As I also noted in desmoinesdem's diary

One of the reasons that wanted to run for a third term is probably because he didn't think Lawton could win statewide.  I don't know for sure what he is thinking of course, but my guess is that he thinks that if he let Lawton take over now, it might be just enough of a boost to win the primary but lose the general.  

And,this decision will now set off some dominoes in WI-3 and state legislative seats within WI-3.  Ron Kind was already facing his toughest challenger yet--GOP State Senator Dan Kapanke's Senate district is actually more Democratic than WI-3.   Kapanke has managed to win a 62% Democratic district twice despite being very conservative.  

If Kapanke wins WI-3, however, the silver lining for Democrats is that there would then be a special election for his senate seat, one that they would have a very good chance of winning.  

---

by: ajwagner @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 04:11:27 AM UTC

This June poll, reported earlier, shows that Lawton

has a better favorable to unfavorable ratio than Doyle:
Lawton: 35% favorable, 17% unfavorable
Doyle: 42% favorable, 48% unfavorable

Lawton is viewed favorably by all demo groups except Republicans. She has a 32-13 favorability rating among independents.

Lawton beats Walker and Neumann in head to heads and only loses to Tommy Thompson, who is unlikely to run, by 2 points.

Kind and other possible Dem candidates were not included in the poll. But, based on the above numbers, there is no urgent need at this point for Kind or anyone else to jump in.  A September 2010 primary would not be helpful, either.

http://www.dailykos.com/statep...

---

by: DCal @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 05:21:57 AM UTC

Kind running wouldn't make much sense

He's safe in his district -- "toughest challenger" is relative, he's perfectly safe in 2010.  His work has been pointing to a Senate seat when Kohl retires.  Running for Gov then immediately for the Senate would be a pretty bad choice.

Glad to see Doyle go before he became Pat Lucey and overstayed his welcome.

---

by: tommypaine @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 06:14:43 AM UTC

What happened with Lucey?

I know he had rocky relationships with other prominent WI Dems at the time (Proxmire and maybe Nelson), but what exactly happened.

On a separate note, I think Kind would make a solid, if not better, successor to Kohl. Plus, coming from a largely rural district will help him counterract the expected charge of being a Madison-Milwaukee liberal (though I don't know if that epithet still carries the same punch anymore).

---

by: corran horn @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 12:37:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kind would move that seat to the right

Kind has always been chummy with business interests and has been a consistent vote for the war, even more so than Kohl. Herb Kohl is far enough to the right as it is. I want to see Tammy Baldwin run for his seat.

---

by: gpack3 @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 16:02:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I could be wrong, but

I think Tammy Baldwin running for Kohl's seat would be an excellent way of getting us Senator Paul Ryan.  

Sure, she nearly always wins WI-2 by large margins... but the flip side of that is that she nearly always wins the district by a lesser margin than the statewide candidate does.  

In terms of female candidates that might actually play well statewide, Donna Seidel and Julie Lassa come to mind.  Maybe Kristen Dexter, Penny Bernard Schaber, or Ann Hraychuck in a few years.  Bernard Schaber just won a seat that hadn't gone Democratic since the 1920's.  

If Kind wins the governor's race I wouldn't be surprised to see Kohl just run for re-election in 2012 and buy the Dem bench another 6 years to develop.  

---

by: ajwagner @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 17:39:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wrong

in terms of presidential numbers, Baldwin wins her district by nearly the exact same numbers in at least Presidential races.

2008  Baldwin 69-31
2008 Obama 69-30
2004 Baldwin- 63-37
2004 Kerry- 62-37

A point off each time with Obama winning the state as a whole by 14% and Kerry only by 1%.

Hell, that's almost a good enough reason to run her.

As for the 2006 Governor's race,  Doyle won the state by 8% while Baldwin got the same  percentage she got in 2004 when Kerry won the state by 1%.  Safe bet Doyle outdid her that year.  

