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NC-08: McCrory Won't Challenge Kissell

by: James L.

Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 5:43 PM EDT


A major bullet dodged for Larry Kissell:

A rendezvous at a Concord barbecue joint Tuesday helped change the political outlook in North Carolina's 8th Congressional District.

Former Republican U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory met to talk about next year's House race. As the two sipped Diet Cokes, Hayes asked McCrory the question he'd asked before: Would the mayor run?

No, McCrory replied.

"It was obvious that he wasn't going to do it now," Hayes said, "so I needed to get out of the way and let the primary develop so we can win the general election."

McCrory is staying publicly mum for now, but the Charlotte Observer reports that he's told "party insiders" not to expect a race out of him. McCrory likely would have been the strongest possible candidate the GOP could cough up here, but it looks like it's back to the drawing board for the NRCC.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-08

James L. :: NC-08: McCrory Won't Challenge Kissell
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McCrory Is Looking At 2012
Most likely running for governor again, which is a better shot for him given Bev Perdue's dismal job performance so far.  

What is Mcrory's record
including passing up opportunities for various races?

He's been mayor for 14 years
and was on the city council for 6 years before that. Sue Myrick has held the more Republican House district covering Mecklenburg County since 1994, so he probably hasn't had a chance to move up to Congress.

[ Parent ]
Politico lists two Republicans the NRCC is looking at
Retired Army colonel Lou Huddleston and Union County DA John Snyder.  Huddleston lost a state House race pretty badly in 2008, 62% to 38%, so he doesn't feel like too much of a threat.  Snyder is harder to tell.  Union County is divided between the 8th and 9th CDs.  The county is pretty Republican but backed Kissell in 2008 and only narrowly backed Hayes in 2008.  So on paper at least Snyder could take some of Kissell's votes away from him.  Hopefully someone who knows more  about the area can help handicap how well Snyder might do.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Snyder would have the same problems as Hayes and McCrory
Despite his base in Union County, I don't think Snyder would be all that strong. He would have the same weakness Hayes did in the eastern half of the district, not to mention that heavily Democratic slice of Charlotte.

He might narrow Kissell's margin, certainly, but I don't see him being too serious a threat.


[ Parent ]
I have met Snyder before
He's an extremely charismatic guy. Despite his extremely right-wing views, I found myself liking him.

He'll be the candidate. A good friend of mine is a Republican insider in the 8th District and said months ago that Snyder would be the nominee if Hayes didn't run again. He's well-liked in (what there is of) the state Republican Party.


[ Parent ]
No surprise
As I've said before, if McCrory ever runs for Congress, it will be to succeed Sue Myrick in NC-9. The sliver of Mecklenberg County (Charlotte) that is in NC-8 is heavily Democratic and was most likely lost by McCrory in the governor's race. The eastern half of the district would be even more hostile to him, as both an R and as a city slicker.

Republican part of Charlotte
Seems to be mostly in NC-9. And Myrick herself use to be a Charlotte mayor. So it doesnt shock me that he, another Charlotte Republican, would want to run in NC-9. She is 68 and will probably be in the minority for a long time so perhaps she wont be in Congress much longer.  

[ Parent ]
Kind of an interesting question
If McCrory would have decided to run against Kissell, wouldn't you think that - if he would have run and beaten Kissell, he could have still run for Governor in 2012 and he would have been the odds-on favorite? He would have been up for re-election in the House in 2012 anyways, so I don't see that a successful run for the House in 2010 would have preventing him from running for Governor in 2012.

Reading between the lines, then, the suggestion here is that McCrory was concerned that he would not beat Kissell, and he decided to leave well enough alone so that his Governor prospects for 2012 are preserved.


Running as a freshman Congressman for gov isn't the best strategy
He'd only be on the job a few months before switching, making him look pretty uncommitted.  If Perdue's numbers are still in the dump it won't matter, but it could if she recovers or is replaced by someone more popular.

Plus, in Congress he'd need to make some tough votes that may cost him.  Why take the risk for a job you don't really plan to stay in?  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]

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