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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 5:03 PM EDT


A special John Hughes Memorial Open Thread:

James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 68 comments
NY-Sen
If we (Republicans) don't get Pataki or King, who do ya'll think we can run?  
Good Question
Maybe someone from the state senate? A former appointed statewide officer?

Aside from Rudy, George, and Pete, you guys don't have a viable statewide bench in NY.

[ Parent ]
hmm...
How about the Gillibrand-like move of taking Chris Lee from NY-26?

Just a piece of friendly advice from Team Blue.  :)

[ Parent ]
We have some, but are they interested?
Former SoS Randy Daniels could make a run. If Giuliani runs for Gov, maybe would drop out the Gov race and run for Senate.  
[ Parent ]
Catharine Young?
I've heard Young is an upwardly mobile moderate Southern Tier pol who's moderate enough to, possibly, play relatively well statewide.  Maybe also Betty Little?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
IDK about Young.
I'll have to do some research. I was thinking Betty Little but, 2 things against her:
1. She lives in NY-20 also
2. She is considering a run against Murphy in 2010.  
[ Parent ]
NY City Council?
Has 3 Republicans. Majority Leader James Oddo,and two others. One is too young to run for Senate. The other wasn't elected until 2007. James Oddo is from NYC, so maybe he would be a good candidate? He's young too.  
[ Parent ]
I would add
NYC Council Member and Ex-NY Assemblyman Vincent Ignizio. A young, attractive Italian-American whos probably not a hardline conservative. As I know that in 2004, after he unseated Assemblyman Robert Straniere in the GOP primary, he didnt get the support of the NY Conservative Party. So unless he took a sharp turn to the right then hes probably, at the worst, a mainstream conservative. But the man is only 34 years old...he has a long career ahead of him. And if he gets killed by Gillibrand then he can probably forget about a future statewide run. And maybe even be credible in a U.S. House GOP primary.

What about State Sen. Andrew Lanza? Project Vote Smart only lists him as a member of the Republican and Independence Party. Not the Conservative Party. So Id imagine hes, at worst, a mainstream conservative. The Staten Islander is an ex-NYC Councilman and an ex-Assistant DA in the Manhattan District Attorney's Office. But he only won his term in the State Sen. in 2006 so hes not incredibly experienced. And at 45 has a long career ahead of him.

[ Parent ]
Two young, attractive, ideologically sane Italian American Republicans
For the GOP's sake they better hope hes not another Rick Lazio if one of em gets the GOP nod.
[ Parent ]
But still
Unless they pull a Lazio they could do quite well. Given their combo of background and youth and ideology.
[ Parent ]
A statewide appointee
Would be a joke. I'll bet that most of the folks on this site couldn't name New York's current Secretary of State. Now reach back to the Pataki era and see how well you do. The GOP would probably be best off with some relatively young assemblyman whose has faced a competitive election or two but otherwise has little to lose, not some political crony of George Pataki's.
[ Parent ]
I'll bite
Without doing a web search, I have no idea who New York's current Secretary of State is.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Here's what I would do
Barring scandal or a real huge national landslide, Gillibrand is safe.

So if I were the GOP, I would run a young rising star who could be elected down the road and get him/her some name recognition.  I would try to find a minority or a woman to send the message that the GOP is not a white male party.

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
find someone from downstate.  An Upstate Republican is going to have trouble winning statewide.
[ Parent ]
Randy Daniels
He's African American, and former SoS. Hes 59 years old and ran for Gov in 2006.  
[ Parent ]
Is Randy Daniels
responcible for all the crazy gerrymandering that caused the republican to have so many seats in the New York state senate.
[ Parent ]
A few ideas
Michael Bloomberg.  He obviously can self finance.  He's a sometime Republican (when it suits him).  He is well known statewide.

Sherwood Boehlert.  Boehlert was a long-time Representativ from Schenctady who retired in 2006 at the age of 64 bedcause national Republicans in the House failed to give him the repect that his seniority, skill, and general competence deserved.  Not a problem within New York.

Tom Golisano.  Not even as much of a Republican as Bloomberg but he could self finance and he did temporarily put Republicans back in control of the state senate.

Dean Skelos.  State Senate leader from Long Island.

Sue Kelly.  Former US Representative from northern Westchester.  Yes she lost but unlike Sweeney or many of the others, Suer Kelly was not embarassing.

