Andy Harris

is our best chance to get Frank Kratovil reelected. Please NRCC, help Andy Harris win the Republican primary.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 02:42:49 AM UTC

First District Voters

I can't imagine they'd give it to him again. Pipkin is supposedly looking at a run and I wouldn't be surprised if Jeannie Haddaway jumps in. Both of them are from the Shore.

Harris also wasn't exactly cleaning up in the fundraising department so far this year either.

Also Young Guns... could you get a more (conservative stereotype), (conservative stereotype), gun-loving name?

20 M MD-01

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by: mahimahi1414 @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 02:57:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

3 way race against 2 Eastern Shore Republicans

That's how Andy Harris squeaked through last time. Those who voted for Harris in the primary in 2008 will vote for him again in 2010.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:16:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think BOTH will run though

But who knows. The Maryland Republican party is such a mess right now.

Brief recap for those outside the state: In the past month or so the Chairman has made a series of comments criticizing Republican lawmakers ineffectiveness, fired the executive director for no reason, refused to step down even though 2/3 of the exec committee asked him to do so but the exec committee did not call for a special convention to remove him when they had the chance, and pretty much everything that goes on in these meetings gets leaked onto blogs.

On top of that, the Republicans best candidate for Governor (besides former Governor Bob Ehrlich who I doubt will run) is ineligible because he has not been registered in the state for five years (Good thing there's been all this news about checking people's eligibility :) )

So I'm feeling confident about the infrastructure in Maryland going into 2010. Not to mention we will have likely have FOUR well-funded non-competitive statewide elections (assuming Ehrlich does not run for Comptroller) in 2010 who can just dump resources into Kratovil's race since there will likely not be anything else going on in the state (unless maybe Casey Clark can continue raising a good amount of money). That is an advantage Frank Kratovil will have that very few other Democrats can claim.

20 M MD-01

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by: mahimahi1414 @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 04:33:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who is number 2 to Erlich?

I'm wondering, who is this other person who would be the Republicans second best chance at going after O' Malley besides Erlich. I do know there is some chatter over Ann Arundel County executive John Leopord (I remember reading a Washingtion Post article on him after the 2006 elections). He was one of the rare sucesses for the GOP in Maryland that cycle, winning a position that was previously held by a term limited Democrat. Of course, AA county is typically GOP leaning with statewide and presidential GOP candidates usually getting around 55% of the vote: Obama's 48% in the county was rather extraditory.

Having a base in a fairly large county is a good position for Leopold to start in: if he can get numbers approaching the typical two thirds vote that Democrats usually get in Montgomery County then his statewide chances would improve considerably. On the other hand I he is much more likely to run for reelection to his current position and if he runs for a statewide office it will be in 2014 (he will probably be too old for anything beyond that).

One interesting thing is that Leopold had a decent political career in Hawaii, which is where he was born, which is why I thought you were initially talking about Leopold when u said that a strong GOP candidate is unable to run because of not meeting residentcy requriments. But Leopold was in the MD House of Deleages for over 20 years before he was elected to his county executive position, so there is no way that he has yet to meet a 5 year residency requriment. So who is this person.. I'm curious to see if this GOP transplat will look into running for an office in 2014.

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by: Jaxx Raxor @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 01:03:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

extraditory?

Is there such a word?  I couldn't find a meaning on dictionary.com

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by: Bluer Ohio @ Sat Aug 01, 2009 at 01:13:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think "extraordinary" was intended.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Sat Aug 01, 2009 at 01:30:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

HI-01

Seems like a waste of money. Yeah, yeah, Bush received 47% of the vote there in '04. They're counting on extremely low hispanic turnout in CA-47.  

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by: panhandler @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 02:49:48 AM UTC

Good luck with that.

Sanchez is no stranger to Vietnamese challengers and has courted the Vietnamese vote in the district. They like her, even voting for her against Tan Nguyen in 2006.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:10:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's kind of absurd

They're counting on a repeat of LA-2. All they need is a hurricane to delay the election for a month and for Sanchez to be indicted on 16 charges of corruption.

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by: panhandler @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:17:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Try Jane Harman instead.

Or whoever it was who was involved in that recent corruption scandal.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:20:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It helps if the scandal comes with a funny visual

like money in a freezer

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:25:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

LOL!

Good luck counting on a hurricane! The water off the California coast is too cold for hurricanes, and I very much doubt even a major earthquake will delay the election for a month.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:41:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Plus

California reserves crazy jungle primaries only for special elections.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:54:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A few questionable picks there

I really don't see Sanchez or Heinrich losing.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:04:52 AM UTC

True

Sanchez, I really doubt it since she was gerrymandered to get the most favorable district to a Republican in the Orange country district. I guess their trying to replicate our strategy, go after seats that they have no business winning to keep us on the defensive.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:16:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thats got to be the only reason for it.

