser Mike Sodrel.  Could either be vulnerable to a strong challenger?  The GOP appears to have no bench in CD-02, as evidenced by their selection of Puckett, but is there someone in CD-09 who's been waiting for Sodrel to quit and might run now that he's finally thrown in the towel?

Finally, looking ahead, will we win Pence's district once he retires to run for President in 2012?  Despite his conservatism, his district has a better PVI than any other GOP-held district in the state, and is only a couple of points off from Ellsworth's.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

That's
[ Parent ]
Visclosky
What are the allegations about him?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Campaign donations
from the of the PMA Group. John Murtha and Jim Moran have also been undergoing allegations about abusing their positions of power to the lobbying group.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Probably pretty minor stuff
Unfortunately, NW Indiana has possibly the most corrupt politics in the country (and yes, I'm including New Jersey and New Orleans in that!) -- it's going to take probably at least an indictment of him before this makes any waves.
[ Parent ]
I can believe that
The only reason Youngstown isn't at the very bottom of every postive societal measurement and at the top of every negative one is because of Gary, IN.
[ Parent ]
Hmm...
Having just moved to Indiana and trying to make a redistricting map, I've been doing some research.

IN-06: Not likely. Even as an open seat, that district is still way more fundamentalist than Indiana as a whole, despite its PVI, and Obama's strength mostly came from higher than average union and minority turnout in places like Muncie, which he narrowly won (despite being the birthplace of Dan Quayle. Burn.) It would have to be basically the Indiana equivalent of Mark Pryor, and it was my impression that the D bench in the district isn't that deep. Also, the hot race in IN-06 right now is for Muncie Mayor; the incompetent Republican incumbent has really put her foot in it and will probably draw a top-tier challenger.

IN-09: The GOP primary has a few contenders, but the top guy is an apparently fairly charismatic young attorney, ex-Marine, and former Lugar aide named Todd Young who spent some time as a British liasion and met Margaret Thatcher, among other things. I don't know about his long-term viability, but he's got the kind of "family values military" conservative profile that the district likes, and obviously some pretty serious connections with the state and national GOP machines for such a rural seat. My concern with IN-09 is that too many of the 2006 and 2008 votes for Hill, like votes for John Kerry in 2004, were more voting against Sodrel than voting for the Democrat.

On the bright side, if Young knocked off Hill in 2010, would the GOP couldn't draw Bloomington out of his district because, ironically, he lives there. A Young-represented 9th would have a friendlier PVI to Democrats post-redistricting than it would if Hill was still there.  

[ Parent ]
I still stand by what I said a few months ago
I think that unless it is a huge wave year for the GOP, all 9 of our Congressman, and Senator Bayh, get re-elected.  As others have mentioned, especially if Senator Lugar retires (and even if he doesn't), 2012 is the year for all hell to break loose here.

A few other more specific comments:

I think Nels Ackerson ran a really good campaign.  It is just a brutal district.  One thing you'll find as a new resident of Indiana (notice how I didn't say new Hoosier -- you really can't be one unless your grandparents were born here!) is that central Indiana (minus Marion County now) is the worst of both worlds for us -- people are historically both conservative and Republican.  Those areas moved enough in our direction in 2008 to tilt the state Democratic, but these are not areas we will outright win for our side, unless something monumental happens.

We had our shot at Mark Souder in 2006, and Dr. Hayhurst took a good run at him.  I certainly wish him luck in 2010, but given the seats we need to defend, I'm afraid he's on his own.

Why the GOP looks like they're giving Joe Donnelly a free pass for the second time in a row escapes me.

You say you're in Hill's district -- does that mean you're in Bloomington, or actually in the "real Indiana"?  And I say that as someone who lived in Bloomigton for 9 years, and realize it has less to do with the rest of the state it's in than perhaps any college town in the country.

[ Parent ]
Bloomington
I know very little about the "real" Indiana. :)

I don't see how Hayhurst is going to have it any worse this cycle than he did in 2006 -- he was on his own then, too, since the DCCC basically ignored him.  The national climate isn't as good, but I can still see him giving Souder a real run for his money.  We shall see.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
If you're relatively new to the area,
when the fall leaves start changing, ignore Brown County (where half of Indy seems to go on the weekend), and drive down through places like Lawrence, Orange, and Martin Counties.  Not only will you find a ton of local restaurants that serve real breaded tenderloin sandwiches and bisquets and gravy, you'll get a sense of the deep fundamental conservatism (with strains of populism) that exist, especially in Southern Indiana.  I know you've voiced your displeasure with Baron Hill, and I understand that, but I think he can speak to this type of conservatism as well as any Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
I don't have a car, so I can't go driving anywhere.  But I would like to see other parts of the state.

