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NC-Sen, NC-02: Etheridge Taking Another Look at Senate Race

by: James L.

Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 5:52 PM EDT


Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge has been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate since Attorney General Roy Cooper passed on the race, but he never appeared to show much interest in challenging Richard Burr. It looks like he's giving the race a closer look after being pressed by the DSCC in recent days. From the News & Observer:

Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge said today that he is giving some thought to running against Republican Sen. Richard Burr next year.

Etheridge, a Lillington Democrat, said he has been courted by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee as a potential candidate, reports Rob Christensen.

"I'm evaluating it," Etheridge said during a meeting Wednesday with reporters and editors at The News & Observer.

Etheridge said he met recently with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and had discussions with family members and a few key supporters. Etheridge said he hoped to make a decision by September.

Etheridge would be a pretty decent candidate for this race, though I wouldn't relish defending his open R+2 seat -- especially if the wind is blowing against us next year. Obama did actually carry Etheridge's district by a 52-47 margin according to SSP's Prez-by-CD analysis, but Bush won the district by eight points in 2004 and seven points when Al Gore was on the ballot.

Etheridge has a bit of money in the kitty -- just shy of $900K -- and has the potential to raise a bunch more from his perch on Ways and Means. This seems to be a top concern for the DSCC, as the organization hasn't been rushing to embrace the potential candidacy of NC SoS Elaine Marshall, perhaps in part due to her fundraising difficulties during her last Senate primary campaign.

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NC-Sen, NC-02: Etheridge Taking Another Look at Senate Race | 37 comments
Can't we find someone
from the RTP/Charlotte/Greensboro regions who can run up the score in these "new economy" areas and also by run up the score with blacks can win the state?

I'm sick of nominating candidates in states like VA and NC who have to kiss the behind of conservative rural areas which are shrinking.  Kay Hagan was a good example of such a candidate.

Obama didn't win VA and NC by courting conservative rural areas, he won these states in the high-tech areas of No Va and RTP/Charlotte/Greensboro.

Hrmm
"I'm sick of nominating candidates in states like VA and NC who have to kiss the behind of conservative rural areas which are shrinking."

If it wasn't for those conservative rural areas there would be no Democratic majority.

Which hey, if you'd prefer ignoring the rural areas and lose the shrinking (yet still plentiful) Democratic base in those areas, then that's fine, just don't complain when 0% of your issues are addressed instead of 50%.

[ Parent ]
Obama did worse than any Democrat ever
in the white areas of the rural South.  Worse than Mondale.  Worse in many cases than McGovern.  Obama won by 10% in Pennsylvania, while putting up a pathetic performance in Western PA, which was much worse than Mondale and Dukakis.

We aren't going to be winning the rural conservative South/Appalachia anytime soon.  

[ Parent ]
Hey
I'm referring to Congress, mainly the House. You did not specify the Presidential level.

Last time I checked there are quite a few Democrats winning rural conservative areas in the South.

[ Parent ]
Even statewide
we've reached a tipping point in VA and NC.  Before 2008, a Democrat who could appeal to rural areas was the best bet.  

Now such a Democrat will probably hurt us in the metro areas.  Bev Purdue is a good example, she was pretty strong for a Dem among white rural voters, but she did poorly in the metro areas.  If black voters didn't turn out in large numbers, Purdue would have lost.

I don't think Etheridge will play well among professionals in the Triangle or in Charlotte or Greensboro metro.  Most of them are down on Burr, but Etheridge isn't the best guy here.  

Even more so, he is 68.  We need a much younger candidate who will be able to connect with people in the metro areas.  Sounds like Cal Cunningham is our best bet.

[ Parent ]
Well
Obama had unique strengths and weaknesses, just as any politician.  Just because he set records in states like California and Virginia doesn't mean future Democrats will enjoy that success, and at the same time his deficits in rural Appalachia and other areas doesn't mean that all future Democrats are doomed there.

We could easily win states like West Virginia and Arkansas with the right candidate, given those states' huge Democratic registration advantages and local Democratic power.

[ Parent ]
But
a Democrat who could win WV or AR would have to be quite centrist/conservative. What would be the advantage? I think Democrats should rather loose those states to get a real Democratic president.
[ Parent ]
You Don't Know 'Til You Try
West Virginia hasn't had its votes taken seriously in decades.  It was a reliably Democratic state for most of the second half of the Twentieth Century, and then quickly morphed into a reliably Republican vote over the past ten years.  In other words, no one has thought to ask for the votes of West Virginians in quite some time.

I'm not a fan of writing off entire states; especially states that need the help of the federal government as badly as West Virginia does.

