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SSP Daily Digest: 8/21

by: James L.

Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 7:28 AM EDT


• CA-10: Lt. Gov. John Garamendi's candidacy for Ellen Tauscher's old House seat received a boost this week from the editorial page of the San Francisco Chronicle.

• FL-Sen: The Corrine Brown for Senate exploratory train is chugging along, but Brown says that she'll need to raise "several million dollars" to be seen as a legitimate contender. The longtime Democratic lawmaker says that she hopes to raise $500,000 by the end of September.

• FL-13: A man who claims that he was coerced by business associates into making illegal donations to GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan and the Florida Republican Party says that key evidence was stolen from his home earlier this month. Police are investigating the burglary, and have sent unidentified DNA evidence to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement for further analysis.

• IL-11: Joe Biden's been on a tear lately, hosting fundraisers for vulnerable House Democrats as "part of a White House effort to safeguard about 70 House seats" targeted by the GOP. After helping out Florida Reps. Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas earlier this week, Amtrak Joe made an appearance at a luncheon fundraiser yesterday for Debbie Halvorson, who's being challenged by upstart Iraq Vet and ex-McLean County Commissioner Adam Kinzinger.

• LA-Sen: When asked, by a constituent, why he favors prescription drug re-importation from "countries that have socialized medicine", GOP Sen. David Vitter responded by saying that his goal was for re-importation to "implode" Canada's cheaper perscription drug regime by swamping it with excess demand from the States. David Vitter sure is one breathtakingly cynical son of a bitch.

• NV-Sen, NV-01: Las Vegas Rep. Shelley Berkley says that she would "take a good look" at a run against disgraced GOP Sen. John Ensign in 2012, but she wouldn't be eager to give up her safe seat and committee assignments in the House. Needless to say, if Ensign does try for a third term next cycle, I don't think his non-aggression pact with Harry Reid can stop a serious Democratic opponent from emerging.

• NY-Lt. Gov: Bummer for David Paterson. A four-justice panel from the Second Judicial Department of the Appellate Division unanimously decided that his appointment of Richard Ravitch as the state's Lt. Governor was unconstitutional. The panel did grant leave for the case to be argued before the Court of Appeals, but it's not expected that Paterson will find that court, which is still dominated by Pataki appointees, to be a friendlier venue for his arguments.

• TN-04, TN-06: GOP Reps. Kevin McCarthy and Lynn Westmoreland touched down in Tennessee earlier this week to meet with prospective challengers to two Democratic incumbents in reddening seats, Lincoln Davis and Bart Gordon. Rutherford County Republican Chairwoman Lou Ann Zelenik and state Sen. Jim Tracy are both in the mix for challenging Gordon, with Zelenik, who lost a primary race for a state legislative seat last year, "seriously, seriously considering" the race. Already challenging Lincoln Davis is South Pittsburg physician Scott DesJarlais, whom McCarthy and Westmoreland met with in order to screen him for fleas.

• UT-Sen, UT-03: GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz says that he's "focused on the House" for now, but that didn't stop him from registering ChaffetzForSenate.com. The freshman Chaffetz, who hasn't ruled out a challenge to incumbent Republican Sen. Bob Bennett, says that he merely reserved the domain name (as well as similar URLs for several other offices) as a precautionary measure against cyber-squatters, and will make an announcement on his 2010 plans "shortly after the new year". It looks like ChaffetzForZoningBoard.com and ChaffetzForDogcatcher.com are still available, though.

• WI-Gov: Milwaukee's Democratic mayor, Tom Barrett, who was recently assaulted by a creep with a tire iron after he attempted to break up a domestic dispute at the state fair, is still staying mum on the question of whether or not he'll run for Governor next year.
James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/21
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SSP Daily Digest: 8/21 | 120 comments
Vitter
Maybe he's just angry that diapers are cheaper in Canada?
Probably...
But nevetheless, now that David Vitter has made it personal by advocating the destruction of the Canadian health care system, which I and some 29,999,999 of my fellow citizens depend on, can someone tell me as a foreigner what can I do to contribute to defeating this idiot next year?
[ Parent ]
Give to the Dem nominee fund on ActBlue
[ Parent ]
I'm fairly sure that's not allowed
Since he's a Canadian citizen.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Oops!
I did not know that it was illegal for a foreign national to contribute to an American political campaign.  My bad.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
I think foreign nationals can still volunteer/phone bank
Get Google Voice or Skype with a number in Louisiana and make phone calls for Charlie Melancon or whoever the eventual D nominee is
[ Parent ]
How would that go down without the accent?
Not well I imagine.
[ Parent ]
I phone banked for NC-Pres and VA-Pres last cycle
and some people commented on my "surfer-dude" accent - all I did was say that I lived in Virginia/North Carolina but I was born in California
[ Parent ]
People here in Texas
commented on how I talked, and that I don't sound Texan. I am a Californian, and am glad to be one, though I don't really have much of an accent. Though a surfer dude, or in my case dudette, accent would be cool.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
No idiot
Vitter was a Rhodes scholar.  He's an extremely smart guy but selfish, bitter, and nasty.  Maybe the diaper has some psychological meaning because he's full of crap.

Yes, David Vitter is not the one we want in charge.  Smarts don't always coincide with good government.

