My money;s on Sullivan

a former mayor of Oswego...still involved in politics with major contacts via his work in Medicaid....a knowledgeable voice on healthcare via that same work.  

It only makes sense that thats who they'll choose.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 00:02:14 AM UTC

Going to be a tough one

But with the Conservatives running their own guy, we got a definite shot here.  Even if we lose, I'm just waiting for Scozzafava to get primaried out next year.  She's in favor of same-sex marriage equality...there's simply no way she can win a contested GOP primary.

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by: skaje @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 00:45:23 AM UTC

Such a sad commentary

I'd like to believe that's not true in New York.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 05:44:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What exactly are you talking about?

Skaje just points out that the loony Republican base won't accept a pro marriage equality Republican holding this seat. This comment is just a fact. Like e.g. that the KKK won't accept black members. So what's wrong with it?

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by: germanliberal @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 07:00:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't understand your reaction

(1) I think that Republicans in New York are a lot less extreme than in many other states, as shown for example by the mere fact that Scozzafava is still a Republican in this state;
(2) If they aren't moderate enough to accept someone like Scozzafava as a Representative because they disagree with her on gay rights, as I said (and have said repeatedly on other threads), I think that's a really sad commentary on the Republican Party.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 07:58:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry that I misunderstood you

I didn't understand that you were bemoaning the sad state of the Republican Party. I thought you were complaining about skaje's comment.  

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by: germanliberal @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 15:17:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No problem

But just for the hell of it (and not out of any kind of knowledge of the politics of that district), I'll predict that if Scozzafava wins the special election, she'll win any Republican primary for a full term.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 18:55:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Map

For the geographically-challenged like myself, here's how it looks:

The red outline is Dede Scozzafava's district in the state Assembly, representing about 128,000 people. Oswego has about 18,000 people, Plattsburgh has about 19,000, and Lowville has about 3,500 people.

So, in terms of geographic bases, that's what we're talking about. Sullivan has the advantage of having held elective office, meaning he might actually be able to claim some base of support.

This probably doesn't tell us much, but in a district this big, I've got to think geography matters a little.

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by: Fitzy @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 00:54:50 AM UTC

NY

Heres hoping for Sullivan.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 01:06:42 AM UTC

It's Owens

http://www.politickerny.com/48...

Check out the Guru's blog at http://www.senateguru.com/

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by: Senate Guru @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 01:27:23 AM UTC

The traditional Republican nature of the district

plus Dede Scozzafava's strong geographical base, plus the lack of an elected official in the Dem field, makes me think Scozzafava should win, but then again, the situation wasn't that dramatically different in NY-20.

Still, I've heard rumblings that Scozzafava will compile a more moderate record than McHugh, who was a reasonable fellow in his own right, so there's really no losing here.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

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by: Nathaniel90 @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 01:29:05 AM UTC

NY-20

The Republican was from outside the district, so I do think that's a difference. Also, Scozzafava is a pretty liberal Republican and Tedisco is not.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 05:45:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I want to make an off the wall prediction,

based on very little: the Dem comes in third in this race.

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by: andgarden @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 01:47:18 AM UTC

That would hurt

But I seriously doubt it.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 07:23:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]