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FL-Sen, FL-21: Crist Hoping to Lure Rubio into Diaz-Balart's Seat?

by: James L.

Sat Aug 15, 2009 at 12:45 AM EDT


With the news that Charlie Crist has asked GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart to submit his application for the state's Senate vacancy created by outgoing Sen. Mel Martinez, there has been a lot of debate over just how seriously we should be taking this news. Roll Call finds a pretty major (and clever) wrinkle in the situation -- namely, that Charlie Crist may be hoping to create a House vacancy that would be too tempting to pass down for his primary opponent, Marco Rubio:

Some GOP insiders speculated that appointing Lincoln Diaz-Balart would create a House vacancy and special election that might be a tempting proposition for former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who is challenging Crist in the Senate primary. Rubio has repeatedly said he is in the Senate race to stay, but his former House district overlaps with Lincoln Diaz-Balart's 21st district.

Rubio spokesman Alex Burgos said late Friday that his boss's efforts remain focused on only one race. "Marco Rubio is a candidate for the U.S. Senate. It's not only Washington or bust for him, it's also U.S. Senate or bust," Burgos said in an e-mailed statement.

I have to hand it to Crist -- if his intention is to lure Rubio into another race entirely, then he certainly knows how to play chess, not checkers. And if I were Rubio, I don't think I could pass up an opportunity to have what would probably be a clear shot at a seat in Congress over an extremely tough Senate primary.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-Sen | FL-21
James L. :: FL-Sen, FL-21: Crist Hoping to Lure Rubio into Diaz-Balart's Seat?
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FL-Sen, FL-21: Crist Hoping to Lure Rubio into Diaz-Balart's Seat? | 28 comments
FL-21 open seat
Could Raul Martinez beat Marco Rubio in a FL-21 open seat race? Martinez lost to LDB 58-42, but this time will be different because there is no incumbent and Rubio is more conservative than LDB.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
Raul Martinez is not the guy we want
All Rubio has to do is play grainy footage of Martinez beating up a kid and then covering it up, and the election is over.  Hell, I'd even vote for Rubio under those circumstances.

We have a real shot at FL-21 as an open seat, but Martinez cannot be the candidate.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
And then Mr. Diaz-Balart decides he enjoys being in the Senate
and runs in the primary against Crist and Rubio. Oops!
Rather doubtful, if he agreed to be a placeholder.
Going back on a deal like that burns a lot of bridges with political allies.
[ Parent ]
But that might be helpful to Crist, too
While it would require him to run against an incumbent, he gets the benefit of having the conservative and Cuban vote split.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
placeholder
I thought Crist wanted a placeholder who would agree not to run in 2010. Lincoln is only 55 so you wouldn't expect him to retire in only 2 years. And he doesn't have anywhere else to go if Rubio takes his House seat. I think it would be smart for Crist to appoint 78 year old Congressman Bill Young.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
You're right until the very end
The base would be pissed if he a. appoints someone sorta moderate and b. seriously jeopardizes a seat. A Rep. Charlie Justice (D-Saint Petersburg) would be absolutely awful for Crist's election prospects.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Another way of looking at it
Lincoln Diaz-Balart could simply not run for re-election in 2010, even publicly deferring to Crist (giving an argument that hes supported his candidacy since before the appointment) and then just run in 2012 against Nelson.  
[ Parent ]
Should have also added...
That being an ex-Senator would help him in any potential 2012 GOP primary. As opposed to being a House member. True hed still probably have a tough primary but itd be easier for him if he were an ex-Senator.
[ Parent ]
But who the hell knows
If hed have a tough primary then. Katherine Harris sure as hell didnt, despite all her baggage and unpopularity in FL at large.
[ Parent ]
Puzzled
I'm still a bit puzzled as to why Lincoln Diaz-Balart would even consider it. One thing I wonder right away is how often has this occurred in the past. It just seems to be a very unique situation.

So far I've seen lobbying mentioned, and the possibility that Diaz-Balart's seat could eventually become a Democratic takeover as early as 2010 or 2012.

Still though, it seems odd for him to bail out like that.

I might be way off with this, but wasn't there some speculation in 2008 that LDB was very unhappy being in Congress now? Not unhappy enough to retire but just pure frustrated due to being in the minority party? I did a quick Google search and found nothing so maybe I am thinking of someone else.