[ Parent ]
As horrific as it sounds...
Move to Louisiana till November 2010 and campaign non-stop.  
[ Parent ]
Next Year
I'll see if I can take two weeks off during September, but I'd have to save up a ton of money.
[ Parent ]
But what about your insurance while in the US?
I remember a scene from Sicko where Michael Moore had to travel to Canada to interview his Canadian relatives about their health system.
IIRC, they basically were afraid to cross the border to the US for even a day to be interviewed, in case they were to become ill or injured while in the US.
[ Parent ]
Maybe they should talk to some of the
thousands of people from Canada who come down here for medical treatment every year thanks to their full march backwards system.


A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
Ask the people who died because their insurance refused to pay
Oh right you can't.
[ Parent ]
I think
the same could be said for these government run healthcare systems in these nations like Canada or the UK. Some of the stories my relatives have told me about things in the UK, its scary. One of them works as a English/Spanish translator in a doctors office.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
Sure
That is exactly why you need a system where people who can afford it can get buy the best possible care and people who can't afford it have another option. Choice.
[ Parent ]
Compared head to head, the Canadian system is superior
All of those anecdotal stories of Canadians seeking care in the US are balanced out by the documented differences in outcomes and life expectancy between the two countries, to say nothing of universality of coverage. And this happens with significantly lower per capita expenditures in Canada.

That isn't to say the Canadian system is perfect -- far from it. Many provinces have been struggling with wait lists for some procedures, a shortage of prima general practitioners and some specialists (ob/gyn for example), and limited access to some high cost or cutting edge technology. While this can be seen across the country, the problems have been most pronounced in Quebec.  Both federal and provincial funding and planning decisions have at time negatively impacted the system. There is now significant political pressure to fix these problems.

But the myth of Canadians seeking care in the US has been way over-blown by right wing opponents of health care reform.

The most comprehensive study of the phenomenon found that there was extremely limited Canadian travel to the US to receive medical services. (As opposed to those who received care in the US because of an emergency while traveling or among "snowbirds" who are part time residents of the US.)

"... 0.5 percent of respondents indicated that they had received health care in the United States in the prior year, but only 0.11 percent (20 of 18,000 respondents) said that they had gone there for the purpose of obtaining any type of health care, whether or not covered by the public plans."  

So barely 1/10th of one percent of Canadians  would be these so-called  "health refugees" -- not exactly  a flood of Canadian streaming in the US because of a broken system at home.

http://content.healthaffairs.o...

Canadians overwhelming support our health care system (despite many of the problems).

In a poll conducted this June (Canadian Press - Harris - Decima) fully 82% said the Canadian health system was better than the US.

When asked about the balance between public and private health care 55% said it "should be more public," 33% said Canada had the right public/private balance, and only 12% said it "should be more private."

Bottom line in Canada -- the system's strengths are the universal coverage, the great access to primary care and routine procedures, and comprehensive integrated care for most illnesses. The weaknesses are primarily focused on access to high tech/ expensive procedures and wait lists for some non-emergency (but still important) procedures.

But the number of Canadians unable to access needed care is miniscule compared to way it happens in the US, where nearly 50 million people are uninsured and all to often unable to access care.


[ Parent ]
Thank you
for refuting that nonsense. However, I think it's best that we wind down this healthcare debate before we spend all weekend discussing the finer points of this crisis.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely agree -- back to the races
What I like best about this blog is the (relatively) narrow focus on elections, rather than being a far ranging forum for issue arguments (we've already got plenty of those to choose from).

Sorry to get caught up in an off-topic stream -- but as a dual national, I sometimes can't control myself when these kinds of misrepresentations get thrown around!


[ Parent ]
Sorry about that, as well
I let my emotions do the talking.
[ Parent ]
Obviously I am seconding this
We've gone through this too many times this year. C'mon, SSPers, you know this isn't the place.
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the detailed info, comparisons
And you said it in a very unbiased way, given that you also pointed out the weaknesses in Canada's system. I have heard, at least a few years ago, that their mental health coverage isnt great. At least in Alberta. A friend I had, who lives in Alberta, suffers from severe depression and has told me that psychiatric visits are not even covered. I was surprised to learn this since i had always assumed "all health care was free" in Canada. Besides things like un-needed cosmetic surgery (ex: face lifts for people who just simply want to look younger). I hope this is not the case and mental health is extensively covered there. I suffer from depression, myself, and understand it is most definitely a real health issue.  
[ Parent ]
Canadian insurance will reimburse for some care abroad
It varies from province to province, but most cover emergency care if injured or taken sick abroad. However, they only reimburse the patient, and often at rates lower than the cost of the service.

It is possible for Canadians to buy supplemental insurance for coverage abroad through a private insurer -- I know that in the past some pharmaceutical insurance plans included that option, not sure if that is still the case.


[ Parent ]
NY-Gov
So it's pretty much settled, Paterson still has the "Espada option" threat in his quiver.  
?


28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure what it means either, but
I think it refers to the fact that since Patterson lost the Lt Gov court case, the next in line for the Governorship is Senator Pedro Espada (a corrupt opportunist).  I don't know if Angarden thinks that Patterson could threaten to step down and make Espada the Governor (?)  -- I'm not sure what that would get Patterson.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
This is andgarden's only half-crazy theory that Paterson could say, "Appoint me to something good, Obama, or you get Gov. Espada." Or otherwise hold Dems over a barrel - perhaps even, "Best not primary me, Cuomo."
[ Parent ]
Yup

[ Parent ]
Apropos of nothing
CQ has an article up about Congressmen who have raised significantly more or less during the past two reporting periods than they did during the same period last year.  Most of the ones they name are pretty straightforward.  But this one caught my eye: CT-01 rep John Larson (D) raised $463,000 more this cycle than he did last year, according to CQ.  I went to the FEC page, and it's true: Larson raised over $400,000 this quarter alone.

