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GA-Gov, NJ-Gov: Big Leads for Barnes, Oxendine, Christie

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 4:24 PM EDT


Strategic Vision (R) (7/17-19, likely voters, 6-12/14 in parentheses):

Roy Barnes (D): 46 (49)
Thurbert Baker (D): 31 (30)
David Poythress (D): 4 (5)
Dubose Porter (D): 3 (2)
Undecided: 16 (14)

John Oxendine (R): 38 (35)
Nathan Deal (R): 16 (12)
Karen Handel (R): 9 (13)
Eric Johnson (R): 5 (4)
Ray McBerry (R): 3 (2)
Austin Scott (R): 2 (2)
Undecided: 27 (32)
(MoE: ±3%)

Republican pollster Strategic Vision takes another look at both the primary fields in the Georgia governor's race (sorry, no general election matchups). As their previous polls have shown, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine has a head start on the GOP field, while former Gov. Roy Barnes leads the Dems. Strategic Vision has repeatedly shown AG Thurbert Baker polling much stronger than Rasmussen.

Strategic Vision (R) (7/17-19, likely voters, 6-19/21 in parentheses):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (39)
Chris Christie (R): 53 (51)
Christopher Daggett (I): 5 (N/A)
Undecided: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±3%)

Strategic Vision also takes a look at the New Jersey's governor's race. This is very consistent with the most recent Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls. Suffice it to say that if Jon Corzine is going to start making a move, now would be the time to do it.

Crisitunity :: GA-Gov, NJ-Gov: Big Leads for Barnes, Oxendine, Christie
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Is Corzine even trying?
I haven't heard about him doing a thing besides that event with Obama.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


Georgia
It would be wonderful to avoid a runoff while the Republicans have to deal with an expensive primary that may or may not involve lawsuits.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

I think
right now Corzine's best move could be changing his name.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

And to add to his woes
a memeber of Corzine's cabient just stepped down in connection to the massive courrption sting that just happened in NJ today, playing into Cristie's anti-corruption message.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.


[ Parent ]
Just Heard About It Too
And I'm shocked. We're talking about not just some rabbis, but mayors and legislators from across the state. If New Jersey's image as a corrupt state was any evident before, this just goes to help solidify that viewpoint.

While Corzine may have nothing to do with the scandals at all, it seems he's going to be tarred with it by his opponents because, after all, he IS the Governor.


[ Parent ]
Debates
When are the debates going to be between Christie, Daggett, and Corzine. I think those might help Corzine out.

Corzine
Must be a total screwup to be losing this badly in NJ of all places.  

I have a bad feeling Blue America is about to fracture, at least at the gubernatorial level.  New Jersey looks lost, Pennsylvania might be tough, Rhode Island might not be the easy pickup we all thought, Michigan might be tough to hold, maybe even Ohio too (with an incumbent even though OH is definitely Purple)

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


Not a sign of Blue America fracturing
We just have the edge in Governorships and everyone is in a throw-em-out now sort of mood, so, of course, we're feeling it more...we have more to lose.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Corzine is done IMO
Unless something really damaging comes out about Christie.  

[ Parent ]
Strike NJ from the list
Now the fall could change it, just look at Kay Hagan last year but, Corzine is the incumbent, not the challenger. For him to be below 50% in almost every poll is saddening. I understand Codey was well loved when he stepped in after the McGreevey fiasco, why didn't they run him instead of Corzine.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Money
Corzine has spent $103 million of his own money to run for US Senator and Governor.  Unfortunately, he's starting to run out of money after a divorce and the stock market and real estate plunge.

As for the continuing Republican witch hunt, wish they had spent the same resources going after the stock market manipulators that Republicans invested going after Democrats.  It would have done a lot more good.

The only change in this (a two year investigation) is that a token Republican was also arrested and this time they nabbed white Democrats and not just minorities.  When you consider that Holder let the Alaska Republicans go free (and they were all convicted) foir lack of money, etc. this is crap.

Once Obama was in, the witch hunt should have ended.  

Yes, I live in NJ.


[ Parent ]
What's fracturing a basically good thing
The R is no better, but voting out a junky D is not a symptom of Blue America fracturing.  It's just voting out a lame politician.

[ Parent ]
doubt it
I think NJ is an outlier.  Corzine got the state government back to some degree of serious function and efficiency.  But he's not the person, or in the right Party, for the necessary next step in improving function and efficiency- breaking up the worst couple of political machines in the state.  With all their patronage jobs, excessive and undue pensions, hackery, nepotism, bribery, de facto embezzlement, etc.

Christie is a blunt instrument and grossly partisan, but no one doubts he's capable of the political bloodbath it may take.  The problem with him is all the collateral damage that's going to result on the poor and the honest state workers, and the extent to which he's going to overestimate his political mandate- or underestimate how quickly it might crumble when he's done the job they elected him to do.

From what I've seen here in MA, and observed from afar in Philadelphia and Baltimore: when Democratic machines get broken up the Democratic vote increases substantially almost immediately.  When Republican machines get broken (e.g. Long Island, Staten Island) Democratic voting also increases pretty dramatically.


[ Parent ]
Baker
now if only Baker would take these polls, realize he isn't going to beat Barnes, and run for Senate instead.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

It would be nice to at least avoid a runoff, and an expensive primary
I've heard good things about Rob Teilhet, the frontrunner for the Democratic Attorney General nomination, so I don't want Baker to run for re-election.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]

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