Because I just shake my head when I read about seats like CA-47 or HI-1.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:28:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The two of them did have fairly good fundraising quarters

so there must be something behind their hype. Not that I see either winning.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:51:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

HI-1 for the Repubs

is comparable to ID-1 or NE-3 was for the Dems in 2006.  The Dems didn't expect to win, just expand the playing field.  

Although Bill Sali did lose in ID-1 in 2008.  If the Dems put up an equivalent to Bill Sali, Djou may have a chance.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 16:57:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How many Democrats lose due to being bad political fits

as a percentage of Democratic losses, versus Republicans?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 17:05:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very few

And I'm not sure that the Republicans have been rehabilitated enough to win in a Democratic district even against a real hard core leftie.  But they may have a chance.

The only one that I can remember is Bill Jefferson who lost due to corruption.  Maybe you can make a case that Ashwin Madia lost an Obama district because he was a bad fit in 2008.  

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by: JSmith @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 17:20:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even with Julia Carson and Nikki Tsongas

Their close races werent because the Dems were too liberal. But other reasons.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 23:20:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seems right, though

HI-01 and CA-47 were added to the GOPs big list a lot sooner than ID-01 and NE-03 were for the Dems in 2006 if memory serves.  The latter two seem to have gotten the attention of Rahm and co when they started looking interesting: this time the GOP seems to be consciously wanting to make them targets early on.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 17:34:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think it really works like that

I doubt that it's all that easy to "force" a race to be competitive.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 21:22:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you have decent well funded candidates you can at least get on the radar

and hope you can at least divert some resources from your opponent.  At the very least these two Republicans have won races in the district already.  Of course I doubt they'll win or even get that close.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 01:37:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

They wont

Hahnneman, Hanabusa, and a few others are all really good candidates.  We'd have to have five or six candidates decline before the cupboard was spare enough to really worry.  

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 17:45:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think Dems have much to worry about there either

I'm just saying that it makes sense that the NRCC would think it can get lucky in HI-01 due to Djou's relatively good fund raising.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 18:19:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

HI voters

HI voters may think the same way about congressional elections as voters in states with 1 district. As we saw in VT, back in 06, the Republican actually had a decent chance of winning. Despite the states now overwhelmingly Dem lean. If she had won against Welch and won re-election shed have represented a district that went 37% for Obama. Chet Edwards district didnt even go that high for McCain. I wont use Cau as an example given the situation involved. Although his victory was most certainly a huge, huge upset. Also WY's last two elections are a good example, although a 10 pt. defeat is still a big loss. And given that a state only has 2 CD's then they may look at Cong. elections similarly. By judging more on the individuals rather than the party and which party is in control, etc. But despite all this and Bush's good showing in 04 it will be hard for the GOP to win it. Unless there is a major scandal involving the Dem nominee.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 23:16:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, Cao basicaly had the press, the establishment, and everything working for him

and he still won by a hair.

Though I suspect that probably a majority of Jefferson's votes are due to the voters simply wanting a Democrat there, and voting based on party affiliation.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 00:30:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There were liberal Democrats

on daily Kos writing pro-Cao diaries before the runoff.  I doubt Jefferson got even 5% of the white vote in that runoff.  

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by: JSmith @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 15:10:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know...

Vermont has a rich history of voting for Republicans on the state level, although admittedly that's changed in recent years. Hawaii, on the other hand, has almost no history of voting for Republicans, particularly in congressional elections.
And regardless of that, Abercrombie's challenger in '08 got what, 20%? Not even?

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by: NJCentrist @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 00:30:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

About 20%.

CNN's page ( http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20... ) says that Abercrombie got 76% and Evans got 20%.  Don't know where the change went, though.

Also, rather humorously, while searching for this I found the following: a request to the U.S. Congress to dismiss Abercrombie's re-election.  Apparently, it was dismissed on the basis that Abercrombie's dodging a debate by the other guy (named "Steve Tataii"?  I thought the guy's last name was "Evans") is not sufficient reason to throw out an election.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 00:51:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

to contest his re-election, I should have said

so as no to overuse the word "dismiss".

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 00:52:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I looked it up, too

Steve Tataii was Abercrombie's opponent. Roger B. Evans was Rep. Mazie Hirono's opponent. Both got under 20% of the vote.
Another humorous discovery:  In the Hawaii State Senate, there are exactly two Republicans. And yes, they call themselves the Majority Leader and the Majority Whip. Haha.

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by: NJCentrist @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 01:57:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I mean...

...Minority Leader and Minority Whip.