This seems very strange for a guy who's No. 4 in the House leadership, who's won his last three elections with over 70% of the vote, and who has no opposition yet for 2010.  What's Larson banking cash for?  Is he preparing for a run at Rell, which would seem like an awfully tough fight even in the primary?  Is he positioning himself as a fallback if Dodd retires?  Is he trying to get a jump on the competition against Lieberman in 2012?

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

Correction
Of course Larson couldn't use federal money to run against Rell -- my mistake.  It must be one (or both) of the other options.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Less exciting option
Perhaps he's just raising money so he can redirect it to fellow Democrats.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Leadership money
I believe party leaders are expected to raise money to distribute to other members and to the DCCC.
[ Parent ]
Especially If He Is Looking To Advance in the Leadership
Having that kind of cash to redistribute comes in very handy.
[ Parent ]
Yup
Pelosi and Hoyer are fundraising juggernauts, but their seats are hardly in danger of flipping.
[ Parent ]
The wheels are coming off the NV machine
The Reid-Ensign non-aggression pact will be completely irrelevant if Reid manages to blow his own re-election in 2010, which he seems to be going out of his way to do. At this point, the GOP could recruit an actual zombie and it would probably win by default just because Reid has pissed off so much of his own base that if they turn out at all to defeat Gibbons, they'll still leave the Senate race blank. If it's an even modestly Republican year, I don't see how he can win with a 30% approval rating when the GOP has anyone on the ballot at all. Throwing money at the problem doesn't work when only the GOP grassroots are energized to begin with.

In other words, we could have one hell of an entertaining free-for-all for the Ensign seat in 2012, especially as he and Kyl are the only GOP incumbents left in that class worth challenging.  

If Lugar retires
Indiana could be competitive with the right candidate -- Brad Ellsworth in particular could give it a real shot, plus I've heard rumors about Baron Hill wanting to run statewide.

Plus I consider Lieberman a Republican incumbent.  We can take him out in 2012.

But we're going to have to defend McCaskill, Tester, Menendez, Brown, and Webb, plus we'll lose Nebraska if Nelson retires and have to fight for WI if Kohl retires.  It's going to be ugly.

Thankfully there will finally be a couple good candidates to take on Kyl in AZ: Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08) and Paul Newman, who just got elected to the statewide Corporation Commission.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Indiana - A fun Place to be, 2012
Open Senate Seat (likely)
Open Governor's Seat
Competition for President

As for Ellsworth and Hill, one of them will be forced to be looking for a new job since Rs will control redistricting. Donnelly might be as well. Point is, Republican redistricting may force Donnelly and Hill (or Ellsworth) to be statewide candidates in 2012, both of whom have a profile to win. This is the perfect definition of getting lemons and making lemonade.

Also, you are forgetting one other target in 2012. Olympia Snowe I think is just as likely to retire as Lugar, if not more likely.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Just wondering...
Where are you guys getting the idea that Lugar and Snowe are retiring? That's the first I'm hearing that about either of them.
[ Parent ]
Snowe had some rumors in 2006.
Something about crippling arthritis, work was getting too hard for her to manage.

Lugar, the rumors are coming from him being 80 years old come e-day.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
plus Lugar
voted for Justice Sotomayor when he didn't have to.  
[ Parent ]
Lugar will be 78 in 2010.
As that age, retirement is always a consideration.
[ Parent ]
Right.
Lugar is currently the 8th oldest Senator.
List of current United States Senators by age

And here's a thing of note: of the 7 even older than Lugar, SIX are Democrats, only one Repub.
Not terrific demographics for us in the future, but luckily those six are all from blue states.

[ Parent ]
Inouye and Akaka
It's interesting that Hawaii's two senators, Daniel Inouye and Daniel Akaka, ate four days apart in age but 28 years apart in seniority.
[ Parent ]
That's true
However, I have to say that Hill consistently underperforms.  For an entrenched incumbent, he should not have the trouble he has in holding that seat.  Since I live in his district, I'll chalk it up to his being a milquetoast DLCer.

Ellsworth on the other hand is a monster vote-getter and would make a fabulous statewide candidate.  We're not going to get a liberal to run statewide -- Visclosky has had some scandals and Andre Carson, who's the best of the lot, is too young and inexperienced.  But I'd settle for Ellsworth knocking the stuffing out of whoever the Republicans put up to succeed My Man Mitch.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Funny thing is
Hill ran for the Senate back in 1990 when he was still a state legislator and got 46.4% against Dan Coats. And this was despite losing Marion County:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

[ Parent ]
That's pretty amazing
Good for him.  I'm not saying he'd be a week candidate, at all -- I'm just saying Ellsworth would be probably the strongest candidate we could put up, for anything.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
It's hard to say
Ellsworth has not faced as tough a campaign as Hill has.  Yes, he unseated Hostettler in '06, but he had basically stopped campaigning the last two weeks of the election.

Baron Hill's a tough politician, from his 1990 Senate run (where he walked across the state of Indiana) to his multi-round fight with Mike Sodrel.