---

by: Andrew @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 22:31:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It depends what kind of year 2012 is

If it is like 2008, Baldwin would beat Ryan, and probably with room to spare.  If it is more like 2004 or worse, Ryan would win.

---

by: JSmith @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 00:45:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Paul Ryan

I'm hearing he's planning to run for president in '12.

---

by: gpack3 @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 03:28:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As a Congressman?

Good luck with that. I doubt he'd even win Wisconsin if he won the nomination.

---

by: fitchfan28 @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 03:53:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually...

It's probably more of a "running for VP" thing, if it's true. He would make a decent candidate FWIW. He's out there enough as a conservative that he could appeal to the base, but he's not a wild-eyed crazy that scares off swing voters.

I hope he does get it into his head to be president. He's the only Republican who'd have a chance at Herb Kohl's Senate seat.

---

by: gpack3 @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 05:00:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

And I've made pretty thorough posts in the past about why I believe Ryan would defeat Baldwin, and I'll re-post that right here.

There are 3 reasons why I think Ryan would beat her.

She's gay and while I don't think this is a disqualifier by itself, there are definitely portions of this state that are traditionally democratic but are socially conservative. In 06, the gay marriage ban passed overwhelmingly 58-41 while the Dem Governor won handily.

The other, and IMO most significant, reason is that she's from Madison. This is problematic for a couple of reasons. One being strictly political which is that she's not going to significantly over perform a generic dem in her CD. And a guy like Ryan who is from a swing district will overperform a generic GOP candidate. Also the state of Wisconsin has a very ambivalent relationship with Madison. The state's best university is located there, and people from all corners of the state try to send their kids there. But the culture of Madison is very different from the rest of the state and there is some animosity towards the city. In the 2006 WI AG race, the main reason Kathleen Falk lost is because she's from Madison.

The final being my own personal experience with these two. I've lived in Kenosha for more than 10 years and I just graduated from UW-Madison, so I don't think there are two members of Congress I know better. I've been to multiple speeches and town hall sessions for each, I've had dinner with Baldwin and interviewed Ryan. With that experience, I have to confess that I think he's a better speaker, a better debater and a much better campaigner than her.

All in all, I think she could win but if she did, she'd have to show me something I have yet to see or it would be attributable primarily to Obama's coattails. In terms of other candidates, I think if Steve Kagen was able to get his diarrhea of the mouth problem fixed he'd be a solid candidate, but I think the absolute strongest candidate would be Ron Kind although he's a bit more on the moderate side than Baldwin.

---

by: safi @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 14:00:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very well put.

I have a lot of relatives in Wisconsin so I've spent more time there than any other state (except NJ, of course). Obviously there is a general progressive slant in Wisconsin, but I think on social issues conservatives have a powerful presence. Although it's certainly not Bible-belt country, there are plenty of religious folks who wouldn't dream of voting for someone who was pro-gay-marriage, much less a lesbian. Now they might be the minority, but that vote shouldn't be written off. I hate to say it, but in most states openly gay politicians aren't on the same playing field as everyone else. Sure, Baldwin has been elected and re-elected time and time again, but keep in mind she comes from a rather liberal district (mainly because of Madison). Wisconsin might be a blue state, but it's not a state where Democrats can expect to nominate a lesbian and win, in my opinion.

Ultimately, you hit the nail on the head when you said the culture of Madison differs from the culture of the state. That's the bottom line, and that's why Rep. Baldwin can win again and again in WI-2 but not in Wisconsin statewide.

My two cents.

---

by: NJCentrist @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 18:27:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I disagree

On the gay thing, it's interesting that you'd bring up the 06 amendment vote, because she significantly over-performed "No" in the non-Madison parts of her district (interestingly, she underperformed No in Dane County). I also organized for Obama in the rural parts of her district and she's plenty popular even there.
I don't dispute that because she's a lesbian, she'd do worse than another Democrat could, but she'd hardly be unelectable. It's the classic tradeoff; how much are you will to sacrifice in progressivism in the name of electability?

