Ouch

Clearly it's still fairly early so I'm not ready to write Dodd's obituary just yet, and he deserves some deference for his long and distinguished career, but if he's not well on his way to turn this around by, say, next February or March, then he needs to step aside. I can't imagine he wouldn't, since he'd surely want to end his career with some dignity left, as opposed to get stomped by 10+ points by a tier-2 candidate. The fact that we'd be heavily favored to hold this seat without him has to also factor into his plans; I can't imagine Richard Blumenthal or Rosa DeLauro being down nine points.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 20:31:03 PM UTC

I agree

The only reason this seat is in play is because of Dodd himself. Probably the only Republican in an open seat situation that would hold a lead like this would be Rell.

I do think you underestimate Rob Simmons however. The man did lose re-election, to a very heavily Democratic seat, in a very Democratic year, and only by a tiny amount of votes.

It is still pretty early in this race, but all signs point to Dodd running again, and if that does, he probably doesznt have greater than a 50/50 chance at it.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 20:36:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

sorry

middle paragrah is meant for post below.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 20:37:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Simmons shouldn't have ever ad that much strenght

He donated money to Tom DeLay's legal defense fund, and was the most conservativeof Connecticut's Republicans, despite representi the most democratic district. Plus he took allthe credit from Joe Lieberman, Chris Shays, Jodi Rell, and Chris Dodd for acting like it was his efforts that saved the Groton submarine base, when all of those members had a great deal more power and a greater role in it.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sat Jul 25, 2009 at 07:14:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am pretty confident Dodd will win.

I can't imagine someone who just lost his CT house seat in 2006 beating Dodd in a state with >50% Dem registration.  And you're right - it's still only 2009.  Plenty of time for Dodd to put his problems behind him.  Dems will fall in line just enough for him to win by 5 or so.  

I still am not worried about Dems losing any Senate seats unless Castle jumps in the DE race, which I don't expect.

The House is where it's at for the Republicans in 2010.  And maybe the Governors, but they have a lot to defend there too.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 20:31:27 PM UTC

I disagree

It's very easily imaginable for Dodd to lose to a known former Congressman on the basis of sleazy (or sleazy-looking) ethics. Especially if the economy still sucks.

If Dodd doesn't step aside and his poll numbers don't improve dramatically, it's very important for someone (Blumenthal would be best) to primary him.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 21:07:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]