[ Parent ]
MN-01
I don't expect it to be much of a race but since I live in the District it holds interest to me. Some potential opponents for Tim Walz have surfaced.

http://www.startribune.com/pol...

With Gov. Tim Pawlenty not seeking another term and a competitive race to succeed him heating up, Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau is pondering her own future.....

.....Though she said she has not been approached to run, Molnau also is being mentioned as a possible opponent of Democratic First District Congressman Tim Walz....

.... Former House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, R-Marshall, said that Molnau, along with state Sen. Julie Rosen, R-Fairmont, and Rep. Rod Hamilton, R-Mountain Lake, were most often mentioned as "dream candidates" who could raise the funds needed for a congressional race

Normally a Lt. Governor would be a top tier challenger in a Congressional race but Molnau comes with a ton of baggage. While Lt. Gov she was also head of the Minnesota Department of Transportation but was ousted in the wake of the I-35 bridge collapse. As for Rosen and Hamilton, they are a couple of back bench legislaters I have never heard of before.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Where is she even from in the district?
Her wikipedia says born in Waconia, used to live in Carver County (MN-2) and now I dont know where she calls her residency.

But yeah, she would get creamed anyway.

[ Parent ]
PA-07
Patrick Meehan passes on Governor's race, is "seriously considering" running in PA-07:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg...

Not good news. He's the one candidate the GOP has that could pick this seat up.

Wonderful
I would imagine Meehan would be a pretty big favorite to pick the seat up.  He is like a god in Delaware county.  Sestak made a colossally stupid move getting into the primary might not only jeopordize our hold on the Senate seat, but will probably cost us a House seat in a year where we will be heavily on the defense, at least turnout wise.  
[ Parent ]
Meehan
From all that has been said about the guy he definitely would be a really, really good recruit for the GOP. The GOP would have a real good chance of picking this seat up. Yeah its heavily Dem in federal races these days but a very popular, moderate Republican can win it.
[ Parent ]
Itd be something
If the GOP lost Gerlach's seat but picked this one up.
[ Parent ]
Let's not lose perspective here
While by all accounts Meehan would certainly make the race competitive, we still have a first-rate recruit of our own in the form of Bryan Lentz - maybe these whispers will spur him to move up his announcement and fundraising timetables.  

I'm really curious to hear what those with a local perspective have to say about this potential match-up.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
So, I'm going to a Republican Town Hall tomorrow morning
Michael Burgess, TX-26 (Denton). Any advice as to what I should/should not do? Event starts at 10:00 am CST. BTW, for those who do not know, Burgess was a Doctor before he was a congressman.

Let's hear the suggestions!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Err
Don't try to get into a scuffle with a right winger.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I bet town halls
In a Republican-held district, at least this summer, are more of a GOP rally than anything else.  
[ Parent ]
Bachmann's holding a town hall soon
so hopefully you have more guts than I do and you should go cause a scene.
[ Parent ]
That's Interesting
Bachmann's pretty much on of these kooky nutjobs who scream at town halls, except she does her screaming in Congress. I wonder how's that going to work out.
[ Parent ]
Make sure you show up armed
With facts, that is.

HR 3200 summary document from the majority leader's office (four pages, pdf):
http://majorityleader.gov/docU...

HR 3200 section by section analysis from the House Committee on Ways and Means (35 pages, pdf):
http://waysandmeans.house.gov/...

Not to imply that you aren't prepared, but if you've got one or both of these with you (and maybe with key portions circled/highlighted), you might be able to point to something specifically in your comments/scuffles.

We don't always win when we've got the facts on our side, but win or lose, I'd still rather we always be the ones to have the facts on our side.

Remember, the people you see are going to be genuinely upset, angry, and frustrated. It's not that they're stupid, it's that they've been deceived by con men like Glenn Beck. Doing anything to challenge them is counterproductive. Instead, you want to challenge the things they've been told. Don't confront them; disarm them.

[ Parent ]
Also
It might be worth familiarizing yourself with this:

http://waysandmeans.house.gov/...

It's a list of the organizations that have endorsed HR 3200. Among them:

- The AARP. So, it's probably unlikely that there's anything in the bill about killing senior citizens.

- The AMA. So, if the largest association of doctors supports it, it can't be all bad.

These are points I've been trying to hit on when I talk about the bill. It's not that people always trust organizations like those, but most of the time, if you get past "LIAR!!!!" people recognize that maybe it doesn't make sense for the AARP to support "Obama's Death Boards" and things like that.

