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SSP Daily Digest: 7/29

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 3:26 PM EDT


• OH-Sen: Auto dealer Tom Ganley hasn't really attracted anyone's attention yet in the GOP primary, as ex-Rep. Rob Portman has the whole 'inevitability' thing going for him. This ought to get some attention, though: Ganley says he's ready to spend more than $5 million, mostly his own money, to get noticed. Ganley has been sharpening his attacks on Portman as "career politician," not a label you really want to get saddled with these days.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): The polls keep looking worse for Jon Corzine; this time it's PPP's turn. Chris Christie leads 50-36, with Corzine getting the votes of only 64% of Democrats and 26% of Independents. The 14-lead for Christie is up from 10, in PPP's last outing in late June.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac finds that Democratic NYC Comptroller William Thompson pulls within 10 points of incumbent Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 47-37, but they note that this may have to do with a small tweak in method than any larger trend. In this poll, they identified Bloomberg as "Independent and Republican" instead of just "Independent" as they did last time, when he did much better at 54-32. Thompson has been going on the offensive, though, so his name rec is probably much improved, too. Thompson beats Queens city council member Tony Avella in the primary, 44-11. Both Bloomberg and Thompson has positive job approval rates: 63/29 and 53/10, respectively.

• CA-10: The fields are set for the Sep. 1 special primary election, and now state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier is the first to hit the TV airwaves, running an ad focusing on health care reform.

• RNC: Also on the health care front, the RNC (not the NRCC, interestingly) is running radio spots against 60 different House Democrats, mostly in conservative-leaning districts, accusing them of a "dangerous experiment." There are also TV ads in the cheapo markets of Nevada, North Dakota, and Arkansas. That sounds like a huge package, but the whole thing is only costing them $1 million.

• TN-St. Sen.: Get ready for a special election in the Tennessee Senate in SD 31 in the Memphis suburbs; GOP Sen. Paul Stanley resigned yesterday (leaving the GOP with an 18-14 edge, with 1 vacancy) after he was Unmasked having an affair with his 22-year-old female intern, after the intern's boyfriend tried extorting him over naughty pictures. Naked pictures of state senate groupies? Hmmm... that sounds more like Gene Simmons to me than Paul Stanley. (In case you're wondering, her name is not "Beth," although based on her previous track record, she does certainly seem to like to rock and roll all night and party ev-er-y day) (Actually, I'm wondering if any one of these KISS references is going to have any resonance among SSP's key readership demographics.)

• Initiatives: Michigan Democrats are interested in using the ballot initiative process in 2010 to short-circuit the whole legislative song-and-dance on some key issues that have some populist resonance with the voters. These might include a hike in the minimum wage to $10, temporary moratoria on home foreclosures, and requiring all employers to provide health insurance.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/29
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SSP Daily Digest: 7/29 | 23 comments
Re CA-10
Going in, I thought this would be Garamendi's race to lose, but some of the other Dems are keeping a decent fundraising pace. Is my original thought still operative or is this a more open contest?
I still think Garamendi should run in CA-03
Since he, you know, actually lives there.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Doesnt he live in Walnut Grove?
I know that little town is split between two districts, the one hes running in and the one youre referring to (Lundgren's).
[ Parent ]
That's correct
His house is in the CA-03 part though.  It's also that he has deep roots in that area, since he represented a good portion of CA-03 in the Assembly and has a ranch in Amador County.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Ranch is in Calaveras County
The Garamendi ranch is in Calaveras County, and he does have roots in both counties.

Yes, he did represent the area in the Assembly and Senate, but that's in the past and he has more recently represented the entire state as Insurance Commissioner and Lt. Governor as well as serving in the Clinton administration.  

[ Parent ]
Christie's 14-point lead
How much of that is the anyone-but-Corzine vote? And how much of the anti-Corzine vote will shift to the moderate independent Chris Daggett once he starts advertising and eventually participates in the debates?
That's a good point
PPP didn't include Daggett. Most northeast-based pollsters are accounting for him now, though. Of course, they're still also finding a 12- to 15-point spread, too, so maybe Daggett's not making a big difference one way or the other.
[ Parent ]
It's early yet
We'll see what happens when we get closer to the election, Daggett has done some advertising, and this corruption scandal has shaken out. I'd be willing to bet that Daggett's name recognition right now is very low. But the corruption scandal doesn't just hurt Corzine and benefit Christie -- it also helps Daggett because it makes the party machines look bad. That's why Corzine picked Weinberg, an anti-machine Democrat, as his running mate.  
[ Parent ]
TN-SD31: What sort of area is this?
Suburbs of a major city in the South doesn't sound particularly good for us, but I don't know how progressive or conservative the Memphis suburbs are.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
No, doesn't look good
It's Germantown, which is the wealthy McMansion area for Memphis. That area is gerrymandered into TN-07, so it's gotta be one of the conservative parts of Shelby County. (The legislature has maps here.)