My problem with Hill isn't his political positions -- I'm well aware that we can't do any better in this district.  It's his wet-noodle personality and his leadership of the Blue Dogs.  It's one thing to vote conservative, but you don't have to jam up the House to do so.  Ellsworth is better on those scores, even though he's got a tougher district.  It's like the difference between Ben Nelson, whom I like, and Evan Bayh, whom I can't stand.  Nelson keeps his head down and votes his conscience.  Bayh postures to the right and tries to jam up the whole Senate.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Agreed on Nelson/Bayh
I dont think I ever complain about Nelson.  Hell, when I do see other people gripe about him, I cant help but find it a bit unfounded and get annoyed by it.  Yeah, most conservative Dem in the Senate, also the most low-key conservative Senator from the deep red state of Nebraska.

Oh, and I also decided to stop griping about Bright and the other Blue Dogs who get under my skin.  We havent spent a dime so far in protecting him and he and Minnick really just may turn out to be Lampson's, the DCCC barely spends a cent on them because it's a foregone conclusion they are goners.

[ Parent ]
????
The DCCC will definitely spend money on Minnick / Bright if they think they're vulnerable.  
[ Parent ]
They spent hardly anything
on Lampson and left many of us going, where is the Lampson that list of expenditures?

They'll spend money on vulnerable members but they arent dumb enough to blow it on races we wont win.  Although, in Lampson's case, it is extremely easy to argue that he didnt on his own whatsoever as the GOP didnt even get to have a candidate after the Delay mess, right?

[ Parent ]
Lampson >_<
Thanks for reminding me that Pete Olson is my Rep now rather than the guy who was about to take over the Space and Aeronautics subcommittee.

*fist shake

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Yup, mine too
And hopefully he will eventually run for office again. Though he is not a great campaigner. And, statewide in TX, for a Dem anyway, you have to be! But he was politically savvy enough to be a more conservative U.S. Rep. than he was when he represented the other district.  
[ Parent ]
And though i voted McCain
I voted for Lampson. My dad campaigned for Olson and didnt like it but ohhhhh well ;)
[ Parent ]
California 44th
In our last episode, you'll recall, Bill Hedrick (D) came out of nowhere to nearly topple corrupt, self-satisfied Ken Calvert (R). Hedrick is now trying again. For some reason, Calvert has been hanging out at some place called Bullfeathers in DC (according to Politico) rather than tending to business in the 44th.

In a campaign email, Hedrick accuses Calvert of "standing in the way of health care reform." Hedrick fudges on whether he supports the public option. (Do I really have to call it the American option as Lakoff decrees? Ugh.)   But reading between the lines, I think he does. He supports "lowering the cost of health care so that no families are ever forced to decide between basic health coverage and putting food on the table." This was a safely Republican district until 2008, when Obama won it and Hedrick almost pulled off his upset. So Hedrick's rhetorical caution is understandable.

The fact the Calvert isn't here yet during the August recess is puzzling. He's savvy with his polling, so perhaps the polls are telling him that the district has reverted to pre-2008 normal, and he needn't bother. Or perhaps polling is telling him that he is in trouble on health care, and he should keep his head down until the issue is decided in the fall.

It's unclear right now whether the Democratic tide will rise or recede here in 2010, but this is a district to keep an eye on.  

this race was totally off my radar
due to the fact that in a previous election the democratic opponent had a dismal showing of only 37%

I do regret that I could have given 20 more votes to Hedrick, as this is my hometown district.

Hedrick will have an uphill battle in 2010 but I think this race is closer than than taking on the 4th

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
Many rank-and-file Republican support a public option
Hedrick fudges on whether he supports the public option.[...]This was a safely Republican district until 2008, when Obama won it and Hedrick almost pulled off his upset. So Hedrick's rhetorical caution is understandable.

This is the conventional wisdom, but there doesn't seem to be much evidence for it. Instead, as Nate Silver posted on fivethirtyeight.com, 50% of Republican voters nationwide support a public option in opinion polls (this might have decreased since he reported on it, but the percentage is still substantial; a recent poll in Montana found about 1/4 of Republicans in favor). I will continue to assert another statistical correlation isolated by Silver: That whether a member of Congress (House or Senate) supports the public option fully, hems and haws, or is opposed to it has much more to do with how much and what percent of his/her funding is provided by medical insurance companies than anything else. If Republican members of Congress really represented their constituents, at least half of them would support a public option (probably more, because some of their constituents are Democrats and independents).