Making lots of money lobbying
I don't know if Lincoln Diaz-Balart enjoys being in Congress or not, but there is plenty of precedent for folks leaving to make big money on K Street instead of having to go home and work to get re-elected. Trent Lott, Chip Pickering, Dick Armey, Tom Downey, Vic Fazio, Howard Baker,  Rick Lazio, Al D'Amato,Bob Packwood, Birch Bayh,  Billy Tauzin, John Breaux, Dale Bumpers, Ron Dellums,  Bob Dole, and scores of other ex members of the Senate and House have built lucrative careers as lobbyists.

If LDB were to have 1 1/2 years of Senate time under his belt, in addition to his years in the House, he could be a very marketable commodity in DC. That would be the strongest motivation for him to take the offer.

It would certainly be smart for Crist to appoint a Cuban conservative to the seat in terms of winning the primary, and if Rubio were to jump to the Congressional race even better for Crist.

(I wonder if Rubio were to leave the race will another right-winger jump in to challenge Crist in the primary? It seems there would be an opening there, although the cost of a Florida primary against a heavily favored Governor might clear the field for Crist.)

[ Parent ]
No
I wasn't referring to ex-members of Congress becoming lobbyists, that's a common occurrence, lol.

I meant how often has a sitting Governor running for a Senate seat, appointed a sitting House member (who has endorsed him campaign) that is still fairly young and does not seem to be retiring soon to fill said Senate seat.

[ Parent ]
FL
I see zero chance of LDB being really considered or thinking about accepting.  Crist is likely just trying to give token lip service to the Cuban community.  Crist knows that seat would most likely be lost and LDB would probably not be conservative enough for the Rubio crowd.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Agreed
Though the possibility of setting him up for a run at Bill Nelson in 2012 is intriguing.
[ Parent ]
Hard to imagine Bill Nelson losing

[ Parent ]
Nelson actually was vulnerable in 2006.
He just got a lucky break in Harris.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
That's the CW
But I'm a) not even sure it was true then, and b) am sure it's even less true now. His approvals are good.
[ Parent ]
Gotta agree
I suspect Nelson will be fine, barring some bizarrely bad national year for Dems.
[ Parent ]
Florida
sort of changed over the last four years. The first part of the decade, Republicans were tightening their grip on the sunshine state. Hopefully Alex Sink wins and Kendrick Meek is the benefactor of a potentially nasty primary between Crist and Rubio.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Meek still has to win his own primary
The primary should be a real battle if Rep. Corrine Brown actually decides to run (she's formed an exploratory committee). But Meek already faces the former mayor of North Miami, Kevin Burns, and a host of minor candidates. Anyone know anything about Burns?
[ Parent ]
I can't remember the last time we saw a poll of Nelson's approval ratings
What were they and when/ what was the poll?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Q Poll asked in June
here. He's just below 50%, but his net favorables are very good.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Pretty surprising that after almost nine years so many people don't have an opinion of him.  If Diaz-Balart thinks that a brief tenure in the Senate will give him the name recognition to take on Nelson he's probably wrong.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Why Diaz-Balart would want this....
Yes, his district may or may not be trending Dem fast:(hispanics are soon realizing how crazy the current crop of GOP voters are OR Obama may have had special appeal to GOP voting Cubans as a minority than previous white Dems). But I suspect one other reason may be the expectation that Bill Nelson may not run for re-election in 2012, so maybe this will be a way to get his name out and from a short but conservative voting record, it may earn him enough chits to win the GOP primary.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
Why would anybody want to be a (R) House member?
Bleech.  I see Rep House members looking for exit strategies all over the place.

Both options, of lobbying or taking on Nelson would seem like a day at Disneyland compared to serving in the House.

[ Parent ]
Disneyland?
Come on now, this is Florida. Gotta be Disney World.  ;-)

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Yeah!
For any of California's GOP House members, lobbying or taking on Boxer would be a day at Disneyland compared to serving in the House! (Or Knott's Berry Farm or Sea World! :D)

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
FL-Sen, FL-21: Crist Hoping to Lure Rubio into Diaz-Balart's Seat? | 28 comments

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