Rooney is definately vulnerable

He only won because of a scandal

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by: jmartin4s @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 01:07:04 AM UTC

I agree

The margin of his victory in 2008 is meaningless.  There seems to be this myth that Rooney is a "tough" candidate.  This is not the first time I've heard it on SSP.  

Rooney was set to get pasted by Mahoney before the scandal broke.  Mahoney was up 25 in a Republican poll on 10/9/08.  The national Republicans had pulled out of the race.  Then the scandal broke and Rooney was up 26 by 10/16/08.  The 50-point swing did not happen because of Rooney's good looks, charm, or "toughness."  It happened because Mahoney is a scumbag whose scumbaggery was exposed.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 10:52:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who called him "tough"?

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by: James L. @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 16:48:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

You called him a "pretty challenging incumbent" and someone else jumped down my throat on this site a few months ago for suggesting Rooney was vulnerable.  Said commenter suggested that Rooney was positioned to beat Mahoney pre-scandal, which is flat wrong.  

I really don't know why I used the word "tough" in quotes though.  I think I was badly misquoting your "pretty challenging."  To much ganja and too early in the morning.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 17:31:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL

Sounds like a good candidate.

Any chance Gelber drops out of the AG race and runs in a house race?  What district does he live in?

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 13:57:20 PM UTC

Mahoney was a douschbag. We were all happy his ass was getting the boot.

Glad Rooney isn't getting a second free election in a row.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 14:24:56 PM UTC

I would not be surprise

if Rooney looses by anywhere from 15 to 20 points

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by: jmartin4s @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 15:39:35 PM UTC

FL

What in the world makes you say this?  Mahoney hardly won with Foley still on the ballot for gods sakes.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 15:45:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think he's jokingly assuming scandal, you know, third times the charm? But I could be wrong.

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 15:48:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's taking it a little far.

This is a historically Republican district.  It will be a close one if Craft wins it.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 17:32:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

it's a 51/49 district at present

The foreclosures and such make it tricky to guess which way.

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by: Baystater @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 21:04:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2000,2004,2008

Gore-47%
Kerry-46%
Obama-47%

All Craft has to do is run 3 points better than the average democrat.
It will also have a lot to do with how Kendrick Meek and Alex Sink perform in the district in their runs for senate and governor.
If we do pick up seats in Florida the three most likely house seats I think we can pick up are FL 10,13,16

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by: jmartin4s @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 18:16:51 PM UTC

Do you mean

12 instead of 13? We have a reasonable shot in the 12th with the open seat, but the 13th isn't really a target this year... well, barring an indictment for Vern Buchanan, in which case we'd have an interesting race, but I don't think things are moving in that direction for him.

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by: Crisitunity @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 18:34:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I meant 13

I think Buchanan is definatly vulnerable especially since he stole the election 2006 for his house seat.

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by: jmartin4s @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 19:38:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which is why 2008 was so close, right?

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 06:48:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]