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NY-23: Aubertine Won't Run For Congress

by: James L.

Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 6:43 PM EDT


Here's the full statement, which includes some nice barbs at the GOP:

"There has been a lot of speculation as to whether I would run in a special election for the 23rd Congressional District.

"My priority must continue to be the work I have started in the state Senate, representing Oswego, Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties. My commitment is to the people of the 48th Senate District and has been all along. Before I could even consider the possibility of serving another eight counties, I had a duty to finish out this year's session.

"This seat in Congress belongs to the people who live in these 11 counties, not any elected official or political party.

"Unfortunately, the National Republican Party has viewed the seat differently. National Republicans have demonstrated their belief that party registration matters more than the issues by spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to attack and vilify me.  They never mentioned the important issues we care about here in the 23rd, whether it's our military and Fort Drum, border security and international trade, agriculture, energy and the economy of the future, or rural healthcare.

"It's no small wonder why the Washington Republicans are going extinct, and contributors should question why the money they've given was squandered here for no good reason at all.

"I support the process that the Democratic Party has put in place to come up with a candidate to run for the expected vacancy in the 23rd Congressional District. I'm certain the 11 county chairs involved in the process will continue to move toward finding a qualified candidate who understands the issues here and will embark on an honest campaign that puts people before politics."

Count me as relieved. Control of the state Senate going into the next round of redistricting (both congressional and legislative) is too precious a commodity right now. We need every seat we can get in the state Senate.

While Aubertine would have been a very strong candidate for this seat, hopefully the local Democratic chairs can pick a strong, qualified nominee to give us a fighting chance against Scozzafava. More updates as we get 'em.

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James L. :: NY-23: Aubertine Won't Run For Congress
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NY-23: Aubertine Won't Run For Congress | 91 comments
Given the love affair around here with Scozzafava
why don't the Democrats just endorse her and skip the election entirely?
Love affair?
C'mon... it's not like she's some kind of progressive champion just because she favors gay marriage. After all, she doesn't support cap and trade, which McHugh actually voted for.
[ Parent ]
For curiousity's sake
When was the last time that happened in a US House Race, i.e., both endorsements to the same individual.  It happened in the California gubernatorial race with Earl Warren, actually a registered but very liberal Republican.  But, what about Federal office?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Peter Welch
won the Republican primary in 2008 as a write-in candidate. He was listed on the ballot as Democratic/Republican.
[ Parent ]
Sad state of affairs for the Vermont GOP
Outside of the impotent Governor Douglas.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Didn't Peter Welch get both nominations last year?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yes n/t


50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
Correct me if I'm wrong
But didn't Peter Welch(D-vermont) get the endorsement of both parties?

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
[ Parent ]
Slightly incorrect
He was not endorsed by the Republican party, but since they fielded no candidate, not even a write-in, Welch got enough write-in votes on the Republican side to take their ballot line.
[ Parent ]
Oh please
love affair is such an exaggerated way to put it that it isnt even accurate.
[ Parent ]
Good

NY
Color me worried about getting this seat.  Does not look good.

29/D/Male/NY-01
So? It would be nice, but it's
not like we're playing defense here.
[ Parent ]
So it means a seat we had a shot for we are unlikely to get
This is not good news.  She's going to be in there forever, which means all this twaddle about losing his Senate seat needs to be followed up with an effort to cram as many Republicans as possible into her district... which would be the one way to make this a victory.  One of maybe two R seats in the state and it is represented by one of the two or three most liberal Republicans in the House.
[ Parent ]
Twaddle about losing his Senate seat?
Look, there are priorities and an entire chamber takes precedence over one House seat.

You say she'll be there forever.  Yet 1) we don't even know who her opponent will be, and 2) you have no idea if she'll even survive a primary.

[ Parent ]
Not true, nor is that the point
The NY senate is as important as an outhouse right now.
[ Parent ]
Others have tried
...to explain the importance of winning/maintaining control of the NY Senate to you in the past, and if you haven't grasped the reason why by now, I'm not sure you ever will.
[ Parent ]
You're right.
There's no point in responding to him, as he's never going to see it.
[ Parent ]
Yet again you post these nonsense statements
They don't make any sense at all.  Please state how the current gerrymander will continue to exist if Cuomo is Gov, the Assembly is D, and the Senate is R.