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Point taken, but I don't believe Hedrick has taken a dime in insurance money.
Here's his position as stated on his website:

Comprehensive Health Coverage.  Health Insurance coverage is eroding because the costs for businesses and workers are out of control. I will work diligently to ensure that all Americans have real and permanent access to affordable health care with a strong focus on preventive care.

Portable Health Insurance.  Employees must not be shackled to a job just because they will lose coverage if they move to a new workplace.

Coverage for Pre-Existing Conditions.  Group and individual health plans must not exclude coverage because of pre-existing conditions.

Lower Prescription Drug Prices.  Negotiation must be used to reduce the cost of prescription medications.

You can donate to Hedrick through Act Blue or DFA.

[ Parent ]
Don't be afraid to advocate public option
That's my point, in regard to Hedrick and anyone else. It's actually a position that has substantial rank-and-file bipartisan support.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I personally agree with you.

[ Parent ]
I sadly turned 18 in January of 2009, so I could not vote in my district's election (44)
But I recently asked my parents about, and I come to find that my mother doesn't even vote in congressional races! It's either that, or she is ashamed to admit that she voted for Calvert.  I would definitely campaign for Hendrick in my district, but seeing as how I'm in college in San Francisco, the best I can do is contribute money right now.

Unfortunately, I think Calvert will win next cycle if current fund raising numbers are any indication:

Ken Calvert (R)
Raised: $538,743
Spent: $205,643

Bill Hedrick (D)
Raised: $78,862
Spent: $33,57

Calvert has almost spent 3X as much money as Hendrick has raised.  The progressive community has to seriously get involved in this race if they want to win it.  I mean stuff like taking on Bachman is enticing and all, but McCain won that district 53 to 45, those are Obama's national numbers flipped, all while Obama won CA-44 50-49.

I personally lived in the Orange County portion of Calvert's district, and Hendrick seriously under performed here.

If you wanna win a winnable district, I suggest you donate some money to Hendrick's campaign.

http://www.hedrickforcongress....

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Wow
Going from the OC to SF must be a culture shock.  
[ Parent ]
2 questions
1) What is a "Babka inspection"?

2) When will we see some pictures of you two from the front. Im courious now.  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

Do you republicans ever watch PBS?
If you do, you should see James L. conducting at the Met from all directions.
[ Parent ]
Umm
I watch Oregon Field Guide but thats about it.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
Heh
Fai is talking about another, slightly more famous James L. - James Levine.
[ Parent ]
"Babka inspection" is
where they check and compare the length and the girth of each other's babkas.  

No?

[ Parent ]
From the pic
That looks like it could be possible...
[ Parent ]
Like so:
Homer: Guys, I'm sorry I got you expelled.

Nerd #1: Don't worry, Mr. Simpson. We can take care of ourselves.

[the nerds take two steps, and Snake jumps out of the bushes]

Snake: Uhh, wallet inspector.

Nerd #2: Okay. Here you go. I believe that's all in order.

[all nerds hand him their wallets]

Snake: Oh, I can't believe that worked!

[runs away]

Homer: Wait a minute. That's not the wallet inspector....


[ Parent ]
AZ-Sen.
I asked before last week, and I'm still curious. Do they have any reasonably credible challenger to McCain, or is it going to be token opposition he had like in 2004?
There are rumors everywhere
but I doubt we actually get someone big. Best case scenario is we get a strong second-tier who manages to make McCain go all erratic like he does and then we may have a shot.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
It's probably going to be an up-and-comer
who ran raise a lot of money and will use the race to raise his statewide profile.  Sort of an Andrew Rice type.  The most intriguing rumor out there is Rodney Glassman, who just got elected to the Tucson City Council.  Ordinarily that wouldn't be a particularly good jumping-off point, but Glassman is a prodigious fundraiser and could easily raise a couple million dollars on his way to losing to McCain.

In any case, it's going to be better than 2004.  Our sacrifical lamb in that (and many other Arizona) races, eighth-grade teacher Stu Starky, just dropped out of the race this time around, something he wouldn't do if he didn't know someone better was about to get in.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
I really want to see Giffords
polled against McCain. I think she might have a chance at unseating McCain.
[ Parent ]
Honestly
You can't underestimate how hard it is to run and win a statewide campaign if you're not from Maricopa County. Paul Newman (Corporate Commissioner) did it, but his name is Paul freakin' Newman and most people probably didn't even know what the Corporate Commission does. Joe Hart (State Mine Inspector) did it, but it's probably only residents outside Maricopa County who even care about the State Mine Inspector.

