Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 8/13

by: Crisitunity

Thu Aug 13, 2009 at 2:52 PM EDT


FL-Sen: Charlie Crist barely survived another county-level GOP censure vote, this time in heavily-Democratic Palm Beach County, where one would expect the GOP faithful to be Chamber of Commerce types and not run-of-the-mill teabagging rageaholics. The censure bid failed on a 65-65 tie. The party member who led the bid referred to Crist as "nothing more than Arlen Specter with a tan."

NV-Sen: Rep. Dean Heller, who recently declined to run for Senate, laid his cards on the table, confirming what many suspected, that the John Ensign scandal contributed to Heller's decision not to run against Harry Reid. Any Ensign support for Heller would have been a distraction rather than an asset. In the same interview, Heller also encouraged Ensign to answer remaining questions about payoffs to the former staffer he had the affair with. (One other interesting question raised here... does Heller calling out Ensign mean Heller is trying to help push Ensign out the door and then run for the open Senate seat in 2012? Because that would mean Heller wouldn't run in the primary against Jim Gibbons in 2010, making it likelier that Gibbons survives the primary -- and I know Democrats would rather face Gibbons than Heller in the governor's race.)

Also, CQ is reporting that, bolstered by an internal poll giving her a small edge over Harry Reid (and also by Heller's decision to stand down), state GOP party chair Sue Lowden is getting more interested in making the race, and she's testing the fundraising waters.

PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach got another endorsement from Pennsylvania's GOP House delegation, Bill Shuster from PA-05 (coming on the heels of endorsements from Todd Platts and ex-Rep. Phil English). Of course, House colleagues tend to stick together, and their endorsements are of questionable value since they generally don't bring local machines along with them, but these endorsements are at least interesting to the extent that they're coming from the rural, most conservative parts of the "T," not from Gerlach's moderate southeastern suburban base.

VA-Gov: There's been some shuffling of personnel on the Creigh Deeds campaign, which has seemed kind of listless for the last month. Larry Sabato reported that campaign manager Joe Abbey, who engineered the primary victory, had been shoved over in favor of Mark Warner ally Monica Dixon. Dixon, however, says that Abbey's still in charge but that she and some other new additions are there to bolster the ranks.

KS-04: One more random wealthy Republican to add to the ever-expanding field in the open seat race in the Wichita-based 4th: oilman Willis "Wink" Hartman. State Sen. Dick Kelsey and RNC member Mike Pompeo are considered the GOP frontrunners.

NY-23: GOP nominee for the special election, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, had temporarily put her campaign on hold to tend to her father, who is recovering from heart surgery. Without a John McHugh Senate confirmation or a set election date, though, this isn't likely to be much of a setback. (Stuart Rothenberg, as part of a good overview of the race, says it's likely it'll be held on Election Day in November, meaning that the significance of whatever happens may be subsumed by NJ-Gov and VA-Gov.)

OH-SoS: The Secretary of State field for the Democrats may keep growing, with a potential new entrant with an impressive resume. Paul Gains is the Prosecutor in Mahoning County (where Youngstown is); he says he's leaning toward the race. (His biggest claim to fame is surviving a mob hit upon first taking office in 1996.) Ohio SoS is one of the most important lower-tier statewide offices in the country, given the state's narrow divide and the SoS's role on the legislative apportionment board. Franklin Co. Commissioner Marilyn Brown and State Rep. Jennifer Garrison are also likely to run for the Dems.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/13
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
R2K polls CA
Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer seem to be in good shape.

Meanwhile, it's a small sample, but we do have further confirmation that blacks are really quite opposed to marriage equality. I think the people who argued that the exit poll was wrong on that point have been discredited.  


During the post-Prop 8 snafu,
the discussion got increasingly ugly on most of the liberal blogs I frequent.  Instead of focusing on the opposition of Republicans, and older voters, people just zeroed in on African-Americans.  Dismay turned to anger and the fact that we had just elected a black president just made it worse.  The back and forth between gay and black commenters got even more heated, and a lot of unfortunate things were said.  It was a sorry time for dailykos and other sites.

The real lesson from these polls is that we need to do better at reaching out to communities that may be used to voting Democratic, but haven't come around to supporting marriage equality yet.


[ Parent ]
We expect Republicans and old people
to vote against civil rights. Surely you must understand what's remarkable here?

I'm not condemning, I'm just saying that some people have been in denial.  


[ Parent ]
Anyone who thinks there isn't a gay problem in the AA community
seriously has their head in the sand. We have a lot of work to do there.  

[ Parent ]
And the Prop 8 opponents didn't do that work in 2008
Opposition to gay marriage is closely correlated  with frequency of church-going. That translates into a built-in problem for reaching into the African-American community, because the rate of church attendance is higher than in most other communities.