[ Parent ]
Wear a cowboy hat and say 'get er dun' during the conservative chanting & yelling
Or else theyll think youre a union 'goon'.
[ Parent ]
All right, I'm back from it
60% Against, 40% for (approximately). Definitely an improvement from other town hall events. Relatively respectful. Conservatives had all the signs, so it looked like they were more than really were.  Plenty of conservatives with name tags that had bits of astroturf glued to them (har har har). Burgess seemed to be for reform and the bill when he addressed the points in long form answer. On the simple yes and noes it was "I'm against the whole thing." So it seems like he liked the thing in theory, but he's against it cause it's where he's supposed to be.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Is that not a decent sign then
Only 60-40 against in a Repub district or was it in more even area?
[ Parent ]
City of Denton
Denton County is 60% Republican, City of Denton is 65% Democratic (2 colleges). Add in all the surrounding towns on the South side of City of Denton, North of Dallas and Fort Worth that showed up, pretty promising.

There's another event happening about now in Gainsville which is Cooke County, all rural, all VERY Republican (Cooke County was 79% for McCain).

Progress for Monday, definitely.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Try To Stay Alive
That's the only advice I can think of to give you.
[ Parent ]
PPP
http://publicpolicypolling.blo... Vote on where PPP polls next week.  
Good choices
I went with Arizona, hadn't seen that one yet.

The others (especially Arkansas) were tempting though.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Colorado for me
Now that the CO GOP has another Fmr. Congressman retread to run, I'd like to see where Bennet is.
[ Parent ]
Colorado Question
Should democrats hold all their current elected statewide officials in 2010 and beat the current Republican Attorney General (last statewide elected Republican) does the CO GOP still survive or does Colorado become New Mexico 2 (or NEW New Mexico)?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Angie Paccione
Could Angie Paccione beat Michael Bennet in Colorado. I like her a lot and I think she would make a great senator.
[ Parent ]
I think she'd be a poor Senator
I watched one of her debates on CSPAN. She was a classic urban liberal. Nothing rural, pragmatic, or dynamic in my opinion. She'd be find for CO-1 I think, but not CO-4 or the state as a whole.

I think Bennett could beat her (but it'd be close). Romanoff, however, I think could run away with it.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Definitely Romanoff
I don't know if he's officially challenging Bennett in the primary. Has anyone heard anything new?
[ Parent ]
I originally suggested Arizona as the place to poll
There has been almost zero polling of Arizona since the election.  Between it having a likely competitive gubernatorial election and its potential status as a swing state in 2012, I think Arizona's worth checking up on.  


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
California
I haven't seen much Gov polling, and what to see how accurate Rasmussen's poll for Sen. They are all good, except for Arizona
Yesterday I started pondering my future and this is what I've come up with.
By May 2010 I will graduate from University of Wisconsin Green bay majoring in Political Science, Public Administration, and, if I can weave the thread on classes I need to take, Environmental Policy.  In the next five years I would like to get my masters in Public Administration, probably online courses so I could maintain a residence in either Eau Claire or Madison while still taking classes.  (Neither university has a program for Public Administration)

The two main choices I'd prefer, start in the same place.  Volunteer in the 2010 elections for local races at home in Eau Claire, there should be a couple competitive state senate seats and at least one competitive state house seat.  

After that I can stay home in Eau Claire, get a part time job and run for city council next time it is up (almost 70K population, solid base for a legislative race in Wisconsin) or try to get a job in Madison working for an organization or state legislator's aide.  

Any thoughts?  

Depends on your ultimate goal
Eau Claire is a great city to start from if you want to be a member of Congress, since it basically borders two blue districts with current members who will not be around a decade from now, but it's not great to try to be a Senator from since it has no large base that compares with Milwaukee, Madison, Green Bay/Fox Valley/Oshkosh, or Racine/Kenosha.  Wausau or La Crosse are too far away to really be considered part of a statewide base with Eau Claire.
[ Parent ]
If I could make my way to the state legislature
I could be happy doing that, if the opportunity comes early to make the jump to state senate I would give it a shot.  If I do that then in the off year (senate terms in Wisconsin are four years) I could run for congress risk free.  Most seats in the area are very swing or lean slightly to the left.

