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IL-10: Seals Posts Commanding Lead in Own Poll

by: James L.

Mon Aug 10, 2009 at 3:37 PM EDT


Anzalone Liszt for Dan Seals (8/3-6, likely primary voters):

Dan Seals (D): 63
Julie Hamos (D): 8
Elliot Richardson (D): 2
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4.9%)

At first glance, those numbers might seem a bit laughable, but don't forget: Seals put out some pretty similar internal polls last cycle, including one in November 2007 that showed him leading the hapless Jay Footlik by 58-6. Seals eventually won that primary with 81% of the vote despite Footlik raising some decent pie.

The Math is pretty formidable for Seals here -- he posts an 83% name recognition score, and a 70-13 favorable/unfavorable spread. In short, despite losing two general elections in a row, Democratic voters appear to like Seals pretty well. Hamos, a state representative who lives in the nearby 9th District, is only known to 18% of voters, so she has some room to grow, but she'd have to raise some seriously huge scrilla to wash out Seals' strong and early advantage.

The full, Resistance Is Futile-themed polling memo is available below the fold.

James L. :: IL-10: Seals Posts Commanding Lead in Own Poll
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Not surprised.
He was the nominee twice already, and got generally good reviews as a candidate, despite being unable to take out Kirk.

I assume they also asked some GE head-to-heads
Funny how those aren't in the public memo. . .

Wouldn't read too much into that
They don't always ask that.

[ Parent ]
Besides
The poll is Democrats only.

[ Parent ]
They would need to oversample
Which would cost a good deal more. Considering that the GOP field is not certain right now, I doubt Seals would have paid for that yet. In other words, I don't share andgarden's cynicism here.

[ Parent ]
Me neither
The write-up gives away the intention of the poll - dismiss Hamos out the gate.

[ Parent ]
Heck, maybe you're right
I'm always suspicious of campaign polls that aren't full releases.  

[ Parent ]
Very few campaigns give you the whole enchilada
These summary memos are usually about as detailed as you get.

[ Parent ]
Sounds like a good reason
to be suspicious of campaign polls. But for some races you have to take what you can get. . .

[ Parent ]
why would Seals spend extra money
sampling non-Democrats at this point?

Which Republicans would you include in the poll?

My suspicion is that outside Rep. Beth Coulson the name recognition of the GOP candidates is significantly less than 10%. These people simply aren't known quantities.

What value is polling Republican X and Y against Seals if Republican X and Y aren't defined yet.


[ Parent ]
70% favorible
I find it hard to believe that Seals would have that high a favorability rating given that he has never served in congress. I getting sick of Seals, I looked at his tv ads and they really weren't that good at all. I really want him to just GO AWAY. I liked Michael Bond much better, too bad hes gone and we have to deal with Seals again. If Seals manages to buy his way through the primary and loose again, I think that democrats should stop supporting him.

On favourability,
the reverse could hold; he's been a candidate, thus able to say all the right stuff, but never had to actually do anything in Congress they might disagree with.

[ Parent ]
Make him go away
If Seals COULD NOT win against Mark Kirk even though he had the support of the DCCC and Obama winning the district by a huge margin, it's clear he's unelectable.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

I also wanna mention
that not only did Obama win the district by a huge margin but Senator Dick Durbin won the district an even much wider margin. Mark Kirk didn't win, Dan Seals lost. Independent voters in the district probably were looking for someone to show experience and knowledge of the issues not just some money fundraising machine. GO AWAY DAN SEALS!

[ Parent ]
Seals isn't so bad.
   I'd still prefer Hamos.  More women need to be in Congress!  Either way we get a liberal Democrat (now that Bond is out).  
 

24, Male, GA-05

After hearing positive statements about both
candidates, Seals' lead is nearly cut in half (from +55% to +30%).  Anzalone Liszt must have thought it was a plus to release this info, but it could be interpreted otherwise.

the good news part
the point Seals is trying to make with that is that even after information about the candidates is given, he still leads by 30%.  

There is no doubt in anyone's mind that his massive lead right now is all because of his high name rec and the lack of name rec for the others.  Putting out the info on them and still winning by 30 is good news for Seals.  

As for the people above who simply want Seals to go away...did anyone ever think that maybe Kirk just successfully made himself out to be a moderate and made Seals out to be the liberal that he is??

Obama won because McCain was a conservative, Durbin won because his opponent was a conservative, not because either was a liberal.  Kirk won because people think he;'s a moderate which is why he;s a strong candidate statewide and why the Illinois Senate race will be competetive.  