No fussing and fumbling about.

silence

No one makes the case because it doesn't exist, so let's stop pretending.

There are exactly two possibilites going forward from 2010... a non-partisan plan, or a Democratic gerrymander.  The difference between the two should be extremely small, and sacrificing a House seat for the difference makes no sense at all, since the sum effect of a harsh Democratic gerrymander would be to pick up one seat!

The more important point that will get lost here is New York State pols are similar to California ones.  They care about their own asses more than anything else.  A Democratic gerrymander will likely have incumbent protection as its priorities, which means we are more likely to pick up one or two seats with a non-partisan plan than with a Democratic gerrymander.

[ Parent ]
I'll take a crack at him.
First, let's distinguish between the redistricting of the US House seats, and the redistricting of the NY State Senate seats.

Without a serious remapping of the NY State Senate districts, Democratic control of that chamber will remain precarious, and in the hands of moral monsters like Espada and Monserrate.  As long as that is the case no good or significant laws can be passed: not just marriage equality, or rent control measures, or education measures, but really a thirty year backlog of progressive legislation that has been bottled up by the eternal GOP control of the NY state senate.  LOTS of important legislation needs to be passed in NY, and it is all in jeopardy until a real and secure Democratic majority in that chamber is established.  And that requires a complete remap of the state senate districts.

Now, if the GOP controls the state senate going into redistricting, you can fucking bet your balls that a serious remap of that chamber to the advantage of Democrats will not take place.  Sure, we might get a decent US House map; the state senate GOP might even throw away a House GOPer (Scozzafava, probably) if they had to.  But they damn well will not consent to a remap of their own chamber and their own source of power, and without that, we get nothing of importance in New York governance.  Nothing.

That is why people think that Aubertine is more important in the Senate.  A House seat that is going to be redrawn, and a GOP incumbent who is going to be primaried, is just not anywhere near as important as regaining complete control of New York state government.  Because there are actual laws affecting actual New Yorkers that need to be passed.  Including laws about gay marriage and health care that would affect the rest of the country too.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
I absolutely agree
And I just hope everyone else who feels that way also thinks that way about small states and red states. Not just a big and blue and progressive state like NY. It is easy to want great change for likeminded progressives...but what about for people in the 'backwoods' in places like Arkansas and Oklahoma, etc? All too often I see people say 'who cares about them?'. Even looking past the adults...theres the children to be concerned about. People who cant help if their parents have certain political/personal views.

But as said before...there are many who literally do care more about 1 House seat than what happens in NY state. Its the whole 'I dont live there so who cares?' mentality. I love Texas and am a proud Texan but Im an American first. So I want whats best for all Americans. But I do think most folks look at it that way, too.

[ Parent ]
And even in conservative states
There are adults themselves who want moderate or progressive change. Change that is better than the status quo.
[ Parent ]
The NY Senate does more
than draw a map for its seats.  There's also a little job they do: running the state.  There's no reason to continue the ridiculousness that would occur if the Senate becomes tied again.
[ Parent ]
Plus, this is a ripe seat to be removed..
after 2010. If we control the state senate, this district doesn't even have to exist after 2010!

Scott Murphy's district can move further upstate, shedding some of that nastiness in the Capital District, and the other half can go to Arcuri or something.

[ Parent ]
The sky is falling?
You say she'll be there forever, when you don't even know if she'll win the special election. How silly!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
You really are Upstate Dem and/or BillNolan aren't you!

[ Parent ]
He might be
While I know BillNolan was banned from the site, I don't know if that just means his account under that name is locked or if his ISP was blocked altogether (in other words, a permanent ban).

There is something fishy, though, as Tek emerged not long after BillNolan was banned. Then again, he could easily be one of our other former trolls.

[ Parent ]
Such a shame antoni was banned
It would have been way cool to rub Rep. Himes in his face.
[ Parent ]
Murphy
Maybe Scott Murphy has a rich cousin living in NY 23.
Mike Oot seems like a good candidate
Mike Oot is a lawyer who never ran for office before. He seems solidly liberal, and convincing. And more hard-hitting than Scott Murphy. If Scott Murphy could win against Jim Tedisco then Mike Oot should have a good chance too. He's from Madison County, one of the more Republican parts of the district, which should give him an advantage, like it gave Scott Murphy in his part of his district.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
never?
I take it then that this is not the same Mike oot who got absolutely destroyed by McHugh in 2008??  

