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MN-06: Tinklenberg Drops Out

by: James L.

Tue Aug 04, 2009 at 12:23 PM EDT


From Tink's campaign website:

I am announcing that as of today I am terminating my campaign for Congress. This is obviously not an easy decision for me, but I have come to the conclusion that its the right one. While the image of the next campaign against Michele Bachmann is certainly energizing, the path to that campaign is becoming increasingly improbable. I'm proud of our last campaign. We did better than almost anyone outside the campaign expected. We built a national support base and proved that a strong Democrat with enough time and resources could win in the Sixth District.

Now, however, we are faced with the prospect of the next thirteen months being a battle among Democrats. In a difficult district during tough financial times we will be spending large amounts of time and money trying to defeat each other rather than defeating Michele Bachmann. That is not a campaign I want to wage nor is it the kind of campaign that strengthens our chances of electing a Democrat next fall.

Say what you will about Tinklenberg, but he did do something that most candidates don't -- and that was to generously donate $250,000 to the DCCC earlier this year -- scrilla that will be put to good use, I'm sure.

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James L. :: MN-06: Tinklenberg Drops Out
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This reminds me of Larry Grant (ID-01) last cycle.
Good deal.  

Yeah, what happened there?
Not that I'm complaining, since we now have Representative Walt Minnick.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Wow
That's great.  Stand up move by Tinklenberg.

Class act.
This makes me like the guy even more.  And it says volumes about how strong a candidate Tarryl Clark will be.  I've gotta meet her people at the DFL booth at the Fair.

Damn, I wish I had predicted this aloud
As i was definitely wondering if he'd actually continue with the race.  But  with all the back and forth over this race and great SSP/netroot friends working for Tink, I figured it would be kind of pompous to do so.

This makes it quite obvious that Clark already has the DFL nomination wrapped up, we certainly will not nominate Reed, frickin Independence Party who costs us every gubernatorial race, and she was even on the ticket as the LG pick!  There is certainly a bitterness involved and is a reason why many of us want instant run-off voting.

I will certainly second James as even actual representatives from über safe districts wouldn't give the DCCC 250,000.  Tink certainly made a race of it and certainly shouldve been our nominee in 06 instead of Wetterling (she played off poorly with voters too young to know all about her sons kidnapping.). The sentiment over at the blog MNPublius is that he'd already be a Congressman if Wetterling had stayed out.      


Question about Clark
Is she "sufficiently conservative" enough on guns and abortion for the district?  If not, I'm afraid she runs the risk of getting just pasted on those issues.

Not sure on individual issues
But everything I've heard about her voting record is that it is pretty damn liberal.  That'll be her major flaw as a candidate, she is not a moderate by any means.  She is second in command of the state senate and is the face for that chamber.  She certainly couldn't stray from the party's position as the main spokesperson for those positions.  

Pro-choice is somewhat damaging (and it's a safe bet she is), being seen as someone who will take guns away would be a killer.  But DFLers know how to work that issue, it's the only way to get elected in such a big hunting state.


[ Parent ]
None of this is making me feel good about her chances.
I mean, I get that activists are excited about her, but we're talking about some of the same people who went ga-ga for Ashwin Madia here...

[ Parent ]
Gotta agree with James here
Andrew, you know this area as well as anyone -- do you really see them electing a liberal to Congress, regardless of how good of a candidate she might be (and how wacky Bachmann is)?  And I think it's even made worse by being the face of the DFL in the state senate.  Hopefully Clark can prove me wrong, but I'm just afraid we're both blowing an opportunity here, and sinking a lot of resources into an area where someone who is not pro-gun and pro-life really, really has an uphill climb in the best of political climates.

[ Parent ]
This is a different type of race though
The election wont be about the issues as regardless of the candidate, we will NEVER win on the issues in MN-6.  The race is about Bachmann being an ineffective Congresswoman and her being an embarrassment and Tink couldnt drive that home while Clark can and has already started doing so.  (Id love a Meet My Opponent, Rep. Bachmann section on her website, that'd be free media, one of a kind, damaging, and all you'd need to do is link to youtube videos).  That's where difference is importance and is how MInnick and Markey became Congresspersons they definitely didnt win on the issues.

And to settle a few worries, Clark's senate district is most likely pro-life and extremely pro-gun rights (that's where my entire family is from so that's an educated guess.)  It was 50-50 in 04, Obama won it comfortably (Im gonna do a bunch of data crunching and figure some shit though, there is a huge univ. in the district so I wonder what'll happen when they all stay home)  I really dont see her pro-choice positions actually being that damaging now that I think about it because anyone who votes based off the abortion issue is going to be voting Republican, its what they're used to now.  Gun control would be a killer because that is an issue moderates/independents/undecideds will rely on.  Like I've said before, Democrats like Klobuchar won this district and she just helped kill that conceal and carry amendment.  It's an issue that is extremely easy to be moderate about and be able to appease both sides.  But like I said, if this race comes down to the issues, we're getting our asses kicked then as Bachmann would be a safe incumbent if she didnt show up on talkshows because her positions are pretty spot on for this district.