[ Parent ]
Being in the legislature is a tough life
Not much money, a lot of travel--you'd get to know I-94 very well--and separation from friends and family. Nevertheless, we need good people to do it. Good luck to you.
[ Parent ]
i don't know, if you're already a messiah
wouldn't political office be a step down?

so my first question is:  do the current office holders know you, like you, and respect you?  if they don't or even if they do, then i'd say build or continue to build some of those relationships and help local folks in '10.  

if you want to hold office, going to madison would probably make things a whole lot steeper for you since it's deep blue and will already have a long line of good people waiting for a shot at most seats there.

[ Parent ]
Sounds perfect
I've had my planned out trajectory like yourself since I started my undergrad (just finished) and everything is going to plan.

Im glad that so many of us have talked about running for office, we all have a lot more balls than most of the current ones.

[ Parent ]
What's your plan?

[ Parent ]
Well
starting law school in a week (a week and 4.5 hours to be exact, goodbye summer....) and then, well, I was going to wait to announce anything but Im running for a state house seat in 2010.  Will be open, I fit the district well, and I've got an extremely solid group of volunteers and contacts I've made over my 4 years in undergrad to help make it all happen.  Even though the one above comment said it's harder in deep blue seats (like the one Im gunning for) with so many people in line, psh.  Plenty of people have broken the line and I've made sure I have put in the leg work while I've been active to have plenty of advantages.  I did it all through College Democrats during my 4 years and have really great contacts with the peace movement that is very dominant in the DFL activist crowd.  I followed the liberal activist in me and it took me where I needed to go pretty much and helped me know who I needed to know.

So start saving up a $50 for me everyone!  Im sure I'll have everything set and ready to post my diary on it by the end of September or so.  (Hahahahaha, this wont be a Kirk or Maloney thing.)

Im going to have the busiest year of my life with law school and a campaign, meh, If you minus out 8 hours for sleep there is a solid 16 for everything, sounds good enough for me.

[ Parent ]
Ky US Senate GOP primary: RAND Paul?
Ron named his kid Rand? Good Lord. Gotta be a tough kid since had to nurture the pacifier within.

As for Hughes, I side with Kevin Smith's buttboy Jay: all the guys were pussies, except for Judd Nelson (who was harsh).

I hope it's just short for Randall or something.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Not a namesake. But he is a fan.
http://libertymaven.com/2009/0...

Yeah, it's short for 'Randal.'  But unrelatedly, he's a huge Ayn Rand fan, he says.

[ Parent ]
IA-Gov, IA-HD 90
Chet Culver stupidly waded into a controversy over atheist bus ads this week, making himself look like a spineless panderer to religious people. If he thinks this will win points from the people who are mad about gay marriage, he is so wrong.

Speaking of gay marriage, we'll get our first hint about how this issue might influence voters on September 1, when there will be a special election in Iowa House district 90. This SE Iowa district leans slightly D in voter registration but is largely rural and not "liberal." The Iowa GOP turned over the job of running this campaign to two interest groups, Iowans for Tax Relief and the Iowa Family Policy Center.

If they succeed in picking up the seat for the Republicans, expect them to be running many of the statehouse races in 2010. (Iowa Republicans have suffered net losses of seats in the state House and Senate in the last four general elections.)

The Iowa Democratic Party is organizing lots of canvassing down in House district 90, and I think unions are helping too. I am somewhat concerned, though--in a low-turnout special election it seems to me that people angry about gay marriage may be more likely to show up. I don't see Iowa Democrats really fired up about what our legislative majority has accomplished.

IA-03
After Congressman Leonard Boswell made the GOP's list of 70 House targets in 2010, Bleeding Heartland readers had a mini-debate over how vulnerable Boswell really is.

I still believe he is not vulnerable in 2010 but is highly vulnerable if he gets thrown into a redrawn IA-03 with Tom Latham in 2012.

No Republican challenger for Boswell has emerged yet. I saw a rumor on a conservative blog that Iowa GOP chairman Matt Strawn may take a crack at this seat, but I haven't seen any confirmation of that and don't find the rumor particularly credible.

November 3 will be a big day in Georgia
Gov. Sonny Perdue has set Tuesday, November 3 as the date for three current vacancies in the State House.  One seat (the 58th-Atlanta) is a lock for us.  Another (the 129th-Northern Columbus suburbs and exurbs) is a lock for the Republicans.  The remaining, the 141st, is a Democratic seat centered on Baldwin County (Milledgeville).  It's swingy on a presidential level and we don't yet have a candidate.

