I will defer to the chairs

The obviously picked the right guy last time.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 20:15:27 PM UTC

Though I will say Sullivan could be interesting

Particularly with health care on the agenda.

"Mr. Sullivan is the assistant inspector general in the New York state Medicaid Office in Albany."

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 20:18:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just looking at the brief bios

I would say John Sullivan is the best bet: Small Town Mayor^tm (or small city, really) and experience as a prosecutor.  

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 21:24:49 PM UTC

Dog's breakfast

What does that mean, and is it good or bad?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 21:55:30 PM UTC

Think remnants of kibble...or wet food

Not good news!

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 23:46:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

hmmm

Regardless of who we pick, i'm most interested in who the Conservative Party nominates.  With the Independence Party endorsing the Republican, we need the conservative vote to be split in the election.

Well, worse case scenario we get a pro-gay, pro-union, pro-choice Republican.  That's better than some conservative Democrats.

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by: Bluedemocrat23 @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 22:23:22 PM UTC

that list

is impressively male - eleven out of eleven.  

You see that pretty often in special elections (although it's hard to say if it's really any more skewed than regular elections).  Maybe the category of "random people who apparently think they're qualified to throw their hat in the ring" is the kind of category that skews male.

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by: Joey @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 22:48:36 PM UTC

Winners are more female

From 2000 0n there have been 36 special elections to the House; 11 of the winners are women.  That is way more than the national average for the House.  Counting Stephanie Herseth, 10 of the last 24 elected have been women including Judy Chu,Marcia Fudge, Donna Edwards,Jackie Speier, Nikki Tsongas, Laura Richardson, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, Jean Schmidt, Doris Matsui and Herseth.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 02:59:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unfortunate sign of the district?

I suspect this means NY-23 is less progressive than we hoped. I think Scozzafava is more the exception w/r/t elected officials in this area.

Perhaps someone here can prove me wrong? I hope so.

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by: tietack @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 15:40:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Russell would have been the best choice

Obviously that isn't particularly feasible at this time.  Although it might have been feasible for her to run for the State Senate if Aubertine has run and won the Congressional seat.

Hopefully Addie Russell seriously considers running in 2010.

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by: JSmith @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 22:52:48 PM UTC

Assuming we lose, of course.

Which is reasonably possible since my read says that Dede Scozzafava is the five-hundred-pound gorilla in this race.  And even less dislikeable than Jim Tedisco.

Of course, you never know.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:12:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Aubertine or Russell was needed here

even with a Conservative candidate siphoning votes won't be enough for the Dem to win.

I'd bet on this one being something like R-48 D-38 C-14

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by: JSmith @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:45:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm loving the "some dude" entries.

Would be interesting if they picked the indie or the repub for this race, though.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:13:04 AM UTC

I thought

it was Republicans jobs to totally miss out on an oppertunity by not getting anyone of any notice in a race!

Im just kidding (kinda). Of course I still think the Dems have a good shot at this race, though I think with the way things have been turning out the seat has gone from being yet another Republican loss to a slight lean towards staying GOP.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:31:21 AM UTC

The GOP will hold it

Scozzafava is not a blowhard like Jim Tedisco.  

Unless Aubertine changes his mind (and he should, IMO, as Addie Russell would have a great chance of holding his seat), the GOP will hold this seat.  

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by: JSmith @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:47:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We can still hope that the NRCC blows it

If my recollection serves me, they came in with some really scurrilous ads against Murphy to the point that Tedisco denounced them and promised to show the "real Jim" or something like that.

If they come in hard and nasty it may rub off on Scozzafava and tarnish her Moderate image.  That plus the Conservative eating away at her right flank could be enough to push us over the top.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 17:55:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-23 Statistics

As I remember, swing state project has compiled the votes in the 2008 election for president and representative broken down by congressional district instead of by county.

Does anyone know where that could be found.   I'd be really curious to see how Obama did in this district.

Thanks!

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by: HylasBrook @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 23:43:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here is the link

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

NY   23   McHugh   (R)   52   47   47   51   47   49

NY-23 McHugh (R):
Obama 52 McCain 47
Kerry 47 Bush 51
Gore 47 Bush 49

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Aug 01, 2009 at 16:00:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY

Sullivan or Owens would be best, but I doubt we win this no matter who we pick.  Aubertine or French were likely our two best shots.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 14:28:02 PM UTC

Reading through the articles....Two interesting bits about McGrath

According to his resume, Mr. McGrath registered as a Republican at the age of 18 and then changed his party affiliation to Democrat in 2006. He is now a "strong financial supporter of Democratic candidates and progressive causes," it states.

That can't bode well, however, he apparently has one chairman's endorsement already --->

Not surprisingly, Mr. McGrath has the endorsement of Lewis County Democratic Chairman Edward M. Murphy.

I don't know where James got the 700K figure but the article says he has a plan to raise over 1,000K.  

Either way I suppose I'm leaning toward McG

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 17:53:56 PM UTC

From an article I linked above

McGrath is a 34 year-old New York City-based lawyer who grew up in Lowville. He's taken a leave His family owns McGrath Dairy and Surge, a local milking equipment dealership, and McGrath Electric. He has put $200,000 of his own money into the race and estimates that he can raise around $700,000 more, according to planning documents.

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by: James L. @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 18:36:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well then the two articles are slightly contradicting.

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 06:20:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]