On the issues, the two aren't all that different.  I think Hill postures himself more as a populist, but when you get down to it, they're pretty similar.  They both are also pretty much completely unknown outside of their respective congressinal districts in southern Indiana.

My guess is that in redistricting, the Republicans will make Ellsworth's district more Democratic (they know they cannot beat him, or draw him out of a district), by creating an IN-08 with Terre Haute, Bloomington, and Evansville.  That would make any IN-09 very, very difficult for Hill, causing him to jump into a statewide race.  Ellsworth would have the choice, then of challenging Hill for a statewide race, going after the other statewide race (if Lugar retires -- which on balance I would bet against happening, but I'm not sure), or staying in Congress.

[ Parent ]
That's what I was thinking initially
when I was working on my Indiana map - give Bloomington to IN-08 and let Hill drown. Personally, though, I don't think the House Dems would let that happen, and Daniels is smart enough to not want something resembling a top-tier opponent in 2012, so he probably wouldn't let it happen, either.

Instead, I ended up giving all of Monroe County to Hill while putting all of the marginally Democratic Louisville suburban counties and Floyd County, into IN-08. It probably has a similar effect, in the end, but then Hill at least has a fighting chance.

I'm also assuming some other interesting developments, like Dan Burton either loses his primary in 2010 or retires in 2012, and his crazy brother Woody tries to carve out a district for himself by appropriating the conveniently open IN-06.

Hopefully I'll have that map up in a couple of weeks, if I can find the xml to jpeg conversion utility.  

[ Parent ]
Republicans aren't entirely in charge of redistricting in Indiana.
Dems control the House, and thus the House redistricting committee. Also, Indiana is the kind of state that cares more about dividing CDs by cultural regions. Plus, Daniels has to sign off on any plan, and he's not going to want to make his own life more difficult by making Baron Hill unemployed. Unlike most governors I've had, Daniels is no idiot.

I've actually been trying to figure out a realistic redistricting map for Indiana for a while now, but haven't quite figured out the export features of Dave's utility yet. Will probably get around to posting something in a few weeks.

Also, for what it's worth, I agree that Lugar's probably in his last term, and I too want Ellsworth to run, though his district would be a tough hold. Hill reminds me a little too much of Evan Bayh for my tastes; Ellsworth is just as conservative, but at least he votes sincerely most of the time. Also, he'd be a good balance for possibly losing Bayh in 2010. I doubt this state will ever elect 2 Democrats to the Senate (nor should it, demographically speaking), but it's good to still have one, and have that one not be a triangulating DLC scumbag. Of course, given that the guy who could replace Bayh is literally the next Dan Quayle, maybe I should be careful what I wish for.  

[ Parent ]
You know Daniels is term limited out, right?
And, yeah Dems have the house all right, but it means squat. GOP is just going to wait them out for a Pro-GOP map since they have 2 out of the 3 seats at the table and get the map they want. Dems are powerless in this situation.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
That's basically right
While I agree that Indiana has a tradition of respecting communities of interest and traditional districts, the GOP can do that and basically by a 2-1 vote get whatever they want.  And I don't buy this "Daniels doesn't want Hill to be unemployed" argument.  To run for what?  Daniels is term limited, Evan Bayh's got one Senate seat, and I just don't see Lugar going anywhere either.

And to make matters worse, we control the House by the narrowest of margins, and even in a moderately Republican year, it could easily flip to the R's.

[ Parent ]
2012 looks really challenging.
Shame on you for making me think about it.  D's have to defend 10 freshmen, plus hopefully Gillibrand.  I suspect at least the top four will be pretty challenging:

Tester
Webb
McCaskill
Brown
Casey
Klobuchar
Menendez
Cardin
Whitehouse
Sanders

Of the 14 veteran incumbents, 9 will be 69 or older in 2012, probably leading to a good many open seats:

Feinstein
Lieberman
Bill Nelson
Akaka
Kennedy
Ben Nelson
Bingaman
Byrd
Kohl

The remaining four are:

Conrad
Cantwell
Stabenow
Carper

Of those four, only Carper seems really safe at this time.

I say we all just give up now.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Something to keep in mind: we'll have less likely voters showing up for Obama to vote in those races too
If Obama has a decent chance of reelection we'll probably be getting good turnouts among a lot of Democrats to help with those races.  This will definitely be useful in Virginia, Florida, and Ohio to name a few.  If Obama's not doing well then we should panic, but we're pretty lucky that those races coincide with a presidential election likely to bring out less likely voters.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Maria Cantwell is one of the safest Senators anywhere.
She's got excellent relations with the rich business community, and a strongly Democratic electorate.  The base doesn't love her, but the donor class does, which is probably more important.  Her public image could be better, but she's solid.

Stabenow is safe too.

Neither Conrad nor Dorgan will be safe until Hoeven moves to DC and accepts a job as a lobbyist.  And if Barbour means anything, they might not be safe even then.  :-/

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Cantwell could be a senator till she dies
She unseated Slade Gorton, who was very popular in Washington and percieved by all to be very liberal. In addition, she has very high approval ratings and has learned any possible lessons in terms of being vulnerable after her narrow house loss in 1994. She's not going anywhere.
[ Parent ]
Fishing
Gorton's family is the Gortons of Gloucester whose company advertises frozen fish.  He had this thing about native Americans in Washington state having better fishing rights than commercial fishermen.  So he went after the Indians big time in the Senate and they invested some of the casino money to bring him down.  Perfect ending, especially since going fishing can be a synonym for retirement.
[ Parent ]
2012
Casey, Cardin, Whitehouse and Sanders are safe regardless. Klobuchar and Menendez are probably safe, Klobuchar because if I were MN GOP I'd be waiting for Franken instead, and Menendez because it's New Jersey.