If Gabby runs in 2012, she can win, BUT she needs to start early so to convince people in Maricopa County to get over themselves long enough to pay attention to her. It's probably already too late for 2010 and the occasional rumors that she's interested and making moves towards running

That being said, I want to see SOMEONE poll head-to-head numbers in AZ for Governor and Senator, as I don't think we've seen a damn thing.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Maricopa County
I'm surprised that, from examining all election data for Senatorial races in the last 20 to 40 years, the Democrats have never carried Maricopa County. The Dems haven't carried that county since 1960 (which is as far back as I can find), and for Senatorial contests haven't done it since 1988. The last Democrat to carry the county and win was Dennis DeConcini, a Democratic Senator from 1977 to 1995. I'm not counting Janet Napolitano's 2006 sweep in this analysis.

In fact, it was Maricopa's votes that saved Goldwater from being defeated in his last election in 1980. Can someone explain why the county that contains Phoenix would actually be more hospitable to Republicans than it would typically be to Democrats?

[ Parent ]
Update
The last Democrat to carry Maricopa in a Presidential election was Harry Truman in 1948. Wow.
[ Parent ]
Answer.
Maricopa contains a lot of the conservative Pheonix suburbs as well, diluting the strength of Pheonix itself.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Seems similar to
Harris and Dallas counties here in TX. Sure it has Houston and Dallas, respectively, but also has alot of conservative suburbs.
[ Parent ]
Ditto for the county that Jacksonville, Fl is in (Duvall?)
At least with Houston and Dallas, we've finally broken through.  Obama won both counties (Dallas was a pretty sizable win, too, IIRC).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Well
It has Phoenix and almost all of the suburbs. A Democrat may carry the city of Phoenix proper along with maybe Tempe, but then they are absolutely drowned in towns like Gilbert and Surprise.
Besides, Phoenix isn't all that liberal. Remember that AZ-03 is primarily based on Phoenix's heavily-Republican north Phoenix. There are very liberal parts and very conservative parts, but ultimately it's a big city that has a lot of areas within its city limits that you'd often associate as being suburbs in other cities. City incorporation laws a weird out here and heavily favorable to already-incorporated municipalities.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Here's a map that should help you understand
http://i405.photobucket.com/al...

It's a precinct map from the 2008 pres. election.  (Blue is actually McCain and red Obama, for some reason).  Notice the dark blue areas north and east of the central phoenix area, where most of the red is concentrated.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
Good Visual
I think Dave Leip on his website uses the same color scheme for some reason. The party definitely needs to do more outreach in those suburbs if it actually wants to win Arizona in 2012. Hey, Napolitano and Goddard did it when they were elected Governor and AG in that state.
[ Parent ]
If someone like
John Shadegg challenged McCain in the GOP primary McCain could be vulnerable. But i doubt he will have a serious primary challenge and will probably do fine in the general.
[ Parent ]
Political Forum
Hey guys. I'm starting a general political forum with a liberal friend, and we need a liberal moderator. anyone interested?  
I would be happy to do it
From my time in academia i have learned to stay balanced, fair , and emperical

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
Cool. Your probably hired.
Just give me a few mins to put some quick finishing touches on it, and I'll post the link
[ Parent ]
Here it is
still needs a little work, but its good enough for release.
http://politicallyincorrect.fr...
[ Parent ]
re John Hughes
Being off the net for a few weeks and catching up, I totally missed the news that John Hughes died. Wow. Only 59. Heart attack.
I see that a SSP Weekly Open Thread a couple weeks ago was dedicated to him.
Here are a couple links. This is the Manhattan sidewalk where he died: Tracking Down the Place Where We Lost John Hughes

And then there's a documentary about Hughes that looks fairly promising, with a more interesting premise than most documentaries.
Don't You Forget About Me: it "details the journey of a group of young filmmakers who go in search of the reclusive icon."
It was actually completed last year, but couldn't get sold to any distributor, and looked to be shelved. Then day aftet Hughes died there was a bidding war, and John Hughes doc finds distributor.

IA-Gov
Big news of the week: a new poll commissioned by a Republican 527 group, conducted by Hill Research Consultants in late July.

Culver's favorables are 52/38. They didn't release his approval numbers. His re-elect is 31/55, although they asked the question in a non-standard way (ending with "is it time to give someone else a chance to do better?"). Culver leads most of the potential Republican challengers but trails former Governor Terry Branstad by a 53-34 margin.

Caveats: Hill Research only released results for "likely 2010 voters." I have not been able to confirm the likely voter screen they used. I would argue that no likely voter screen is valid more than a year before the election. Hill Research also didn't release all of the question wordings or the question order.

Branstad said in May he wasn't interested in running, but more recently he has said he's thinking about it and will decide by October. GOP insiders say he will definitely run. They are desperate, because their bench looks weak against Culver.

