Pennsylvania has been a swing state for some time now so what happens here is VERY IMPORTANT nationwide. U.S. Senate Democrats have both Senate seats for the first time since 1968 (okay, January 1969) thanks to the Specter Switcheroo. Pat Toomey is Rick Santorum 2.0, and he MUST NOT become our new Senator. Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak MUST win. Our Senate race is very important and has NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS, especially since Arlen Specter is known throughout the country for his switch to the Democratic Party. If Senator Specter wins his primary, we must vigorously support his re-election, no matter what. So that means no more of the Snarlin' Arlen comments! The U.S. House The House delegation has gone from 12-7 Republican to 11-8, with four Democratic pickups (The biggest Democratic sweep in ANY state in 2006- no other state had more than 3 pickups). In 2008, Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper won in PA-3 (the Erie district) and now we are at 12-7, a complete reversal of pre-2006. We want to make sure Democrats continue to stay on a roll. PA-15 My Congressional district of PA-15 is going to be one of the most important races in the country (to me, THE most important House race and a bellwether for the entire nation). Charlie Dent, Republican, has had a VERY easy time winning here despite a prO-bama majority. Mayor John Callahan of Bethlehem is running for the Democratic nomination. We must make him Congressman. Plus, if you ask me, he's kinda cute (-: Mayor Callahan's Campaign Site (Very new) PA-8 Jim Gerlach is running in the Republican primary for Governor and we have (so far) Doug Pike, who I don't know much about but will support if he is the Democrat. I think this is VERY winnable. If Gerlach loses, I'm not so sure he can get back into the race. Curt Schroder is already running. A Pike victory will mean A LOT on Election Day since it is expected the Republicans will narrowly hold onto this seat in the Philly suburbs. It's an Obama district though. Governor's Race We also have to watch the Governor's race- most likely it will be between Jack Wagner and Tom Corbett. Ed Rendell will not have very good approval ratings which will bode poorly for the Democrat but hopefully Jack Wagner (or Dan Onorato from Pittsburgh) will run a top-notch campaign and really narrow that gap in the last few weeks. My mind says Corbett though. Please let me wrong. State Senate We have a ridiculous 30-20 Republican majority in the State Senate and it keeps getting bigger by the day, so to turn it blue we'll need SIX MAGIC SEATS to take it back (I'm assuming Democrats had control of it at one point). We will have 25 chances to win the Senate (half of it is up for election in 2010) and most of these will remain the same, however...judging from previous election results, I see these six Republican seats as the most vulnerable (Keeping in mind that they were all last up in 2006, a Democratic year): SD 6 - held by Robert Tomlinson (R), last won by 53.4% SD 10 - held by Chuck McIlhinney (R), won by a measly 51.5% against Democrat Chris Serpico SD 12 - held by Stewart J. Greenleaf (R), won by 57.4% SD 16 - held by Pat Browne (R), won by 54.2% SD 24 - Bob Wonderling (R), won by 56.5% SD 26 - Edwin Erickson (R), won by 52.2% (his challenger in '06 was Mike Farrell) SD 34 - Jacob Corman (R), won by 56.0% (but Democrat Jon Eich only got 39.1%) SD 44 - John Rafferty (R), won by 56.2% SD 50 - Bob Robbins (R), won by 53.5% (challenger was Art Allen) The good news is that all of the Democratic seats will likely, barring any unusual events, be safe so we can focus on these nine seats, which are ripe for a takeover. State House Democrats hold onto a 104-99 majority. It's clearly not a safe majority. All of the 201-or-some House seats are up and there are a lot of opportunities to pick off some of these Republicans, so let's go through the seats where the Republican won by less than 60%: HD 15 - Jim Christiana, 51.5% HD 26 - Tim Hennessy, 52.1% HD 57 - Tim Krieger, 51.7% HD 75 - Matt Gabler, 52.8% HD 128 - Sam Rohrer, 52.2% HD 142 - Frank Farry, 51.7% HD 146 - Thomas Quigley, 53.4% HD 187 - Gary Day, 52.3% If we win all of these eight seats (a nice goal), and keep onto our close seats, we will have a 112-91, which will be a significant improvement. Worst Case Scenario If the Republicans win PA big, we will have: U.S. Senator Pat Toomey (formerly the president of right-wing Club for Growth and you can just imagine those tax breaks for the rich) Governor Tom Corbett replacing the fairly progressive Ed A 30-20 Republican Senate (I sincerely doubt they'll win any Democratic seats) A Republican State House (which will pass an anti-gay marriage amendment to the Constitution, at top of their to-do list when they retake the House) The loss of Democrats Paul Kanjorski (he barely won last time around), Jason Altmire (represents a very conservative district), Chris Carney (representing an even more conservative district), freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Republican victories in the 6th and 15th, which will give the Republicans a pickup of FOUR seats...which would undo the results of 2006, and perhaps if Joe Sestak runs for the Senate and abandons his House seat they will have FIVE seat pickups. So as you can see the stakes cannot be higher here in the Keystone State. |