Clark's electoral resume is also what makes her better than Madia and Madia wasn't a bad candidate because of the issues, he was more spot on than any of the other candidates when it came to the issues.  He lost because people liked Paulsen and trusted him as their representative and there is a very strong argument that that resulted from the election being about the economy instead of Iraq.  That is also where Clark needs to draw the distinction, who do you trust more to get shit done for you in DC, that woman who constantly makes an ass of herself on tv, or me.

Tink did his job, but defending him and rooting for him is just so baseless.  Boring grandpa couldnt make the case to voters while Clark has that fiery populism type of speaking.  (You wont see that from her announcement video though, that thing is WEAK and Ive seen her do much better.)  The only reason Tink got within 3% was because of Bachmann's mouth and he couldnt even capitalize on it like he should have.  (Didnt see a single attack ad from that campaign, or maybe I did and it was just way too weak as the DCCC's were pretty bad.)

Not to mention, Clark is from St Cloud which is a little bastion of blue out in the middle of extremely Republican counties.  Bachmann and Tink are both from suburbs of Minneapolis/St. Paul and she is going to be able to play that up.  Hometown sentiment will help.


[ Parent ]
I hope you're right
I'm still skeptical, but that's not important.  She's going to be the Democratic candidate (unless something very unexpected happens), so it's time to support her.  And if she wins, the district gets what sounds like a really good congresswoman.

[ Parent ]
And
I'd say it's pretty likely that Clark would get a much better district after the lines are redrawn in 2010.

[ Parent ]
A thing pointed out on DKos
was that MN-6 has a relatively low turnout rate.  Republicans have the religious conservatives and their vote well organized in the district, on which basis they win.

The situation seems a lot like it was in a lot of the country in 2005 or 2006 or so.  A lot of places had been electing Republicans for so long that Democrats had become passive.  Then when they went looking after the '04 Bush campaign- registration drives, door knocking, all that- they found that Republicans had maxed out in the electorate in 2004.  The people who were passive were heavily Democratic leaners.


[ Parent ]
That's a good point
I have nothing but a strong gut feeling about this, but I think the same thing happened here in Indiana last year.  We especially improved in the cherry-red exurbs of Indianapolis, where Repubublican margins were basically cut from 3-1 to 2-1.  Democrats opened a campaign office in Hamilton County (wealthy north-Indy 'burbs) for the first time in like 20 years.  We didn't come close to winning it, but cut the margins enough to carry the state.  The moral of the story -- If you want people to vote for you, you have to ask them (usually several times!).  

[ Parent ]
Any chance of the Dems knocking off
Crazy Dan Burton in a good year? Perhaps 2012. It went for Bush in 04 by like 43% but it swung heavily for Obama. McCain won it by 19%. Burton is so unpopular that even the GOP base doesnt like him.

[ Parent ]
Not in that district
His district is a combo of very Republican suburbs and very Republican rural areas.  It would take sometime along the lines of Bill Jefferson-like criminal activity for him to be ousted.  He's already done and said just about every crazy thing possible, and he's still there.  

There are like four credible candidates running against him in the GOP primary already, which most likely allows him to slip through.  If any one of them took him on heads-up, I'd say he'd have at best a 50-50 shot of winning, as you're right -- most sane Republicans hate him, and he's had a years-long running battle with the Indianapolis Star.

That said, who knows what his district will look like in 2012.  If the Republicans go for the redistricting Big Enchilada and further carve up Marion County, that means he would get large chunks of pretty heavily Democratic areas (he already has about 20% or so of the county, but it is some of the most Republican parts of it).


[ Parent ]
I see
I had a feeling thats the case. And even if the Dem were to somehow win theyd probably be a one-termer, like in my district TX-22. Lampson was not a great campaigner by any means but he was a solid conservative Dem (though being pro-life would have helped him, even though Roe v Wade would never get touched in the House) and probably the only one who could win in this district short of perhaps Mayor Bill White himself (not saying he even has a home in my district, just using him as an example).  

[ Parent ]
Houston
And true, Houston is only a small part of my district (in fact i was raised in that part, known as Clear Lake City, which is very conservative suburbs). But he seems popular in the non-Houston suburbs, too.

[ Parent ]
I actually know a guy
Whos an evangelical living in Litchfield, which is in Peterson's but close to Bachmann's district. So Im not surprised theres alot of social conservatives in that area.

[ Parent ]
Where is her website?
I was going to see if she had any netroots outreach but couldn't find a campaign website.  Google shows me her Facebook page and her YouTube campaign announcement but that's all.

The DKos crowd today was all 'well, El's out, no chance left in this race'.  Pretty grumpy crowd.  I'd like to see Clark do some well-timed outreach there, but no way to send her campaign that thought...


[ Parent ]
Rybak
Rybak, as a mayor of a large city, i am assuming is very pro-gun control so maybe he will need to moderate on it if he gets the nom. in the Gov. race. Kind of like Gillibrand in reverse.  

[ Parent ]
A Good Democrat
That, my friends, is party loyalty.  If we had more Democrats like Tinklenberg (cough Carolyn Maloney), the party would be in better shape.

