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NRCC Expands Patriot Program by 15

by: James L.

Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 1:41 AM EDT

One of the new initiatives over at the NRCC under Pete Sessions' watch has been the creation of its "Patriot Program", a Frontline-like fundraising effort to shore up the most vulnerable Republicans in the House. The first round was launched in May, and now the NRCC is adding 15 new names to the effort. Roll Call has the dirt, but here are the targeted district in sortable chart form:

Incumbent	District	PVI	2008 Margin
Mike Rogers	AL-03	R+9	6%
Mary Bono Mack	CA-45	R+3	14%
Bill Posey	FL-15	R+6	11%
Tom Rooney	FL-16	R+5	20%
Mario Diaz-Balart	FL-25	R+5	6%
Lynn Jenkins	KS-02	R+9	5%
John Fleming	LA-04	R+11	<1%
Bill Cassidy	LA-06	R+10	8%
Michele Bachmann	MN-06	R+7	3%
Blaine Luetkemeyer	MO-09	R+9	3%
Lee Terry	NE-02	R+6	4%
Scott Garrett	NJ-05	R+7	14%
Dean Heller	NV-02	R+5	11%
Charlie Dent	PA-15	D+2	18%
Cynthia Lummis	WY-AL	R+20	10%

It's a bit of a weird list, one that's a mixture of incumbents in real danger (Bachmann, Terry, Dent) and more than a few names who I don't expect will receive serious challenges this cycle (Garrett, Jenkins, the Louisiana twins, and Luetkemeyer) or anytime soon (Lummis). While the first batch of Patriot participants came predominantly from Obama districts, the opposite is true for this second round. Only Bono Mack, Terry, and Dent occupy districts that Obama won (though McCain barely won NV-02). Amusingly, birther nutcase Bill Posey finds his way onto the list; you may remember Posey as the guy whom the DCCC could find no warm body to run against in 2008, other than Mike Gravel fan Stephen Blythe.

Also interesting is who ain't on the list for the second time in a row: Bill Young (FL-10) and Mike Castle (DE-AL). Both are facing strong challengers (though Charlie Justice has some work to do), and while Castle admits that a re-election bid is unlikely, the geriatric Young's exclusion seems more telling. Or is the NRCC perhaps hedging its bets?

James L. :: NRCC Expands Patriot Program by 15

Tags: FL-10, Patriot Program, NRCC, (All Tags)

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NRCC Expands Patriot Program by 15 | 19 comments

Maybe they are more interested

in people who will be around for a while?

by: plf515 @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 11:18:16 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Also notably excluded,

Jean Schmidt

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

State Rep. Todd Book. He is from Ohio's 89th district. According to his Wiki he has been elected since 2003. "His district encompasses all of Scioto County, the Western Half of Lawrence County and the Eastern Half of Adams County." It would be interesting to see how liberal or conservative that would make his district. Either way, Book faces a primary against 2008 independant candidate David Krikorian.

Ted Strickland endorsed Book today too

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 11:43:31 AM CDT

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Probably rather conservative

since McCain won all three counties comfortably. But probably favors Dems locally. I don't know much about Brooks but he's definately better than a retread like Krikorian or Wulsin. And Schmidt only got 45% of the vote in 2008 so he may have a chance.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)

by: Menhen @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 11:51:34 AM CDT

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Apart from DE-AL, FL-10, and OH-02

here are some other endangered Republicans who were not patriotic enough to be part of the Patriot Program. The most surprising to me are AK-AL and TX-10.

AK-AL-Young - No challenger yet.

AZ-3-Shadegg - No challenger yet.

CA-4-McClintock - No challenger yet.

CA-26-Dreier - Obama won this district by 4. Businessman Russ Warner, who held Dreier to 53% in 2008 (with help from a third party candidate), is back for more.

CA-46-Rohrabacher - Obama lost this district by only 2. No challenger yet.