Mike P. Oot lost 65-35 after raising barely  107,809 dollars.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
but now it's an open seat
I'm sure if Scott Murphy ran against McHugh in 2008 then he would have lost 65-35 too.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
always possible
my comment was more of an attempt to point out that you may have a slight bit of misinformation in your first post about Oot.  You stated he had never run for political office before.  

My post was more in effort to point out that he had run in 2008 and had done poor enough that his campaign didn't even catch with anyone so that its entriely possible that no one even knows he ran even though he did.  


Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
i see
I should have said he never held office before.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Control of the state senate
Is more important in my opinion right now than winning another House seat. Sure it's always nice to have another house seat, but with control of the state senate, we can eventually draw it so one day New York may have a completely congressional delegation that's Democratic. Now Paterson please go into retirement and let Cuomo run for governor please.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
How about if we care about good government instead
Dreams of grotesque gerrymandering should be 100 times less important than representation of the people of this district.
[ Parent ]
"Dreams of grotesque gerrymanderring"?
I'm not sure what dreams you're talking about, because we're already living in a nightmare.
[ Parent ]
And your point is?
Replacing a gross R map with a gross D map is not a priority.

The existing map will be history, regardless of the NY Senate, so why would it even come into discussion here?

[ Parent ]
Good government involves keeping conservatives OUT of government


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Indeed. eom


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
And I mean conservatives of BOTH parties


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Government is for all of the people
even conservatives.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
And they're perfectly free to try to win the election
As will I, and if that involves legal means of stacking the deck, through redistricting, through fundraising, etc, then so be it, because they've shown a propensity for using ILLEGAL means as well.  I for one don't feel like unilaterally disarming just because someone is squeamish about splitting a county.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
That's not what I meant
I meant that one party rule is not good government, even if it's Democrats who are ruling.  I'm all for aggressive gerrymandering.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
If any party can have one-party control and still be fractured...
...it's ours!

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Oh c'mon
Good government comes from an appropriate reprensentation of people's views.  Conservatives should be in government to the degree that they represent the will of the people of the jurisdiction they represent.

And social change comes from changes the hearts and minds of people, not locking them out of the room.

[ Parent ]
So
Are you saying we should redistrict Massachusetts, New Mexico, Hawaii, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, etc. to make red seats out of those all-blue states?  Or Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, etc. to make those majority blue delegations majority red to match the voting patterns of those states?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I can guarantee
that the Republicans have their eyes on the TN map.  
[ Parent ]
Um, no, how does that follow?
Walt Minnick, Gene Taylor, Bobby Bright and many others are conservatives representing their districts.  

Saying people like these should be kept out of government is not a very sensible idea.

We should seek to run moderately conservative folks in conservative districts, not saying screw off to people whose views are currently conservative.

[ Parent ]
So you aren't big on strategy?

[ Parent ]
Holy shit
the NRCC had already started airing attack ads against him.  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA!!!  What a waste of money!

Bunch of freaking idiots.  I hope this becomes a bit of a stain on his ability to fundraise, whose going to donate to an organization who just wasted however many thousands on someone not even running!

Well, they'll claim they scared him out of the race.
I don't know if anyone will believe them, but they'll sure as hell say it anyway.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
Possible alternative
I checked Hotline's webpage, and they say that one of the people who submitted his resume to the county chairs is former US att'y and Moynihan aide Daniel French. Anyone think he'd be a good alternative?
Would he be a Blue Dog?
If so, then no.  Considering the shenanigans the Blue Dogs have done with healthcare (after taking a shit load of healthcare money!), I am in no mood to give them a new member.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Not all Blue Dogs are created equal. (eom)

[ Parent ]
All members are targets in my book
It's the same with the Republicans, the saner/less corrupt ones are drowned out the by crazies and crooks.  The fact that those saner ones would continue to fraternize with the worse makes them liable, in my opinion.  So, yes, I'm holding Patrick Murphy accountable for Mike Ross, just as I hold Olympia Snowe accountable for Mitch McConnell.