As for the Madison thing, it didn't stop Jim Doyle or Russ Feingold, who have eight statewide election victories between them. I don't have any polling data to support this, but I suspect that Madison hatred is dying out with the cohort that lived through the sixties. It will always have a reputation as being more liberal than the rest of the state, of course, but my sense is that it's not the boogeyman it once was, and will become less so over time. Also, the fact that Tammy Baldwin has represented the UW for basically her entire political career, from the county board to the State Assembly to the House, means that the state is full of her former constituents. So having represented Madison isn't all downside.

My personal experience with Tammy is that she's a great retail campaigner. She's the most charming politician I've ever met, actually, and I've met a few.

Honestly, if it means I can have Sen. Baldwin, I don't care whose coattails it would be attributed to. And I'm confident that she has her constituent relations chops are strong enough to get her re-elected in non-presidential years. That's what has kept her running strong in the non-Madison parts of her district.

---

by: gpack3 @ Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 05:12:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

One thing I forgot to mention...

Kathleen Falk lost in 06 because turnout was down in Madison. A lot of Madison liberals never got over her beating Peg Lautenschlager in the primary.

---

by: gpack3 @ Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 05:20:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lucey: "the dope traffic goes both ways"

Pat Lucey was wildly unpopular as Governor, among Democrats.

Jimmy Carter apppointed him Ambassador to Mexico, leading to one of the best political insults of all time:

"Appointig Pat Lucey Ambassador to Mexico ensures that the dope traffic goes both ways."

Lucey eventually left the Dem party and ran as John Anderson's Vice-presidential candidate.  It's a shame because along with Proxmire, Nelson and Bronson La Follette he is largely responsible for the emergence of the Democratic party in the state.  Time passed him by though.

---

by: tommypaine @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 23:57:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kapanke is easily Kind's toughest challenger

That's not to say that Kind is in any real danger if he stays in WI-3.  It is to say that his seat is in real danger if Kind runs for Governor, which many in Wisconsin think he will.  

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kind run for Governor in 2010, and Kohl run for re-election in 2012.  Then, after two terms as Governor, Kind could step down and run for the Senate in 2018.  

---

by: ajwagner @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 17:44:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jim Doyle made the right decision

I think that Jim Doyle made the right decision, generally a sitting governor's approval rating should be at least in the mid 50s if they want to run for a third term. I think that Barbara Lawton will probably run and Ron Kid won't challenge her in the primary. Lawton should be able to beat Kathleen Falk and Tom Barrett in the primary and has stong enough approval ratings to be favored in the general election. If Lawton runs she will be one of three new prospective woman gubernatorial candidates the others being Diane Denish in New Mexico and Alex Sink in Florida.

---

by: jmartin4s @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 08:03:17 AM UTC

Actually there are others, even among Dems

Jari Askins in OK, Margaret Anderson Kelliher in MN, Dawn Hill in ME, Susan Bysiewicz in CT, Kim McMillan in TN, and probably Barbara Buckley in NV.  All of these are strong candidates, and some (Askins and Bysiewicz at least) are probably favored to win their respective nominations.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 09:27:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Askins favored in OK?

How? 1 term Lt. Gov who won in the 2006 sweep vs. the 4 term AG. Please, I would love an explanation on this one.

Also, I doubt you could call ANYONE a frontrunner in ME or MN. Too many candidates in still forming fields on both of those states.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 17:24:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I tend to see

Lt. Governors as automatic frontrunners, just as sitting VPs are automatic frontrunners when they run for President.  It's very rare for a Lt. Governor to lose a primary, unless they're an idiot like Andre Bauer -- and even then he's got a really good chance.

I grant that it's probably about even with Edmonson, but if I had to pick a frontrunner, it would be Askins.

As for ME and MN, I didn't say they were frontrunners.  In ME Hill is technically a frontrunner because no one else is in the race right now, but I wasn't making that argument.  I also think that, for instance, Margaret Kelliher has a very slim chance in MN.  I'd put my money on Entenza, Rybak, or (gulp) Mark Dayton in that race.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 19:53:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oklahoma and Minnesota

I think that Jeri Askins and Margaret Kelliher would make very weak candidates and thus will probably not make it through the primary. Right now I'm predicting that the nomimees will be Drew Edmonson and Mark Dayton.  