McCaskill, Webb and Tester are the freshmen most likely to have problems. Possibly also Brown because he's more liberal than the state as a whole.

Lieberman will lose to a real Democrat in the general, so he's not a problem. Bingaman will probably run again and is safe. Kennedy will be gone by 2012 and his inevitably Democratic successor won't have trouble. If we lose Byrd's seat to the GOP, it'll also be long before 2012. I don't think either of those lions will last that long. If Akaka retires, we should be more concerned about Ed Case than about an actual Republican. That leaves Kohl (who apparently is retiring according to the latest scuttlebutt), Feinstein, and the Nelson twins. The Nelsons will be tough to hold even as incumbents, and good riddance to 'em anyway. Feinstein's seat is still Lean D in all but the worst years, but it depends on the candidate.

That's basically 6 seats, maybe 7, that we really have to worry about. If Dems max the pickups by taking the probably open seats in NV (Ensign primaried) and IN (Lugar retires, Ellsworth runs), that's a net loss of, at most, 4. Not terrible. Reduce to 3 if Dems succeed in finally knocking off Kyl as well.

Of course, anything could happen between now and then.  

[ Parent ]
Byrd's seat is going to Manchin
If he dies in office, Manchin will appoint himself, or appoint a placeholder and run later.  If the placeholder tries to run for the seat himself, Manchin will just mow him down.  He's the most popular politician in the state.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Maybe,
but what about Capito, who last I heard had been circling Byrd's seat waiting for him to keel over from the moment she was elected?

And appointing himself to the Senate would be like Freudenthal suing to overturn his own term-limits. It'd be seen as self-serving and damage his own chances. Capito could well sneak in during a special election by taking advantage of Appalachia's obvious dislike for Obama, assuming he's still in office by then. Of course, this would be a perfect opportunity for Manchin to legitimately take the seat AND gets rid of Capito, so maybe we should hope it goes down this way?  

[ Parent ]
Manchin and Capito
Would seem unlikely to run against one another. Their circles overlap in some ways, and they are far from bitter enemies. Manchin is going to run for the Senate (he'd probably appoint a placeholder if Byrd leaves office early). Capito is much more likely to run for governor.
[ Parent ]
Is Capito an anomally?
If she retires, is her seat going to go blue most likely since it's WV and it's bluer than a basket full of smurfs save for the presidential contests.  Or should I be more worried about the other two retiring and our two current seats in the state going red?
[ Parent ]
Klobuchar is Senator for life
period.  Even if Franken had lost and everyone was gunning for her in 2012, there isnt a single Republican in the state that could beat her, even in a bad year, except maybe Paulsen, but only in a terrible year.  Really f'in terrible.

Her 20-point blowout win could be attributed to 3 things, Kennedy being a weak candidate, the national environment being amazing for Democrats, and the strength of Klobuchar as a candidate.

I will dispute Kennedy being a weak candidate or his loss being "Kennedy"-related.  He couldnt even manage to win his own district, the Republican stronghold of the state.  Him doing that poorly, in my opinion, points to other reasons for his loss.  His only downfall as a candidate was that he was a Minnesotan seeming arch-conservative.  And that even makes my last point better, his arch-conservative viewpoints are COMPLETELY in line with most of his district, he shouldve won it and has won it.  He didnt, so what happened?

The national environment certainly accounted for some of Klobuchar's win.  Anecdotally, my dad voted for Klobuchar and it was the first Democrat he ever voted for in his life.  He said it was because I campaigned for her and I felt strongly about her but that sure didnt get him to vote for Obama.  He was basically a pissed off Republican who had had enough.  And we're from the 6th district so he'd already been voting for Kennedy for a few years.

And while I cant really speak that well to the strengths of Klobuchar herself as a politician, just look at her approval ratings.  Even prior to her being MN's lone Senator, which gave her a bump, she's been up there in most popular, and is newly elected from a swingstate to boot.

As my boyfriend just said to help me figure out why we love her, she's too Minnesotan.  That's why I cant pinpoint why she is so damn popular and a Senator for life.  I dunno, I think it's just anecdotal to everyone but she is just so damn lovable.  She picks the right issues to get her name out on (child toy safety) and I dunno, she's short, could pass for an Iron Ranger, and is just lovable.

(My boyfriended added, "Its like she's my aunt.  Yup, she just seems like everyone's aunt.")

[ Parent ]
Klobuchar could conceivably be a VP choice in 2016
We could do worse, and probably will.
[ Parent ]
I think once she builds up some seniority
she'll probably be on most Dem's shortlist for VP, starting in 2016 until she gets too old to be picked.  I think out of all the women who could be picked for VP (Im kind of expecting the age of having two straight white men on the ballot is going to be coming to an end quite shortly), she probably stands out and is towards the top for Dems.  There aren't very many Congresswomen with a high enough profile save for DWS, most of the women Senators are too old (or liberal) to be considered, and none of the Govs really stand out.  (I hope Carnahan wins, she'd be another great pick at some point, and is from the all important state MO.)