Kirk, an intrenched incumbent who voters believe to be moderate, won the race because independents will choose the moderate over the liberal every day of the week.  just as they will pick the moderate over the conservative....just look at Bobby Bright and Walt Minnick.  These guys won in seats that McCain took handily....that other statewide office holders cruised to re-election in...but they did so (with Minnikc beating an incumbent) because they made their opponents out to be too conservative for the indys while they made themselves as moderates.  

Thats how Kirk won, thats why Kirk will be a dangerous foe in the senate race and thats why Dan Seals lost both races.  Just like all the others before him inculding St. Rep. Lauren Gash who ran against Kirk when it was an open seat.  This seat has been held by Republicans for decades.  I don't understand why people think Seals should have just walked away with this seat.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
I disagree
with the post above, but I want to mention how everyone is calling Mark Kirk a moderate. MARK KIRK IS NOT A MODERATE. A moderate republican would have voted for the stimulus bill. A moderate republican would be supporting the public option for healthcare. If you want to see look at Leonard Lance for New Jersey. The fact is that Kirk is better at promoting himself as a moderate than Seals was at promoting the very obvious flaws with Kirk. The truth is that while Mark Kirk was in congress, he voted with Bush, the special interests, and the republican party for a huge portion of the time. Another thing is that being entranched in a district usually means that by time you get to your 5th election you should be winning elections by a wide margin like Chet Edwards. In addition, I think had Michael Bond ran in 2006 or 2008, Mark Kirk would have lost heavily and we wouldn't have to deal with him at a statewide level.

[ Parent ]
than same can be said about Reichert
but I'd bet Burner would be back if it was an open seat.  

Mark Kirk is very good at promoting himself to be a moderate.  I agree that he isn't.  But that doesn't mean that people don't believe that he is.  Its much harder to convince people of reality than it is to make them stop believeing what they already believe.  Look at the birthers and this health care debate.  

No amount of evidence that they;re wrong is chainging their opinion.  Thats just the case of what happened in this case.  No matter what Dan Seals did, he couldn't convince the people that Kirk wasn't what he said he was.  

I've seen it in my work in local elections.....people I've counted on for sign locations and petition signatures and votes flip the other direction because, "I really like so and so"  even though so and so stands for everything they are against.  It drives me up a wall.

My old home town is just rampant with corruption.  They've had 4 people resign positions in the last 2 years and several others were arressted for embezzlement and such.  The incumbent up in the election had aided and abetted these people the whole way but hadn't done anything illegal (that we know of).  A former selectmen, named Lou lost rather flukily the year before, ran against him.  I go to a friend of mine;s house, his parents have supported every candidate I've ever asked them too, including Lou.  They can't stand the corruption, they hate the votes the incumbent has made...I figure, this one's in the bag....boy was I wrong.  turns out my friend's parents loved the incumbent so much, they wouldn't even sign the petition to put Lou on the ballot.  I spent an hour at their place trying to convince them to no avail....thats just how some people are and I'm betting that no matter who ran, Mark Kirk would have beaten them.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
You dont have to support those things to be a moderate
Even many moderate Democrats dont. Those are just two issues. Just like how you dont have to be pro-choice to be a moderate or considered very pro-labor. Also, IMO, the stimulus isnt really an ideologically-based issued. In most European countries, with their stimulus bills, it is the left who is against it and the right who is for it. Though obviously the mainstream left there would be considered far left here and the mainstream right there would be considered centrist, here, at the most conservative.  

[ Parent ]
How about Jim Kirsch?
Three-term Highland Park City Councilman Jim Kirsch is also contemplating a bid for the Illinois 10 seat.  It appears the poll only dealt with declared candidates-Seals, Hamos and Richardson-and excluded both Kirsch and state Sen. Terry Link, who has expressed an interest.

Kirsch, who was raised in the district and has long lived there with his family, chairs Highland Park's finance committee and knows how to balance a budget without raising taxes.  In addition to serving on the city council, he runs Professional Diversity Network finding jobs for people with diverse backgrounds.

Balancing budgets and creating jobs seems like an outstanding mix in this economy.  Kirsch would be a far better representative in Congress than Seals or Hamos and he should get in the race.  No wonder Seals excluded Jim and Terry from the poll.


I hope one of them steps in...
I'm really disappointed Bond dropped out - I think he'd have the best shot against Beth Coulson.

I'm not a huge fan of either Seals or Hamos:

Seals has already lost twice, and did worse in '08 with Obama than in '06 with...Roddy B's coattails(?!)...
I love Hamos as my state rep, but even I think she's being a bit of a carpetbagger.

Ideally, we'd have someone from Northfield/Glenview/Arlington Heights, somewhere in the more populous Cook parts of the district, but we don't really have a good bench out there.


[ Parent ]
Not true
Seals has already lost twice, and did worse in '08 with Obama than in '06 with...Roddy B's coattails(?!)...