Part of what happened in California in 2008 was the utter failure of the anti-Prop 8 campaign to do any effective campaigning and education in the African-American community, They assumed that because most black elected officials and civil rights groups were opposing Prop 8, that was enough. They didn't bring into political pros from the African-American community to design a targeted campaign, they didn't listen to the black LGBT activists who were begging for greater attention to black voters.

The exit poll that said 70% of African-American voters supported Prop 8 has been largely supplanted  by more detailed analysis of other polling and actual vote results from African-American communities. (NGLTF assembled a panel of political scientists to conduct an in-depth analysis of the vote totals and concluded the number was more likely 57 to 59% -- still not good, but better than 70%.)

That number could probably have been lowered even more if well-targeted messages and grassroots campaigning had been implemented.

There is definitely work to do in the black community, but let's be clear that there is at least as much work to do on homophobia in our culture at large and many other communities.  


[ Parent ]
I don't know what more research you want
Every poll I've seen since has put black opposition to gay marriage at or above 65%.


[ Parent ]
I want outreach, not "research"
I don't assume that African-American opinions on marriage equality are fixed and unchangeable -- anymore than it was impossible that overall American attitudes on same-sex marriage  could have been changed from 20 years ago, when the idea was politically untouchable.

But opinions don't change on their own. In the case of Prop 8, sadly the campaign organizers never developed an effective strategy to appeal to African-American voters. They neglected to do specific outreach, develop targeted messages, consult with political leaders in the community to shape the campaign, listen to black LGBT people, engage pro-marriage equality black clergy (yes, they very much exist) or show any other politically smart approach to this group of voters.

There should have been a concerted effort to deliver strong messages in the black community -- using credible voices including African-American elected officials, civil rights leaders, prominent African-American entertainers, clergy, black GLBT people and their families,  and others who were opposed to Prop 8 but never fully engaged by the "No on 8" campaign.

The messages could have emphasized points such as the danger of any minority's rights being  subject to popular vote, the history of American denial of equal marriage rights to African-Americans (forbidding slaves to marry, banning interracial marriage), and the racist history of many of the Prop 8 proponents.

Would a better campaign have resulted in majority African-American opposition to Prop 8? Probably not, but it probably could have cut down the margin significantly. And sustained work over time could help bring about an overall change in attitude.

There is a lot of work to do overcoming homophobia in the African-American community, just as there is work to do in overcoming homophobia in countless other parts of our society. And just as there is much work still to be done overcoming racism in the GLBT community.

--
As for numbers:

Analysis of data from the California election makes the NEP 70% number look like a serious outlier. (Not necessarily surprising, since accuracy becomes more of a problem when analyzing smaller sub-samples within a larger poll.)

Two pre-election California polls showed much more modest African-American support for Prop 8. The Field Poll  (pretty much gold standard in California polling) 10/23/08 showed 53% support for Prop 8, while the SUSA poll of 10/30/08 showed African-American support at only 50%.

A statewide poll was conducted shortly after the election by DBR for Equality California (contracted to better understand what happened in the Prop 8 vote)
showed 58% support for Prop 8 among African-Americans.

An intensive statistical analysis of actual votes from the election was conducted by NGLTF to better understand voting patterns. These analyses looked at precincts with heavy African-American populations and, after accounting for the % of other groups in the precinct, concluded that the level of African-American support for Prop 8 was either 57% (using one statistical method) or 59% (using another advanced statistical technique).

http://www.thetaskforce.org/do...

While I have seen a number of national polls since last November measuring public support for marriage equality (with widely different results in different polls), I have not been able to find racial cross-tabs for any of those polls. What polls are you referring to that show opposition at or above 65%?

--

I'm not arguing that there isn't a serious issue here -- there is, and it is important that it be dealt with honestly and openly. But it is much more complex than simply writing off the African-American community as hopelessly and irrevocably homophobic, or blaming black voters for the outcome of Prop 8 (even if not a single African-American had voted in the election, Prop 8 still would have passed).



[ Parent ]
I have seen the opposite, actually
The focus being almost entirely on Republicans and conservatives but almost no focus on African Americans and the many latinos (although their vote was very evenly split, if i recall) who voted 'yes'. Maybe I havent read the liberal blogs enough but it was the impression i have gotten. just my 2 cents, anyway.

[ Parent ]
The discussions got pretty heated
dKos and Americablog, among many others,  had some nasty exchanges -- accusations of homophobia, racism, selfishness, etc were thrown around pretty wantonly. You can still find the discussions in the archives of those sites if you want, but it isn't necessarily a pleasant thing to do.