Plus, picking a Minnesotan for VP has a great historical track record!  (Humphrey and Mondale.)  If she's picked though, she just better not run for President because Minnesotans get blown out of the water in the electoral college.

Although Im dying for Clinton to run again in 2016 and she sure as shit cant pick another woman to be her VP choice

[ Parent ]
Kirsten Gillibrand
Is another woman I'd watch for the Dems.  
[ Parent ]
Gillibrand
Gillibrand is defiantly a rising star among Democratic women. Appointing Gillibrand is prolly one of the only things that I give Governor Paterson alot of credit for. That and being such a strong Gay marriage supporter.    

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Gillibrand is very articulate and smart and has great presence on camera.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Hillary will be 69 in 2016
Rethugs pick geezers for president; we don't.
[ Parent ]
Disagree
I don't think we can prejudge the outcome of that election so far in advance. I also don't think it's necessarily impossible for her to pick a woman as a running mate, but I do see how that's probably unlikely. Wouldn't want to give the heebee-jeebees to men who suspect she's some kind of man-hater. :-P

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Its not a gurantee
Bingaman runs for re-election. It wasn't a very well-lept secret that Schumer had to beg Bingaman to run again in 06, although since Bingaman's the Chairman of a committee now, it might be a different thought process
[ Parent ]
Is that really a concern, though?
Dems control every important office in NM, and at worst the only Republican who will change that this cycle is Steve Pearce, who's already proven he can't win statewide.  Who are they going to run for that Senate seat?  Zombie Heather Wilson?  I think our deep bench can hold the seat quite nicely.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Maybe, but who knows
We've seen neophyte candidates win. And an open seat in a swingish state like NM, is a lot scarier than an entrenched incumbent.
[ Parent ]
I Thought Paul Newman Died Last Year....
Just kidding! I know it's another Paul Newman. Weird.
[ Parent ]
Seattle Mayor: Nickels Concedes
Now it is between Mallahan and McGinn.  McGinn had an interesting coalition, with support from environmentalists who supported more public transportation and conservatives who were opposed to spending money on the tunnel. To win the runoff, he will have to become more than a one issue candidate.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

I saw that.
No offense, but I'm really glad I moved. I hated Nickels as much as the next Seattlite, but neither of the remaining guys is competent to run a Lego set, much less a major city. Mallahan is a tone-deaf, single-issue egomaniacal corporate slimeball with worse personality problems than Nickels who, by all accounts, is directly responsible for T-Mobile having dropped to #4. McGinn only cares about the one issue, and hasn't bothered to explain how trying to push more bicycles for rich people solves the gridlock problem that cancelling the tunnel would cause, nor is he honest enough to admit that the tunnel is a state project that the city has nothing to do with anyway.

If I still lived there, I'd probably write in Nickels. And that's really, really sad.  

[ Parent ]
PPP is hinting on Twitter
that Blanche Lincoln is going down.
Oh . . . joy
/sarcasm

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
i wonder how she will react
if you uses it as an excuse to filibuster HCR, then fuck her.  She deserves to lose.  The only thing that can save her is HCR passing.

[ Parent ]
They've been hinting at that for awhile now
Arkansas is going to be a headache for Dems in 2010.  
[ Parent ]
Senate-wise, yes
But, from what I've been reading about the statewide races, the GOP has next to nothing. Governor Beebe is still tremendously popular (78% approval as of August 13), and approval of the state government is very high as well. This leads me to think that this has more to do with Lincoln than with AR dems as a whole.

I looked at the CQ article linked in the advertisement, and I noticed though that, despite the Dems' problems, voters trust the GOP even less.

[ Parent ]
Arkansas is like West Virginia
Democrats usually win all statewide election is AR and WV except for president. In addition, Blanche Lincoln will probably survive based on Mike Beebe's expected landslide win for re-election and the fact that there won't be a good oponent to put up against Lincoln. In 2004, Lincoln swam against the republican tide and got more votes than George W. Bush got, winning a second term with 56% of the vote. Blanche is staying in the senate whether republicans like it or not.
[ Parent ]
going down...to whom?
Does she even have a legitimate opponent yet who hasn't embarrassed himself?

PPP polls are becoming consistently dubious.

[ Parent ]
Polls seem legit
Premature commentary is becoming tiresome.
[ Parent ]
Funny
I thought SSP was all about premature commentary.

I suppose I could just wait for the election to talk about it though.

[ Parent ]
We aren't pollsters

[ Parent ]
True
but I hardly feel out of line in noticing that PPP's polls have skewed pretty far right this year, most notably in Colorado and Ohio, compared to previous years in which they were often seen as erring on the side of the Democrats.
[ Parent ]
LOL
Good call. We'll be taking a break. See you guys in November 2010.
[ Parent ]
I've been warning about this
but have gotten mainly flamed.

The teabaggers and birthers, which are probably a large part of the white rural South (and a fringe outside of it) will have near 100% turnout.  In a lower turnout election, it will mow the turnout by the general population.

Even in the best case scenario, where we pick up 5-7 net House seats outside the South, that may be wiped out in the Southern states.

