| 1. Andrew Romanoff (Colorado)
Who Is He: Former Speaker of the Colorado State House, represented the 6th State House District
Where Would He Run: CO-Sen? CO-Gov?
Why Isn't He In Congress Already: Romanoff had the misfortune of retiring just as every single possible slot in the state delegation that's winnable for a Dem got filled. If someone less quirky than Bill Ritter was Governor, he likely would have been tapped for an appointment to Salazar's vacated Senate seat. The other problem for Romanoff is that even though Dems control the trifecta in Colorado, it would be very difficult and risky to draw another Dem seat, as Markey has to be shored up as does John Salazar (though much less so); there almost certainly has to be at least one GOP seat based in Colorado Springs, and probably, although not certainly, another based in Douglas County.
Theoretically, he could challenge Ritter or Bennet in the primary, though that would be a mighty tough slog. Ritter is vulnerable on his left flank to an extent. DeGette's too popular in the 1st, so unless Obama appoints her to something, that avenue is closed.
2. Christopher Hurst (Washington State)
Who Is He: State Representative for the 31st House District in Southern King and Pierce Counties
Where Would He Run: WA-08
Why He Isn't In Congress Already: Hurst has considered running for Congress in Washington's 8th District against Dave Reichert before. I'm convinced the reason he hasn't is that he'd have a tough time making it through a primary, as the bulk of the Democratic vote is up in the Bellevue area. Hurst is from the Southern part of the district which is less populated and generally more conservative.
If you could get him through a primary, he matches up perfectly against Reichert-he's a former cop, so Reichert can't out law and order him, and he's also a proven vote getter in swingy South King and the conservative Pierce County.
3. Sean Logan (Pennsylvania)
Who He Is: State Senator for the 45th District, lives in the Pittsburgh suburb of Monroeville
Where He Would Run: PA-18 or its successor
Why Isn't He In Congress Already: Logan has been repeatedly wooed as a challenger for Tim Murphy, but has declined. Logan doesn't actually live in the 18th, which is insanely gerrymandered, but lives just over the line in Mike Doyle's 14th.
Logan may simply be waiting for redistricting, as the map is likely to be drawn by a judge, and there is absolutely no way Murphy, who is ethically on shaky ground, will get anywhere near as Republican a seat as he has now. Even as is, the 18th isn't a great seat for Murphy; trust me when I say that the PVI here lies by at least 3 points, and that a local Dem could easily win here. Obama and Kerry were both terrible fits for the 18th, and Gore only lost here by 5.
4. Rafael Anchia/Kirk England (Texas)
Who Are They: Texas State House Reps for the 103rd (Anchia) and 106th (England) Districts, England is a former Republican who switched parties
Where Will They Run: Texas's new "33rd" District
Why Aren't They In Congress Already: Here's the situation; prior to the DeLaymander, metro Dallas had two pretty solid Dem seats, the 30th a minority majority district based in Dallas, and the Arlington based 24th, held by Martin Frost which was a "coalition" district. In re-redistricting, the 24th got chopped up among several districts with a lot ending up in a new GOP 24th and Pete Sessions 32nd. This has led to both of these districts starting to fall off a cliff for the GOP because of explosive latino growth. McCain only won 24 with 55% and 32 with a mere 53%, danger territory by Texas standards.
So, unless they want a Pennsylvania style disaster in North Texas, they're going to have to create some sort of Democratic district to pack all of the Dems together. There's a fair amount of debate as to how they will do this, with one thought being that it will end up as a Latino plurality Fort Worth based seat, while some others feel that they'll recreate something like the old 24th and make it a coalition district.
Both Anchia and England are well placed for whatever they create, and I have to think that one of them will almost certainly run for the new seat. |