CA-48-Campbell - Obama narrowly won this district. Decent challenge from former Irvine Mayor Beth Krom.

FL-13-Buchanan - Decent challenge from former Bradenton City Councilor James Golden.

IA-4-Latham - Obama won this district by 8. No challenger yet.

IL-6-Roskam - Obama won this district by 13. No challenger yet.

IN-03-Souder - No challenger yet.

OH-12-Tiberi - Obama won this district by 7. No challenger yet.

PA-18-Murphy - No challenger yet.

SC-1-Brown - Decent challenge from former Manitowac County Board Supervisor Robert Dobbs. Brown seems as likely as not to step aside or lose a primary, which should only improve Republican chances.

TX-10-McCaul - Businessman Jack McDonald has an exploratory committee and is raising a tremendous amount of money.

VA-10-Wolf - Obama won this district by 7. No challenger yet.

by: spiderdem @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 12:10:28 PM CDT

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You do realize...

That Manitowoc County is in Wisconsin, right?

by: James L. @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 12:35:27 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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I do now.

I learned everything I know about Dobbs from scanning the article below, which strangely does not mention the Wisconsin-ness of Manitowoc County, although it contains vague clues that Dobbs is from outside of SC.

http://www.htrnews.com/article...

Please don't hurt me James L.

by: spiderdem @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 13:30:10 PM CDT

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Hehe

It's okay -- you were the victim of shoddy journalism! These guys sound like better candidates, though:

On the Democratic side, state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis, former state Rep. Robert Barber and Iraq war veteran Robert Burton of Mount Pleasant may run along with Dobbs.

by: James L. @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 13:40:18 PM CDT

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Young in danger?

If he didn't lose in 2008 while under a legal cloud, he is in no danger unless actually convicted and imprisoned.

by: Pan @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 15:38:42 PM CDT

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It's all relative.

These are all major longshots beyond the 25 Patriot Program members. I would not bet on any Republican outsider of the Patriot Program losing, including Young. Still after winning by declining margins over recent cycles, I would expect Young to be at least a second-tier target.

by: spiderdem @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 15:58:03 PM CDT

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Third tier

If Bachmann is second-tier (and I think she is), Young is third tier. Maybe the DCCC considers Bachmann first-tier. If they do, I hope the Democratic candidate is absolutely GREAT. That may be the only way they might have a decent chance of winning that district. I think Alaska-AL is almost definitely a lost cause for some time to come.

by: Pan @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 16:11:56 PM CDT

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I think that is why he is still listed

The possibility remains of that happening.

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 15:58:43 PM CDT

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Do they know something we don't?

Dent, Terry, Bachmann and Bono Mack maybe the rest are in absolutely no danger of going blue any time soon.

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 12:53:19 PM CDT

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Most are just freshman and sophomores.

Much like the DCCC's frontline program.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 13:17:38 PM CDT

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Diaz-Balart

will face the fight of his life if Miami Mayor Manny Diaz steps up to the plate.

The others seem unlikely. Rooney would have been interesting if State Sen. Dave Aronberg had taken him on, but he's not.

by: spiderdem @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 13:38:12 PM CDT

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Dent

On the contrary, I think Dent is in real trouble now. Mayor Callahan of Bethlehem seems like a great recruit. I also think Tarryl Clark in MN-06 might just be the candidate to send Bachmann packing. She'll have to be given a more favorable district if she does, though.

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 17:07:54 PM CDT

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I think that he ment

That Dent, Terry, Bachmann, and Bono Mack are the only ones on that list who are vulnerable

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)

by: Menhen @ Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 00:01:16 AM CDT

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I did

Missed out the comma.

by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 10:15:45 AM CDT

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Okay

I looked at the list again, though, and I see more vulnerable Californians and people like Tiberi and Roskam who may be in trouble. Of course, we need candidates in some of these races, which we don't have.

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 14:07:58 PM CDT

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