I wouldn't panic just yet. Branstad hasn't had a campaign since 1994. People have warm, fuzzy memories now, but they will be reminded of his record. Current GOP front-runner Bob Vander Plaats has made clear that he's not stepping aside for Branstad. He will argue that Branstad kept two sets of books to run illegal deficits and raised taxes several times. Social conservatives, who saved Branstad's bacon when he was challenged in the 1994 GOP primary by then Congressman Fred Grandy, are now more inclined to support Vander Plaats because of his way-out-there stands on gay marriage. (Branstad appointed two of the seven Iowa Supreme Court judges and has not condemned the Varnum v Brien ruling.)

Vander Plaats is crazy, but he has a constituency and he will drive up Branstad's negatives.

Iowa's unemployment rate is up but still low by national standards.

Can you explain
how social conservatives saved Branstad's bacon against Grandy?  My understanding is that Grandy ran against him from the right.  Wouldn't it then be moderates who saved his bacon?

I know you say not to freak out, and my contact in IA says the same, but I'm freaking out anyway.  I thought Culver was safe before Branstad got interested; now I think he's toast.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Grandy ran on fiscal issues
Branstad was keeping two sets of books and running illegal deficits. A significant number of statehouse Republicans backed Grandy, as did the state auditor at the time. More background here.

From a NYTimes article at the time:

There is also a Republican civil war in full force in Iowa, where religious conservatives are supporting Gov. Terry Branstad, who faces a challenge in the Republican primary Tuesday from Representative Fred Grandy, who is more moderate.

If you have online access to academic articles, look up this one:

Rosy Scenario: The Republican-White Evangelical Alliance Holds in Iowa
Author(s): Bruce Nesmith
Source: PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol. 28, No. 1 (Mar., 1995), pp. 18-20
Published by: American Political Science Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/42...  

[ Parent ]
Culver's biggest problem
if Branstad runs will be educating independents about the real Branstad record. Branstad hasn't had a race in 15 years, and people remember the good.

A lot of Democrats also don't like Culver much, which will make it hard for him to find lots of volunteers.

But don't forget that the electorate in Iowa is very different now from the 1980s/1990s. When Branstad was governor, Rs had a registration edge. Ds now have a registration edge of more than 100,000. It will be a challenge to get those newly-registered Obama voters to vote in a midterm election, though.

The Republican primary will not be a coronation for Branstad. A flier showed up on some cars in Des Moines yesterday--kind of a preview of the religious right's case against Branstad:

anti-Branstad flyer that appeared in Des Moines, 8/22/09

[ Parent ]
"pro-infanticide"?
Any chance in hell that these wingers had for me to take them seriously just evaporated.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
the plus side of the Branstad speculation
is that the GOP is tacitly admitting that none of their bench could beat Culver. If by some chance Branstad doesn't run, it will devastate Republican morale--especially among the major donors.
[ Parent ]
Or it could be
that they're admitting that none of their bench can beat Vander Platts in the primary.  Remember, the big guns along the moderate-business conservative axis -- Tom Latham, Bill Northey -- all declined to run because they didn't want to deal with Vander Platts.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
good point
I think that's why Northey opted out. I think Latham would beat Vander Plaats, but he likes serving in Congress and has a safe seat (for now).
[ Parent ]
Latham
His district seems to be pretty swing but for some reason the voters there really like him, despite him being pretty conservative. Hes no Steve King but hes definitely no moderate. If it were to open up I bet there would nevertheless be a very tough GE.
[ Parent ]
If Branstad runs
maybe Culver could challenge Grassley for his father's old senate seat. I'm sick of what Grassley has been saying on television, he is turning into another Jim Bunning.
[ Parent ]
Grassley
Is like the anti-Liz Dole. He actually cares about constituent service and meeting the voters. That means alot in an election.  
[ Parent ]
And it should
Constituent service is a big part of a Representative's or Senator's job.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Awesome!
The California GOP believes they aren't small enough so their planning to ban independents from voting in the GOP primaries for statewide and legislative offices.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

I think
if political parties want to hold closed primaries they should be expected to foot the bill for them. Otherwise they should be open to all voters.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
Primaries are for members of the party, not the general public
They cease to make sense otherwise.  Have a primary where members of that party get to vote, or have an all-comers primary where more than 50% wins.  Green members voting in Republican primaries makes no sense.
[ Parent ]
If thats so
Then why should we the taxpayers pay for the parties own exclusive event? This is not chairman of the party, but actual officeholders that every real voter should have the choice to vote for.

