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NE-Sen: Bruning To Officially Announce Bid Thursday

by: DaveSund

Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 7:25 PM EDT


(While I'm reticent to call Bruning the "early favorite", this has the potential to be one of the quirkiest Senate races of the cycle. - promoted by James L.)

As expected, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is ready to officially get in the race this week.

Omaha World-Herald:

It looks like Jon Bruning's days of exploring a 2008 U.S. Senate bid are coming to an end.

Bruning, who has printed campaign posters touting "Bruning, United States Senate," plans to hold a press conference Thursday at the State Capitol to talk about his political future.

All signs - including recent public comments from Bruning - indicate that the second-term attorney general will officially get into the race, setting the stage for a possible primary challenge against fellow Republican and incumbent Sen. Chuck Hagel.

Hagel, who has angered many rank-and-file party members with his Iraq war criticism, has not announced whether he will run for a third term. He plans to make his decision later this fall.

Bruning, however, has given strong indications that he will run since forming an exploratory committee earlier this spring.

He has hired several campaign workers and his campaign office in Lincoln has been busy, raising money and calling supporters.

Bruning has to be the early favorite to get the Republican nomination - perhaps even if Hagel decides to run. The longer Hagel waits, the more support he will drain. His March 12 press conference was a huge strategic blunder.

Meanwhile, the rumblings of a potential Bob Kerrey Senate bid are getting stronger. Outside of Iraq - where Kerrey managed to piss off quite a few Democrats in the last couple of weeks - Kerrey's actually a very good Democrat for Nebraska. What's more, in a race against Jon Bruning, I'm fairly certain that he would win quite handily.

June 23rd, Kerrey is headlining the Nebraska Democrats' annual Morrison-Exon dinner.

DaveSund :: NE-Sen: Bruning To Officially Announce Bid Thursday
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Dem nominee?
What kind of terms are Fahey and Kerrey on?  I know that they'll both stay out if Hagel stays in (seems more unlikely with every passing day), but is there a possibility that they'd both jump in?  I know that Fahey is who the DSCC has sought out as the Dem nominee if it's open, but I guess Kerrey would have a lot of pull in the event of that happening.

You seem pretty certain that Bruning is the nominee in a GOP primary, do you think all the Congresscritters stay out of it?  I guess Daub jumps in, but he doesn't seem to be too formidable.


I don't think Fahey's running
The DSCC recruited him hard, but there's a lot of animosity by the rest of the state toward Omaha, and Fahey would rather run for a third term than risk losing an expensive Senate race.

Every indication I've gotten in the last week from sources inside and outside of the party is that Kerrey's going to run.

The likelihood of a primary battle in Nebraska is slim to none. About the only place I'm hearing a rumor of a primary is in NE-02, and even then I think that will only happen if it's an open seat (which seems unlikely at this stage). If it is an open seat, I wouldn't be surprised to see Omaha City Council President Dan Welch (R) get in the race.

Lee Terry's gotten money from every potential Republican Senate candidate at this point. Daub, Raimondo, and Bruning all gave him significant contributions. They would not have done so if they had any thoughts that he might run for Senate.

Jeff Fortenberry could possibly run, as he's still a relatively new Congressman. If that happens, I think the likely Republican nominee in NE-01 would be Speaker of the Legislature Mike Flood. I have no clue who the Democrats would pick, but the prospects for an open seat would be much better.

Other than that, Raimondo's got a lot of money, so he might make a race of it. But Bruning's really made some slick political moves over the last three months to solidify his position. I think the only one who could knock him out of the frontrunner's seat is Mike Johanns, but he doesn't seem interested in running.


[ Parent ]
Gotcha
So, in the event of a Kerrey v. Bruning race, you give Kerrey the nod?  In the (hopefully unlikely, lol) event that Kerrey and Fahey both decline, who would Dems look for?  Or do you really feel like Kerrey is in (if Hagel's out) and we won't have to worry about?

Thanks again for keeping us all updated on NE happenings!


[ Parent ]
I think...
Kerrey's likely in at this point. Not a whole lot of solid info, but enough hints have been dropped that I feel confident saying it. Probably the only thing that would stop him would be if Hagel ran...

Kerrey vs. Bruning, I think Kerrey would have the early edge. This is a pretty solid Republican state, but many of these folks have voted for Bob Kerrey three times (once for Governor, twice for Senate). He's a very credible statewide candidate. Bruning hasn't been challenged significantly in years. I think he'll be in for a rude awakening.


[ Parent ]
Will Bob Kerrey have a John Breaux problem?
in regards to where he lives and where he is registered to vote?

I know that he won't have a problem with the legality of running. But that might be a campaign attack.

If the 2008 race is Chuck Hagel v. Bob Kerrey, how does that rank amongst clashes between heavyweights in Nebraska history?

I know Hagel is a possible candidate to retire, but if both him and Kerrey run, then it's a big big clash.


[ Parent ]
Don't think that will happen
I believe Kerrey's ass has already endorsed Hagel, in the event he runs for re-elect, so it's probably safe to assume he only jumps in if Hagel retires or runs for President.

[ Parent ]
Stranger things have happened.
As I recall, only a few months ago, Bruning himself was saying "I'm a Hagel guy."

[ Parent ]
NYC
Bob Kerrey's been living in New York for the past however many years - and we all know how that plays in the heartland. Hell, he even spent a day toying with a run for NYC mayor! (Thank god he got over that delusion quickly.) So while the GOP can't claim he's "gone Washington" ala Breaux, he can surely be hit up as an east coast elitist liberal. Then again, he would be even if he'd never left NE.

[ Parent ]
True...
Though the "liberal" charge is going to be a bit tougher to stick with his actions over the past couple weeks. And say what you will about Kerrey, but he never backs down from a fight.

I've expressed some of the same concerns as you, sometimes a little too vocally for my own good, but I would wholeheartedly support Kerrey if he decided to run. There's no denying that of the options we've got right now, he's one of the best.


[ Parent ]
Yup
I agree with Dave that Kerrey probably stands a better chance as a statewide candidate than Fahey.  I'd like to see Fahey challenge Lee Terry, but that's another ballgame. 
Kerrey's residency status is an interesting question, but if he can get past that he could play well.  He can push the 9/11 commission recommendations for improving national security, which should play well with disaffected Republicans.
I don't know if I'd call him a favorite, but he's probably the best chance for Dems.  A lot also depends on the Republican presidential nominee and if that candidate drives or depresses turnout.

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