The claim was frequently made by some Prop 8 opponents that the extra African-American voters brought out by the excitement of the Obama candidacy provided the winning margin for the Prop 8 win -- but even using the worst case analysis of the black vote, this doesn't pan out mathematically - even if not a single African-American had voted, Prop 8 still would have passed (albeit by a narrower margin).

The Latino vote also went for Prop 8 -- the NEP (the networks' exit poll) said by a 53%  to 47% margin, while a poll immediately after the election by DBR (conducted for Equality CA to figure out what went wrong) showed a heavier 59%  to 41% Latino margin in favor of Prop 8.

By contrast, the NEP said that the African-American vote went overwhelmingly for Prop 8, citing 70% to 30% . In contrast, the DBR poll showed an African-American vote going 59% to 41% in favor of Prop 8. This number was in line with the 57% or 59% estimates that were developed by political scientists (hired by NGLTF) who studied actual vote totals from locations with large numbers of African-American voters and used complex statistical analysis to  parse racial voting patterns.

(Another post election poll, conducted by SUSA, showed that only 40% of black voters voted for Prop 8 -- but that is widely viewed as a real outlier.)

If nothing else, all these dueling numbers show the limitations of public opinion polling including exit polls -- especially when it involves smaller sub-samples of parts of the population.  


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the info
I might take a look at those archives sometime. Who knows.

Yeah exit polls can definitely be flawed. Especially the ones prior to 2004. Man some of those are way off.


[ Parent ]
During the post-Prop 8 snafu,
the discussion got increasingly ugly on most of the liberal blogs I frequent.  Instead of focusing on the opposition of Republicans, and older voters, people just zeroed in on African-Americans.  Dismay turned to anger and the fact that we had just elected a black president just made it worse.  The back and forth between gay and black commenters got even more heated, and a lot of unfortunate things were said.  It was a sorry time for dailykos and other sites.

The real lesson from these polls is that we need to do better at reaching out to communities that may be used to voting Democratic, but haven't come around to supporting marriage equality yet.


[ Parent ]
VA-gov question
A few days ago, Obama went to NOVA with his entourage to help Deds. There was a brief mention of the traffic jam it caused (I am guessing here) in Not Lary sabato. He thought it a prescription for losing votes. I have not seen any other post. I will appreciate if anyone can throw some light on this.

I am hoping the staff change works for Deeds.

I do not want to harp too much on Leslie Byrne. Somehow I feel that Deeds would have gotten those 200 odd votes ( and elected AG over McD) had she not been on the ticket. Then it would have more difficult for the republicans to win this election. I have no proof for this. Just I was not happy about running Byrne for LG.


Obama came in by plane rather than limo
This reduced any traffic problems.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
By chopper, actually


[ Parent ]
It was pretty much an ordinary Tysons Corner rush hour.
There were 1700 people at the events, plus staff, security, etc. Given that 120,000 people work in Tysons every day, it was a drop in the bucket.

It was nothing like, for example, Election Eve in Manassas.


[ Parent ]
PA Specter
I was looking at the new rasmussen poll which had Toomey leading Specter, so I decided to look at Spector's electoral history. Apparently his last close race in a general election was in 1992 against someone named Lynn Yeakel and beat her 49% to 47%. Does anyone know who Lynn Yeakel is and why that race was so close.

Two reasons
Anita and Hill.

[ Parent ]
Damn
Specter really threw the kitchen sink at her. He basically called her a flat out racist.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Yep
And we in the Sestak camp need to recognize that Specter is going to do the exact same thing again.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov
"A new survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Stan Greenberg and James Carville's organization Democracy Corps puts Governor Corzine within striking distance of Republican Chris Christie. The survey shows that Corzine now trails Christie by just 5 points in a three-way race and 6 points in a two-way matchup. Christie leads Corzine 40 to 35 percent, with Independent candidate Chris Daggett attracting 10 percent of the vote. In a two-way trial heat, Christie leads Corzine 43 to 37 percent."

http://www.democracycorps.com/...


I can believe it
More and more, I'm getting the feeling that Corzine will pull this out. If there's one thing I've learned about Jersey politics, besides its colorful corruption, it's that you never bet against the machine.

Question to the Jerseyites: Who is this Norcross I always hear about? I presume he's a machine boss, but what's his history?

As for Paul Gains as OH SoS, color me surprised. While I live in Trumbull County, I do know Gains by reputation. Heck, he's a living legend in these parts, not as big as Traficant (who is being released on 9/2) but still pretty big. I know very little about his politics, save that the Y'town machine (which has been very cosy with the mob) has been trying to knock him off for years (electorally and even physically) but he has always beaten them back. I never figured him for statewide office. His history of fighting the mafia will play very well, but I'm not sure how the rest of the state will react to him.

BTW, what's the best OH blog to visit? I used to visit BSB a lot, but the constant troll attacks have soured me.