[ Parent ]
Frankly, I would not be sorry
to trade two southern white Democrats for one from the north.  
[ Parent ]
You partly misunderstand these people
It's no coincidence third party folks are in high concentration at these events.  A large percentage of these folks won't vote for Republicans if given an alternative.
[ Parent ]
The polls support that
Dems slipping but absolutely no movement to the GOP.
[ Parent ]
David Paterson and race
Gov. David Paterson played the race card in a big way today, suggesting he is facing tougher questions about his performance and political viability than the governors of most other struggling states because he is black.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...

Paterson
is a dick. No self respecting man would make these charges. The state that gave a landslide to Obama not wanting him because hes black. These are the people who help create racial divides in this country instead of working towards a colorblind society.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
This I agree with

[ Parent ]
While it is bad form to blame racism for one's troubles
the truth is African-American politicians are held to a different standard in this country.  How many times during the primaries did Obama have to defend his "readiness", his very competency to be president, compared to John Edwards, also a one-term Senator, who never seemed to be criticized for his lack of experience.

Take a look at SC Gov. Mark Sanford, I'm talking before all these recent scandals.  As far back as 2005 he was listed by Time as one of the nation's worst governors, lumped in with Kathleen Blanco and Bob Taft.  He was so ineffective that the Republicans in the state legislature basically ignored him.  Sanford would veto random things in the budget and be over-ridden by his own party.  He brought actual pigs to the capitol to protest "pork-barrel" spending, and the pigs crapped all over the place.  He was an embarrassment for years before any of this recent stuff.  Yet he largely escaped constant badgering over his ability to perform as governor.

Just about from the day he was sworn in, Paterson has been constantly fighting the image that he isn't capable of doing his job.

[ Parent ]
I agree also.
That reminds me of a quote from Coretta Scott King (RIP).

Segregation was wrong when it was forced by white people, and I believe it is still wrong when it is requested by black people.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Yes, he's a dick
and an incompetent. Perfect application of the Peter Principle. As long as he was in a do-nothing position - Lieutenant Governor - he was fine. He is a pathetic Governor and has almost no chance of winning reelection.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Re: Biden hosting fundraisers
It's nice to see that Obama & Emanuel have found an excellent use for him.
But just please stick to the script, Joe, when making remarks.
tennessee
Is another state moving away from us.  I don't mean to sound like a concern troll, but I'm nervous about TN-4 and TN-6.  Obama cratered big time in both districts, and even at the state level they seem to be moving in the Repub direction.  Even though Cook rates these districts as Solid D, those new R+13 PVIs are scary.  

If the Reps are able to get a solid candidate in either district, look out.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Republicans have tried in the past
but they can't dislodge those guys.  Gordon in particular wasn't even challenged last year.  I'm not too worried about Obama dragging them down, they've been around long enough to withstand unfavorable national pressure.
[ Parent ]
Yes but
as long as Gordon and Davis continue to run for reelection these seats should be safe

the concern will come when they retire or if there is some blatant gerrymandering

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
I'm nervous about EVERY
Southern rural seat.  Recent polls have shown that less than half of Southerners believe that Obama was born in the US.  The turnout of the teabaggers and birthers will be through the roof next year.  The only thing that may dampen this is a bipartisan immigration reform bill.

These 23 Democratic seats are in the rural South.  I predict we lose 7-12 of them next year, outside these areas have no net loss.

VA-5
VA-9
KY-6
NC-2
NC-7
NC-8
NC-11
SC-5
FL-2
GA-8
GA-12
TN-4
TN-6
TN-8
AL-2
AL-5
MS-1
MS-4
LA-3
AR-1
AR-4
TX-17
OK-2

[ Parent ]
If I could cling to any of those
VA-5 and TX-17 would be the two I'd grab onto and make sure to keep.

The ones I'd let go (or are mostly likely too, w/e); SC-5, FL-2, TN-4, TN-6/8 (pick one, I don't care), AL-2, one the AR districts (I don't care which), and OK-2.

The possible open LA-3 and GA-8 and 12 I can go either way on.

The rest have some good people in them I'd definitely like to see around for a while more.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
8 of these districts contain good Democrats
who vote with us when they can and generally keep their mouth shut when they can't: VA-5, VA-9, SC-5, NC-2, NC-8, TN-6, TX-17, and KY-6.

Another 10 are general Blue Dogs: NC-7, NC-11, TN-4, TN-8, GA-8, GA-12, MS-1, LA-3, AR-1, AL-5.

Five of them basically are Republicans and it is immaterial whether we hold them or not: AR-4, MS-4, AL-2, FL-2, OK-2.  Some like Mike Ross and Dan Boren trash the party regularly and are more trouble than is worth.

[ Parent ]
KY-6
Kentucky 6 really does not fit the grouping.  It consists of Lexington (pop. 282,000), its metro area (another 170,000), and Frankfort and surroundings (50,000).  The remaining 180,000 or so is rural.  Lexington,of course is dominated by horse, horse racing, and the University of Kentucky.  I was there this summer and it really is a beautiful area of gently rolling greenery.  Ben Chandler and the others in your first group areindeed, OK.

The two metropolitan areas of Kentucky, Louisville and Lexington, are represented by emocrats.  The rest of the state is represented by Republicans in the House.

LA-2 is a likely pickup with Bill Jeffersn no longer running as the Democratic candidate. Many of the other districts like VA-9 are OK as long as the incumbent is still around but might well shift upon his retirement.