---

by: jmartin4s @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 20:17:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mark Dayton is the only Dem

I think would lose in 2010.

---

by: JSmith @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 21:22:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MAK has a great shot though

at the endorsement.  She wouldnt have given up her speakership after only having it for 3 sessions so far if she wasnt confident in getting a ton from her state legislators, as they all have super delegate status at the convention.  

What makes me a bit leery is that she got pwned by Pawlenty with fixing the budget.  

---

by: Andrew @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 22:34:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And from an on the ground perspective

she gets a lot of negative feedback on the MN blogs with the budget blow up being the main cited instance.  It's probably at least 2-1 against her.  Rybak, Coleman, Entenza, and then a dark horse like Thissen are mainly viewed as the top competition.  (Dayton is hardly ever mentioned.)

Sorry, this thread got kind of hijacked.

---

by: Andrew @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 22:37:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is Steve Kelly

Considered in the game at all?  I know he's run and lost in the primaries more than once, but I always found him to be a very thoughtful, innovative person.  Maybe the type that would be a better governor than a candidate?

---

by: IndianaProgressive @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 22:47:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's one of the other dark horses somewhat mentioned

But other than a few comments here and there, he's hardly mentioned.

I cant remember the poll but I believe some polling firm tested all the DFL competitors vs Pawlenty before he retired and he was the only one they left off.  Indicative?  Meh, maybe.  Out of the dozen or so, he is one of four that have run statewide before and he didnt get creamed like Marty, retire in shame like Dayton, and wasn't forced out of the race due to scandal like Entenza.  (Although Kelley didnt win the primary race he was in for.)

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 03:38:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lt. Governors and Gov Primaries

I can think of at least two relatively recent examples of when a Lieutenant Governor lost a gubernatorial primary.  John Carney lost to Delaware State Treasurer Jack Markell in 2008.  Dennis Wicker lost to North Carolina Attorney General Mike Easley in 2000.  (The Charlotte Observer, in today's paper, lists Wicker as interested in taking on Richard Burr for Burr's Senate seat.)  John Garamendi would have been decimated if he had stayed in the 2010 California gubernatorial primary.

---

by: mdouglas @ Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 20:39:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Barrett

Recently committed a very heroic act. At a state fairgrounds, or somewhere, he intervened on behalf of a woman he didnt even know when she was being threatened or abused or something (the article didnt really say what he was doing). He got hit with a freakin pipe by the guy but he scared him away after he punched him. I bet all that definitely helps his image! Alot of guys would have called the cops, too, Im sure...but most would have just hid behind another car when calling because they "didnt want to get involved".  

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 10:05:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tom Barrett

Apparently the other potential candidate Tom Barrett is in the news, I dont know how this affects the race.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...

---

by: jmartin4s @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 06:26:18 AM UTC

Sounds to me like he just became Governor

Weird as it is, it's a good addition to a resume.

---

by: tommypaine @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 06:33:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sounds like a good candidate to me

I don't know how the rest of WI views Milwaukee, but being mayor of the state's largest city provides a very strong base of support. Plus, there's the executive experience, and the fact that he can cancel out any advantage Scott Walker has from being Milwaukee's County Exec.

From what I know about his previous bid for governor, it seems his biggest weakness was in Madison and outstate WI. He'll definitely have to work on that, but it's doable.

A story like this can only help, IMO.

---

by: corran horn @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 12:44:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Weakness in Madison

The 02 primary was a three way race between Doyle, Barrett, and Kathleen Falk, the Dane County Executive. Under the circumstances, it's understandable that he'd do poorly in Madison. In a Kind-Lawton-Barrett race, Madison would be the swing area, funnily enough.

---

by: gpack3 @ Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 05:16:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]