Mad At Thad:  A Blog Devoted To Ousting Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, Republican - Michigan

[ Parent ]
I agree
and I'd like to think that, if President Obama gets a progressive agenda passed that palpably helps poor unemployed and working people in such states, they will support him for reelection.
[ Parent ]
Etheridge's district
While there are cerrtainly rural areas in his district it also has alot of people who work in the Research Triangle. Its pretty much a mix district.
[ Parent ]
Obama won the district
solely because of his edge in Wake County of almost 18K.  He lost the rest of the district.
[ Parent ]
Apples and Oranges
I'm not sure I follow your logic here, though it could easily be the fact that it's fairly late here.

You're comparing Obama's numbers in the district to Etheridge's?

1) Obama was the Presidential candidate, there are plenty of voters, especially in the South, who will vote for one party for President and another party further down the ballot. We have that happening quite a lot in Georgia. Many counties are Democratic locally, but become much more Republican as we move up the political ladder. I'd guess in the northeast there are some areas that are the opposite, staunchly Republican locally but more Democratic up the ladder.

2) Etheridge running for Senate would likely fair better than Obama, not only because it's a different race (Senate vs President), but because he has represented the area in Congress for quite awhile.

[ Parent ]
Hagan?
Kay Hagan is your best example?  Really?

She won by nine points (outrunning Obama, by the way).

Seems to me that we should have more candidates like Kay Hagan, not less.

Mad At Thad:  A Blog Devoted To Ousting Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, Republican - Michigan

[ Parent ]
I'm arguing for more candidates
like Hagan, who comes from Greensboro and appealed very well to RTP and Charlotte.  Sorry if my post was unclear.

And less candidates statewide whose primary appeal is to rural areas like Purdue, Etheridge, McIntyre, and Shuler.

[ Parent ]
Confused
In an earlier post you called Hagan a prime example of the kind of candidate you do NOT want running, now she is the right kind?

It seems like you're wanting to say "we need more liberal candidates" but you're hiding behind the "less rural appeal" stuff. If that's the case, hey just say it, I guarantee there's more who will agree than disagree with you on here :)

Anyway, let's take your approach to some other southern states. I'll just use members of Congress as an example.

Georgia - Can you honestly see John Lewis or Hank Johnson winning statewide? After all, the districts they represent fall into the type of category you want!

Tennessee - Cohen running statewide? Sorry, don't see it happening.

[ Parent ]
Maybe a GA 07 type could win the state
I'd much rather have a Democrat who could perform extremely well in big metro areas like Charlotte and the RTP. Look at GA for example; I'd much rather have a Democrat winning Gwinnett and Cobb County than I would one who mops up Baker and Laurens County. Look at Roy Barnes in 2002 who won more counties (especially rural counties!) than Obama yet who got a lower percentage than Obama. If he could have done better than 37 percent in Gwinnett (more like 45 percent like Obama) and 45 in Cobb, than I think he would have won reelection rather than if he had won more rural counties.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
[ Parent ]
Wow
Barnes is in no way a rural Democrat, lol. He's a metro candidate by far, and simply mentioning his name in certain areas in Georgia will bring about a ton of words that need not be mentioned on here! Barnes did not even pay attention to the rural areas in 2002, at least not in Middle and South GA because he knew the flaggers and educators were angry.

Not only do I disagree with comparing a Gubernatorial race with a Presidential race, especially in areas where there is a big Democratic difference, I think it's also wrong to compare 2002 to 2008, simply because of the party changes going on.

Sure, I can understand the logic of going where the most voters are, but as a rural Democrat, I think it is a mistake for those in the party who advocate ignoring rural areas completely. There are quite a few on the left who wish to do that, not because of the number of votes, but because they want to purge the party of center-right members.

I'm the type that likes a candidate that can get a mix of both urban and rural support. While the coalition we used to have in our state has been dismantled, I am one of those that believes a rural-urban coalition can be recreated. Sanford Bishop, John Barrow, and Jim Marshall could all run statewide in Georgia and fare much better than Lewis or Johnson anyday.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps Barnes was not the appropriate choice
But my point was that a winning strategy for Southern states like NC and GA is more heavily weighted on winning urban AND suburban areas while still performing decent in rural areas especially those with AA populations (should try and maximize that obviously).  

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
[ Parent ]
Hagan is a suburban Democrat
and yes she is more liberal than a McIntyre, Etheridge, or Shuler, but not as liberal as a Harvey Gantt or a Durham Democrat (whose council just voted to give all the rights of marriage to gay couples).

Lewis, Johnson, and Cohen would have no chance.  In Tennessee, we need a rural Democrat to win statewide (which means that we likely won't win statewide).  Even a suburban-style Dem like Harold Ford was not enough.  In Georgia, the only way is with a suburban Democrat, although a rural one like Jim Marshall might work too.

But what Dems in the South need to understand is that rural turnout for the Repubs is going to be high. The majority of these people do not believe that Obama was born in the US, and hate his guts, and will vote Repub in large numbers.  The only way to counter that is with strong urban and suburban support.