The bullshit has gone on too long.  If this healthcare reform fails to pass, it'll damage Obama greatly, which in turn will damage the Democratic Party.  If it passes in a good form, it'll show that government will work which in turn helps us rhetorically, give Obama a major victory, and help us down the road.  Instead, the Blue Dogs, funded in large part by corporate interest (healthcare, energy, etc.) are dicking around.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
All 7 on the House Energy and Commerce Committee
are against the bill in its current form and could easily kill it in committee.  Ugh, those Blue Dogs have given me such a false sense of hope and a head ache.
[ Parent ]
wait, I should my negativity about them
They have yet to kill anything so I spose I'll wait til they really screw us over to complain.
[ Parent ]
There are only 8ish Blue Dogs in the EC committee
And the Democrats have a majority of 13 members on the committee - so in theory, the Democrats can afford to lose all the blue dogs in the committee, although their votes would be very important on the floor.
[ Parent ]
It looks like there are 8 Dogs on the committee
(Barrow, Gordon, Harman, Hill, Matheson, Melancon, Ross, Space).  All except Harman have signed a letter opposing the health care bill.

Democrats have a 36-23 edge, so if the remaining 7 Blue Dogs (who are "joined at the hip" according to Ross) vote against their party, Republicans win 30-29.  

[ Parent ]
Exactly.
   They are only against us on "social issues."  Hahaha!

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Except
For military issues, foreign policy, healthcare, environmental issues...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Don't think so
I couldn't find a lot of info on him, but his profile on lawyers.com says he wrote a book about taking a public health approach to gun violence. Doesn't sound like something a Blue Dog would write.

However, on HuffingtonPost's political contribution site, it appears that he donated $3,200 to John McHugh in 2008 and $2500 to Jim Walsh before he announced his retirement.

By the same token, he donated $1K to Gillibrand and $4.6K to Hillary and $2k to Clyburn.

Does any of this make the picture clearer?

[ Parent ]
If it weren't for Blue Dogs
Republicans would control the house and nothing would get passed.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Spare me
19 Blue Dogs represent blue districts.  Another seven or so represent only marginally Republican districts.  We can afford to primary Blue Dogs and still be sitting pretty in the House.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm sure that's what the Club for Growth
thought with Schwarz and Gilchrest.
[ Parent ]
Not that there aren't
some Dems who are more conservative then their districts might warrant.
[ Parent ]
Most of the Blue Dogs in Dem districts
are hardly Blue Dogs at all.  Loretta Sanchez, Mike Thompson, Joe Baca, Dennis Cardoza, Gabrielle Giffords, Jane Harman, Mike Michaud, David Scott, Sanford Bishop, Jim Costa.  I don't see the need to primary any of those, except Harman (for different reasons) The rest, save for a few, represent Republican or conservative leaning districts

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Then they should disassociate themselves
Otherwise, they're enabling a group of conservatives to hold us hostage.  

And not all blue district Blue Dogs are that way.  John Barrow comes to mind immediately.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
They're not holding you hostage.
They're having their voices be heard. That's how legislation is made.  A plan is proposed, people voice objections if they have them, and it's debated.  People make compromises, and it moves forward.  You can't expect everyone to agree about everything all the time.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
They're hold healthcare hostage
Along with vague threats like "you can't pass anything without us."

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
That isn't a threat
They can't pass anything with at least some of them.
[ Parent ]
There are 71 Democrats who represent Republican-leaning districts
And a lot of them aren't members of the Blue Dogs but are moderate to conservative. Ike Skelton and John Murtha, for example.If things go bad for the Democrats in 2010, they could lose an awful a lot of them. Divisive primaries would only make it worse.
[ Parent ]
Nitpicking Correction
There are 71 Democrats who represent districts which are more Repulican than the county as a whole. That doesn't mean they are Republican leaning. Just look at the resullts of the last presidential elections.
[ Parent ]
Draft Aubertine
I had the impression Aubertine was a borderline Democrat before he released that fighting statement saying he won't run for McHugh's seat. Now I see another side of him that looks very appealing. I think he should reconsider and run for CD 23. He sounds like he would be a real addition in DC and why shouldn't we top off the ticket in that district in the strongest possible way with the strongest possible candidate.