[ Parent ]
NJ/VA Gov
I've been working on the math from the polls and the past trends and these are my predictions for the New Jersey and Virginia governor races.

New Jersey
42% Corzine
41% Christie
15% Daggett
2% Other

Virginia
51% Deeds
49% McDonnell

In mid September, Corzine and Christie will be in a dead heat in the polls and by mid to late October, Corzine will be narrowly ahead.

In late September, Deeds will be even with McDonnell in the polls and Deeds will barely pull ahead of McDonnell in the week before election.


[ Parent ]
Nov
I think Corzine can pull it out, but I don't think Deeds has any real shot.  His campaign is being run pretty badly and McDonnell keeps chugging along.  I also think we will lose the McHugh seat race pretty badly too.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
Right
and Republicans retake the house and reduce our margin in the senate to 51-49 by knocking off Bennett, Lincoln, Gilibrand, Boxer, Dodd, Reid, Specter, we lose Obama and Biden's senate seats in a "Anyone but Democrats" mood.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
that seems a bit unrealistic


[ Parent ]
It's called sarcasm.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I'm not ready to call anything yet
All sorts of permutations are possible in NY-23. Repubs have the advantage in both gubernatorial races but there are more than ten weeks or so lef to turn those around. Personally I still see routes to victory for Deeds AND Corzine.  

[ Parent ]
Norcross
I live in North Jersey.  Norcross is a south Jersey phenomena.  What I know is from the local papers in North Jersey, mostly the Newark Star-Ledger.

George Norcross is the Democratic boss of Camden County and also controls the neighboring Democrats in Burlington.  Although the state's newspapers make Norcross both an all-around villain and the boss of the Democratic party, it is the votes from Essex and Hudson counties that really count (with Bergen third).  On election night, I zero in on the two key counties for the statewide vote.

Norcross inherited power with local unions through his father.  Also depending on the source, Rob Andrews is his messenger boy (or isn't).  Personally, I think Norcross is a drag on the party statewide and Andrews is an Ivy-educated messenger boy.  That is just opinion, though.


[ Parent ]
How is andgarden feeling here?
Or is it too early?

[ Parent ]
Another day, another NJ poll that doesn't
give crosstabs by race or age (as far as I can tell). The electorate is way more conservative than last November, though.

It doesn't look good for Corzine, but he still has a shot.  


[ Parent ]
A little more on Paul Gains
It was his attempted murder in 1996 that finally forced Youngstown to take organized crime seriously. It was in the aftermath that mob boss Lenny Strollo was caught, and his trial lead to the arrests and convictions of multiple elected officials: Mahoning County sheriff Phil Chance, the previous County prosecutor James Philomena (who was notorious for fixing cases and may have been involved in the gains hit job), and eventually Jim Traficant.

One potential drawback is Gains' appearance. He looks like a deranged Donald Southerland.

Here's a video of him:

http://www.vindy.com/videos/20...


Excellent read on Crist and the FL senate seat...
http://www.southernpoliticalre...

Let's hope the Club for Growth comes through for Rubio.  


I'm
thinking what your thinking? Let's do the Gray Davis strategy and have the DSCC attack Charlie Crist like crazy during the primary air ads that question his conservative credentials. If everything goes right, Crist loses by a 60 to 40 margin in the primary and our chances of picking up the seat go up ten fold. Flip side, Rubio wins the primary and edges out Meek and we get to deal with another DeMint clone for the next 6 years. But Rubio needs to raise more money if he's to be considered a legitimate threat to Crist.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Breaking TX-GOV News
State Sen. Kirk Watson is not running for Governor, instead choosing to seek re-election to the State Legislature.

TX Dems live to suck another day! Schieffer, Kinky or (likely) Ronnie Earle who would be the most politicized candidate we could nominate.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Of the three
Schieffer is our best bet.

I think either Bill White or John Sharp needs to ditch the Senate race and run for Governor.  I think either would have a good chance against Rick Perry, whom I think will beat Hutchison in the primary.


[ Parent ]
Ideal scenario and we could pick
Who would be best for the senate race and who for governor?

[ Parent ]
Bill White would be our best choice
for both spots.  But he actually has a chance to win the Governorship against Perry, while I'm not sure that any Democrat can win the Senate seat.

[ Parent ]
Perry/White would be a barnburner
White still might be popular here in the conservative suburbs. That would certainly help. Especially if he does really well in the DFW area. And usually a Mayor would rather be an executive than in the legislature, i would think. I wonder why White prefers to run for Sen. And I do think Perry will beat KBH, though itll still probably be close. He is popular amongst the social conservatives and i would think making inroads with the 'Country Club' Republicans because of his newfound far right positions/rhetoric on economic issues.

[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox