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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Aug 14, 2009 at 5:02 PM EDT


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 43 comments
AZ-08
Is Jesse Kelly supposed to be a legitimate challenger for Giffords?  I'd heard nothing about him, but he has an add out on the top of drudgereport right now (with a gun in hand), which can't be cheap.  He seems to be pretty much the epitome of the intellectually challenged far right wing, so I'm not sure how well he'd play in a moderate district.  But from looking around the internets, he looks to be in it pretty seriously.
"the epitome of the intellectually challenged far right wing"
BINGO!

He's getting a lot of buzz in the far right blogosphere including local blogs (I grew up in AZ-08 and just left from an extended stay there two weeks ago). His campaign has been sloppy with expenditures and ridiculously unprofessional (for example, challenging Giffords to a debate that they already scheduled so his supporters could throw a internet-based bitch fit about her dodging debates when she didn't even respond to the invite on the grounds that he's not even the Repub nominee yet).

He's going to get absolutely demolished in Midtown Tucson and probably even the northern suburbs (they're fundamentally moderate in nature and are what doomed Randy Graf in 2006) and won't do well enough around Davis Monthan AFB to come close to making up for that (especially since people know Giffords has been good on Veterans issues and stuff like that). So he has... the Rincon Foothills and Cochise County. Sounds like a recipe for 45% ceiling to me.

He's also not even raising that much money. I'm already sick of having to entertain him being considered a legitimate candidate when I talk to conservatives.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
At the end of the second quarter
He had raised about $50k, compared to Giffords' $1.2 million war chest.
[ Parent ]
oh, also, irrelevant but interesting fact of the day
If you look at lifetime progressive punch scores for senators the worst five, and six of the worst seven senators are named either John or Jim
Wow
I really wish I hadnt looked at that.  I went to see where Klobuchar was at and I was extremely disappointed.  32!!!???  Since when does she vote that conservatively.  She is getting beat by Mark Warner and Mark Begich, ugh!

At least Franken has a perfect 100!  (heh)  He's becoming one of my faves, his closing speech about Sotomayor and calling all the conservative justices' findings to be what he'd judicial activism, fucking classic.  Im glad he is able to work his intelligence, his liberalism, and his over the top big mouth all into one really awesome package.  There, have I been forgiven now?  (St Paul Sage can answer that one  ;)  )

[ Parent ]
I don't read TOO much into these types of rankings ...
... but like most others here, do cite them from time to time, and think they can be a good GENERAL guide.  One thing I found interesting is that there were (at least for me) far fewer suprises on the Republican side than on the Democratic one.  It seems like the R's can be grouped into three pretty clear categories:

1 -- The dwindling number of true moderates within the parties -- Collins, Snowe, Voinovich, Lugar to an extent, etc.

2 -- A still somewhat decent number of reasonable conservatives -- folks like Senators Hatch, Grassley, and Cochran (but notice how many of them are old-timers likely to be replaced with Republicans more conservative than them).

3 -- The true hard-core wingers.  Notice how of the bottom 15, with the exception of Johanns of Nebraska, every one of them is from the South, Southwest, or Mountain West.  These are the nutjobs who are increasingly running the Republican Party.

[ Parent ]
Aurora
I'm sure I could look it up, but in the interest of a good time - which member of the IL Congressional delegation represents Aurora?  
I'm sure I could look it up, too
But I seem to be under the impression that it's bundled into IL-14 (Bill Foster).
[ Parent ]
Ah yes
I was correct.
[ Parent ]
Mikita
I am pretty sure Stan Mikita maxed out to Oberweis.
[ Parent ]
At first glance this looks odd
"The Palm Beach Post reports that Republican Gov. Charlie Crist asked 21st District Republican Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart to fill out an application for the soon-to-be-vacant U.S. Senate seat."

Then I thought a bit and worked it out - Crist won't pick him but having his name out there as being under consideration is a nod to the Cubans he needs in the primary. Pretty smart politics.

Link
[ Parent ]
It is pretty smart
No way a relatively young sitting congressman gets the appointment (and no way Cong. Diaz-Balart would accept it, giving up his House seat), but it is a pretty politically smart move.

I think Crist has to pick an older conservative person, especially if he really feels Rubio breathing down his neck (which he should -- while he's still the overwhelming favorite, I don't think Crist has this locked up by any stretch).

[ Parent ]
No reason not to pick him, really
Even if he gets into the primary, that's good for Crist.  
[ Parent ]
I just watched a bit of Wayne's World on my lunch break at work yesterday!
Anyway, I am most interested in CA-Gov in light of the new polls.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Once in a
while check out www.sfgate.com it finds out info on the race when we do but, it is the website of the San Francisco Chronicle. Just watch out when you read an article about health care reform or Prop 8, the right winger squads are in full force on those articles comments section.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I noticed.
These right-wing nuts tend to invade almost every news paper/channel/blog website I've seen, so I just avoid them like the plague.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Same here
I avoid comment sections on almost every politically-related site, save for this one. I used to read some of the comments on 538, but then came the tea parties and that jerkoff Contrarian. UGH! I was afraid I was going to turn green and quadruple in body size. Contrarian make Hulk mad!

Strange. I was never a fan of the Hulk (though I did like the most recent movie), and yet I find myself having more in common with him than some of the other superheroes (Marvel or DC).

[ Parent ]
Same with me on Dave Leip's election atlas forum.
It was actually a good site to visit in 2005 and 2006, but in 2007 things there started going downhill fast and have not recovered with many users there getting nasty at each other.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Charlotte mayoral election 2009
Anthony Foxx (D) vs. John Lassiter (R)
PPP is releasing a poll on this next monday but their twitter page says its a dead heat. This race will shed light on the current political trend in Charlotte. The results will hopefully also maybe shed some light on next years senate race.
LA-2
Cao is on Maddow right now. I had never seen him on teh television before. He seems like a nervous wreck. Looks a bit younger than I thought he was.

If he is normally this nervous, no way he is getting re-elected.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

He's not getting re-elected anyway
His district is 75% Democratic.  He might as well challenge Vitter in the Senate primary, because he has about as much of a chance at beating the corrupt Vitter as he does of beating a non-corrupt Democrat.  
[ Parent ]
Grumpy old Twitter men
Is anyone else amused by the Twitter feud between Arlen Specter and Chuck Grassley? I, for some reason, find it hilarious (in a funny way and a sad way). First off, both of these guys are pushing 80. What the heck are they doing on Twitter? Twitter should never be used by anyone over the age of 50, if not younger. Heck, to me, the site is only good for two things: 1) keeping track of film and casting news on Prodcution Weekly's feed, and 2) fomenting rebellion in Iran.

This reminds me of those parents who try to be "cool" by adopting their kids' tastes in music or catchphrases. It's sad. Still, the prospect of two geezers getting into a Twitter feud is too tempting to pass up.

Hell
Jon Corzine and Chris Christie have been slugging it out on twitter for the last few days.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
And I believe Grassley
Even said "ur" when twitting instead of "your". Good lord.
[ Parent ]
IN-03 news
Tom Hayhurst (D) to challenge Rep. Mark Souder (R).

Hayhurst held Souder to a 54-46 win in 2006, his narrowest re-election ever, in a solidly red district that Bush had hit 68% in.  Obama narrowed that significantly to a 56%-43% loss, but our 2008 challenger to Souder didn't do quite as well.  Now Hayhurst is back again, and I'm optimistic that the GOP will again have to sweat it out in a district that should be among their safest.

Bayh is on the top of the ballot
Evan Bayh's heavy coattails, could result in Mark Souder getting unseated if the democrats have a good year.
[ Parent ]
Evan Bayh's coattails?
Bayh hasn't won because he's a Democrat. He's won because he's barely a Democrat - or at least, so he would seem to think, given his votes. In any case, I really don't think he's won on the strength of loads of straight-ticket Democrats, and I therefore seriously doubt the strength of his generic-D coattails.

I also think that your hope of Souder being unseated is in vain. If his opponent couldn't get close to being unseated him last year, he ain't going down in a midterm election. I'm guessing it won't be any closer than it was in 2008, at best.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
I'm sure being Birch Bayh's son had something to do with it...
At least early on in his career.
[ Parent ]
Most definitely
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
WI-Gov
Politico has reported that Doyle will not run in 2010.  

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Both the Madison CBS affiliate and madison.com, the newspaper's website, have picked up the story as well.  

Sen. Dodd was released from the hospital today.
Sounds as though he'll be back in the Senate by the end of the recess.

On the flip-side of the medical coin, sounds like there are concerns over whether Sen. Kennedy can serve effectively in his condition. He didn't even attend his own sister's funeral this past week. Sad...

Due respect to Ted
but the MA legislature had better get to work revising its Senate appointments law.  
[ Parent ]
They already did.
They passed a special election law in case of a U.S. Senate vacancy in 2004 so Mitt Romney wouldn't have appointed a Republican if Kerry had been elected president.

http://www.fairvote.org/blog/2...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Unless andgarden wants it changed again for some reason...?

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Deval needs the ability to make an immediate appointment.  
[ Parent ]
Every
state needs to have a Texas style senate vacancy law. Governor appoints a placeholder who could choose to retire or run in a special election with all the candidates and the two highest vote getters goes off onto a runoff.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Oh.


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
FL-08: Cretul out
One of the local news affiliates is reporting that State Rep. Cretul will not run for Congress. I think this is good news for us, although Republicans still have a few potentially good candidates.

http://www.cfnews13.com/Politi...

MN-Gov: a first?
It just occurred to me that if Mark Dayton and Norm Coleman both run for and win their respective nominations for Governor, the MN-Gov race will feature two Senators who served opposite one another.

When was the last time that happened nationally -- that two Senators who served opposite one another run against one another for Governor?  Has it ever happened?

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

And if nominated
Two ex-senators the majority of their state probably wants to just go away, LOL.
[ Parent ]
PA-SEN; VA-Gov
PA-SEN: Nate Silver has a really good article putting a lot of the polling we've seeing in perspective. Basically, yes, things look pretty bad and the potential for devastating losses is certainly there, but a lot of what we're seeing in polls at is more of the worst case scenario. He specifically looks under the hood of that ugly Rasmussen PA-SEN poll earlier this week.

VA-Gov: Have Deeds and/or 3rd Party groups been doing much to try and drive up McDonnell's negatives? Firedoglake laid out some attacks on him that would be devastating in NoVa that might convince those who aren't that into Deeds to come out and vote anyway as anti-McDonnell voters. They wouldn't play well statewide, of course, but if they were in attack ads on local tv/radio, it would help to remind NoVa what's at stake.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

Thanks for the links
Silver's article is great. As for the Senate race, it's not that I don't think a Republican couldn't win statewide in PA next year -- it's that i think Pat Toomey can't win statewide next year.
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 43 comments

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