District: MN-01
Location The southern part of MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Tim Walz (D)
VoteView 190
First elected 2006
2008 margin 63-33 over Brian Davis
2006 margin 53-37
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 51-47
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)
Assessment Safe
District: MN-02
Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative John Kline (R)
VoteView 397
First elected 2002
2008 margin 57-43 over Steve Sarvi
2006 margin 56-40
2004 margin 56-40
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)
Assessment This district is becoming more D, but maybe not quickly enough for 2010. Plus, Kline has raised 333K already.
District: MN-03
Location Suburbs of the twin cities map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Erik Paulsen (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-41 over Ashwin Madia, remainder to David Dillon (INP), who looks pretty progressive.
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-46
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 6th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%), 80th fewest Blacks (3.8%)
Assessment This one looks possible; I think most of the 11% that went to Dillon would go Democratic.
District: MN-04
Location St. Paul and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Betty McCollum (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 77
First elected 2000
2008 margin 69-31 over Ed Matthews
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 57-33
Obama margin 64-32
Bush margin 2004 34-57
Current opponents Ed Matthews
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MN-05
Location map
Cook PVI D + 23
Representative Keith Ellison (D)
VoteView 11
First elected 2006
2008 margin 71-22 over Barb White
2006 margin 56-21
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 74-24
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 40th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MN-06
Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Michelle Bachmann (R)
VoteView 399
First elected 2006
2008 margin 46-43 over El Tinklenberg, remainder to Bob Anderson. It's hard to say who Anderson hurt - he says he's a 'conservative alternative to Bachmann'. Bachmann did run more behind McCain (7 points) than El behind Obama (2 points).
2006 margin 50-42 over John Binkowski
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents El Tinklenburg and Maureen Reed (site being worked on)
Demographics 53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Bachmann is vulnerable. She's insane. But she's already raised $600K. On the other hand, Reed has raised $230K. For a challenger, that's impressive. I have no figures for Tinklenburg.
District: MN-07
Location Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Collin Peterson (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 214
First elected 1990
2008 margin 72-28 over Glenn Menzie
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)
Assessment Safe. OK, Peterson is a very conservative Democrat; still, he wins easily in a Republican district, without using up much money.
District: MN-08
Location map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative James Oberstar (D)
VoteView 107
First elected 1974
2008 margin 68-32 over Michael Cummins
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Safe
District: MS-01
Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Travis Childers (D)
VoteView 239
First elected 2007 (replaced Wicker)
2008 margin 54-44
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)
Assessment Safe. Childers, one of the most conervative Democrats in the House, wins here. Easily.
District: MS-02
Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Bennie Thompson (D)
VoteView 45
First elected 1993
2008 margin 69-31 over Richard Cook
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 58-41
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2%, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)
Assessment Safe.
District: MS-03
Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, to Starkville, in the northeast. Borders both LA and AL map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Gregg Harper (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 63-37 over Joel Gill
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Joel Gill
Demographics 18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%
Assessment Long shot.
District: MS-04
Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Gene Taylor (D)
VoteView 219
First elected 1989
2008 margin 75-25 over John McKay
2006 margin 80-20
2004 margin 64-35
Obama margin 32-67
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 64th poorest (median income = $33K); 21st most Republican for POTUS. I am not sure, but I think this is the largest difference between Obama vote (32%) and a Democrat in the House (75%). At minimum, 43% of people voted for McCain and Taylor.
Assessment Safe.
District: MO-01
Location St Louismap
Cook PVI D + 27
Representative William Lacy Clay
VoteView 39.5
First elected 2000
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 75-23
Obama margin 80-20
Bush margin 2004 75-25
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 24th most Black (49.7%), 27th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MO-02
Location A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Todd Akin (R)
VoteView 412
First elected 2000
2008 margin 62-35 over Bill Haas
2006 margin 61-37
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)
Assessment Long shot
District: MO-03
Location Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Russ Carnahan (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 153
First elected 2004
2008 margin 66-30 over Chris Sander
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin 53-45
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MO-04
Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Ike Skelton (D)
VoteView 208
First elected 1976
2008 margin 66-34 over Jeff Parnell
2006 margin 68-29
2004 margin 66-32
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 62nd most Republican
Assessment Safe
District: MO-05
Location Kansas City and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Emmanuel Cleaver (D)
VoteView 67
First elected 2004
2008 margin 64-36 over Jacob Turk
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 55-42
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 40-60
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MO-06
Location Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Sam Graves (R)
VoteView 382
First elected 2000
2008 margin 59-37 over Kay Barnes
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-35
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Barnes looked like a strong candidate; that she got less than 40% is not a good sign.
District: MO-07
Location map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Roy Blunt (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 35-63
Bush margin 2004 67-32
Current opponents There are no confirmed Democrats, but several confirmed Republicans running in this strongly R district (see the wiki
Demographics 86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%), 31st most Republican
Assessment This looks like a long shot for any Democrat
District: MO-08
Location Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative JoAnn Emerson (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 265
First elected 1996
2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Allen
2006 margin 72-26
2004 margin 72-27
Obama margin 36-62
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 51st most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: MO-09
Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Blaine Lutekemeyer (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 50-47 over Judy Baker
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 31st most rural (54.2%)
Assessment Not impossible, but if we couldn't win it as an open seat, it's going to be tough to win against an incumbent
District: MT-AL
Location Whole state map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Denny Rehberg (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 304
First elected 2000
2008 margin 64-32 over John Driscoll
2006 margin 61-36
2004 margin 65-34
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 39-59
Current opponents Dennis McDonald and Tyler Gernant
Demographics 68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)
Assessment Rehberg is popular, but Obama got 47% here. |