We might also be getting a trio of vacancies in the State Senate as well.  Unfortunately, they're all on our turf.  Fortunately, they shouldn't be that hard to defend.  Kasim Reed will be vacating the 35th (which consists of South Fulton County, parts of Douglas County, and into Atlanta a bit.  Ed Tarver (22nd-Augusta) and David Adelman (42nd-West-Central DeKalb County, including the DeKalb parts of Atlanta and Decatur) may be vacating to become U.S. Attornies.  One rumored replacement of Adelman is Jimmy Carter's grandson Jason.

I assume the Atlanta mayor's position will be filled on this day as well.  I have no thoughts on it, other than curiosity as to who will win.  It's also interesting to see if Atlanta will elect its first white mayor in like forty years.

Also up, I assume, while be the Mayor of Marietta.  This is the second or third-largest city in the Atlanta area.  It's in Cobb County, a Republican county that has gradually shifted our way.  In 1988, it was a 70-something percent Republican County; Obama only lost by nine.  One candidate is former Republican State Rep. Steve Tumlin.  Tumlin unseated Democrat Pat Dooley in 2004 in the 38th, a district that includes most of Marietta.  Dooley returned the favor last year.  However, the 38th is still very shaky for us right now.  Tumlin running for mayor, I think, makes another run at Dooley unlikely as, if he won, he'd have to quit not long into the term to start running for State rep.  And if he lost, he'd had been repudiated by the people of Marietta twice in as many years.  I'd prefer the latter, however, not only to put a suburban city in Democratic hands, but to keep Tumlin from using it as a stepping stone.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Curious why you think Atlanta
will elect a white mayor? I know the white percentage has been going up recently, but isn't the black population still a majority?
[ Parent ]
One of the frontrunners is white
Mary Norwood.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I see

[ Parent ]
Good Post
I knew about Reed and remember hearing the rumor about Adelman, which I can see considering how enthusiastic and active Adelman was early on for Obama in our great state. Didn't know that about Tarver though.

Jason Carter is one of the co-founders of Democrats Work, a highly active and very successful community service organization. I was shocked a few weeks back when a friend emailed me saying they would be down in Peach County. I thought the organization in GA worked strictly in Atlanta.

I am going to go ahead and say HD141, which is Bobby Parham's old seat, will be a GOP takeover. Parham held the seat for 34 years, but served as a conservative leaning Democrat, having endorsed Bush in 2004 and in many cases voted with the GOP over the Democratic caucus in recent years. I think Parham deserves a lot of credit for not switching. He could have chosen the route that other rural and Conservative Democrats like Parrish, Royal and Channell among others, and switch parties. Instead, Parham stuck it out, trying to keep the old coalition alive in hopes of bringing back a Democratic majority. I believe this leaves Hanner and Greene as the only Conservative-leaning Democrats still in the House Caucus from the old super majority days. It is both amazing and unfortunate to see how quickly the caucus has changed in such a short time.

A ton of municipal races are going on this November. Here in Middle/South GA a ton of small town Mayoral and City Council seats are up.

I think the only way Atlanta elects a white Mayor is if Reed and Borders both end up being strong candidates, therefore splitting the black vote and allowing Norwood to sneak by.

[ Parent ]
I don't think HD-141 is that certain of a loss
Like I said, it's swingy at worst.  Obama won it and John Kerry and Al Gore did well there.  We just need a candidate.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Where
Just curious, but where are you getting the statistics for state legislative districts and the Presidential vote? I'd like to see how my SH and SS districts have changed.

You could very well be right. I think one important question is will Parham endorse the Democratic nominee (if we field a candidate)? He could do like Robert Ray did a couple of years back when he retired from his rural seat in Crawford/Peach county. He ending up endorsing Republican Tony Sellier over Democrat Beth Perera.

[ Parent ]
No district statistics.
The district is all of Baldwin County plus a tiny bit of Putnam.  You can see the map here: http://2010garacetracker.wetpa...

Obama won Baldwin and I doubt that little bit of Putnam is enough to move the arrow enough in McCain's direction.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Check
I'd look at that again about Putnam.

That area went the highest for McCain, 81.39%, though that's skewed a bit because that precinct is divided into two seats.

Still though, while that Putnam County party would not sway it to McCain, there's no doubt it could be the deciding factor in a House race.  

[ Parent ]
True
I meant that that small portion of Putnam was so small that even at an extreme McCain bent, it wouldn't be enough to tip the district.  It only cast like 245 votes in the state representative race.  I may be wrong, but even if it were enough to tip the balance of the district, I doubt it would be enough to tip it really far.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 68 comments

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