[ Parent ]
One correction to Tennessee
Phil Bredesen did win statewide, and his politics and background are directly pointed at suburbanites.
[ Parent ]
I cut and paste that line
about Hagan in the wrong spot.  I meant to state that she was exactly the kind of Democrat we should be running in North Carolina.
[ Parent ]
Etheridge IS from the RTP region
He represents a large portion of Wake County, and represented part of Durham County in the 90's. He used to be my congressman, and still sends me a Christmas card every year (I gave his campaign $20 once).

Before his 7 House terms, Etheridge served 8 years as the elected Superintendent of Schools for NC, winning statewide elections in 1988 and 1992. He's been in the House since 1996.

Etheridge could beat Burr and would be competitive in both urban and rural areas of N.C.

[ Parent ]
Etheridge is from a region southeast of RTP
Bob is from the same area of NC as my father.  This area is full of tobacco and conservatives.  While Bob has respresented areaa of RTP in the past, his roots (and home) is not.  But I definitely see your point, and I'm not trying to say you are wrong.  He does represent portions of Wake County, but his strengths is that he can obtain votes from the rural areas of his district, unlike most other Democrats.

Funny thing:  when Etheridge ran against David Funderburke (my own grandmother was good friends with Funderburke's mother, and she still voted for Etheridge!), Funderburke's campaign claimed that Etheridge was a flaming liberal that was going to, and I quote "promote his homosexual agenda".  Etheridge is a guy many people in North Carolina can relate to:  he's a moderate, he's pro-farming, and he knows how to communicate his cultural beliefs without offending anyone.  I think his politics are very close to Kay Hagan, who I personally adore.

[ Parent ]
Obama won NC-2 solely in Wake Co.
He won the Wake Co area of the district by 17.8 K.  He won the district by less than 14 K.
NC
No interest in nominating someone like this would likely lose unless everything was right for us and would likely cause us to lose his House seat as well.  I am more than fine with Marshall or Cunningham.
House seats
I'm more than willing to put a couple more house seats in play if it means we can keep up some serious pressure on the Repubs in the senate.  Since we can't exactly get better Democrats this time around hopefully more Democrats can make up for the failure of this current Senate to do anything worthwhile.  

Of course, if Marshall gets in and shows any kind of good showing before September, Etheridge needs to stay right where he is.  

We do not need another Sestak on our hands damaging our chances to win.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

Marshall is better than Etheridge
but she too is 65.  I'm thinking that Cal Cunningham is our strongest candidate.
[ Parent ]
Age
I actually agree with you on the age issue. Etheridge has built up some decent seniority, having served in the House since 1996.

Found this site earlier (CongressMerge) http://www.congressmerge.com/o...

According to the list, if I am understanding it right, Etheridge is ranked

House Committee on Budget - 11
House Committee on Ways and Means - 23
   Subcommittee on Oversight - 8
   Subcommittee on Trade - 8

Ways and Means (plus the subcommittees) is not that great, but his Budget position is quite nice.

At 65 he'd join the Senate at the very bottom with limited influence. I dunno, just seems like staying in the House he'd be able to do more for his constituents.

[ Parent ]
Some good news, finally
Besides Cooper, Etheridge is the most obvious candidate in the state.  It would be great for him to run.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...
What's our base like here?
Eyeballing the State Senate and State House seats it looks like we're about even or slightly ahead of the Repubs just in terms of legislators who live in the district, but who are the heavy hitters?
President Obama is not running in 2010
While coattails are nice, I don't see the relevance of his vote totals among whites in the rural South.

The name at the top of the ticket in NC will be our Senate candidate, not President Obama.

It is important
opposition to Obama among whites in the rural areas of the South is sky-high, and those whites will take their hatred and anger out on the Democrats on the ballot.  According to recent polling, it is likely that a majority of these people do not believe that Obama was born in the US.
[ Parent ]
It's Republican whites in the rural South, so what?
Not like there have ever been a lot of Obamicons in the South.
[ Parent ]
Turnout matters
If they show up in huge numbers in the midterms, we'll have problems.
[ Parent ]
No
You're assuming these people who did not support Obama will not support any Democrat. That's an assumption that is flat out wrong in Georgia. There are plenty of Democrats who did not support Obama that will vote for Marshall, Bishop, and Barrow.
[ Parent ]
Conservative Democrats maybe
birthers and teabaggers no.  It is the latter that may have  100% turnout, which could drown the rest of the turnout of moderates.  
[ Parent ]
I like Bob Etheridge quite a bit
A little too conservative for my liking, but he's better than most of the alternatives I've heard for this seat.

I remember some scuttlebutt about Rep. Grier Martin running for this seat, whatever happened to that?

NC-Sen, NC-02: Etheridge Taking Another Look at Senate Race | 37 comments

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