This idea of people being restricted by political parties is depressing. We shouldnt even be registering with parties when we sign up to vote. Im happy my state doesnt do that.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
You live in Minnesota?
I like our primary system where everyone gets one ballot with all the Partys on it and you don't have to choose which Party's primary you are going to vote in until you get in the voting booth.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Kyle lives in Washington (state)


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Thats how our primary use to be
before I ever started voting. Now we dont even have voting booths, something I had dreamed of going into for years. Now I have to fill out my ballot in the bathtub with the curtin closed for the closest feeling to that. :(

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
The whole state does mail?
Damn! I thought just local elections were done by mail ballots. What if theres a problem with the mail? I wouldnt like that.
[ Parent ]
That's Oregon
well most of it actually. I believe Portland and the more urbanized areas of the state have your traditional show up to your polling booth and vote system. The more rural areas have mail in ballots, which really means you deliver your ballot to the postal office.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Oh. Thanks for the clarification.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Washington
Is all mail in voting I believe now that the 2008 election is over, as per state law.I know only some areas of Seattle were the only ones with voting booths last year here I do believe. Quite a long ways away from my part of the state.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
Same here.
I believe Oregon is also exclusively vote-by-mail. In California, voting by mail is optional in most counties except tiny Alpine and Sierra, which are exclusively vote-by-mail. A lot of voters outside those two counties request their ballots absentee so they can fill them out well before the election, and then on Early Voting or Election Day drop off their ballots at the polls so they can make absolutely sure their votes count and don't get lost in the mail, and also not have to worry about waiting in line for hours.

And in Orange County, voters can even do drive-through voter registration and early voting!

Oregon and Washington are not very big, so vote-by-mail is probably not much of an issue there, but making a huge state like California exclusively vote-by-mail is definitely asking for trouble.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Actually,
Oregon passed their vote by mail ballot measure way back in 1998, and was the first state to do so. It's a source of state political pride, as is reflexively voting against anything with "tax" in the title, then blaming the Californians for Oregon's persistent budget shortfalls, crumbling roads, subpar schools, and the worst emergency services I've ever seen anywhere.

Also, Washington and Oregon are sort of like legislative siblings, always copying each other and goading the other on. (OR has assisted suicide and vote by mail, WA has to have it too. OR rejects stupid jungle primaries, so WA immediately has to one-up them by approving them. WA loosens its interstate trucking laws, so OR tightens theirs. Etc.)

I do totally agree with your latter sentiment, though. I don't think national vote by mail should be implemented, chiefly because of the big states. California, Florida, and Ohio in particular would be complete disasters, to name just three that we know have problems. This is not to say anything about the New England states, in which the election day slog to the polling place in 10 feet of snow is practically a sacred rite. I imagine a few of the smaller flyover states like North Dakota might implement it to save money, but it's an idea that has little long-term viability outside of the Northwest at the statewide level except in the minds of the Northwesterners who are pushing it.  

[ Parent ]
Sorry about that. :(


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Heh
I dont even know what our primary system is like since I'm only 22 and havent ever seen a competitive primary in this state so I haven't bothered voting in it.

2010 will be the first time though when the gubernatorial will obviously be highly competitive for the primary and I can truly be a good citizen and participate in every aspect of the election.

[ Parent ]
What exclusive event?
Every party is on the same election ballot.

You can join any party you want, or don't.  I don't see what point you are trying to make.

[ Parent ]
Primaries, not general elections. eom.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
?
We are talking about primaries, not general elections.
[ Parent ]
Does any part actually fit the bill for a primary?
That seems like it would be prohibitively expensive.
[ Parent ]
It would be expensive
and thats why the parties should pay for them. Or we, the people footing the bill for them, should be able to vote in any primary we want to.


A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
It doesn't sound like you ever voted.
An election is happening.  Parties are included on the ballot with everythi non-partisan.  It costs a few more dollars to include them on printed ballots... which they have to qualify for in some way.

People can vote in any primary they want.  they just have to be a member of that party.  How can "footing the bill" even make sense in this context?

[ Parent ]
What Im saying is
how is it fair that parties can have "closed" primaries when we, the taxpayers have the foot their bill. If we are going to pay for a primary election, then voters should at least to to chose what party's primary they want to vote in.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
How is it not fair?
Really, what are you trying to say?  

Parties have to qualify for the ballot.
All parties that qualify run primaries.
Any person can join any party to vote in that party's primary.

What does this have to do with taxpayers one way or another?

Almost everywhere now things are set up so every party can nominate a candidate, but I'd be fine with if all parties were eliminated and the top two are in a runoff (if no one gets 50%).  Neither has any tax implications at all, nor does open or closed primaries.  They are just different ways to format things.