He wouldn't be going after one of our own, but going for a higher office held by the enemy. The best defence is always a good offense. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Whoever the party in his district would have run for Congress in his place can run for his Senate seat when that special election comes up. An Aubertine victory in the CD will do nothing but further lay the groundwork for the State Senate candidate. I wouldn't worry too much about holding the State Senate. I don't care how they gerrymandered it, there are only so many Republican votes left in NY and I do not for a minute think that they can hold onto the Stata Senate no matter how we play it.

Don't play scared, draft Aubertine!

They held the Senate
For decades. Moreover, are you happy about the idea of gridlock or suck-ass legislation until 2010?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
yes, but New York
has shifted much further left in the past few decades, and now they hang onto what power they have eft mainly through about a half dozen dinosaurs in Democratic leaning districts.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
They're doing that in California too, with their veto power on taxes and budgets.


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
You don't get it
New York is in very bad shape. The suckier the State Legislature is, the worse it is for New Yorkers at this really lousy, perilous time. We need help NOW, not in 2011, after the elections.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
P.S. No offense
Maybe you get it, but I don't sense the urgency we New Yorkers feel because we are suffering here.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
on what exactly?
You don't seem to be toughin it any worse than the rest of us are.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Unemployment
is higher in New York City than in the country as an average. And there are lots of other things. Don't forget where Wall St. is.

Besides, the state would be in even much worse shape if those two renegade Democratic senators hadn't gone back to the Democratic side. I shudder to think what might happen next year if the economy is even worse and there is gridlock in the state government.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
there will probably still be gridlock
And internal disagreements. Things wo't be much better. Dems can't expand their power until they clean out their own closets, so to speak, get rid of corrupt people.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Totally agreed
on cleaning out corruption, and I'm not that hopeful, because the heavily Democratic Assembly isn't very good either. But if I have to choose between corrupt Democrats and corrupt Republicans, I'll choose corrupt Democrats.

For the record, my district is run by a reformist Democrat who I supported in a primary - Daniel Squadron, who defeated Martin Connor. Connor was considered ineffective.

Primaries against corrupt state legislators of both parties in New York are extremely important.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Her party may be the enemy
But I doubt if she wins she will be viewed by most as a true enemy. Shes pretty liberal for a Republican by all accounts. As shes not only socially liberal (probably besides guns) but also has gotten the endorsement of the Working Family Party. I would imagine that she will be pretty respected by most Democrats, even many partisan ones. Doesnt mean the loyal partisan Dems will vote for her but they will respect her and maybe even like her (ala Chafee, Leach, Gilchrest, Boehlert, etc).  
[ Parent ]
Well, got that Work., Families endorsement
In legislature elections, anyway.
[ Parent ]
I still think its ridiculous
to think Democrats won't be picking up any additional seats this cycle. Regardless the next redistricting would be a compromise, andthen Democrats would retake the State Senate with a fair ridistricting map.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
Yes...but so would the congressional map.
That's 10 years of less-than-optimal representation in both the State Senate and in Congress...we're talking through 2022.  I'm willing to not pick up a seat in the US House for four years for better representation in the long run.

While you're probably right Dems will probably hold/retake the State Senate, every vote counts. Let's not forget about how divided the Senate Dems are, and the fact that we have clowns like Espada and Monserrate...

Every Democratic senator counts, especially every one we can squeeze out of the city/Westchester. While control probably won't hinge on redistricting, tangible issues (of which gay marriage is only one) that affect millions of New Yorkers will.

[ Parent ]
I agree,
very well said.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I agree with you about the State Senate having less than optimal representation
But its hard to argue that their Congressional delegation isnt. The Republicans only have 3 seats there. And possibly 2 by the end of the year. And maybe even 0 before a new map even takes effect. As King could very well run for Senate next year and the Dems would have a good shot at his seat. And Lee is only a freshman and could lose re-election next year to a solid Dem challennger. Itd be an uphill battle probably but its doable. NY is solid Dem territory, no doubt...but they just absolutely kill the GOP in Congressional numbers. So they have a pretty satisfactory delegation. Now the map itself...that can be argued differently. And the GOP only has themselves to thank for being in such deep crap there despite their map.  
[ Parent ]
Sweet
Now I probably wont be rooting for Scozzafava.  I wont know the new guys position on gay marriage most likely so I can just be a wishful thinker.  :)
NY-23: Aubertine Won't Run For Congress | 91 comments

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