A tip of my hat to Mr. Tinklenberg.  


This guy deserves a job
I'm sure there's some high-level position open in the Department of Transportation or something like that?  (If he wants to move to DC...)  This kind of move should really be rewarded.  

And ideally, he should be put in a position where he can force Michele Bachmann to live in a socialist urban compound and take mass transit to work.


Hmmmm
Maybe he'll be made Transportation Commissioner in MN again if the DFL wins as with a new DFL Governor and a developing light rail system, he'd certainly be able to do a ton.

[ Parent ]
Rare standup act
How often does this happen so early in the process? It's a good call, but it took a lot of humility and integrity.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


Brunner and Mongiardo take note


[ Parent ]
Didn't Brunner even say she's leaving the SoS post?
Can she change her mind at this point?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
They both are putting themselves ahead of their party.
Brunner has no problem flushing away hard-fought redistricting control in order to pursue her personal ambition.  The only way this works out well for both Brunner and the party is if:
1) Brunner wins the Senate primary (50% likelihood at best)
2) Brunner wins the Senate general election (60% likelihood at best)
3) A Democrat wins the open seat SOS race (50% likelihood?)

The odds of all 3 happening are 50% x 60% x 50% = 15%.


[ Parent ]
I wonder
can't help but wonder if those of you who claim that Brunner and Mongiardo are putting themselves before the party feel the same way about Sestak.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
I think clearly Sestak is putting himself first
But slightly different scenario whereas he is raising competitive money while Conway and Fisher have a much more significant advantage. And losing OH-Sec.State would really hurt.

[ Parent ]
And personally I'd rather Sestak have stayed put
But I can certainly understand why he is doing it and why people are supporting him over Specter.

[ Parent ]
significant advantage
you might want to ask Jim Craig what good his "significant advantage" over Carol Shea Porter did for him.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Well statewide in Ohio and Kentucky is very different
To going door to door in New Hampshire but I take your point.

[ Parent ]
Sestak is risking control of PA-07
and his run may be ill-advised as well.  But, Brunner is risking control of state legislative redistricting in Ohio, which will involve the drawing of 132 districts. These two situations are not in any way equivalent.

[ Parent ]
I agree completely
Brunner and Sestak aren't exactly comparable. Yet they may in fact be after all.  

If I'm correct, Republicans hold the PA State Senate, and the PA house is very very close in numbers.  With PA-7 open an in basically toss up status, the most likely candidate is Brian Lentz, a state Rep, thus making that seat open as well.  

So with a competetive Governor's race, the state senate in GOP hands and a close state house, do you really think we're in a good position for redistricting in PA, state level or otherwise???  Sestak's run makes that position even more tenuous.  

Mongiardo on the other hand is a perfect example.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
You do have a good point about Lentz
since he won his state house seat with only 55% in 2008, indicating it is a swing district. You are correct that Sestak's decision does not help the Dems with redisricting in PA. And, holding the PA House is definitely critical.

I still think the impact is more direct in Ohio, though, since Brunner holds the deciding vote on the commission.  The chance of the OH commission ending up 3-2 GOP is greater than the chance of the PA House ending up 102-101 GOP.


[ Parent ]
I'll agree completely
I guess the real purpose of my whole post was more or less to prove to myself, if nothing more, that I'm not the only one who thinks that Sestak is putting Sestak first and that this run is, in general, bad for the Democratic party.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Some non-sequitur comments in this thread
The guy got out because he couldn't win.  "Stand up" has nothing to do with anything.  All this is reflects on how Minnesota is a special case because primaries don't normally decide things.

This party needs candidates who win in tough districts, and you get people like that who win tough (relatively clean) primaries.  We now get a candidate who may be too liberal for the district, but we won't know that till the general election.

Primaries are good in tough districts, and in deep blue districts, but Tink wasn't going to get a primary.


[ Parent ]
How does a less competitive primary/etc. make Tarryl Clark too liberal?
Common sense says she can gravitate toward the center earlier rather than later now that the competition just got lighter and the primary is less of a big deal than it was before.  

[ Parent ]
The now we get a candidate too liberal for the district mentality
is incorrect.  This is a solid GOP district, ANY Democrat is going to be too liberal for this district, period.  And saving our time by choosing a less liberal candidate isnt doing any us any good.  If people vote by the issues, they are going to vote Bachmann.

[ Parent ]
bachmann is like cubin, j schmidt, musgrave
and if she loses this race it will be because it is a referendum on her.  tinkleneberg was lazy and ran a horseshit campaign.  on the issues he was a good fit, but no one was ever going to find out from him.  wetterling was a cipher, but not a good campaigner.  both relied on the  DCCC too much and never established themselves.

clark is a very attractive, smart, experienced senator who is ready to take the battle to bachmann (the way walz - another guy too liberal for his district) did.

she is an underdog against bachmann, but she's probably our best candidate.  and i don't know how liberal her votes have been in her 3 years in the senate.  


The key difference
between a guy like Walz and Clark is that Walz had no voting record to attack.

[ Parent ]

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