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SSP Daily Digest: 8/19

by: James L.

Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 7:26 AM EDT


CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has announced that she's forming an exploratory committee to start raising funds for a possible run against Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer next year. It's still a bit amazing to me that someone like Fiorina, whose management practices were roundly criticized during her troubled leadership of HP, is being considered a serious Senate candidate... but I guess the ability to self-fund a Senate campaign in California buys all the cred you need with the NRSC these days.

FL-Sen: Add another pair of names to the ever-growing list of possible interim Senators under consideration to be appointed by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Crist will interview state Rep. Jennifer Carroll, the sole African-American Republican in the Florida legislature, and University of North Florida President/ex-Jacksonville Mayor John Delaney today.

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Businessman Chris Kennedy, whose interest in running for office next year appeared to be on the wane in recent weeks, announced yesterday that he won't run for the Democratic gubernatorial or Senate nomination next year. That leaves the Senate primary in the hands of state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League President/ex-Blagojevich aide Cherlye Jackson; the gubernatorial nomination is set to be an expensive fight between incumbent Pat Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes.

MD-01: GOP state Sen. E.J. Pipkin, who helped play spoiler in last year's House primary that saw the defeat of incumbent Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, is staying coy about a possible run against Democratic frosh Rep. Frank Kratovil in 2010. Pipkin says that he'll make a decision "relatively soon", but reminds us that the definition of "relatively soon" is highly flexible. National Republicans are currently closing ranks around the man who screwed the pooch for Team Red last year, state Sen. Andy Harris.

NC-08: NRCC recruitment chair Kevin McCarthy is continuing his magical mystery tour of the nation, and is currently scouring the great state of North Carolina in the hopes of wrangling a few challengers in Dem-held districts, including one to challenge class of '08 member Larry Kissell. McCarthy says that he doesn't think the party will fall back on ex-Rep. Robin Hayes, but Hayes himself still says his plans for 2010 are still "undetermined".

NV-03: The NRCC has finally found its huckleberry to challenge freshman Rep. Dina Titus in the Las Vegas suburbs. John Guedry, a former VP at Nevada's City National Bank, filed his statement of candidacy this week to try his hand at this D+2 district. While DC Republicans seem content to run the neophyte Guedry, he may face a contested primary from former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins.

NY-15: State Sen. Bill Perkins is denying reports that he's planning on challenging longtime Democratic Rep. Charlie Rangel in a primary contest next year, saying that a run for Congress is "not on the agenda" right now. Roll Call rattles off a small band of local officeholders who might be interested, though, including NYC Councilwoman Inez Dickens, state Assemblyman Adriano Espaillat, Councilman Robert Jackson, Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV and Assemblyman Keith Wright.

SC-Gov: The crowded race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in South Carolina got slightly leaner this weekend when state House Minority Leader Harry Ott terminated his candidacy. Yesterday, he announced that he's endorsing state Senator Vincent Sheheen for the nod.

UT-Gov: Newly-installed Republican Gov. Gary Herbert faces a special election next year for the right to earn the remainder of Jon Huntsman, Jr.'s term, but the path to get there just got a little bit clearer. Kirk Jowers, a prominent Utah political scientist who had lined up the support of several powerful state legislators (as well as an estimated $6-8 million campaign budget), announced yesterday that he won't challenge Herbert at next May's GOP nominating convention. Herbert could still face a challenge from a number of candidates highlighted by CQ, including two state senators, John Valentine and Steve Urquhart, and state House Speaker David Clark.

WI-03: Roll Call takes a look at the potential field that could emerge if Democratic Rep. Ron Kind bails from the House in order to run for Governor next year. While state Sen. Dan Kapanke is already in the race for the GOP, he could have company in the Republican primary from state Rep. Michael Huebsch and state Rep. Kitty Rhoades. For the Democrats, the early favorite for the nomination appears to be state Rep. Jennifer Shilling, a La Crosse-area pol with some significant fundraising prowess.

James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/19
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Fun fact
If Adam Clayton Powell IV ran against Rangel and beat him (an unlikely outcome), he'd be defeating the man who ousted his grandfather in a primary for the same seat back in 1970.  The younger Powell was eight years old at the time.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

To take that even further ...
A young Charlie Rangel was able to beat Adam Clayton Powell because he had been in office forever, had lost touch with his district, and had gotten into a bunch of ethical trouble, some of it surrouding investments and property in the Caribbean.  Sound familiar?

[ Parent ]
Hmm. The more things change, the more they stay the same


[ Parent ]
.
There is neither present nor future; only the past repeating itself again and again--now.

[ Parent ]
Amazingly enough, this has happened before
In 1968, Mike Gravel defeated octogenarian Senator Ernest Gruening in the Democratic primary for AK-Sen, and went on to win the general election.  Twelve years later, Gravel was defeated in a primary by Gruening's grandson, Clark Gruening, though the younger Gruening lost the general election.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Man
Talk about family payback! LOL

[ Parent ]
I'm monitoring NC-08 closely
My best friend in High School is a hard-line conservative who lives in NC-08.  We are able to discuss openly about politics as long as we don't delve into political philosphy.  However, he has kept me abreast on the Republican recruiting efforts, and in his opinion, Robin Hayes will probably not run in 2010.  The Republicans are trying to convince a couple of NC legislators to enter the race.

Before Robin Hayes, Bill Hefner (D) was the NC-08 rep.  Over the years Hefner had several close calls but was always able to escape defeat.  Kissell will more likely than not have a tough election for 2010.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


Kind
Hopefully Kind can be talked out of running for GOV, we have enough to worry about without another competitive Open Seat.  Lawton is polling well enough and seems like a good candidate.

