What’s with all the prominent Republicans unable to even make it through their first terms? Today Mel Martinez joins the club of lame-duck GOPers unwilling to be dead fish going with the flow, and instead is going to maverick his way on up and out of the Senate:
He made the announcement at a morning staff meeting, where he said he will not be returning to the Senate after the August recess.
Martinez announced he wasn’t seeking re-election to the Senate last December, but he had insisted that he would be serving out the remainder of his term, which expires in 2011.
Martinez is reportedly interested in the presidency of Florida St. University, which opened up in June. So he may already have lined that up, or maybe he’s just decided to jump out of the plane first and find out the color of his parachute on the way down. (Can life in the minority really be that bad?) Well, like the refrigerator magnet says, he doesn’t need to explain himself to his enemies.
So now the big question is: what does Charlie Crist do? Florida doesn’t have a fast special election law like Texas, so Crist has to appoint someone for the remaining year and a half of Martinez’s term. With Crist already running for the open seat in 2010, there’s certainly the possibility he could appoint himself. He’ll have to weigh, though, whether that would help or hurt him for 2010, whether any incumency advantage he’d gain would outweigh the perceived impropriety of appointing himself. If he doesn’t appoint himself, who’s a likely elder-statesperson placeholder he might appoint? He wouldn’t want to appoint anyone who might turn around and decide to stay in the Senate, and he wouldn’t want to appoint anyone too moderate either, as he doesn’t want to rile up an already hostile Republican base, seeing as how his most immediate problem in 2010 is getting past Marco Rubio’s primary challenge from the right. (Discussion underway in DTMB!‘s diary.)
UPDATE (James L.): The Associated Press confirms that Crist will not appoint himself to the big show. Smart move on his part — right now, he’s the likely GOP nominee and the likely Senator-elect come November 2010. A self-appointment would only create controversy.
LATER UPDATE: The Palm Beach Post fingers FSU Board of Trustees Chairman (and ex-state AG) Jim Smith as Crist’s likely choice for placeholder.
RaceTracker Wiki: FL-Sen
The benefits of incumbency come from name recognition and the ability to raise money. In this case, being a Senator wouldn’t help in either of those areas.
Appointing himself would force him to make some moderate vs conservative choices now (especially when it comes to health care) that I think he’d prefer to straddle until after the 2010 election. He doesn’t want to come off as hard right (and further, he’s not!), but he also doesn’t want to hand Rubio any further ammunition. He’s already one step away from having birthers teabag each other in his driveway!
You’re right that he would have to get a beyond iron-clad committment from someone he appoints that this is just for the next year. I think it would also have to be someone pretty conservative, or else he’d hand Rubio an issue.
NPR just said Crist would not appoint himself.
“Crist, boarding a plane to Tampa Friday, said he would not appoint himself to replace Martinez, but declined to discuss the issue further.”
http://www.npr.org/templates/s…
but if Crist had appointed himself, the LG, Jeff Kottkamp, would have become governor:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L…
If McCollum was next in line and could have run as the incumbent (as is the case with Jan Brewer in Arizona), this could have impacted the Governor’s race.
He’s a former Dem. In this Congress, Martinez has been a lot more conservative than I would’ve expected. Smith might be a significant improvement. And if he’s a moderate, that gives ammo to Rubio.
http://www.humanevents.com/art…
Notice the third paragraph of the Palm Beach Post story:
To which I asked:
Any thoughts?
Nate Silver is suggesting rumors that former GOP Governor Bob Martinez (no relation to Mel) seems like the concensus choice to be a placeholder until 2010.
he is only 68
It seems like in the last few years anyway, voters have responded negatively to people bolting early (unless they were getting a promotion). First of course you had Dennis Hastart and Richard Baker, in which we won their seats even though we probably didn’t have any business doing so otherwise. Then you have the case of Trent Lott where while we weren’t able to pick up his Senate seat, we did make the Rs sweat for it more than we should have and we picked up Roger Wicker’s old House seat in a district where we couldn’t have had less business even seriously competitive.
There aren’t enough examples available in recent times to say with certainty that untimely resignations result in a drop-off in support for the resignee’s would-be same-party replacement, and local factors along with Republican chicanery certainly played a role in these races as well, but I trouble imagining that it’s a total non-issue for voters.
He would get alot of goodwill from the conservative base if he appointed ol Jebediah Bush. But not gonna happen. As ol Jebbie is making way too much money in the private sector. Some names, although these obviously arent rumors or anything…and those already in the senior years:
Rep. Cliff Stearns, 68. A staunch North FL conservative. In Congress since 1989
Ex-U.S. Rep. Michael Bilirakis, 79. Represented a Tampa-area district. U.S. Rep from 83-07. But he may be comfortably retired back home in FL.
U.S. Rep C.W. ‘Bill’ Young, 78. The dean of the FL congressional delegation. Served in Congress since 1971. And while he comes from the swingiest of swing areas and is an institution…he may be considered ‘too moderate’. If Crist werent running for Sen. himself and wanted to appoint a moderate placeholder I bet Young would be at the top of his list. But since he wants to appease diehard conservatives then Young could very well be at the bottom. Though Young is certainly no liberal Republican by any means. Probably more in the Richard Lugar/John Warner vein of old school, mainstream, moderate conservative.
Ex-Sen. Cornelius Alexander McGillicuddy III. AKA Ex-Sen. Connie Mack III. Sorry, I just had to do that ;). 68 years old. Served in the Senate from 89-01. Im sure hed be a good, safe choice but would he even care to make a return? Im sure Crist can argue, ‘well youd be spending alot of good, quality time with your son and daughter-in-law!’ given that theyre both also on Capitol Hill.
Ex-Rep. Clay Shaw, Jr. 70 years old. Served in Congress from 81-07. Maybe hed be a safe, conservative choice…but usually defeated congressmen are thrown away like old newspaper. And if he didnt care to take on Ron Klein in a re-match he probably wouldnt care to return to DC as a placeholder Senator.
Ex-Gov. Bob Martinez. 74 years old. Gov. from 87-91. Is actually of Spaniard decent, if I am correct. He lost re-election but that was nearly 20 years ago. Maybe that is all forgotten now. He is a named thats been bandied around as a replacement.
Im sure I could dig deeper but eh.