IL-Sen: Kirk Posts Slim Lead Over Giannoulias in Rasmussen Poll

Rasmussen Reports (8/11, likely voters):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38

Mark Kirk (R): 41

Other: 4

Undecided: 17

Cheryle Jackson (D): 30

Mark Kirk (R): 47

Other: 6

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Both Kirk and Giannoulias post reasonably good, but probably inflated, favorability ratings: Kirk’s at 55-28 while Giannoulias has a comparable 51-33 rating. Somehow I doubt that either of these dudes are that well-known statewide, but this inflated name rec issue seems to be par for the course at Rasmussen’s shop.

Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight recently had a very good post about the likely voter models currently employed by many pollsters, and the aggressively selective model used by Rasmussen in particular. In short, Nate views Rasmussen’s model as close to a worst-case scenario for Democrats. However, I think we may need to prepare for the possibility that the worst — or something in its realm — could come to fruition next year.

RaceTracker Wiki: IL-Sen

41 thoughts on “IL-Sen: Kirk Posts Slim Lead Over Giannoulias in Rasmussen Poll”

  1. Giannoulias attracts only 63% of Dems, giving him more room to grow than Kirk, who has 71% of Republicans.  On the other hand Kirk does very well among independents, 45% to 18%.  

    The independent number looks way to high for Kirk, but if it’s a bad year guess it could look somewhat like that.  But as long as Kirk doesn’t demonstrate a lot of cross over appeal and the remaining independents break reasonably evenly Giannoulias should win.  

  4. Just remember rasmussen just had Specter down by 12 and R2K had him up by 5, Giannoulias being down by 3 probably means Giannoulias is up by 14. In addition, its a bad sign that Kirk is under 50% against Cheryle Jackson.

  5. There are three possible scenarios for how this election turns out.

    1. Cardin vs Steele

    2. Menedez vs Kean

    3. Klobuchar vs Kennedy

    I mention the third because I think it might go like that. Everyone predicted the the Klobuchar vs Kennedy race would be a very costly and close election. The first few polls appeared like that. Then Amy Klobuchar surged and surged and surged in the polls and eventually crushed Mark Kennedy by 20%. I think that could be the case here, Giannoulias has room to surge and surge and surge in the polls.

  7. However, I think we may need to prepare for the possibility that the worst — or something in its realm — could come to fruition next year.

    When did you become such a Debbie Downer James?  This comes off you saying how bad things will be for team blue over in the Daily Digest pertaining to the NC race, which was certainly more of a direct Debbie Downer sentiment and could be disputed while this quote is ambiguous and goes both ways.  (There is certainly plenty of reason though to be down on our chances so Im not discounting this sentiment, more so just asking.)

    The healthcare debate sure is hurting and Obama saying a public option is no longer needed is certainly putting the Dems on the defense but it will still be all about the economy and if that is going ok, the American public will clearly be more trusting of the Democrats.  Guess we’ll have to wait and see!

  8. As pessimistic as I may even be, I find it extremely hard to believe we will lose this seat.  If we do lose this, We can expect to lose a net 4-5 seats in the Senate, something I don’t see happening.

  9. However, I think we may need to prepare for the possibility that the worst — or something in its realm — could come to fruition next year.

    In all likelyhood though the worst case for the Democrats still will probably have them in control with healthy margins. 58 or so in the Senate, probably around 2005 GOP House numbers.

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