Incidentally, Germantown is where my great-great-great-great-great-grandfather died during the Civil War. Johnny Reb couldn't get him, but malaria did.

[ Parent ]
From Wikipedia...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...

The district's politics are dominated by the wealthy suburbs of Memphis (e.g., Germantown, Collierville, Cordova) and Nashville (e.g., Brentwood, Franklin). These areas boast some of the highest median incomes in the nation, and have swelled with former Nashville and Memphis residents since the late 1960s. At first, this was due to anger over court-ordered desegregation. Since the late 1970s, the motivation has been a desire to seek more "family-friendly," religious environments (as opposed to the urbane liberal orientations of Nashville and Memphis). They give the 7th a character similar to other highly affluent suburban districts in the South (e.g., those around Birmingham, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Houston and Atlanta). Many of the state's most politically active churches are located in the suburban areas of the district, giving the 7th a strong social conservative tint typical of most affluent Southern suburban districts. Republicans dominate every level of government in the suburban areas, which tend to elect some of Tennessee's most conservative state legislators.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Sounds like we're fucked.
Then again, as long as Cao is in office, I am not discounting pigs flying.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Doesn't look like a good pickup shot, BUT the scandal is still fun
We really do have enough enough material now for a couple of episodes of "Wingers Gone Wild"!!!!
[ Parent ]
Wow, $10 min wage?
What a way to hurt your state's economy even more with a massive jump like that. The MI min wage now is only $7.40.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
Don't Worry
I understood your KISS reference.
She sounds like a Hard Luck Woman
... or a nutjob.

Republicans have weirder affairs than Democrats.

[ Parent ]
Blanco considering 2011 run for LA Gov
Thank god I wasnt drinking something
I would have spit it all over the place! She has got to be kidding me. She has no future in statewide LA politics anymore. Move along Blanco...you had your time and along with George W. Bush, Ray Nagin, the former FEMA Head and others...you blew it. There are other qualified Dems who could run against Jindal. Unless he becomes unpopular they will probably lose. But they do nevertheless have a bench. Although not so much at the U.S. House level anymore.  
[ Parent ]
It is possible OTOH
that Jindal will not run for reelection and run for Prez instead.  That may be what Blanco and other Dems have in mind.
[ Parent ]
They do have a pretty good bench
But, do any of them want to run? Charlie MElancon might be a senator by then, and declined to run in 2007, but if he loses, I wouldnt be surprised if he ran. He would be well known by then. Mitch Landrieu might just wait and run for re-election, hoping Jindal runs for Preisdent in 2012 and wins, is elected VP in 2012, or is given a cabinent post in a Republican administration. He might be waiting to see if his sister Mary runs for re-election, and run for her seat, or become Governor if Jindal runs and wins. AG Foti is another potential candidate. The only others I can think of are Cao's successor ( I doubt it, only in office a few months, then run for Gov? ) or State Rep. (and Speaker Pro Tem) Karen Carter Peterson who has fought with Jindal over and over again and has pretty good name ID.
[ Parent ]
Also cant rule out
Those in the state legislature as well as various mayors. Afterall Hagan and Merkley were both elected even though they were just in the state legislature. And Martin gave Chambliss a race in the Nov. election at least. The only problems theyll really have is getting the fundraising and institutional support. As the establishment is dismissive of 'small time players' and likes to bank on 'high profile names'. But most voters dont sit at home and think, 'a U.S. Rep. ive never heard of is just so much worthy than a state senator Ive never heard of'. Whether in a primary or general. IMO, anyway.
[ Parent ]
Oh, I know
I was just using the names off the top of my head, and those that many Louisianians would know. They will know Melancon from his Senate run, unless he wins, then he is out of to Gov election I presume. KCP ran a good campaign for Congress and got lots of attention for it. She is also the Speaker Pro Tem, so she is in the news alot. Landrieu might have better name recognition than Jindal almost! Foti, well, he's elected statewide. Not sure how many voters know him though.  
[ Parent ]
The Michigan Democrats are smart
these initiatives will help us politically by getting out our voters.  It will probably help take over the state Senate as well.
SSP Daily Digest: 7/29 | 23 comments

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