[ Parent ]
Response
VA-5 - Perriello is definitely one of the most endangered incumbents next year, but he's been working his butt off to show his constituents he's a good representative.
VA-9 - Boucher will be in for a tough fight if Terry Kilgore runs, but it would be a tossup at worst.
KY-6 - Chandler has plenty of personal appeal in this district. I don't see it being competitive.
NC-2 - Only competitive if Etheridge goes for Senate.
NC-7 - Would require a strong recruit, which the Republicans probably can't find.
NC-8 - Republicans are struggling to recruit here.
NC-11 - Shuler is not at all in danger.
SC-5 - Spratt has survived a number of tough bids (including 1994). When he retires his seat will probably go Republican, but not before.
FL-2 - Boyd has over a million on hand and no GOP opponent. The primary challenge that he was supposed to get is not going anywhere.
GA-8 - Marshall is definitely a target, but no Republican has announced a run yet.
GA-12 - Barrow has consolidated his support in this district; his opponent is raising some money (but it's mostly a loan, I believe) but I don't think he'd lose outside a 1994-type situation.
TN-4 - It's a tough district and we'll probably lose it when Davis retires, but he will probably hold it.
TN-6, TN-8 - Despite Obama's underperformance neither of these were even contested by the Republicans last year.
AL-2 - Bright is very vulnerable. Not that he'd be a great loss.
AL-5 - Griffith is somewhat vulnerable, but northern Alabama remains very Democratic at a state level, so there aren't a lot of viable Republican candidates here. After all, they did run a retread from a decade ago.
MS-1 - Childers could be defeated in a bad year; I don't know if Nunnalee is a strong enough candidate to beat him otherwise, though.
MS-4 - Gene Taylor vulnerable? You're kidding.
LA-3 - Definitely a tough seat to defend, but it's not impossible to win there. Melancon was elected in a bad Democratic year, 2004.
AR-1 - Honestly, Mike Ross losing wouldn't be that bad a thing. But there's no Republican bench in the state. If they target a race in Arkansas, it will be the Senate.
AR-4 - See above re: bench.
TX-17 - Edwards is vulnerable to a strong challenger.
OK-2 - Boren will not lose. He is way too personally popular.

So, in my opinion, the only really vulnerable districts right now from the list are VA-5, NC-8, GA-8, AL-2, AL-5, MS-1, LA-3, and TX-17.

[ Parent ]
How would your predictions hold up
for a 1994 style Repub wave?  

The way I see 2010 is a 1994-type Repub landslide in the South and a pro-incumbent and possibly even pro-Democratic election outside the South.

[ Parent ]
1994 would mean a massive shift to the Republicans
so it wouldn't matter.

And honestly, I could think of worse things to happen than losing a bunch of Blue Dogs.

[ Parent ]
Well that's what I'm thinking
a 1994-type situation in the South, but pro-incumbent everywhere else.  The end result is 7-12 seats lost in the South, with the Dems picking up a couple net outside the South.

And not all the Dems I listed were Blue Dogs.  There are some decent ones there.  Not that many, but still some that aren't ones we should concede.

[ Parent ]
That's what I expect, if the economy turns around
If it doesn't, all bets are off.  
[ Parent ]
KY-6
I'm not too concerned about KY-6. Chandler has entrenched himself pretty well, and the presence of Lexington in the district helps keep a check on the hicks.
[ Parent ]
And Frankfort
The state capitol is in KY-06 along with Lexington.  It's not THAT rural.  And, as a somewhat off-track thought, I think we have a shot at VA-04, a fairly AA heavy (but white majority) district for the rural south.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
I hope not
Chandler is one of the better ones on the list above.
[ Parent ]
VA-5, AL-2, LA-3
I think these three are goners. Perriello and Bright squeaked by in a very good year and Melancon is running for Senate. I'm not too worried about the others. If 2010 goes bad, we'll lose a lot of seats outside of the South too.
[ Parent ]
I don't care about Bright
he's basically a Republican, so no loss there.  Periello, however, could be a real star down the line, so losing him hurts.
[ Parent ]
Perriello
is working extremely hard to win people over in his district. He's not a goner yet.
[ Parent ]
He was a longshot
We have to remember that he was a long shot and made a huge comeback from what in early and not-so-early polling  looked like it was going to be a blowout loss in 2008.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Hmm.
GA-12 is a blue district.  Al Gore won it.  Repeat.  Al Gore won it despite getting annihilated in Georgia.  Obama won it by nine.  Yes, it undoubtedly went for Perdue in 2006, but I doubt Barnes/Baker/Porter/Poythress will lose that badly, certainly not in an open seat race.  If John Barrow loses, it will be to another Democrat.  And I'm all for that.  I think the fact that several area Republicans (State Sen. Eric Johnson, State Rep. Buddy Carter, and Chris Edenfield have turned the race down for other races, I think, further illustrates that this district is not a tossup.

NC-02 is also a blue district.

MS-04, SC-05, TN-06, TN-08, VA-09: Those reps survived 1994.  2010 is not going to be a 1994.  Plus, they're some are pretty powerful.

And quite frankly, we'd be better off without many of those you list (e.g. Bright, Marshall, Boyd, Ross).



Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure that
2010 won't be a 1994 in the rural South., and pro-incumbent, and perhaps even a slight Dem bent outside the South.

Not all the people in that list will lose even in my scenario.  I'm projecting 7-12 losses.  And yes, some of those like Bright/Boyd/Ross/Boren are worthless or worse.

[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 8/21 | 120 comments

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