[ Parent ]
NICE!
For once, I can legitimately defend the MN endorsement process!!!

With our endorsement process, it is completely party run with no cost to tax payers.  When I voted for Obama over Clinton, I literally voted on a ripped up piece of paper and wrote down Obama because they ran out of ballots.  The endorsement process is for the party, the primary is for Minnesotans.

But as I just pointed above, the primary is practically irrelevant as politicians dont go against the endorsement as there can be retribution for doing so.

[ Parent ]
Kyle, you raised a valid point
I can honestly say that I've never thought about that before.  This is a very thought-provoking question.

I think the taxpayers pay flip the bill so that at least some portion of the electorate (Democrats, Republicans, Indies) can vote and choose their candidate.  If the public didn't pay for it, you would most likely have a convention where a select-few would pick the candidate of their respective party.  By financing the primaries, we are able to increase the value of the democratic process.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Well
the 1998 Gubernatorial election in California had an open primary. Davis and Lungren advanced to the runoff where Davis easily crushed Lungren. It was then abolished when the CA Democratic party went to court over it.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I am an Independent
If a Party does not want my vote in a Primary they shouldn't ask for it in the General Election. To me the best system is a top 2 primary where the top 2 vote getters go to the general regardless of party.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Great! eom


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
AR-Sen, could Lincoln have a primary?
http://arkansasnews.com/2009/0...
State Senate Pro Tem Bob Johnson is considering a primary to Lincoln
New Jersey gov race keeps getting more interesting
Apparently the third party candidate, Chris Daggett has hired the talented media consultant Bill Hillsman to do his tv ads. Bill Hillsman in the past did campaign ads for Paul Wellstone, Jesse Ventura, Ned Lamont, and others. Currently, the Daggett campaign is looking for actors to play Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in his political ads. I predict that a huge % of the vote will go to third party candidates in this race. In addition to Corzine, Christie, and Daggett, there are 9 other third party candidates on the ballot and there are three additional write-in campaigns. Im predicting that Chris Daggett will get anywhere from 15% to 20% and all other candidates will get 2% to 4%. Based on these facts alone in addition to all the news that has come out about Chris Christie last week, this race should be considered once again a tossup. I also believe that more issue and scandals related to Christie will come out as the campaign goes on because it appears as though Chris Christie has a lot of skeletons in his closet.
If Christie wasn't so damn nice
It would be able to stay lean R. But he refuses to bring up Carla Catz. Also, Christie hasn't gone on TV with his money yet.  
[ Parent ]
Well
Forrester tried bringing up Katz in 2005. ("If Corzine wasn't loyal to his wife, he won't be loyal to New Jersey" or something along those lines.) It didn't work out well, and a poll showed that Katz had little influence on voters.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Then why is Christie's loan such a big deal?
Christie's loan was smaller than Corizne's and Christie's wasn't to his ex GF and a union boss. If Corzine's wasn't a big deal, neither is Christie's
[ Parent ]
The loan itself is not the problem; Christie's failure to report it is a problem.
I don't know about Corzine's loan, but Christie did not report his loan to his top deputy as required by federal and state ethics regulations, which is why he is under fire. If Corzine also did not report his loan, then he too is guilty of an ethics violation and should be investigated.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
He didnt
He didnt report it, then amended his returns like Chris. Then he paid her brother in law 360k in November....
[ Parent ]
Oh, okay.
Then I agree the tempest in a teapot about Christie should stop.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Forrester
Forrester got Corzine's ex-wife to say this on a campaign ad "He disappointed his family and he will disappoint New Jersey". The ad was a big negative on Forrester and porvided Corzine with some sympathy.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
He refuses to bring up Katz
because New Jersey is a socially liberal state that is very Democratic.  Christie needs to win liberal independents and Democrats, and talking about Corzine's ex-wife will only piss them off, and send them to Corzine and Daggett.

If I were managing Christie's campaign, I'd hammer Corzine only on his performance and refuse to take Corzine's bait.

I think the race is still lean R.  The race will be decided by the Obama-voting Democrats and liberal independents who dislike Corzine.  If a majority go to Christie or Daggett, Christie will win.  