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by: NJCentrist @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 01:59:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

lol!

Must be lonely for the two of them.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 03:34:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thats just too funny

And really...the real fight in HI is probably between the moderate/conservative wing of the HI Dem caucus and the liberal wing. Kind of like in MA and RI.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 07:13:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And suppose those 2 Repubs get knocked out

And the GOP is left with none in the State Senate. When was the last time a major party has had no member in a State House or State Senate? Im sure somewhere in the formerly 'Solid South', although not in TN and AR and GA and NC where there has probably always been pro-Republican sentiment somewhere. Especially east Tennessee. Not too many places in the world where theres a fully democratic one party rule. Other than for local city councils and the such.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 07:17:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't see Heinrich losing either

Of course one should keep in mind that Heinrich is the first Democrat to ever hold NM-01 (interestingly enough) and it wasn't that long ago that it was a swing district (Kerry only barely carried the district 50-49 last time around) so it's not completely absurd that the Republicans would put some money into the race.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:57:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't either

Barring a wave or a scandal.  But if I were Pete Sessions I would try to get lucky and take out Heinrich before he's entrenched.  Besides, it may be a little demoralizing to potential contributors to the NRCC if they were seen letting swing districts (or formally swing districts at least) like this go pretty much uncontested.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 04:04:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just as long

as there's not a Green Party candidate that siphons off 10+% of the vote. But that usually happens in NM-03, not NM-01.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 12:03:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heinrich voted for Waxman- Markey

So at the very least he should be safe from any Green Party challenger.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 14:48:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Every time I read/hear "Markey" I think of Betsy, not Ed

Is this bad? [y/n]

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 17:04:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I do too, actully

Would have been kind of funny if Betsy had voted against Ed's bill.

Hopefully Betsy will be in Congress long enough for more of us to continue to get confused!

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 17:36:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

not me

of course, thats cause I live in Massachusetts...lol

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 22:54:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, NM-03 is where the Greens are pretty strong

They get a lot of support from places like Santa Fe and Taos (both being extremely liberal areas) but the Green Party really hasn't been much of an issue here in the Albuquerque area (and, as others have already pointed out, particularly not with someone like Heinrich).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 18:47:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pearce

Pearce's inclusion is hilarious not only because of his age but because he is the exact opposite of an up-and-comer.  Up-and-comers are those with great potential for higher office.  Losing a Senate race by twenty-two is the perfect antonym of "up-and-comer".

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by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:49:49 AM UTC

Maybe

It was one of those ol fashioned political 'ribs' ;). 'Oh you got me good there, Pete!'.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 06:25:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Steve Pearce, 62, "Young Gun"

http://newmexicoindependent.co...

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by: tparty @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 16:19:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Due to a clerical error, the NRCC inadvertently placed

Steve Pearce in Young Guns instead of Grumpy Old Men.  The NRCC regrets this error.

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by: DCal @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 17:43:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, Well

Imitation is thee sincerest form of flattery.  The DCCC has been doing this sort of thing for a couple of cycles now.  Good luck trying to get motley crew to the finish line.

How is the birth of an elephant the same as today's Republican party:  It is accompanied by a great deal of roaring and screaming, and it takes 2 years to produce results.

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by: rduckham @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 12:17:05 PM UTC

Sessions misspoke about the AL-05 race

And named a Mississippi state senator as a likely opponent (and "young gun") against Parker Griffith.  In the process, he slighted two Republicans who have already announced for that race -- one of them is Les Phillip, the guy who lost almost $40K on a "fundraiser" with Mike Huckabee.

Progressive voices for Alabama at Left In Alabama

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by: mooncat @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 03:57:37 AM UTC

Would it be wrong of me to assume

The white guy wins a GOP primary in Alabama?

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 14:23:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My Guess on CA-47 and Sanchez, etc.

The Republicans are about to get their s*** rocked in redistricting if Democrats can save their unpopular governors.  Republican's last chance is to push in a lot of districts they really don't have a chance in, so the state legislatures choose to shore up incumbents rather than take ambitious map drawing to a new level for us.  Sanchez' district is one of the few held by a Democrat in California worth doing that to.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 04:32:11 AM UTC

It's possible

but I suspect a more plausible reason is that national Republicans have to show their Hawai'i and Orange Country donor base that they're actually trying to do something for them locally.

Taking their donors' money and spending it all on defense in Missouri or Kentucky, or on less than 50% chance campaigns in Colorado just doesn't satisfy the folks giving it.  So they have to put a few percent of the dough into a local grudge- and those old OC Republicans do hate Loretta with a passion.  Ol' B-1 Bob Dornan still haunts the OC GOP.

It's dumb.  But it's who they are.

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by: Baystater @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 17:33:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]