In 2006, Seals won 46.6% of the vote. In 2008, Seals won 47.4%. I'm not saying that Seals is the best guy for this race, but this "Seals did worse in 2008" mantra is a zombie myth that won't die.


[ Parent ]
Hm. I stand corrected.
I always had it at around 54-45 in my mind for 08, but maybe that's my (happily) abbreviated Election Night 2008 memory kicking in. :)

[ Parent ]
54-45
thats what DC's political report lists it as....I'm not sure where James got his info bit wikipedia (not a good source but I looked anyway...has the same thing...54-45

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
They're wrong
If you calculate the percentages from the State Board of Elections, Seals had over 47.4%

http://www.elections.state.il....

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Wikipedia agrees with me
Well, at least, this page does.

But if you wanna confirm it, just check the Illinois SBoE:

Dan Seals: 138176
Mark Kirk: 153082

If you do the math, the % split is right -- 47.4 to 52.6.

I don't know what DC's Political Report is smoking (probably an earlier version of the results).


[ Parent ]
YEAH! Seal did so well in 2008
that CNN projects him with more votes than Mark Kirk!
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

Too bad he did get declared the winner though. Looks like some Cook County ballot counting going on. I think 3rd time may not be the charm ... we need a better candidate in this district.


seals had every resource and couldn't win
Anzalone's always loves his own polling btw

What's with the Seals hate?
He took on a pretty popular, moderate incumbent in a district that historically was pretty favorable to those types of Republicans.  Kirk received 69% of the vote in 2002 and 64% in 2004.  This was never an easy win for us, but Seals made it close, twice.

Seals will easily beat anyone not named Kirk in this district.


I had a friend who is a student at UChicago
who is a political science major and worked for Seals campaign in 2008. She said it was an absolute trainwreck and a disorganized mess. She said she was actually surprised that it was as close as it was. According to her most of the people she interviewed claimed they didnt like Kirk but couldn't vote for Seals if he couldn't even run a campaign properly. The main implied messages of Seals campaign were, "Vote for me cause I look and act like Barack Obama.", "Vote for me cause Im a nice guy with a happy family." My friend said the that real issues having to do Seals distracted voters from the truth behind Kirk. Seals has had his chance (twice) and screwed up twice. As much as you people may like Seals, the truth is that it really was his fault for loosing in 2008 election and I think its time he gets the boot.

[ Parent ]
Who do you like?
       So if Seals gets the boot, who should carry the Democratic banner?

       Hamos has a lot of elected officials behind her, Kirsch has the experience and lives in the district, Link lives here too and no one is writing about Richardson.


[ Parent ]
Michael Bond!!!
The only reason he is droped out is because he didnt feel like being in a primary where Seals bought the nomination. I absolutely believe had been Kirk vs. Bond in '06 or '08, Mark Kirk would have been defeated.

[ Parent ]
I live in the district
and I can tell you that Bond would have been a terrible choice. I don't get the love here for him--I know of a group of local activists who tried to meet with him and were treated rudely by his office. He would not have been a formidable candidate as the local activists here would have refused to support him as opposed to Hamos or Seals.

[ Parent ]
Bond was the DCCC darling
and had trouble raising money.

Sitting state senator on the North Shore who has the blessing of the DCCC... and the guy has trouble raising money?

The guy should have been able to raise six-figures in a short period of time, but he couldn't.

What do his family and friends know?

Compare Manny Flores' fundraising for IL-04 to Bond's fundraising for IL-10. A Mexican alderman raised ten times what Bond raised and that was gonna be a competitive race.


[ Parent ]
Any idea about Seals's name rec and approval among all voters?
Not just D primary voters?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Question about retreads, using Larry Grant as a case study
ID-01: Why did Larry Grant not defeat Bill Sali in 2006?  If Grant had been the nominee last year, would he have defeated Sali?  (And what about Rand Lewis, since I'm asking anyway?)

Despite my liking talking about ID-01, I'm not actually all that knowledge about it, which is why I'm asking.

But I'm wondering what Larry Grant can tell us about people like Dan Seals, Darcy Burner, and Elwyn Tinklenberg.

(BTW, anyone know what Grant and LaRocco are up to these days?)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


Hamos' indecision; Seals n GOP dirty tricks
Hamos wanted to run for AG. Then she was undecided, considering Lt. Governor.

When IL-10 came open she got interested in this seat.

I'm a little concerned about Seals losing twice, but Kirk's allies in the Jewish community did a good job peeling away votes on the issue of Israel with partial quotes and viral emails.


correction on yesterday's post
I just want everyone to know that the person I was referring yesterday actually worked for Seals in 2006 not 2008. In 2006, the time she was at UChicago transferred to Georgetown and is no longer associated with the Seals campaign.


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