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Mason Dixon poll
They have Harry Reid traling Danny Tarkanian 49-38 and Sue Lowden 45-40. I find it hard to believe that Tarkanian would outpoll Lowden. Maybe the voters are thinking of Jerry.
Pretty bleak, but Reid hasn't spent much of his giant war chest yet
If he bombards the state and his numbers are still bad it's cause for him to worry.  But for now it could be a lot worse for him.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
One consideration
is that Reid really just isn't a good fit for the current demographics of the state.
[ Parent ]
It's a combination of things
1. He's the Democratic leader so the Republicans have been attacking him since he took over.  
2. Some Democrats are upset with his performance as leader.
3. The state of Nevada is in pretty bad shape.  
[ Parent ]
How ya figure?
What is the argument that he isn't a good fit for the demographics?  He obviously has some problems but I'm not sure I see it as a demographic issue.
[ Parent ]
Reid is probably in trouble
because of the job he's doing as majority leader. I think if he was just a normal senator than he'd probably be re-elected easily. The truth is that Harry Reid was a bad pick for majority leader and it coming out in this healthcare debate. We needed someone who would be tought on republicans and not put up with their crap. I wish that either Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin, Patrick Leahy, or Barbara Mikulski were majority leader. Actually, I heard that there was talk that the democrats wanted to replace Reid with Hillary Clinton as majority leader had she decided to stay in the senate.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, he sucks as Majority Leader
yet the Democratic Senatorial Caucus keeps voting for him. Who can understand what is going on behind closed doors and why?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
The Senate is insular and out-of-touch
See also Joe Lieberman's slap on the wrist earlier this year.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
He should have been removed as Chairman of his committee.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Boxer
I always wanted to have Barbara Boxer as majority leader. She is a great progressive and is a strong fighter for women's rights, gay rights, and the environment.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
I love Boxer
but having 2 San Fran liberals leading the legislative branch along with a black liberal from Chicago, yikes.....
[ Parent ]
Boxer
Wayyyyy better than Harry "Wishywashy" Reid  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Boxer's my senator
She's great, but she, like Harry Reid suffers anemic approval ratings. And we all know how unpredictable the Californian electorate can be. Personally my vote goes to Chuck Schumer, the guy knows how to get the tough things done. He doesn't given an inch to Republicans and was a wizard when he headed up the DSCC. Just look at the health care debate, instead of complaining like Reid has been doing, Schumer has been suggesting they abandon the Republicans and go it alone since it has not been working so far. Just look at his Meet the Press appearance today.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Barb Mikulski would be awesome.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Chuck Schumer
He would be a great majority leader, absolutely. Not only does he know how to win elections, but he understands how to implement policies that help the middle class. Highly recommend his book, Positively American.
[ Parent ]
He'd Get It
If Reid loses, I bet Schumer is the next majority leader. Dick Durbin would probably be passed up because I'm not sure how many non-Illinoisians would be happy that the President and Majority Leader are from the same state.  
[ Parent ]
I'll be really honest
If I lived in Nevada, I'd seriously consider voting for the Repub just to get rid of Reid.  
He's been really ineffective as majority leader, and unfortunately we can't rid of him because Reid has the powerful ace in the hole that the Dems have picked up 15 seats under his watch.
[ Parent ]
He was first elected
in a very different Nevada.  
[ Parent ]
Explain that
please.
[ Parent ]
Just look at the substance and extent of the population
growth. Demographics is destiny.  
[ Parent ]
Well I dont know
what demographic changes are occurring in NV save for there are more people so spell it out for me please.

If it's what I'd suspect and you are referring to more Hispanics, well, they vote Democrat so that doesnt make sense to me.

[ Parent ]
What
must really keep Cornyn up at night isn't the fact that Harry Reid can be defeated...it's the fact he doesn't have a John Thune type candidate in Nevada. It's a testimate to the fact Harry Reid made sure his possible opponents were taken out before 2010.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Here's what I find really problematic
Who the fuck is Danny Tarkanian!!!????  If a giant political geek like me who reads this site religiously doesnt recognize someone who is beating our majority leader by 11%, then, well, FUCK!!!!
[ Parent ]
Former UNLV basketball player
And his dad was their famous coach. I think he's winning by so much cause of name rec. from his dad and from his SoS run
[ Parent ]
Oh
sports. euh
[ Parent ]
IL-Sen
Dem internal will show Alexi up by at least four points.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/s...

It's time for Mark Kirk to be defeated in an election
He is one of the people I'd like to see defeated in an election along with Jim Gerlach, Dave Reichert, Jean Schmidt, etc.
[ Parent ]
I consider Mark Kirk
a traitor to this country for the comments he made to China not to believe our budget numbers.  
[ Parent ]
I agree
What the fuck was he thinking?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I would like to see another independent poll done
         It would be great if he's ahead by that much. But I'm kind of skeptical.
[ Parent ]
On a random note...
Is the 111th Congress the first Congress when all of the congressional districts along the current U.S.-Mexico border were represented by Democrats?  
It is


for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 209 comments

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