29/D/Male/NY-01

I disagree.
If Kind thinks he has a good shot he should go for it. WI-03 is a Obama 58% - McCain 42% district; there's no reason we shouldn't hold it.

[ Parent ]
This is not a +16 D
District. Republicans threw in the towel in WI three weeks before the election and with no notable downballot races, I think there's a very good chance that GOP turnout was a bit down. That combined with WI loving Obama, the numbers in this district paint a rosier picture than is really there. Don't get me wrong, we should win this race, but it'd be a dog fight

[ Parent ]
IMO
Kind should feel free (not just in a legal sense, but in every sense) to pursue his dreams. His district is not even leans-GOP. Its either a tossup or leans Dem, and probably leans Dem. Even if it wasnt its unfair to expect someone to be 'bound' to their district until they reach retirement age just out of fear it may flip. And kind of unfair for certain people in the Dem establishment (not saying you, of course) to beg 'rising stars' to run, for the House, in the first place but then turn around and say 'no, you shouldnt feel free to do what you want'. I understand the others argument and certainly not singling you out. Not by any means.  

[ Parent ]
I hope Kind waits for Senator
He could win the Gov seat, but the Senate is much more important.

As I noted in another thread, while District 3 is one without a large urban area of support, Kind is a good guy who can appeal to voters in the 6th, 7th and 8th districts, but he's done his work on a federal, so the jump to the state level really takes him off his logical career path.

He's the obvious choice to replace Kohl, but there is nothing obvious about him being a better fit than Lawton.


[ Parent ]
If he runs for Senate
He's also got the possibility of a primary against Tammy Baldwin. And that's an uphill primary race. Just the simple demographics make it difficult enough, but when you take into account that many primary voters will be more aligned with her ideologically and also because of her profile she'll get lots of national money, all he's left with is the electability argument and that's always a tricky argument to make especially in this situation.  

[ Parent ]
Kind beats Baldwin
Baldwin would have a hard time statewide against someone like Ryan.  "Madison Democrat" are not music to the ears of the people of Green Bay, Racine, Oshkosh and La Crosse.  They'll vote for liberal Democrats, but they sure are more likely to embraced if they are from somewhere other than Madison.

That's Kind's Senate seat if he wants it.


[ Parent ]
I agree that
Baldwin would lose to Ryan, I've made detailed posts about that subject in the past. But in terms of a Baldwin-Kind primary race, she's going to be the heavy favorite. Almost 1/3 of the votes Obama got in 08 were from Milwaukee and Madison and she'll probaly destroy him in those areas. Plus, I don't see Kind using terms like "Madison liberal" in the primary because he knows that he's going to need those votes in the GE. And that's not even mentioning that she's probably going to have an unlimited supply of money.

[ Parent ]
Fiorina
Whitman is much more formidable in the gubernatorial race. Though I think Jerry Brown will end up winning quite comfortably.

Fiorina
Yeah, especially when Boxer and the DSCC start pointing out all the jobs Fiorina cut and all the jobs she sent overseas as CEO.
Plus that she was basically fired from her job. And yet got a severance worth many many millions of $$$.
Just what can she run on, other than 100% negative? I can see the ads already: San Francisco libural. Socialist. Out-of-touch. Blah blah.

[ Parent ]
Didn't Fiorina
blow her top one time at an HP video conference or something? Or am I thinking of something else entirely?

BTW, just to update y'all on what's been happening with me...

Alas, law school did not work out, much to my disappointment. I then applied for a Masters in Political Science at the University of Akron, but up until 2 days ago, I had not heard from him. That feeling of limbo combined with the series of unnerving political news to leave me feeling discouraged enough to consider self-imposed exile. Then...I was accepted! And not only that, a letter to the editor that I had written to counter-act a particularly offensive rightwing rant in The Vindicator was published yesterday. Needless to say, I'm feeling energized and feisty now. :-)

BTW, where's ArkDem? I miss his analysis and his song posts.


[ Parent ]
Congratulations
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Thanks!
It's been a topsy-turvy summer, but I'm back on my feet and ready to kick some pachyderms!

[ Parent ]
I need help on NJ newspapers
I need to pick and choose.

Which are worth reading?
Which are pro democrat?
Which are pro republican?


NJ papers
The New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer are actually the most imprtant newspapers, although at least two other local papers have more circulation within New Jersey.  Local news (county and municipalities) is mostly confined to Jersey papers if it makes them.  A murder up the block was reported on blogs, two days later made NY City broadcast TV, and finally made "local" newspapers the next day.  Lesser news is uncovered.

The two big circulation newspapers based in New Jersey are the Newark Star-Ledger (nj.com along with other papers) and the Record (formerly the Bergen Record) at northjersy.com.  The Star-Ledger is traditionally a Democratic paper and the Record is traditionally Republican but each have modified towards a mushy middle and I'd say each is pro-Republkican (at least for the Governor's race).

The Star Ledger's leading political columnist these days is Paul Mulshine, an extreme right-wing hack.  The Star Ledger really dislikes Corzine.  He put his money into NYC and Philly network and/or broadcast TV.  Codey is a local Essex County pol who has good communication with the few renaining Star Ledger reporters and Corzine is not too forthcoming.  They have been touting Christie for years.

Aside from the Philly papers, the Asbury Park/Atlantic City Press is possibly the best bet for south Jersey and not too good at that.  The other local papers in north Jersey like the Jersey Journal (Jersey City) are not too hot.  At one point both Blue Jersey and Politicker.NJ seemed to be filling the gap. When Juan Melli left Blue Jersey for Politicker.NJ it was a real blow to Democratic coverage in the state.  


[ Parent ]

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